Opinion
Caucasus rivalries: Iran and Azerbaijan at odds over regional interests
For many analysts, tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan have reached a critical point, with numerous Iranian and regional media outlets warning that armed conflict could become possible if the situation continues to deteriorate. Escalating rhetoric from officials on both sides has steadily fueled these tensions, exemplified by statements from Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev referring to "the more than 40 million Azerbaijanis living in Iran under marginalized conditions.”
From the perspec
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I urge Tehran to closely monitor the Caspian sea rout from Azerbaijan which could attempt an attack from a the Caspian sea to Iranian territory, specifically to access the land road labeled rout 3 from the village of Chalus, south of Tehran and rout 1 from Caravan(?), from the eastern shore where both routes lead directly to Tehran’s district 22. Route 3 from Chalus to Tehran’s District 22 is only 100 km long and quite close as the crow flies.
I believe that Ukraine’s recent attack on an Iranian ship in the area may have been an attempt by Ukraine to show solidarity to Azerbaijan’s interests. Interestingly, Ukraine was told to back off by its allies and apologize for its actions. I believe that the incident may have brought attention to American and Israeli plans to attack Iran clandestinely from the perspective I have outlined above. Once Tehran is taken, the flow of logistics to support the troops becomes more viable and tenable from the Caspian Sea and Azerbaijan support – unless of course they are totally wiped out by Iran.