Stillborn Peace in Nagorno-Karabakh and the Limits of Official Diplomacy to Resolve the Conflict

In this article we will be referring to the characteristics of internal armed conflict and provide a theoretical framework to better understand why Nagorno-Karabakh (N-K) resists a compromise solution and why official diplomacy or track I diplomacy has not been able to reach a mutually accepted agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Secondly, we will refer to the basic Madrid Principles that are still on the negotiating table to be used as a framework for negotiations and the rhetoric of ‘preparing populations for peace’ that first appeared in December 2018 as a Minsk Group (MG) recommendation to the parties after the Organization for Security and Peace in Europe (OSCE) Ministerial Council meeting in Milan. We will pinpoint the necessity of a multitrack approach to peace relying on interventions by different actors at different levels.

Internal conflict can be defined as conflict that occurs primarily within the borders of a given state. Internal conflict often takes place between the state and an ethnic minority group different from the dominant group. The potent effect of group separation and polarization is significant in the case of ethnic conflicts. Johan Galtung suggests that conflict can be viewed as a triangle, with contradiction (C), attitude (A) and behavior (B) at its vertices. Galtung’s model encompasses both symmetric and asymmetric conflicts. Here the contradiction refers to the underlying conflict situation which includes the actual perceived incompatibility of goals between the disputants. In an asymmetric conflict, as in the case of N-K, the contradiction is framed by the Armenians and Azerbaijanis, their interests and the clash of those interests between them. The clashing interests are at the core of the conflict structure. Similarly, in an asymmetric conflict, the contradiction is framed by both of the disputants, their relationship and the conflict of interest inherent in that relationship. Attitudes include the disputants’ perceptions and misperceptions of each other and of themselves. Attitude formation is undoubtedly the most important factor in conflict. These perceptions can be negative or positive, but in violent conflict as Hugh Miall, Oliver Ramsbotham and Tom Woodhouse explain, disputants ‘tend to develop demeaning stereotypes of each other, and attitudes are often influenced by emotions such as fear, anger, bitterness and hatred.’ Jacob Bercovitch, Victor Kremenyuk and William Zartman explain that attitudes are enduring dispositions, having three important dimensions; the cognitive, the affective and the behavioral. Behavior can include cooperation and coercion and relations indicating conciliation and hostility. This type of behavior is characterized by threats, coercion and destruction and purports to influence the adversary to change, modify or abandon a goal. According to Galtung the three components should be present together in a full conflict. Still, he sees conflict as a dynamic process in which structure, attitudes and behavior are constantly changing and influencing one another. Resolving a conflict apparently involves a set of dynamic changes that include a de-escalation of conflict behavior, a change in attitudes and transforming the relationships of clashing interests that compose the conflict structure.