Regime Change from the Ground Up

Elections Set in Gyumri and Vanadzor

Special for the Armenian Weekly

Following a tense, 14-day renegade takeover of a Yerevan police station, Armenians throughout the world have increasingly been discussing conditions in their fragile republic. While virtually everyone, including the president of the country himself, agrees that radical change is needed, the jury is still out on how to achieve it.

n about one month, there will be elections in 700 local communities throughout country, including Gyumri and Vanadzor, the 2nd and 3rd largest cities respectively, on Oct. 2.
In about one month, there will be elections in 700 local communities throughout country, including Gyumri and Vanadzor, the 2nd and 3rd largest cities respectively, on Oct. 2.

Members of the “Sasna Tsrer” group that carried out the armed siege—most of whom are veterans of the Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabagh/NKR) liberation movement—insist that peaceful methods have run their course. They proclaimed an armed rebellion and called on the masses to join them as their only salvation.

Paradoxically, virtually all of those who expressed support or sympathy toward the armed group disavowed the use of force. Indeed, many protesters took to the streets to prevent violence and to ensure that the police did not harm the gunmen. Armenian political analyst Kevork Ter-Gabrielyan characterized the situation as “schizophrenic,” wherein, “on the one hand, the public cannot justify this type of violent action but, at the same time, they understand the structural violence that caused it, so they can’t help but stand with the group.”

Nevertheless, the narrative that peaceful means have been exhausted in Armenia is widespread. People are gripped with a sense of despair, seeing little hope in making change through legal or political means. In its place we see recurring crises, street protests, and sporadic violence.

This disillusionment may be why much of the latest discourse over making change in the country has excluded any mention of local government elections. In about one month, there will be elections in 700 local communities throughout country, including Gyumri and Vanadzor, the 2nd and 3rd largest cities respectively, on Oct. 2. Yet, most opposition parties, pundits, and onlookers have been curiously silent or indifferent toward the process.

Members of the Sasna Tsrer' group that carried out the armed siege—most of whom are veterans of the Artsakh liberation movement—insist that peaceful methods have run their course.
Members of the Sasna Tsrer’ group that carried out the armed siege—most of whom are veterans of the Artsakh liberation movement—insist that peaceful methods have run their course.

For example, in Vanadzor, the local head of the opposition Heritage Party, Garnik Sahakyan, openly declared that, “For me, the local self-government elections are not serious. I’m in favor of revolutionary struggle.” Although conceding that his party will probably end up participating, he makes it clear that it will just be a formality, admitting that they have serious organizational issues internally.

Likewise, Nikol Pashinyan’s Social Contract Party has had internal challenges in Vanadzor, with its entire Executive Council having disbanded in early June. They apparently were reprimanded for holding talks with other opposition groups regarding the formation of an alliance for the elections. Three of its top members (including the local president) resigned in protest over what they described as an “unhealthy working environment within the party,” likening the conduct of party leaders to that within the ruling Republican Party.

Most of the other oppositional parties have also yet to announce their candidates for the elections. And this in a city where, in the last three elections, the ruling Republican Party didn’t gather more than 30 percent of the vote. Vanadzor is an opposition stronghold—without any substantial opposition presence.

What’s more, the new electoral code mandates a proportional representation system (where voters choose party slates instead of individual candidates) in these major cities, potentially offering opposition parties a higher chance of scoring victories. This will also be an important testing ground for the 2017 parliamentary elections.

Only one opposition group seems to be taking heed to all of this: independent parliamentarian Edmon Marukian’s newly-formed Bright Armenia (Lousavor Hayastan) Party. Many of its active members are young professionals and veterans of the DemEm civic initiative that defeated the government’s pension privatization plan. They are explicitly focusing on organizing from the bottom-up and fielding candidates in local races. Marukian’s brother Krist, a financial professional who lives in Vanadzor, is heading up the party’s list in the coming elections.

Many of the active members of the newly-formed Bright Armenia are young professionals and veterans of the DemEm civic initiative that defeated the government’s pension privatization plan.
Many of the active members of the newly-formed Bright Armenia are young professionals and veterans of the DemEm civic initiative that defeated the government’s pension privatization plan.

In the midst of the “Sasna Tsrer” police station siege, Bright Armenia’s members were involved in the protests, but made it clear that they sought to ensure peace rather than endorse calls for armed rebellion. One of its activists, Davit Khazhakyan, called on demonstrators to channel their indignation into opposition strength at the ballot box. Under the slogan of the “Change Starts Within Us,” he asked rhetorically, “Are you ready to speak with people about their candidates, go door-to-door, oversee electoral stations and achieve victory?”

Sadly, the bottom-up approach of these young activists is only slowly being introduced within Armenia. For years, political figures have mostly gunned for top seats in national office, such as the presidency. They appear every couple of years to topple the government with promises of a brighter future, and when the campaign subsides, the population is left by the wayside, unorganized and disillusioned. In Vanadzor, for example, there are countless foreign-funded NGO’s, opposition-oriented media, and disgruntled citizens but no serious political grassroots organization. The widespread discontent does not materialize into political capital because, quite frankly, the difficult work needed to make that happen has not been done.

Members of the newly-formed Bright Armenia (Lousavor Hayastan) Party.
Members of the newly-formed Bright Armenia (Lousavor Hayastan) Party.

The same is true in Gyumri, an area known for its oppositional sentiment. Currently, the main challenger to the Republican-backed mayor, Samvel Balasanyan, is the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF), whose local list is being headed by Ashot Kurghinyan, a medical doctor and head of the Austrian Children’s Hospital in the city.  The ARF is also concentrating its electoral energies on neighboring smaller towns such as Artik. Most other parties have yet to make their candidates known.

Of course, many critics of the government dismiss the electoral process in Armenia altogether. They insist that nothing can be done because the regime rigs the elections and uses its state resources to tilt the results in its favor. This is certainly true. But, again, part of the blame lies with the fact that the population has been left isolated and unorganized. Those calling for change in the past have put off doing the basic legwork needed to bring about a countervailing power.

Currently, the main challenger to the Republican-backed mayor, Samvel Balasanyan, is the ARF whose local list is being headed by Ashot Kurghinyan, a medical doctor and head of the Austrian Children’s Hospital in the city.
Currently, the main challenger to the Republican-backed mayor, Samvel Balasanyan, is the ARF whose local list is being headed by Ashot Kurghinyan, a medical doctor and head of the Austrian Children’s Hospital in the city.

In addition, recent Armenian history shows that vote rigging can be significantly reduced through the presence of monitors and election observers. In the December referendum on constitutional reforms, virtually all of the polling stations that had a strong observer presence registered a ‘NO’ vote against the government. The rigging took place mostly in areas where observers were not present. Thus, this fatalistic notion that nothing can be done is simply not supported by the facts.

A Bright Armenia campaigner in Vanadzor.
A Bright Armenia campaigner in Vanadzor.

“It is possible to achieve change within any electoral system,” insisted Marukian during a town hall forum on the coming elections in Vanadzor this past March. “If you don’t want to become a member of any political party, you can be part of the Helsinki Assembly monitoring mission and ensure justice in your local district.”

Overcoming defeatist attitudes and failed strategies of the past must certainly become a cornerstone of any effort to make change in Armenia. The idea that peaceful means have been exhausted is simply untrue. Quite the contrary: They have yet to be fully utilized. The norm since Armenia’s independence has been violent outbursts and street demonstrations, while very little has been done in the way of organizing peripheral communities, local electoral politics, or non-violent civic resistance.

Thankfully, there is a new generation of politically active citizens that are drawing lessons from the country’s own history, as well as democratic practices abroad. They are progressive-minded (mostly young) people who are determined not to repeat the same failures of the past. They can be found in social movement circles, regional organizing campaigns, election observation missions, and public forums. Although by no means perfect—and still a minority within the country—it is this burgeoning generation of post-independence youth that are leading the way for a brighter future.

Those concerned with the wellbeing of the population and the country would do well to bolster (in actual deed, not rhetoric) the efforts of these healthy new segments. Fresh minds are needed if we are to avoid the pitfalls of the past and usher in genuine democracy within the country.

Serouj Aprahamian

Serouj Aprahamian

Serouj Aprahamian has always been actively involved in the Armenian community. From 2007-2009, he served as the Capital Gateway Program Director for the Armenian National Committee of America in DC, while obtaining a Master's in International Relations from American University. He also served for three years as the Executive Director of the AYF Western Region and has contributed regularly to the Armenian Weekly, Haytoug, and Asbarez. He is currently a correspondent of the Armenian Weekly in Yerevan.

7 Comments

  1. Opposition groups should establish their oiwn independent tribunals and try corrupt people “in absentia.”
    Then announce the sentences.

  2. Mr aprahamian, once you start calling for “regime change” you open up the door for the west to implement regume change through foreign intervention in the region. Is that honestly what you want?

  3. Any opposition should be constructive. There cannot be too many opposition groups. There could be a consensus among several opposition groups, which by the way would be a very healthy dynamic reformative struggle, with a comprehensive agenda on all fronts, in all ministries. Opposition for the sake of opposition on certain and possibly many issues with no well-defined road map is not to be encouraged nor supported. Diaspora could support the government and all constructive forms of opposition characterized by consensus of priorities. We could then enter the roaster of civilized nations. At this stage leaders of integrity and vision coupled with diplomatic inspiration will be welcome. Sasna Dzrer need balanced leaders characterized by strong will and perseverance. No one can claim that peaceful methods have run their course. Such members have no say in the long process of radical changes.

  4. This is a very interesting and to the point article. However, there are a few points that should be expanded upon.

    Yes, the youth is a lot more active today, than ever before, they are better educated, more Westernized and more motivated and that’s great. I’ve marched with them myself. However, and there is a however, you will notice that the largest and most formidable demonstrations and protests have revolved around money and not necessarily about local or geopolitics. The bus fare increase, the pension tax (contribution or whatever you would like to call it), and the electrical rate increase.

    When it comes to any political or geopolitical issues, the motivation, impetus and incitement is just not there.

    Is there election fraud beyond the view of the monitors, yes, no question about it, however, there is a major problem with the voters before they even get to the voting booth, by accepting a 5000 amd (approx. $10.50) bribe to vote for the Republican Party. The party preys on those that need the money the most, the retired, the unemployed, the poor, the people that are doing menial work. And for those people this money could mean a days pay or more. E.G. The monthly pension for many retire people amounts to maybe 40,000 to 50,000 amd per month ($85 – $105. per month). You can’t completely blame these people for taking that money since it can feed them for at least couple of days.

    When it comes to political activity, yes, you will get the diehards that participate, but the numbers don’t compare to the demonstrations related to finances.

    The sad commentary is that the Hayastansti is a complainer, not a doer. There isn’t anyone that I know, even government workers that have any use for the Armenian government, but all they will do is talk about it. You will not see much action, just a lot of talk.

    In addition, there are so many political parties and candidates from different parties running for the same office, that the opposition vote gets diluted and subsequently, almost by default the ruling party ends up with the majority of votes.

    I hate to say this but the Dashnakstutyun is equally responsible for not being able to create a coalition with other opposition parties.

    In conclusion, you are correct “we need to bolster the efforts of these healthy new segments”. But words without action will do nothing and unfortunately, I do not see any action from anyone, including the ARF in Armenia.

    • Hi Berj, thank you for your comment. You raise some good points.

      On the issue of activists not focusing on geopolitics, I’m not quite sure what issue you have in mind. When the war in Artsakh began in April, for example, it was these same activists who turned Mashtots Park (an area that would’ve been a cafe center if it wasn’t for them) into a hub of donations for the soldiers. You could see the same folks who were at the helm of Electric Yerevan mobilizing the drive for clothing, food, supplies, and other donations for the defense of Artsakh.

      When it comes to external pressure, they are also very clear on their stance. The DemEm movement was, for example, clearly against US/Western backed impositions of neoliberal reform, while the ElectricYerevan movement was against a Russian company hiking up electricity prices. However, neither one let their movement be hijacked by foreign powers. At the Electric Yerevan protests, despite the propaganda we saw in the Western press, they made abundantly clear that this was not a Ukraine-style Maidan movement. I personally saw the likes of Paruyr Hairikian and his group bearing EU flags shamed out of the protest site. They were literally ran out from coming with those flags.

      My point is, they are aware of geopolitical issues but not interested in being used as tools of ANY foreign power. I personally factor that in as one of their major strengths.

      As far as regular people taking bribes, yes that is definitely true. The ruling party preys not only on the poor and feeble but also those with state jobs. Much of Armenian society works for the government, as school teachers, administrators, police officers, etc. The public sector is I believe the largest employer. They are threatened with fear of losing their job if any sort of political change happens. So, in addition, to being bribed, many are scared into voting how they do.

      But the bigger issue is that the masses are UNORGANIZED and ISOLATED. Even if you disagree with the government, it’s very difficult to take a stance and, say, protest if you are by yourself. Contrary to illusion, very few people hit the streets for even this latest round of demonstrations. When you are by yourself, it’s a hard step to take.

      Once there is organization, mobilization, and collective action, however, it becomes easier for people to do the right thing. Just venting or trying to shame people to stand up will not work. Organization is needed. And we are seeing these lessons learned right in front of our eyes.

      I’d like to also add that these are local “Hayastantsis” that are doing this work and learning these lessons. These are not diasporans. They are not foreign-funded NGO’s. And they are not veterans of the Artsakh war or Zinyal Baykar era. They are young people growing up in post-independence Armenia. They are at the forefront of genuine change. We should pay attention to them, and in my opinion, follow their lead.

      “Words without action will do nothing” . . . I couldn’t agree more with this statement. It is up to all of us to look in the mirror and ask what are we DOING. The same principle of organization and collective action (not isolated complaining) applies to all Armenians wherever they reside. The situation is not much different, ironically, in the diaspora. If you are by yourself, not involved in anything, chances are very slight that you will make any difference. if we want to see the country truly improve–and not overrun by the crises, disillusionment, and sporadic violence–we have to find (or create) platforms to get directly involved in.

  5. Thank you Mr. Aprahamian for setting the record straight about all this talk of stuffed ballots. You have identified the correct way to ensure democratic rule in Armenia. We certainly do not need violence, we do not need any coloured revolution, we do not need another Syria, Iraq or Libya. Two of our own policemen killed is too much. I am glad to hear voices of reason such as yours.

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