In the run-up to the parliamentary elections scheduled for June 2026, Armenian political life is entering a crucial phase. The ruling Civil Contract party, led by Nikol Pashinyan, now in its seventh year in power, is preparing for a campaign that will unfold under unique circumstances: for the first time in decades outside the “Karabakh context,” yet amid growing public apathy and internal party friction. This is both a liberation and a challenge. The country must formulate new national priorities at a moment where the old worldview has collapsed and the new one has not yet taken shape.
In this regard, one may assume that a fundamental ideological shift will be a key element of the Civil Contract’s election campaign. Whereas Pashinyan’s dominant theme in previous elections was “preserving Armenian Karabakh and protecting the right of Armenians to self-determination,” the emphasis has now shifted to a “peace agenda,” effectively removing the Karabakh issue from the list of priorities.
This reversal is a direct consequence of the events of autumn 2023, which ended with Azerbaijan regaining control over Nagorno-Karabakh. In recent speeches, Pashinyan has increasingly appealed to the concept of the ‘sovereignty and independence’ of modern Armenia, contrasting it with the ‘imperial ambitions’ of prior years. This theme is being presented as evidence of the chosen policy’s effectiveness.
Based on an analysis of current official statements, Pashinyan will emphasize the slogan, “The state budget is our shared family budget,” in the socio-economic section of the campaign. This metaphor is intended to create a sense of common interests between the government and the people. The key points of this idea can be found in government statements:
- An increase in state budget revenues by 253.4 billion drams (8.9%) in 2026
- Introduction of a universal health-insurance system, with citizens fully exempt from related expenses in 2026
- Allocation of 55 billion drams for housing construction and for solving the problems of compatriots in Karabakh
- Development of a cashless compensation system for pensioners’ expenses, raising the rate to 20% from the current 12%
- Completion of the “300 schools, 500 kindergartens” program in 2026
Particular attention will be paid to the problem of poverty, which Pashinyan himself acknowledges remains high (23%). The reasons cited will be the “dilapidated state of schools” and the deprivation of children’s “right to quality education,” which will lay the groundwork for promises of large-scale educational reforms.
However, despite the prime minister’s confident statements about future victory in the elections, analysis of the current situation reveals deep structural weaknesses in his chosen course. A key drawback causing growing public discontent is the government’s aggressive rhetoric and actions against the Armenian Apostolic Church (AAC), compounded by a general decline in trust toward the authorities. Ignoring all moral norms, the government continues to publish materials discrediting the church and, worst of all, is using the defrocked priest, Father Aram Asatryan, to implement a plan to divide the church internally, including speculation about his potential candidacy for Catholicos.
Moreover, Pashinyan is actively using subordinate administrative resources to put pressure on the opposition. The arrests of Bagrat Galstanyan, Mikael Adzhapakhyan, Samvel Karapetyan, Vardan Gukasyan, as well as the mysterious murder of opposition community leader Volodya Grigoryan in Parakar directly point to the authoritarian nature of the prime minister’s team, which cannot guarantee its party’s victory in the elections by legal means.
Against this backdrop, the policy documents of Civil Contract — which traditionally contain statements about developing close ties with the European Union, commitment to democracy and Armenia’s European integration — appear highly ironic. The Armenian government has already announced the creation of a “Department of European Integration” within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This step signals the intention to make European integration one of the pillars of the election program.
It is noteworthy that European non-governmental organizations are already providing full support to Pashinyan and his team in their bid to boost electoral potential. Armenian media has reported on close cooperation between the government and Equal Rights and Independent Media (ERIM), which considers it necessary to achieve Pashinyan’s “victory” in his confrontation with the AAC.
Moreover, ERIM organized an informational attack on the church, distributing a recording of a telephone conversation between Archbishop Nathan Hovhannisyan and priest Aghan Yernjakyan through government resources. Thus, a foreign organization designed to strengthen civil society is contributing to its division, together with the government.
Given the recent experience of the election campaign in Moldova — where ERIM actively supported the government of Maia Sandu — one may conclude that a similar scenario awaits the parliamentary elections in Armenia. One of the main arguments of the Moldovan government was that if the party lost its majority in parliament, the country would face security threats from unfriendly countries such as Russia. In the case of Armenia, the prime minister has already begun to voice very similar thoughts, stating that if the Civil Contract party fails in the upcoming elections, the country will face a new round of conflict with Azerbaijan. This is a clear case of fear-mongering and outright blackmail of voters who are tired of conflict.
Another parallel tool is exerting pressure on the opposition by using administrative resources. In Moldova, shortly before the elections, a number of opposition parties were barred from participating, and the number of polling stations was reduced in regions where the ruling party might not have been able to secure the number of votes needed to win. In turn, the Civil Contract party initiated changes to Armenia’s Electoral Code: the threshold for parties was lowered from 5% to 4%, while for two- and three-party alliances, it was raised to 8% and for associations of four or more parties to 10%. These new rules artificially hinder the formation of broad coalitions capable of challenging Civil Contract and push parties to compete in elections individually, making them more vulnerable.
Unfortunately, the Civil Contract party, led by the prime minister and supported by the European Union, continues to divide society. A significant number of Armenian citizens are unwilling to oppose this course — or, even more alarmingly, support it. Meanwhile, another segment of the Armenian population continues to demonstrate its rejection of the new “ideology” — which seeks to sever the link between the concepts of “Armenianness” and faith, freedom and choice, power and security.
The outcome of the election campaign will determine not only the fate of Pashinyan and his party, but also the future direction of Armenian statehood — its place between the past and the future.
The outcome of election will determine actually if there will be Armenia in the future or not!!
Could someone please enlighten me as to when Armenia ever had “imperial ambitions”???
Joanna Hadeen, I do not claim expertise of our history to let you know when and at what point Armenians have had imperial ambitions for conquest and domination. But I can cite Baruyr Sevag, who claimed, “If we have conquered”, it would have been “with our books”; and “if we dominated” it would have “with our skills”.
That’s pretty much what I thought, too. Thank you for your response.
@Ioanna Hadeen
By “imperial ambitions”, Pashinyan obviously means Artsakh, because it was not “de jure” part of the Republic of Armenia and not even officially recognized by Armenia. Calling Artsakh “imperial ambitions”, is an insult to the people of Artsakh, to the Armenian nation and to Armenian history, since it was an Armenian homeland for three millennia and which was forever lost under his premiership. When he visited Artsakh in 2019, he uttered the words “Արցախը Հայաստան է և վերջ” (“Artsakh is Armenia and that’s it”). What a U-turn by him!
During the reign of king Tigran the Great (Մեծն Տիգրան in Armenian) in the 1st century BCE (95 to 55 BC) when he built a large empire that rivaled Rome and Persia. The borders of the kingdom of Armenia extended from the Caspian Sea in the east to the Mediterranean Sea in the west. At its peak, the empire included parts of what is now eastern Turkey, northern Iran, and the Caucasus region, such as Caucasian Albania. It also controlled areas in Syria, Mesopotamia, and the Levant, as well as parts of Cappadocia.
Opposing streams in Armenian society – in Armenia and in the Diaspora, have always existed. But I don’t think that Armenia will split into two hostile camps, because Pashinyan has become overwhelmingly unpopular and in the Armenian Diaspora more so. His die-hard supporters, whether in Armenia or in the Diaspora, are a very small minority. Since Pashinyan has no chance of winning an election fairly and squarely anymore after the last elections in 2021, he will (have to) resort to undemocratic measures, including neutralizing the opposition, bribery, vote rigging, etc, to stay in power. If that indeed becomes the case, expect a showdown between the Armenian public and him.
Hi Davo, could you please stop using the term: “Karabakh”, instead use Artsakh, and Stepanakert. As far as I know, Armenia has a history of several millennia, but the Turk invaders arrived in Caucuses around 800 years ago and about 600 years ago the name Karabakh or Karabagh was introduced. You, and for that matter the others, by using the term “Karabakh” instead of Artsakh, you legitimize Turk’s claim on Artsakh and are not helping the Armenian cause!?
Not “could” but “will”.
Pashinyan has no real large following and support among the population anymore, considering his dismal ratings in the polls. In July 2025, just 17 percent voiced support for Pashinyan/Civil Contract. He is certifiably unpopular and his unpopularity is not enough to cause a split in Armenian society, though he is certainly trying to sow the seeds of division in Armenian society, as part of his divide-and-rule tactics to stay in power. One doesn’t need to be a political expert or a clairvoyant to predict, that tensions will rise the closer the elections approach, and mayhem will occur if he rigs the election in 2026. I hope I am not mistaken about a possible split in Armenia, because a polarized Armenia is what Pashinyan wants and needs in order to stay in power and amass more power.
The author, Mr. Davo Barseghyan, made the following valid criticisms about the negative role played by ERIM:
“Thus, a foreign organization designed to strengthen civil society is contributing to its division, together with the government.
An important fact is that this same organization will implement the ProElect project during the parliamentary elections in Armenia, which is intended to counter misinformation and protect participants from various types of electoral manipulation. This fact indicates that Equal Rights and Independent Media, under the guise of an independent organization, will be used by Pashinyan as a weapon to discredit his opponents.”
A visit to the website of ERIM reveals the key missions pursued by the French NGO:
“ERIM promotes a community of human rights supporters and advocates united by shared values. We seek to support human rights activists and organisations so that they can better serve their communities and better advocate for their rights. Our actions include promoting the rights of women, minorities and to combat discrimination against lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and intersex persons. We also work to strengthen international human rights support coordination in France.”
Who finances the activities of ERIM?
On a long list of donors you will find the following names:
- National Endowment for Democracy (NED)
– Open Society Foundations (OSF) or George Soros
– The UK CSSF
– DRL Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor
– USAID
No one has scrutinized the role of NGOs more extensively than Prof. F. William Engdahl. He was born in Minneapolis, grew up in Texas, and pursued an academic career at Princeton University, followed by a graduate study in comparative economics at Stockholm University, where he worked as a lecturer and investigative journalist focused on US and European NGOs and their clandestine activities worldwide. For the last 30 years, Prof. Engdahl has been living in Germany where he wrote and published a book titled “Geheimakte NGOs’“ (Secret File NGOs).
According to Prof. Engdahl, “During the Reagan Presidency very damaging scandals were becoming public about CIA dirty operations around the world. Chile, Iran, Guatemala, the top secret MK-Ultra project, the student movement during the Vietnam War to name just a few. To take the spotlight away from them, CIA Director Bill Casey proposed to Reagan creating “private” NGOs,…doing what the CIA did, but privately.
The money was often channeled via USAID of the State Department to hide its origin. Every major regime attack by the US Government since then including the Solidarnosc in Poland, the Yeltsin CIA-backed Russia coup, the 2004 Ukraine Orange Revolution, the 2008 Tibet riots, the Arab Spring of 2011 to today—all have been done by this group of very select ‘democracy’ NGOs.”
It is a public knowledge that, at a point where Pashinyan’s newspaper Haykakan Zhamanak (Հայկական Ժամանակ) was edging close to bankruptcy in the late 1990s, The National Endowment for Democracy (NED) on behalf of the CIA channelled more than $200,000 over a period of several years to sustain the operations of Nikol’s newspaper. For more details watch the following interview:
“Soft-power: Spreading democracy or demagoguery?” Novelty with Levon Baronian
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6ynzUyAO-c
What about the British NGO known as CSSF?
It is a the British outlet of what the MI6 cannot do openly and must imp;ement privately. It is managed collectively by various UK government departments, primarily the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), and reports to the National Security Council (NSC) where MI6 has a major say in the decision making process, especially when issues at stake address foreign conflicts, pro-British governments’ stability, and security challenges overseas that pose a threat to UK national interests.
CSSF operates globally, and delivers close to 90 programs in over 70 countries, mostly covering activities such as security and justice sector reform, counter-terrorism, and provision of non-lethal equipment. On April 01, 2024 The CSSF was succeeded by the UK Integrated Security Fund (ISF).
What else The UK is doing to enhance Pashinyan’s chances of winning the June 2026 Elections?
Last week a historic announcement was made by The British Embassy in Yerevan. For the first time since the independence of Armenia, British Army officer, Major Thomas Shorland Ball, was appointed as the first resident Defence Attaché to Armenia. His boss, British Minister of State for Defence Vernon Coaker indicated that Major Ball’s duties will include the following responsibilities, without excluding additional future duties:
Defense-sector reforms, personnel training, military education, and cybersecurity meaning neutralizing any attempt made by Russia to use electronic means to undermine Pashinayn’s chances of scoring a major success during the elections of June 2026.
Major Ball will rely heavily on JTRIG-the Joint Threat Research Intelligence Group, which is a branch of the British spy agency GCHQ-Government Communications Headquarters, the UK’s signals intelligence agency, that runs missions similar to the NSA or The Canadian CSE.
Publicly available documents indicate that JTRIG’s primary mission in Armenia will be totally focused on undermining Russian influence by discrediting any and every group or individual who opposes the warped policies of the “Supreme Ruler” of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan.
What kind of measures will be mobilized by JTRIG to undermine Russian anticipated meddling in Armenian elections of June 2026?
- “Persuasive Communication” such as releasing on YouTube videos designed to discredit, promote distrust, dissuade, deter, delay and disrupt pro-Russian productions surfacing on YouTube.
– Setting up on all social platforms, fake or real paid groups/forums that monitor and discredit discussions favoring opposition groups in Armenia, from The Armenian Apostolic Church, to the smallest Armenian political party that has less than 50 members within its ranks.
– Sending spoof e-mails and text messages from fake persons mimicking real opposition political figures and accusing them of being pro-Russian agents trying to impose the Kremlin’s agenda on Pashinyan’s government.
– Using online resources to establish websites that convey inaccurate information designed to disrupt, delay, deceive, discredit, deter and degrade opposition claims that Armenia has become a one-man rule authoritarian country.
– Interrupting filtering, deleting, creating, or altering the content of communications circulating within the ranks of Armenian opposition groups.
– Launching Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks to shut down websites, especially the ones conveying to the public the views of the Armenian opposition parties.
– Malware Deployment: releasing custom-made viruses to paralyze opposition computer networks.
-Releasing anonymously fake AI doctored photos that will compromise opposition figures without the presence of any electronic crumbs that will tie the activity to a pro-Pashinyan groups or institutions.
The technical jargon for all the operations mentioned above includes names such as:
UNDERPASS, SLIPSTREAM, GESTATOR, SILVERLORD, SPRING BISHOP, CHANGELING, and and and…
In the end we are puzzled and forced to confront the following questions:
What is the difference between Russian intervention in the elections of June 2026 and US-Anglo-French interference pursued in the name of a “Noble Lie” that claims to support the authoritarian regime of a “False Prophet” from Ijevan called Nikol Pashinyan?
Why do we have to condemn Russia’s meddling in Armenia’s elections, but adopt a very tolerant attitude vis-a-vis French-Anglo-US interventions in Armenia’s elections?
https://artsakhtheinadequateresponse.blogspot.com/2025/12/we-denounce-russian-meddling-in-2026.html
Between now and June 2026, every Armenian must read and memorize the following dire warning of Octavia Butler:
“Choose your leaders with wisdom and forethought. To be led by a coward is to be controlled by all that the coward fears. To be led by a fool is to be led by the opportunists who control the fool. To be led by a thief is to offer up your most precious treasures to be stolen. To be led by a liar is to ask to be lied to. To be led by a tyrant is to sell yourself and those you love into slavery.”
If you extend Pashinyan’s stay in The Office of The Prime Minister of Armenia beyond June 2026, you will be selling yourself and those you love into slavery.