I feel like we are living through a recurring nightmare. This week, when Armenians across the globe remember the barbaric and unpunished atrocities with prayers for the intercession with our holy sainted martyrs and demand justice for the earthly population of our people, we are drawn back into these horrifying images of another genocide in Artsakh. It is depressing that we are actually speaking to this possibility, yet many feel powerless to alter the dynamics. It is often said that public views are considered naïve as we are constantly reminded by authorities that we “don’t know the whole picture.” Most Armenians disagree with the policy of the Armenian government to abandon the goal of “self-determination” and encourage Artsakh to negotiate directly with the rogue government of Aliyev’s Azerbaijan.
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All this is the result of losing the war in 2020. The victors want their pound of flesh and no less. Pachinian has no choice to collaborate with the enemy until he has some kind of military power behind him at which point he can become more assertive. Relying on Russia or the West is not a realistic option. The diaspora should support him and try to make the world aware of the present situation in Artsakh.
I just spent a few days in Boston, which apparently has the highest Armenian population in the US (although California is the state with the highest Armenian population). I remember in the movie The Promise, how a large number of Armenian children had to move to Massachusetts after the genocide.
You touch on several major issues in your article. As Warren Buffet said “ Only when the tide goes out do you learn who has been swimming naked “ . Today Armenians are naked for several reasons:
1) In the South Caucasus “mutual respect” comes from a barrel of gun and not through “peace agenda”. Apparently Pashinyan did not get Khrimian Hayrig’s memo
2) Destruction of the Armenian army by Azerbaijan during the 44 day war. What else explains the lack of response to Azeri aggression and constant humiliation when Armenia’s own borders are violated? Mismanagement of the war was enough reason for Pashinyan to have resigned except that the opposition only offered more Kocharyan and Sargsyan-like nostalgia. “If we only got back to be on good terms with Russia , everything will be fine ….”. The endemic corruption of those years and braggadocio meant that the army was not fully prepared with the best leadership and technology.
3) Lack of diplomatic support, primarily from Russia but also from the West. Russia pivoted away from Armenia partly because Azerbaijan -Turkey was more important economically and militarily and partly to punish the Velvet revolution. Russia wants Armenia to be a vassal state in union with Belarus and Russia and has little tolerance for democracy. Meanwhile the West has fundamental interests in Azerbaijan (oil, Iran) but none in Armenia
4) Armenian politics is hyper partisan which makes formulation of a rational foreign policy difficult and to build consensus. At least in public, the two sides were “ give back the territories around Karabakh, compromise on Shushi and make peace with Turkey/Azerbaijan “ or “ never give back an inch and we’ll have tea in Baku” . As the 2020 war demonstrated, Armenia’s red lines should have been Hadrut, Shushi , Kelbajar , and Lachin. They constitute the eastern borders with Azerbaijan. Now Armenia’s eastern border is wide open with no military response. The lack of a healthy political culture in Armenia and Diaspora has contributed to divisions in the body politic and this is now being played out during the most critical time in Armenia’s history since 1915. Pashinyan has shown no leadership in healing and bringing different parties together. He seems more comfortable being vindictive and playing the blame game.
5) The failure of the Armenian diaspora, especially in the West. The Diaspora as a community has been underperforming especially in the US. Armenians have been dazzled by the glitz and wealth around them and have not come together to organize. Individually they are more educated and wealthier than their counterparts in the Middle East. But assimilation is happening at an alarming rate, which is masked by new immigrants from Armenia. After being in the West for 100 years, there should be city wide, regional, national and international bodies that represent Armenians with elected leaders and a significant budget. Today there are no elected leaders who speak for the Diaspora to the Armenian government and to other governments.
6) The successful recognition of the Armenian genocide by the US and major European countries was an exception to a general failure to organize. However countries such as India and China remain to do so. Pashinyan has no right to bargain away 1915 and its consequences such as the Kars treaty, which was also signed under duress. The fact that history is repeating itself should give pause to every Armenian who cares with the following question, “What should we do today so that Armenians are not signing treaties under duress in 2123 ?”