Armenia’s Mossad moment: Superior intelligence a must
If Armenia is ever going to overcome or neutralize its geopolitical vulnerability and external threats, it must have a superior national intelligence agency.
The history and importance of national intelligence organizations span centuries, evolving from ancient court spies into sophisticated modern agencies that shape global politics, security and power.
In the modern era, national intelligence organizations evoke images of espionage, but their role extends far beyond spies. They are critical in detecting and neutralizing external threats — from foreign invasions to cyberattacks.
Intelligence agencies have a multitude of functions, including providing insights into adversaries’ intentions, aiding diplomacy and military decision-making, tracking networks to prevent attacks, defending critical infrastructure, conducting offensive cyber operations against adversaries, monitoring global financial flows and supporting trade negotiations and technological espionage.
Small states like Israel maintain robust intelligence capabilities, such as Mossad and Shin Bet, renowned for their ability to pre-empt threats and conduct counterterrorism operations. Israel is also a leader in cybersecurity, using both offensive and defensive cyber capabilities to counter threats. Its intelligence effectiveness allows the country not only to respond to threats, but to anticipate and neutralize them, including eliminating leaders of organizations it views as a threat.
Mossad is considered one of the most effective, feared and respected intelligence services in the world, owing to a unique combination of strategic culture, national doctrine, elite human resources and political will.
Its national mission — “Never Again” — guides operations within a security doctrine shaped by existential threats. Mossad’s core objective is to prevent threats before they materialize, operating globally with a deep moral license from the public and its government. The agency has elite intelligence capabilities, known for deep-cover agents, fluent linguists and cultural infiltration skills. Recruitment is highly selective, prioritizing intellect, resilience and adaptability over size or rank.
Mossad collaborates with Israel’s thriving cyber, artificial intelligence and surveillance industries, adopting emerging technologies early and operating hand in glove with the internal intelligence unit, Shin Bet. Like other effective intelligence organizations, its work also overlaps with Israel’s global diplomatic presence.
Armenia faces a similar predicament, surrounded by adversaries in Azerbaijan and Turkey, in a volatile region. Catastrophic intelligence failures in the 2020 and 2023 Artsakh wars highlight the urgent need for Armenia to shift from a reactive, defensive posture to agile, proactive, aggressive and intelligence-led statecraft.
Armenia’s intelligence system is undergoing a transition. Previously, Armenia relied solely on the National Security Service (NSS), which handled both internal and foreign intelligence and was modeled after the Soviet-era KGB. Today, its focus is internal affairs. In 2023, Armenia established the Foreign Intelligence Service (FIS), a civilian agency operating under the direct supervision of the prime minister, marking a departure from the Soviet-style NSS model. The FIS aims to modernize Armenia’s intelligence capabilities, focusing on external threats and aligning more closely with modern intelligence practices.
In November of this year, Armenia took a major step to strengthen national security by approving draft legislation to establish a new foreign counterintelligence unit within the National Security Service (NSS). The move marks an expansion of the country’s intelligence and counterintelligence capabilities.
In a cruel twist of irony, Armenia published its National Security Strategy in July 2020, just two months prior to its defeat in the Artsakh war of September 2020. The ‘National Security Strategy of the Republic of Armenia’ was meant to define the country’s main directions, threats, challenges and prioritize security policy.
It’s blatantly clear that a new strategy and doctrine is required. A critical element will be developing a national intelligence talent pipeline. Armenia is fortunate to have a multilingual population and a strong diaspora to draw from.
The Artsakh war demonstrated that the country can never again be compromised on intelligence. Azerbaijan showed that it had — and has — the upper hand. This is Armenia’s ‘Never Again’ moment.
Sassoon Grigorian is author of “Smart Nation: A Blueprint for Modern Armenia – Second Edition.” This is an amended extract from the book. To read a review of the book, click here.
