I had thought and hoped that I would never have to write another article under this moniker again, but, unsurprisingly, the events of the past month and a half have necessitated this outpouring of anguish.
We live in an age where a slogan is accepted as encapsulating an issue so thoroughly as to be deeply meaningful and profound. These slogans always contain slivers of truth, which is why they get repeated so often as to be viewed as inherently true. A deeper and more nuanced analysis will often leave quite a different impression. While in the current crisis there are many such slogans bandied about that infuriate me, the one that is particularly egregious is that given the current circumstances, what else could be done. It is an uncomfortable revelation to learn that just maybe you have been led down a path, purposefully or through ineptitude, that would lead to the feeling of no other option existing.
While there is enough blame to go around for the treacherous agreement the Prime Minister has negotiated in complete secrecy and now signed, it appears he is unwilling or incapable of accepting any of it. Yet, he was in the position to have the greatest impact on the actions over the last two and a half years that got us to this disastrous place. We look to the past to better prepare for the future; but, it should not be an effort in futility. Unfortunately, it seems we have not learned and continue to remain ignorant of our past to the detriment of our future.
The current horror can be traced to the 1994 ceasefire agreement. In those heady days of success on the battlefield, the sole strategic benefit of the ceasefire for Armenians was that Artsakh was a party to the agreement. Too much importance was placed on this and not enough on formal recognition of Artsakh by Azerbaijan. We still may have gotten here, but at least there would have been greater diplomatic tools available to a formally recognized Republic of Artsakh. Some will argue that Russia would not allow it at the time, which may or may not be true, yet it remains that today under similar circumstances the one with the military momentum pressed on, ignoring ceasefire after ceasefire.
As has been seen in this latest round of fighting, you do not win wars by stopping before the enemy capitulates and Armenia did just that in 1994. The warning signs were immediately apparent for all to see. Azerbaijan’s position hardened in negotiation and we still did not initiate a military response. In addition, Azerbaijan was working out the oil deals that would lead to the money used to fund the current war, and this could not have happened without a cessation of the hostilities of the first war. Thus, the foundation was laid, and a solid foundation it was: build wealth, strengthen the military, agree to nothing, prolong negotiations, etc. And we removed our strongest weapon, the military advantage we had on the ground. Unsurprisingly given the above, domestically, by the end of that year, the President of Armenia outlawed all Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) activity in Armenia.
Perhaps understanding the fatal flaw in the 1994 agreement, by 1997, the position had changed so much that President Ter Petrosian openly talked about the need for Armenians to compromise and that neither Artsakh independence nor unification with Armenia were realistic. A year later he would be forced to resign. Yet there was no turning back the clock. Over the next 20 years, while the negotiating strength of Armenia was reduced, at least one aspect remained: close ties were maintained with Russian leadership. The price for the military security guaranteed by those relations was steep, an autocratic and corrupt local regime. Nonetheless, Artsakh’s security was maintained, albeit with its international status still undefined. Armenians comforted themselves in the growing silent acknowledgement of Artsakh being Armenian and the growth of the Republic of Artsakh as an independent and democratic state.
Prior regimes, as well as the current regime, share the blame for not preparing militarily for the day when the status quo was no longer sustainable. Those that criminally removed our manufacturing capability and ignored our intellectual assets should be held responsible. Armenia’s precarious situation surrounded by enemies makes the first priority of any government the security of our borders. Over at least the last five years, this was not done. Neither was action taken as the enemy amassed troops and equipment on our border. Other countries in similar situations do not wait to be attacked by the enemy on their terms; they preemptively take the necessary action. Again, this was not done.
The timing of this war was perfectly orchestrated by Turkey and Azerbaijan. It placed Russia and Iran in the uncomfortable position of having to take sides, something neither desired to do. In addition, a distracted and disinterested US was unwilling to take the necessary actions to curtail Turkish aggression, if the US even has that ability anymore. In the end, as it was 100 years ago, it was today; the only military guarantor of Armenia is Russia.
Pashinyan came to power in 2018 with the promise of democratic reform and the end of corruption in Armenia, both worthwhile and seemingly lofty goals at the time. While some would view him as successful in these efforts, others might look beyond the superficial to identify some cracks. First, the criminal cases brought against prior political leaders under the premise of fighting corruption were not made universally. Instead, one can view the targets as being dictated by political consolidation and a personal vendetta by Pashinyan and not a search for justice. Political leadership that Pashinyan had a previous relationship with seemed immune from such corruption probes. The waffling between claims that no more oligarchs exist, and then they do, only served to highlight the political nature of these efforts and not the judicial righteousness that would have been necessary to instill confidence in all citizens.
Worse, these efforts served to alienate Russia, something Pashinyan should have been more cautious about given his track record of rhetoric which only served to heighten Russia’s concern. Pashinyan was against signing on to the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union and openly stated the structure of Russian-Armenian relations as being problematic in the context of Armenian sovereignty. While after coming to power, he quickly shifted positions on these issues, nonetheless the damage was done. To be fair, not all Russian angst with Pashinyan was of his doing; some of it was attributable to coming to power under a popular movement ushering in greater democracy. Russia views neither in a favorable light.
We must meet this challenge today and prepare for the inevitable future as well.
What we have seen in the last few days is that deals were brokered by Turkey and Russia before this war was even begun. The full extent of these deals most likely will never be known nor all the causes which led Russia down this path of selling out Armenia and Artsakh. While history may have taught us that in times of crisis Armenians will be left to their own fate, it also should have taught us to prolong diplomatically that day as long as possible to allow for preparation. Pashinyan, from the very beginning of his term, identified a lack of military preparedness to defend the borders of Armenia and Artsakh, though it is not clear what meaningful steps were taken to rectify that situation over the last two plus years. However, understanding this should have made diplomacy even more important to forestall the day of reckoning. Is this not what Azerbaijan did for the last 25 years?
So, now the Armenian people are being presented with a fait accompli, without any say or role in those decisions. The scenario of futility, hopelessness and overwhelming superior adversaries is meant to demoralize us into accepting a result certain parties in Armenia have been willing to accept since day one. It is hard to believe though that even they could have envisioned how bad the terms would be for the great economic promise always held before us as the bait. If this comes to pass, Armenia will be weakened significantly with barriers making it even harder to recover from and equality even more unachievable.
Pashinyan still does not see options, or maybe he is unwilling to accept the options that do remain. To his credit, under similar circumstances, Ter Petrosyan stepped down for the sake of the Armenian nation and now it is time for Pashinyan to do so as well, for the future of the Armenian people. Letting this agreement stand will set us back decades, maybe irreparably. History has shown that Azerbaijan and Turkey will not be satisfied with this agreement. Quite the contrary; it will embolden them for even harsher future demands. We must meet this challenge today and prepare for the inevitable future as well.
Today, as is typical, there is the drumbeat of unity. When people speak of unity, what they really mean is for everyone to be united around their views. That is not how unity works. You do not unite behind a failed policy for the sake of unity. For over a month, the Armenian people worldwide have been united behind a common just cause. It is not simply enough today to sloganeer unity; it must be built on a truly unifying policy, not on defeatism or futility. If we are to unite, it should be against this agreement. The very future of our people demands it.
George Aghjayan
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A very thoughtful assessment. We must prepare vaguely worded aspects of this “agreement” and the unwritten concerns. You are correct . Unity is superficial in the absence of a unifying theme or mission.
A purely defensive effort suggests a lack of will to take it to the aggressors. On the diplomatic front our hardline shortened the window ….playing into Aliyev’s hand. Our strategy was to stand up their uncompromising positions….Lots to do but we need to start on the same page.
This was the first well written article that I’ve read since the war stopped.
You raise great points with valid arguments without sounding immature like most articles I’ve read. A lot of concerns though.
At the end, like you suggested, it comes down to: Can we be united?
From the behavior of the recent days, I doubt it would happen anytime soon.
I was devastated too when I heard about the agreement. But that doesn’t justify the behavior of the public during the last few days. While the Azeris are celebrating, we’re busy finger pointing each other while arguing who should be in power!!! Something’s not right with this behavior. The PM’s unpopular decision should have been debated differently than breaking into parliament and rioting.
Whether this agreement is modified or not, I hope we learn from this experience and truly unite…
Disclaimer: I’m unfortunately an ignorant in Armenian politics and the parties involved.
Here are some facts on why this “war” was pre-planned before it even started and was a blatant traitorous assault on Armenia by the lying “Armenian government”, Russia, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Al-Qaeda terrorists, acting in unison and as a single group to violate Armenia’s sovereignty to eventually bring the nation to full redundancy and destruction:
1. “We are mobilizing the nation”.
(That fast and so suddenly, before important facts come out? I thought Artsakh had it’s own army? So you pretended that the “whole nation was going to war”. Got it.)
2. “We got enough people, we are turning away volunteers!”
(But then how did we “lose the war” if we never even fought it?)
3. No recognition of Free Artsakh by Armenia for the entire 40+ days.
(Previous lies: “In case of aggression by Azerbaijan we will immediately recognize Artsakh!” Ah, I see. The lack of recognition by Armenia was for the sake of “giving peace a chance” – so now WHAT IS THERE TO TALK ABOUT????).
4. “We can apply to CSTO if we need but no need”.
(Uh huh – the war must have been going so good, you had everything under control, that’s why Armenian airspace was constantly violated, and you have absolutely no need for any specialized equipment or defense, oh but you definitely need Russian “peacekeepers” to occupy Artsakh!).
5. No military reaction from Armenia 40 days.
(But but but, you mobilized the whole country! And we didn’t need extra recruits! And we have iskanders! And we have advanced planes we got at amazing discounts!).
6. No match between what the Azeris, the Artsakh “president” and the army was saying: Aliyev: we liberated Shushi Nov 8. The “president”: Azeris entered Nov 5 and by 7 we completely lost it”. Army: “we are still in Shushi and the only Azeris here are dead”.
7. Signature of defeat suddenly without President Sarkisian knowing.
(Sarkisian read the “defeat” in the news. Really? This probably doesn’t even happen in a banana republic).
8. Signature of defeat suddenly in secret without Parliament.
(But but but Nikolik brought “democracy”! He fought corruption! This is it? Using dictatorial, corrupt methods huh?
9. Russian “peacekeepers” suddenly appear, out of nowhere.
(Same tactic like in Crimea, such plans take some time to prepare and implement, the announcement can be done in one hour of course.
10. Winter is upon Artsakh and drones will no longer have a high value.
(Oh no! That means “Armenia lost the war! Quick Nikolik! Sign these papers!”)
Not only was this a pre-planned assault on Armenia before this phony “war”, but the plan seems to go back two decades, with Kocharyan’s “Meghri Plan”. Look for an article called “Paul Goble is for Real”.
If Armenians want a country, a large-scale government purge must take place, a draft implemented, diaspora volunteer units invited and a full scale invasion of Azerbaijan must be launched to end this nightmare once and for all, and probably even Georgia needs to pay a price.
If not, we don’t have a country, and the people should strike a deal with Russia to hand everything over and migrate to their country of choice. I hear Antalya has some wonderful beaches. That was the intention of “Mother Russia” for the past century anyway: “An Armenia without Armenians”.
Good analysis Zartir. The fact that the full might of the Armenian Armed Forces was not utilised (iskander missiles not fired), volunteers were held back, civilians were told to flee (which didn’t occur to as great an extent in the first NK war) seems to indicate that this was a pre-planned defeat to populate Artsakh with Turks. Sushi was known as a fortress city that was impenetrable, but coincidentally fell to Azeris on their national flag day. Armenians must also be able to see Russians without rose-tinted glasses as ‘saviours’ and ‘protectors’ of the Christian Armenians. Ironically, a Russophile Armenian will probably reply to this comment advising that Russia did nothing wrong.
Agreed. Especially #5…I never saw any Armenian counter military offensive ever. Never. The supposed guarantor of Artsakhs security? Never saw the Armenian minister of defense in all of this. Not once. In fact the president of Artsakh claimed that Armenian special ops forces refused to fight up front against a few Azeri troops when he asked them too. They Refused. 1400 total dead in this war and yes many wounded. But Pashinyan claimed that 25K troops were in danger and so he had to sign a this ruin document giveaway? How is that possible?? That Spenakart had no protection? What does that even mean? the capital had no protection? Just unbelievable. Artsakh was left to defend itself. Im convinced of that. Armenia never used any of it real weaponry. Pashinyan is unqualified at best as hes asking Russia, the supposed ally, in the middle of a war if they would give support in case it spills into Armenia proper. In the middle of a war. He needs to go either way. Who has any confidence in him? No one. Now hes tough with his fellow Armenians arresting them.
Turkey had committed genocide against Armenians, Greeks, Assyrians and others. The Nagorno war of 2020 showed unpleasant things we all must study and not allow repetition.
First, Armenia was asleep at the wheel, basking in past military achievements, faith in supposed allies, and ill preparation with archaic military thinking and lack of modern equipment. How could this country be so naive… they had two adversaries side by side and a long history of genocidal tendencies by Turks and Azeries. Greece take note – you could be the next Armenia so dont sit smug.
Second, while really diapointed with the hypocracy of Israel who daily talk about anti-semitism and who regularly remind the world of their genocide, they should have not sullorted Armenian enemies for monetary gain, otherwise it reaffirms that somehow their lives and society is more i.portant than Armenians, Greeks, Assyrians and others who also suffered genocide.Israel had a moral and diplomatic duty to strongly sulport Armenia in every way to show respect for the Armenian people who shared a fateful past history of extermination. Armenia did the right thing by recalling their ambassador to Israel and should cool off relations as a show of protest.
Thirdly, a few notable lessons to take from Israel. Armenia must.. develop their own mitary-industrial complex asap to have top quality weapons and not rely on others. The only freind one had is…. their own shadow. Also Armenia must start conscription for everyone with no exceptions –including females so that the military pool is expanded.In short the heavy militarization of country due to the adversaries must be priority number one. The country must adopt a life or death existential psyche every day by all , young and old Armenians, fighting for one common goal – survival in a hostile neighborhood.
Forth, Armenia must clear house of Soviet military doctrine and decorated older carcasses who send young men to their deaths facing a well equipped modern army. How dare they squander valuable time and lives on past victories and ego stroking while the Azeris and Turks prepared for war and expansion of ethnic cleaning. NEW thinking, progressive,strategists for Armenias future must come from the young in this fast changing world.
Fifth, Armenia must connect more with the diaspora so that they feel their interests and roots are still in Armenia. This means Armenians in media and entertainment must continually promote the suffering Turkey has caused to many nations both in the past and today from Nagkrno, east Mediterranean, Syria, Cyprus and Lybia to name a few. This has been done by Israel by educating the world continuously year by year. Armenian business peoe in diaspora must promote Armenian products worldwide and boycott their enemies made clearly to the world through media. Imvestments should be made for the military industrial complex so that the country is a trully formidable entity to be feared by enemies.
In short, survival for Armenia means giant leaps must be made today so that the Nagorno disaster is never repeated. Never again, should young Armenians be expected to carry war burdens ad in 2020 in Nagorno. Shame on those Armenians who didnt forsee what was coming from their enemies.
We as Armenians must fight the occupiers from Russia helping our enemies. Victory is awaiting us Armenians on the battlefield, we are true warriors, natural born soldiers.
We are the most intelligent and industrious race yet unity has always been the Armenian problem. We rob and steal and oppress our own and CRAVE other’s praises and support. Maybe because of years of Turkish then Russian hegemony and oppression? Very easy to divide and conquer. The past Karabakh “presidents” were robbers and oppressors themselves who yes, kept the status quo, but also caused massive emigration where 1/3 of the population were encouraged to leave, which also weakened the structure, all for self gain. Also you mentioned that Pashinyan made claims that Armenia was militarily vulnerable? I have never heard that ever. In fact all statements were clear that “Armenia can crush any Azeri advancement”. I found Pashinyan neither political nor militarily Savvy. He was an easy weak mark at best and a traitor at worst. Lets be clear: All anti Armenian movements: ie Genocide, Artsakh is financial in nature. The Armenians were victims of genocide because the Zionist Young Turk regime being funded by Rothchild money needed Armenians out for easier transit routes for newly found oil in Baku so they planned on genocide and carried it out via a “nationalistic” excuse by Turkish and Kurdish forces. No surprise that today Israel doesn’t recognize the AG because of the supposed alienating of the Turks? As if they care about anything or anyone. It seems ironically that now the Turks/Azeri cry the same song 100 years later saying that Armenia is an energy threat.
Point #9 in this useless dangerous Pashinyan agreement was a clear path from Nakhichevan to Azerbaijan. That means they plan on annexing Siunik as well.. That simple. Turks will never allow gain for Armenia and will eventually take that over reducing Armenia itself.
Where to from here?
WE HAVE TO BE OUR OWN SUPPORT. That simple. Rely upon ourselves. Protect ourselves Instill justice ourselves.
1. Pashinyan needs to be removed. With a treasonous inept obtuse useless war leader that capitulated and set Armenia back for generations to come I seriously doubt he will have any confidence or support from anyone. I hear he is currently hiding in the US embassy as was reported from AP.
2. Next leader needs to make it clear that this war isn’t over. Just like the Azeris did for the last 30 years. That Artsakh is ancient Armenian lands that the Azeris stole and will be retaken..and that the Turks still need to pay for the genocide itself squatting on 7 eastern Armenian districts.. Call this a Cease fire and that all agreements are temporary via the desire and will of the Armenians from all over the world to ignore this dangerous document.
3. Spend all resources on the Armenian military. All of it. Be prepared to truly be independent. Russia, basically being screw light, will provide us with cheaper modern military hardware so we cant alienate them totally. Russia BTW needs Armenia to the extent that it cant afford Turks total taking over under its belly. The USA is no Ally at all as its foreign policy is Zionist run who are our true enemies and will always be. Never forget that.
4. DIASPORA ARMY UNITS NOW. I have been saying this for years. Imagine another 40k-60k troops trained and ready in these situations to join and defend and RETAKE OUR ANCIENT LANDS? Imagine the real resources from all over the world that would pour in when diaspora kids are on the front lines? Also many would stay after training and service to repopulate Armenia. ITS A WIN WIN WIN. This is ignored by all Armenian leaders. All of them
4. Clandestine nuclear program. Don’t be scared. We have nuclear technology and need to utilize it to use to destroy all things Turkish and Azeri in the future. That simple. Israel has 200 nuclear war heads with technology given by France and NO ONE SAYS A WORD.
These are truly dark sad days for Armenia but WE ALL ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS DAY. ALL OF US. And Im tired of it..
Precisely!!!!!
Couldn’t have said it any better!!!!
Diaspora kids on the front lines? Are you ready to send your children or grandchildren to the frontlines? If so, great! Unfortunately, we have sissies in the diaspora who talk tough, but will not go to Armenia to die. I am of the opinion that if you are an Armenian who does not live in Armenia, you either move there or stay quiet.
This guy is 100% correct
At janeeg.. Armenia has NO program for diaspora army units. non what so ever. All they want is money from the diaspora but no input otherwise.. And yes I would send my kids to train and join the Armenian military. Why not? This should have been done not as a last resort after the war starts but built up during peace time over the last decades. Its a must for the future.
For weeks we’ve been hearing propaganda that we were repulsing Azeri advances. It was a lie. All lies.
To be honest, I thought the same thing. It was my impression we were stronger and militarily more savvy than our enemies. Sadly, it appears that was all wrong. I would like for someone to explain – in whatever manner they can.
I started becoming suspicious when Aliyev was adamant that he had captured Shushi. He even announced it to the entire Azerbaijani nation. I figured that even with Harutyunyan and Stepanyan’s denials, there was no way Aliyev would have been so confident in announcing it if he wasn’t 100% certain.
This article is totally on point and lays out the situations very clerly, bravo. It seems we were led to believe a lot of hype that was not true (e.g. we blew up over 200+ drones, 500 tanks, etc. My biggest question was ‘If we’re winning and kicking their asses, how could they keep breaking the cease fires and keep coming after us?’ (That didn’t make sense to me)
It seems now that this was was inevitable. If Azeri’s were stockpiling big time weaponry all these years, they were going to attack at some point anyway, regardless of who was in power.
We were sleeping at the wheel. We got comfortable. We took our eyes over priority #1: our protection.
What we need to do is replicate what Israel did with the US, but with Russia.
We need to be tight with a big brother because we’re surrounded by enemies (like Israel is).
Yes you are right on-the-spot, we should use the past to determine the future, but I doughth that the ignorant Pashinyan knows anything about the Armenian History, Politics or our unfortunate past.
A lot of us believed Pashinyan, but never imagined that he would sell our Historical Kingdom of Artsakh to Barbaric Turks, in reality he was not only deceiving us but also working with the KGB members Ter Petrosyan, Kojaryan and Sarkisyan and the big boss KGB head Putin, not to maintain Tatar and Seljuk Turks and their INTERNATIONAL Terorist groups.
We, all of us, Armenians all around the world must unite reject this agreement ASAP.
And then think a solution for our mother land or father land, (“Հայրենիք միայն” ուրիշ ոչ մեկ բան) is not too late at list for our future generations. This is not the first time that Russians and Turks have made their own profitable deals and stoll our Historical Lands and re-shaped the worlds maps.
Իրականուտիւնը այն է պետք է պատրաստվենք, մենք ոչ ներսեն ոչ ալ դուրսեն պատրաստ եինք այս դաճան և ագահների պատերասմին… Մենք բօլօրս պետք է ամբողջովին մեծ չանքեր թափենք հոգիով և նութական «դրամական» ձեվօվ ինջպեսին այդ շուն թուրքերը պատրասվեցին անցիալ 25-30 տարիներու ընթացքին…
Thank you Mr. Aghjayan for shedding a light into the recent events in the war with Azerbaijan. Many of us have the same questions you raise and hopefully we will receive some response from the Armenian leadership. In that spirit, one begs the question as to why such a step Mr. Pashinian could take by signing an agreement affecting the nation and its security without having a national discussion? Armenia is supposed to be a democratic nation.
This was an abominable outcome, but not a fatal one. The glass is half full in that a great many more young lives could have been lost but were not, with a far worse outcome. Given today’s instability of the politics of the entire world let alone the particular region, I’ve felt that no good could come of it. I’m saddened but relieved. Armenians are a courageous people. This conflict wasn’t a test of courage or of moral right; it was a test of political and military power and the outcome was inevitable. We must be resilient and determined in order to endure and must learn how to grow, somehow, despite the realities of the hostile environment. Unquestionably, we need to be smarter than we’ve been in the past for the reason that we’ll never be the bigger or stronger party in any conflict. We have learned how to survive but not to prosper. We must learn how to grow bigger and stronger in order to sustain our identity. There’s no other way. The Jews did it, from far worse circumstances. Why not we?
George’s description of the past 26 years was extremely well presented. But it’s history. Pashinyan did what he thought was prudent based on conditions today. I’m skeptical that he was given any other alternative. We can’t go home again. Armenia is not now and will not in the foreseeable future be capable of winning a war against any of its neighbors. Unquestionably, we need to be smarter than we’ve been in the past for the reason that we’ll never be the bigger or stronger party in any conflict. That subordinate condition will continue until and unless we change in a way that makes us helpful and useful in some way to one or more among those neighbors and preferably, the entire world. Think. What have we done in the past to achieve healthy condition?
First, we have to be smart enough to grow the homeland in some way, any way, especially economically. Armenia is dependent on the kindness of neighbors and will remain so until the country develops a way to grow stronger and more relevant to other sovereigns by being either a producer of more and better goods and services that they wish to buy, or a bigger consumer of goods or services which they wish to sell to us. It’s that simple but, is it possible? I don’t know. How do we do that? I don’t know but Greece and Israel have had that same problem for about a hundred years. Israel succeeded in overcoming its circumstances. Greece hasn’t and probably won’t. None of us here, now, will be around to see whether it will happen. There is and always has been enormous desire for that to occur but there needs to be at least equal energy and motivation. It’s not a condition instilled or encouraged by a socialist culture. Wishing won’t produce the desirable result. Only thinking, planning, strategizing, implementing and executing may, if we’re fortunate. Finally, George said he’s angry. We don’t want or need our leaders to be angry. We want them to be determined, and as cold and calculating as they are, passionate. .
USA sanctions on NORDstream 2 combined with German mandates to end coal and nuclear energy are driving natural gas demand much higher over the coming years. Russia can now get more of its nat gas to Europe through the soon to be built TURKstream pipeline project…..