Armenia faces a critical choice in Nagorno Karabakh
April 2022 was marked by significant developments around the settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. When Russia launched a “special military operation” in Ukraine on February 24, it seemed that all other post-Soviet conflicts would enter “silent mode,” as no one would care about Nagorno Karabakh, Abkhazia, South Ossetia or Transnistria. However, this was not the case, at least for Nagorno Karabakh. On April 6, 2022, the European Union organized an Armenia–Azerbaijan summit in Brussels. President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan agreed to form a border demarcation/delimitation commission until the end of April and take concrete steps to start peace talks. The issue of border delimitation and demarcation also was among key priorities during the November 2021 Sochi meeting facilitated by Russian President Putin. However, despite the signature of the trilateral statement, no tangible moves have been made. After returning from Brussels, PM Pashinyan made a landmark speech in the Armenian Parliament. He stated that the international community offers Armenia to “reduce the threshold on Karabakh status,” which, if translated from the diplomatic language, means that Armenia should agree to see Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan with some level of autonomy. Pashinyan also argued that Armenia should sign the peace treaty with Azerbaijan as soon as possible and reiterated that Armenia accepts the five principles of the peace treaty shared by Azerbaijan. The critical message of those principles is the recognition of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, including Nagorno Karabakh, which goes in line with the idea “to reduce the threshold of status for Karabakh.”
The April 6 meeting in Brussels revealed the EU, and probably the US, approach to the settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. Armenia abandons its demand that Nagorno Karabakh will never be a part of Azerbaijan, while the West convinces President Aliyev to abandon his rhetoric that Nagorno Karabakh does not exist. As a mutual compromise, Armenia and Azerbaijan agree on Karabakh’s autonomy within Azerbaijan. No details are available regarding the borders of that autonomy (should it include the former Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Region within its 1988 Soviet borders or only the territories currently under the protection of the Russian peacekeepers). There is uncertainty regarding the essence of autonomy (should it be a political-territorial unit, resembling the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic within Azerbaijan, or only some sort of cultural autonomy in line with the Council of Europe Framework Convention for the Protection of National Minorities).
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I am not convinced of any predictions made in this article, because there is no evidence of who said what. Pashinyan the gigantic inept liar claiming “the west said…” means nothing. How do we know it is not Russia behind all this “the west said this and wants that”? We see all of Russia’s policies unfolding in the region.
However the interesting part was… “but Russia cannot prevent Azerbaijan from launching an attack”.
Really??
So Russia cannot make SIMPLE STATEMENTS, like…
*In case of attack on Artsakh we will recognize the sovereignty of Artsakh*…?
or
*In case of attack on Armenia we will recognize our treaty obligations and join forces with Armenia and Azerbaijan will pay for all damages*…?
And you can also appreciate that the fake 2020 war would NEVER have happened with these simple statements, correct? Let’s just remember for a minute how “Mother Russia” absolutely didn’t give a sh*t what the “international community” thought when it invaded Georgia, recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia as nations, seized Crimea, destabilized eastern Ukraine and now invaded it in its entirety with full force… except that when it was time for Armenians and Armenia’s security and prosperity, Russia instead played the “we cannot help Armenia because Artsakh is not recognized” bullsh*t card.
One would think that Armenians would have learned all the Russian/Turk tricks after a century, instead we keep falling into the same Russian hole over and over and… thanking Russia for SUPPOSEDLY getting us out of it. We truly are a pathetic lot.
Very succinct analysis which makes much sense. Nicely explained.
Is it in Armenia’s interest to sign a treaty at this stage? Why some insists for treaty before 9th of May? and Why Armenia shall resist? Iran is there to Support Armenia, and prevent coercion of Armenia by your Eastern and Western neighbors. Armenia has the support of your Northern and Southern neighbors. Iran will intervene at a moment notice to support Armenia. We are Locked and Loaded. Forces and equipment are positioned and ready to cross the border and restore the balance as required.
We just need the right PM for that. Persians have been our oldest neighbours. It is common sense to join forces with them. But then the West will really get pissed off!
Name one good thing that Pashinyan has achieved for Armenia and Artsakh? Just one? There isn’t any. The few choices now left Armenia are a direct result of the recent massive losses all attributed to the incompetence of one man; Pashinyan. Lets start by asking why during the war he didn’t mobilize the Armenian army? Was it on purpose? Of course it was. And supposedly he will now decide Armenia’s and Artsakh’s future? Just WOW! Hes the enemy within.
Pashinyan has forced you to open your eyes to the realities on the ground. No more delusions of believing that Armenia can remain in a state of perpetual conflict and have peace and prosperity at the same time. Mobilizing the army at that late stage was too little too late. He was dealing with the hand left to him by previous administrations. Strategic concessions and international recognition of adjusted borders should have been finalized at time of Armenia’s military ascendancy over its neighbor.