Brace yourself for the upcoming “peace agreement”
The so-called “peace agreement” between Armenia and Azerbaijan has been under negotiation for quite some time in utmost secrecy. Only a select few from the ruling party in Armenia have been privy to the negotiations and the changing details, having presented the initial terms to the opposition members in the Armenian parliament during a 15-minute “read-only” session in January 2024. Many points of the agreement have been added and modified since then. One can draw their own conclusions regarding the contents of any negotiation that must be conducted in such secrecy from the people the process is supposed to serve.
The ruling party leaders, including Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan, have adopted a tactical move of dropping hints and floating trial balloons of what’s to come next in order to soften and prepare their audience. The preparations for the “peace process” have been no different. Pashinyan has tried to get ahead of the conversation, claiming during a parliamentary session in May, “Any talk about concessions during the delimitation process is ungrounded. The border of the Republic of Armenia is being reproduced, not created; therefore, any talks about concessions are at least illogical.” He further elaborated, “I would rather call it a success, as for the first time in history, the Republic of Armenia is independently shaping a border through negotiations, thus laying an important cornerstone for further developing sovereignty, statehood and independence.”
The future is here, and the future is bleak. This is a calculated process to turn Armenia into a Turkish vilayet, where Armenian citizens need not be Armenian, as seen in recent changes to educational textbooks, in which we no longer teach Armenian history but the history of Armenia. Armenia stands to gain little in return other than an elusive peace with the two neighbors who have actively participated in destroying Armenia and Armenians.
It takes a special kind of a person to inherit Armenia and Artsakh with secure borders, then go on to deliberately lose Artsakh, give away parts of Armenia proper — allowing enemy soldiers to enter Armenia while ordering the Armed Forces to stand down — and decorate the “generals” who gave up those lands without firing a shot.
Then, Pashinyan declared his heroic efforts to finally “reproduce” Armenia’s borders a success. After the 2020 Artsakh War, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said he would go to Yerevan without firing a shot. Aliyev may be many things, but his words have matched his deeds regarding Armenia and Artsakh, and the realities on the ground are pointing us in that direction.
The “peace process” discussions have revolved around the K38-103/91 map of the 1976 USSR General Staff, which was used to outline the borders of Soviet Armenia with Iran and Turkey, with not-so-clear internal delimitation lines between the Soviet Republics. This map is not in congruence with the current geography, given changes in roads and the addition of the Berkaber reservoir and other features that did not exist in 1976. Using a map meant to delineate external Soviet borders to “reproduce” Armenia’s borders seems odd, especially knowing that Russia refused to share this map with the parties. The U.S. State Department put forward this map to ensure the continuation of the “peace process,” while wielding significant capital and pressure on Armenia to sign an agreement.
The following points from the agreement have been assembled from and corroborated by multiple government sources from representatives of western countries for veracity. The United States has not been forthcoming with any information regarding the “peace process,” as it has been exerting immense pressure on Armenia to sign this agreement before the November elections. Therefore, informing the community of the historic capitulation that will befall the Armenian nation is essential.
- Armenia is to cede more land to Azerbaijan based on the aforementioned 1976 Soviet Union map, regardless of its effects on dismantling Armenian communities that hold deeds to lands and live on those lands.
- There will be a corridor through Syunik that will connect Turkey to Azerbaijan. A non-governmental third party will control the corridor. Think of Blackwater as an example outfit that will take on this role. It is unclear who will pay this third-party non-governmental entity, which will define its operational parameters.
- The Armenian Constitution will be changed to remove any reference to Artsakh. Bear in mind that this will require a referendum to accomplish, should the ruling party adhere to the rules of the land, something with little precedence.
- The depiction of Mount Ararat will be removed from Armenia’s Coat of Arms.
- No references will be made to the Armenian Genocide by Armenia moving forward.
- There will be a cap on military spending by Armenia, which will only have the capacity to procure defensive weapons and systems.
The future is here, and the future is bleak. This is a calculated process to turn Armenia into a Turkish vilayet, where Armenian citizens need not be Armenian, as seen in recent changes to educational textbooks, in which we no longer teach Armenian history but the history of Armenia. Armenia stands to gain little in return other than an elusive peace with the two neighbors who have actively participated in destroying Armenia and Armenians. No discussions of the status of the Armenian POWs and hostages taken from Artsakh have been made a part of this agreement. To add insult to injury, Armenia will withhold its cases against Azerbaijan in international tribunals.
While the Armenian government has been holding secret “negotiations” with two asymmetric enemy nations, the key points of the negotiations have not been communicated with the Armenian nation, which stands to lose the most from this process. Trial balloons from the ruling party to soften the blow do not constitute communication with the population that it purports to lead. It is noteworthy that Armenia has agreed to all points of this deal, yet Azerbaijan has yet to do so, as it continues to exert pressure for more gains.
Ara Nazarian, PhD
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Thanks for the informative article. Information is scant indeed and Pashinyan’s verbal acrobatics are only a cause for skepticism and a harbinger of next losses. What is the reason the US is putting immense pressure on Armenia to make these awful concessions? Why does there seem to be no commensurate ask of Azerbaijan to make concessions? Why is such a one-sided deal, with enormous windfall gains for Azerbaijan, in the interest of the US? Lastly, why isn’t Armenia just walking away from negotiations that seem to offer very little to its self-interest vs the irreparable losses?
THE NEXT QUAGMIRE: Sooner or later, one way or another, the Ukraine war is going to be settled and with its settlement it is likely that South Caucasus front will the next “hotbed”, with three regional powers: Turkey, Iran, and Russia, competing even more fiercely to retain their interests. The U.S. cannot remain uninvolved. The Armenian citizens will have to do what they have to do. Starting from Aram Manougian and Avedis Aharonian (save American mandate of Wilsonian Armenia), to this day, the Armenian leadership has adopted the policy of “no precondition”, that is to say “do not ask and do not tell” policy about the Genocide, and have stated that Armenia has no territorial claim. Retaining those on the its “declaration of Independence” is not only futile; it makes the Armenian leadership, if not every Armenian citizen, betray what it supposedly they advocate. In short, Armenian citizens will have to do what they have to do. Armenia is there to stay and has nowhere else to go. Of course, there is always the possibility for Armenians leave Armenia but from “ardyergir or ardasahman” – Diaspora -support the course the citizens of Armenia advocate by electing those who they entrust to run their country, my ancestral homeland, with their consent.