Armenia’s orchestrated collapse: The grand strategy behind the “peace” plan
What is unfolding in Armenia today is not a peace process but a coordinated disintegration of Armenian statehood—one that has been set in motion by Turkey and Azerbaijan and facilitated by the Pashinyan regime.
This “peace plan” is the South Caucasus theater of the Great Game once fought between the Russian and British empires, now repackaged on NATO’s southern flank through British-Turkish orchestration. Russia is too busy with its own crises to focus on the Caucasus—much like its treatment of Syria—relegating Armenia as a side item rather than an actor at the negotiating table. The ruling party is systematically shedding Armenia’s bargaining chips and strategic levers, with the nation asleep at the wheel.
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s rise to power in 2018 was widely hailed as a democratic revolution, but to the trained eye, it bore the hallmarks of an externally coordinated regime change. Pashinyan and his inner circle—including First Lady Anna Hakobyan—were selected for their moral malleability, ideological detachment from Armenian national identity, and susceptibility to pressure, blackmail and foreign influence.
The operation followed a deliberate script. After the Pashinyan regime came to power, a two-year honeymoon period afforded civil society the opportunity to celebrate new “freedoms” and enjoy the post-Velvet euphoria, while deep-state actors usurped the legislative and judiciary branches and removed seasoned military leadership in preparation for the 2020 Artsakh War—a war designed and orchestrated to fail.
5,000 predominantly volunteer, patriotic Armenians were sacrificed, with thousands more wounded or disabled, and Artsakh was ceded to the enemy. This brutal culling served a dual purpose: losing Artsakh as a gambit and eliminating the population segment most likely to resist future betrayals. In a meeting with the families of fallen soldiers, Pashinyan callously told them that they should worry about their other children. Can anyone imagine such a response from a U.S. president or any elected official?
Since then, the nation has been hollowed out—militarily, morally and demographically. Armenia’s will to resist has been systematically dismantled, its citizens surviving in a state of despair. The so-called “peace” deal is the culmination of this process. It offers Armenia nothing—no security guarantees, no economic relief, no restoration of Artsakh or national dignity.
The crown jewel of this campaign is Syunik, the southern corridor linking Armenia to Iran. Following the Israeli strike on Iran—which was, by many assessments, coordinated with the West—the regional balance of power has shifted, giving Azerbaijan a freer hand. To put this in perspective, Armenia’s mineral wealth is staggering, with total reserves valued at over $4 trillion—a remarkable figure for a country of its size.
The Syunik province alone hosts the Kajaran copper-molybdenum deposit, one of the largest in the world, contributing to Armenia’s 6.2 billion tons of copper and molybdenum, worth approximately $1.04 billion. Additionally, five copper-pyrite deposits across the country hold over 935,600 tons of copper, valued at $11.42 billion.
The country is also rich in high-value minerals such as scandium (worth over $5 million per ton), vanadium, lead and zinc. Unused iron ore deposits are estimated at more than $2.5 trillion, with six known sites—four already studied. Armenia’s eight proven gold deposits—including the major field at Sotk—and six polymetallic reserves could yield for another 300 years, annually producing vast quantities of industrial and precious metals, including 670 kilograms of gold, 70 tons of silver and 5,300 tons of lead.
The total value of gold and polymetallic reserves alone surpasses $19.4 billion, underlining the immense strategic and economic significance of Syunik and the broader region. In essence, whoever controls Syunik controls Armenia’s economic survival.
Now, even Armenia’s infrastructure is being liquidated. The arrest of Samvel Karapetyan—the Russian-Armenian tycoon who owns the Electric Networks of Armenia and Tashir Pizza—is a tactical move reportedly to seize his company under the guise of nationalization, only to resell it to Turkey’s Aksa Energy, part of Kazanci Holding. Khachatur Sukiasyan, known as “Grzo,” a key oligarch tied to the regime, is reportedly brokering the deal and lining up mineral assets like the Kajaran molybdenum plant for Turkish acquisition.
Meanwhile, Turkey plays both aggressor and “concerned neighbor,” pressuring Armenia to shut down its nuclear power plant under fabricated safety concerns. If the national grid were nationalized and sold to a Turkish entity, it is likely they would remove the Metsamor power plant from the energy grid for “safety” concerns—effectively bringing the nation to its knees.
Azerbaijan already controls Armenia’s digital umbilical cord—the internet cable connecting it to the world. With Armenia’s power grid, mines and water resources falling into Turkish and Azeri hands, the final blow will be the annexation of Syunik and the regions east of Lake Van. The result: Armenia will become a landlocked pseudo-state— nonviable, surrounded by hostile powers and cut off from strategic partners.
Even the Armenian Apostolic Church and figures such as Karapetyan are under attack—not just as individuals, but as the symbols of national continuity and resistance. Their persecution is both a distraction and a preparation for the final phase of Armenia’s geopolitical reprogramming and the removal of the last red lines.
The charade is being exported abroad. In Washington, Armenian parliamentarians from Pashinyan’s ruling party met with U.S. lawmakers to champion the ‘benefits’ of the peace plan. This is not diplomacy—it’s political theater, staging Armenia’s final surrender for both foreign consumption and internal sedation.
The world is watching a carefully sequenced demolition of an ancient nation. Unless there is an immediate and fundamental reversal—one that restores national sovereignty and halts the sell-off of Armenia’s land, infrastructure and identity—the country will not survive as an independent republic. Armenia will become a Turkish vilayet in everything but name.
The checkmate is near—but the game is not yet over.
Beautifully written. Unfortunate how things have transpired. Hopefully the people can wake up and revolt over these turkish agents.
Let’s never forget that Mr. Pashinyan represents the democratic will of the Armenian people. Armenia is now a “Westernized” country with “European” aspirations. Always remember that. Therefore, let’s please show the duly-elected leader of Armenia some respect, as he is the Western-financed and Turkish-led political activist a clear majority of our people, both in the homeland and in the diaspora, wanted to lead Armenia not only in 2018 but also in 2020, 2021 and 2023. In 2024, Bishop Bagratyan finally proved that the Armenian people don’t want change. So be it. Let’s respect the “democratic” wish of the “people”. If you believe in “people power”, “democracy”, “westernization” and “the American way”, stop your constant complaining and start supporting Mr. Pashinyan in his historic mission to turn Armenia into a Turkish/Azeri Vilayet.
PS: I would really like to see Russia cut-off all financial, economic and energy ties with Armenia (the only thing keeping the remote, landlocked and impoverished nation afloat) and take its troops stationed on Armenia’s border with Turkey (the only thing keeping NATO-member Turkey out of Armenia) back to Russia. Sometimes you just have to let a terminally ill patient die (a la Kevorkian)…
Those who defend Pashinyan and his policies, including his negotiations (capitulations) with Azerbaijan and Turkey, should be ashamed of themselves, but they won’t, because they have not an ounce of shame – let alone any patriotism. The nightmare scenarios facing Armenia have become true stage by stage: 1.) the disastrous Second Artsakh War, 2.) the destruction of Artsakh and the ethnic cleansing of all Armenians, 3.) the occupation of 200 square kilometers of Armenian territory by Azerbaijan – while Pashinyan handed territory to Azerbaijan without a quid pro quo; next is the possible cession of southern Syunik (the so-called Zangezur Corridor) to Azerbaijan and the dispossesion of Armenians living there, and becoming a neo-colony of Azerbaijan and Turkey, which the author and countless of other people warned for many years. That all these calamities happened under the totally inept, reckless and downright traitorous Pashinyan, is a double calamity. It is not only external factors, which are the biggest threats facing Armenia and which cause the greatest harm, internal factors, like electing and re-electing a traitorous leader like Pashinyan, caused an even greater harm to Armenia – because he enabled this. In other countries, a fraction of the disasters, dangers and humiliations Armenia is going through, would have caused a popular uprising or a coup d’état to save the nation from the brink – because Armenia is a nation on the brink, just like it was between 1915-1921.
According to ChatGPT, you’re claims of Armenia’s mineral wealth are fake news. You clearly have an agenda and your fake article shows how pathetic and biased you are. You do realize BS claims can easily be fact check in a matter of seconds right?
Be better than this tashnak ruski agent.
@Steve
You are trolling and babbling nonsense. Just type in “Armenia” and “mineral” in the search engine. Armenia has significant mineral deposits – while not huge, significant nevertheless. They include significant deposits of copper, molybdenum and gold, as well as smaller deposits of zinc, lead and silver. The mineral industry is one of the biggest sectors of the Armenian economy and makes up 30% of Armenia’s exports. The mineral industry is very important for a small and poor economy like Armenia’s, and the exports prop up the economy. And by using “Tashnak” as a swear word, you are either an Azeri, a Turkish, or a Pashinyan troll. Now shoo off.
Unfortunately, as long as a nation relies on the East (Russia), or the West (US/EU) to save it, the future will not be good. I hope going forward the citizens will stop worshipping either super power and will take pride in their own homeland to be built by themselves.
Brilliantly written and very up to the point. Thank you. Unfortunately Armenian people have a short memory , they forgot where Pashinyan came from were oblivious to the the obvious fact that he was bound to be a poppet in the hands of external forces trying to dismantle Armenian statehood. The consequences will be dire unless Armenian people wake up from a deep slumber and delusion.
This article paints a picture of Armenia not as a sovereign nation navigating extraordinary geopolitical challenges, but as a puppet state being methodically dismantled by shadowy forces. It speaks in the language of alarmism, conspiracy, and fatalism—deliberately designed to provoke fear, outrage, and despair. But this narrative, while emotionally potent, ultimately fails the tests of logic, truth, and responsibility.
Let’s be clear: Armenia is not dying—it is struggling, yes—but it is also learning, adapting, and making its own choices under immense pressure. To reduce this complex national journey to a simplistic betrayal narrative orchestrated by Turkey, NATO, or “deep-state actors” is not only disingenuous—it is dangerous.
Pashinyan’s Rise Was Democratic, Not Engineered.
The claim that Nikol Pashinyan’s 2018 rise was a foreign-backed regime change erases the genuine frustrations of the Armenian people. The Velvet Revolution was led by civil society and ordinary citizens who were fed up with decades of entrenched corruption and elite impunity. To strip them of agency and cast them as dupes of foreign influence is deeply insulting to the Armenian public. Armenia voted for change. That change has not been perfect—but it was theirs.
Conspiracy Over Substance.
The article leans heavily on emotionally charged but unverifiable claims—suggesting the 2020 Artsakh War was “orchestrated to fail,” that patriotic Armenians were “culled,” and that military losses were somehow planned to silence dissent. This is not serious analysis; it’s a dangerous blend of historical revisionism and conspiracy theory. The war was catastrophic—yes. But it was not a staged sacrifice. It was the result of years of strategic stagnation, regional power shifts, and Azerbaijan’s military build-up. To blame it entirely on Pashinyan is to ignore reality and absolve others—including previous administrations—of responsibility.
National Interest ≠ National Surrender.
The accusation that Pashinyan is “selling off” the country’s infrastructure and identity ignores the realpolitik Armenia is forced to navigate. Armenia has few natural allies willing to back it militarily. Russia’s focus is now elsewhere. Iran is isolated. The West offers words but no weapons. In this context, the Armenian government is trying—perhaps clumsily—to find a survivable path. Peace deals, concessions, economic cooperation—these are not acts of treason, they are the difficult compromises of leadership in a hostile neighborhood.
Weaponizing Mineral Wealth.
The article makes an ominous inventory of Armenia’s mineral riches, implying that the country’s true value lies underground and that foreign actors are salivating to steal it. But let’s be real: Armenia has long struggled to fully capitalize on its natural resources due to corruption, poor governance, and lack of investment. If those assets are to benefit the Armenian people, Armenia needs stable governance, open markets, and stronger institutions—not isolationist paranoia.
Dehumanizing Leadership and Institutions.
The personal attacks on the Prime Minister’s family, on respected entrepreneurs like Samvel Karapetyan, and on the Armenian Apostolic Church are revealing. These aren’t thoughtful critiques of policy—they’re attempts to create villains, to delegitimize democratic institutions and leaders by painting them as traitors or puppets. This toxic rhetoric does not serve Armenia; it fractures it further.
Fear-Mongering Is Not a Strategy.
Talk of Armenia becoming a “Turkish vilayet” is more than inflammatory—it’s defeatist. It frames the entire state as already lost, the game already rigged. But Armenia’s story is not over. Its people are not passive. Civil society is active, debates are ongoing, and elections still matter. The country is at a crossroads—but it is not on autopilot toward extinction.
Final Thought.
The way forward for Armenia is not through apocalyptic storytelling and the scapegoating of leaders or foreign powers—it is through national unity, realism, diplomacy, reform, and resilience. The forces surrounding Armenia are real. So are its problems. But so too are its strengths—its diaspora, its educated youth, its cultural heritage, and yes, its democratic institutions.
The game is not over. But it will only be won if Armenians reject fear and cynicism and choose instead to engage critically, rebuild patiently, and believe again in their own agency.
Very well thought out and articulate response. Thank you. The article, while disguised as patriotism actually speaks the language of fear, of capitulation, and of those whose brand of patriotism is vested in keeping Armenia captive to individual interests and subservient to foreign powers. The fear and the fairy tales served their purpose, but those days are over. The formers had thirty years to craft statehood and failed. What Armenia is experiencing now is the natural growing pains of a forward thinking nation.
Pathetic! Armenians are their own worse enemy! Pashinyan is the worst thing to ever happen to the country! Tell me, where will all the citizens of Armenia go once their country collapses?
Oh nice an entire worst case article presented as inevitable fact even though it’s based on a premise (selling the energy grid & everything else to Turkey) that the government has repeatedly refuted, and for which he offers zero indication is a possibility in the works. Sure, not trusting the government he can just say they are lying, but in that case you could write other articles saying absolutely anything else, too. Please explain the point of this, outside of the obvious one that it’s simply a hit piece meant to mislead diasporans who are typically clueless about the latest news from Armenia and (perhaps thanks to a steady stream of articles like this) are always prone to believing the worst?
By all accounts, Nikol Pashinyan’s administration is an abject failure. At the most fundamental level, the primary responsibility of every national leader is (1) to protect the territorial integrity of the nation from encroachment, and (2) the population from harm. Nikol Pashinyan’s government has failed miserably at both. As such, the “legitimacy” of his government, repeatedly invoked by the psycophants, profiteers and western devotees, enraptured by childish visions of a western oriented Armenia magically relocated into Europe, is a myth with no factual foundation. Even in vaunted western societies, Governments that fail to meet these fundamental obligations of leadership change and are forced to step down before the expiration of their term. The most reliable harbinger of what is to come is what came before. Nikol Pashinyan’s failures since 2018 are a matter of record and to expect future success for Armenia from this failure is dellusional. That said, absolutely nothing good can happen to Armenia with the Pashinyan government at the helm.