Given the geographic proximity of the South Caucasus to Europe, the Middle East, and the former Soviet Union, virtually all developments in those areas have reverberations in Baku, Azerbaijan. Over the course of the past 18 months a new foreign policy doctrine has emerged. This shift was formally codified on Dec. 3, 2014, in a largely unnoticed 50-page Russian language memo penned by Ramiz Mehdiyev—the long-serving chief of President Ilham Aliyev’s Administration—who calls primarily for a distancing from the West because of the latter’s “unfair” criticism of Azerbaijan and “unthankful” attitude for all the sacrifices that Baku has made.
The question is, What will fill in the vacuum caused by the drift away from the West?
Along with the deterioration of relations between the West and Russia, countries near Russia have been caught in the middle. Ukraine is the most vivid example of this phenomenon. Baltic, Eastern European, and South Caucasian states alike are on a heightened alert due to the increased unpredictability and volatility of the geopolitical situation. Uncertainty is exacerbated by the possibility of military/political confrontation that many hoped and assumed was over.
The state of Azerbaijan is not currently under the spotlight but has been affected by regional trends and uncertainty. The leadership in Baku is caught in an environment of heightened security considerations, a rigid foreign policy ideology, faltering economy, post-communist inertia, and creeping authoritarianism—which converge to create increased isolation.
The unresolved Nagorno-Karabagh conflict complicates the security calculus for Baku. Between 1991 and 1994, Nagorno-Karabagh (Artsakh) and Azerbaijan fought a war that resulted in a ceasefire agreement and the inception of the Minsk Process shortly after to try to resolve the frozen conflict. Currently, Armenia—as the security guarantor of the Nagorno-Karabagh Republic—negotiates with Azerbaijan within this mutually-agreed framework.
At the cornerstone of Azerbaijani foreign policy is the desire to maintain sovereignty and independence from any outside power—an ambitious goal in today’s regionalized world. This ideology was inspired by the late Heydar Aliyev, a former Soviet KGB general and half-a-century-long leader of Azerbaijan, whose political platform was based on the idea of ensuring Azerbaijan’s sovereignty through nonalignment, facilitated by profits from hydrocarbon extraction in the Caspian basin.
Although Azerbaijan’s oil and gas reserves are not large in comparative terms (e.g., Azerbaijan cannot supply more than 2 percent of the EU’s gas demand), they provide a sizeable revenue for the government. Aliyev Sr.’s school of thought has been carried forward by his son Ilham Aliyev, who currently serves his third uninterrupted term as president (after amending the constitution to allow him to do that). However, it is becoming increasingly hard to maintain the current foreign policy posture in the face of Azerbaijan’s declining oil production and low global energy prices.
The Aliyev family has been caught in many international scandals over the past decade, earning Ilham Aliyev the title of “Corrupt Person of the Year” in 2013, awarded by the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project. The regime’s so-called “Caviar Diplomacy” has been aimed at softening international criticism. However, recently the international community again became vocal against the regime’s human rights violations and crackdowns on dissidents. President Aliyev has increasingly tightened the screws on media outlets (e.g., banishing Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Voice of America, and BBC) and cracking down on domestic civil society organizations.
The elite in Azerbaijan has developed an increasing sense of abandonment by the West, including within the framework of the Minsk Group co-chairmanship of Russia, France, and the United States within the Nagorno-Karabagh conflict resolution process. It views the West as inherently pro-Armenian. The leadership believes that there is an outright conspiracy plan targeted against Azerbaijan by the Western powers in the form of a “color” revolution, similar to the ones that have occurred elsewhere throughout the region.
Azerbaijan’s economy has suffered in recent times due to its heavy reliance on hydrocarbon exports (and the resulting inability to diversify into other sectors), low oil prices in the world, and rising competition from shale oil and gas. As a result, in February the national currency, the manat, registered a devaluation of more than 30 percent. The fuel running the foreign policy engine has thus shrunk by a third.
Russia’s attempts to reassert regional hegemony, especially within its “near abroad,” have caused uneasiness in Baku. Despite the large-scale military hardware sales by Russia to Azerbaijan, the Aliyev Administration does everything in order not to fall back under the influence of Moscow. Yet, with the Western retrenchment from the region and Azerbaijan’s parallel drift away from the West, Russia will likely be the one “getting the prize.”
Possible Iran-West rapprochement and the resulting expansion of Iranian influence throughout the South Caucasus poses yet another challenge to Azerbaijan, which has historical animosity with Iran. Israel and Azerbaijan have developed a close partnership over the past decade, which has resulted in billions of dollars worth of arms purchases by Azerbaijan and the lease of Azerbaijani territory as a launching pad for Israeli spy drone missions into Iran. A resurgent Iran most likely means trouble for Azerbaijan.
The projected decline of Azerbaijan’s relative regional power and diminished role in energy diversification for the EU caused by competing Russian and other sources of gas further decrease the geopolitical value of the country. Although the profits from the energy sector will continue to come into the country, they are projected to decrease.
Keeping the above-listed and other regional factors in mind, the Azerbaijani leadership has become increasingly paranoid as it watches the various revolutions, uprisings, and conflicts taking place in the region—including the color revolutions and the Arab Spring—fearing that it may be next. In tandem, there is growing anti-Western sentiment among the elites.
The crux of the influential Mehdiyev memo accuses the West of double standards and of preparing a coup against the Aliyev regime. This is a foundational document for the beginning of a new phase of Azerbaijani politics—foreign and domestic—that commenced with the attempt to fully control the media, manage public perception domestically, and curtail the activities of NGOs that do not serve the elite’s socio-political strategies.
Over the past several months an unprecedented crackdown has been underway against Western-sponsored media and civil society organizations, as well as independent domestic actors who are striving for democratic and human rights norms. A new set of laws was passed that significantly restricts freedom of the press and expression. As a consequence, over a hundred political prisoners are currently in jail.
With America’s pivot (or at least feint) to Asia, its disengagement from Afghanistan and Iraq, the rapprochement with Iran, and the shale revolution, the strategic importance of Azerbaijan is likely to continue to decrease for the West. A change in the balance of power may arise in the Caucasus frightening the officials in Baku, who have been so careful to maintain ties with all major regional powers and the West while refraining from allegiances with any one bloc or state. Hence the dilemma, since non-alignment will result in geographic regional isolation from the ongoing integration processes taking place in the East and West.
Trends in international relations shift in irregular patterns. It is difficult to predict any future long-term scenario. Yet, there are a few relatively clear patterns emerging that will likely persist:
- the Azerbaijani elite will continue its consolidation of power around Aliyev and his closest allies;
- Western-sponsored organizations and employees will continue to be rejected from operating within the country, as exemplified with the recent case of a Human Rights Watch employee who was denied access into the country;
- the leadership will attempt to remain non-aligned for as long as it can;
- anti-Western sentiments and jingoism will continue to be propagated.
What does this mean for Artsakh?
- With its recent successful democratic elections, Artsakh authorities and civil society should work to further strengthen the democratic institutions of the republic. Permanent missions abroad, especially in Western countries, may be expanded to further solidify bilateral relations and deepen ties with the Western partners.
- Because of the lack of media freedom in Azerbaijan, the elite can hide its true losses on the line of contact and thus may be more prone to conduct subversive military activities on the ground. Without further intensifying and moving up the spiral of conflict, the Artsakh Defense Army should be prepared to respond appropriately (which it has been thus far). A balance of power is essential in stopping the Azerbaijani elite from restarting the war.
- The authorities in Stepanakert also need to continue their efforts in providing a glimpse of hope to the minorities in Azerbaijan (e.g., the Talysh radio broadcasted from Shushi), who, like Armenians before the liberation movement, are repressed and denied fundamental rights. A democratic Azerbaijan accountable to its people is a more predictable neighbor and negotiator at the talks.
An earlier, different version of this article was published by the European Institute.
Armen Sahakyan
Latest posts by Armen Sahakyan (see all)
- Azerbaijan’s Isolation in Troubled Waters and Implications for Artsakh - June 4, 2015
- Causes and Consequences of the Helicopter Attack, and Baku’s Motives for Escalation - November 14, 2014
- Armenia’s Emerging New Foreign Policy - March 31, 2014
Azerbaijan is a friend of Turkey and is part of the pan-Turkish plan. Recall that Azeris sided with Turks during their genocide campaign against the Armenian Republic during the 1st World War.
As a result, Azeris can never be real friends with Russia. We hope that Russia understands this.
I found this to be a very well written and insightful article. Definitely food for thought. However, let us not lose sight of the realities that Armenia also is moving away from the west and into the Russian orbit; that Armenia also is not stranger to corrupt practices; that Armenia is also no stranger to human rights violations vis-a-vis the status of women.
I would hope Armenia would adopt a more west oriented policy, but I fear it will not.
Armenia needs to stay away from the political West, which is causing death and destruction the world over. And Armenia is a safer country for families than any state in EU.
In other words, you want Armenian officials to stop their crucially important strategic relations with Russia (that which keeps Armenia alive) and start chasing their tail with silly nonsense… No thanks. We Armenians can’t afford making the mistakes made by Georgians, Ukrainians, Syrians and Libyans.
“I would hope Armenia would adopt a more west oriented policy, but I fear it will not.”
I’d like to take a neutral stance on this issue, Bruce, but care to provide reasoning as to why, in your view, Armenia needs to adopt more Western-oriented policy. What are the politico-military, socio-economic, cultural, historical, legal, et al, dividends that the West is tired of offering to Armenia and Armenia stubbornly refuses to take heed of these blessings?
Just lay them out in a plain intelligible manner, e.g. “If Armenia moves away from, as you say, “Russian orbit” and into the West’s orbit, she will get:
1. …
2. …
3. …
4. …
In order not to insult our intelligence, do please refrain from the BS, such as western-style democracy and human rights. Please…
I find it fascinating this discussion about what incline should Armenia take; pro-East or pro-West economically and/or socially? Surely our Armenian leaders along with foreign leaders do not miss a chance to remind us that we share “European culture and values”. Probably it is because we celebrate Christmas and Easter unlike our neighbours. Or maybe it is because of the Byzantine influence when Armenia was portioned between East and West? After all, we are indigenous people from central Anatolia, Asia Minor, and we didn’t walk over from the Balkans; as the Turks pretend, nor do we want to give credit to them by beating the European drums too much.
But putting aside historic facts, do you get the feeling of arriving to a European airport once you’re into Zvartnots terminal, at least before the last expansion? Have you been subject to the pushing and shoving in front of the visa booth or passport control by little old French Armenian (European!) ladies who are eager to “get there” a few seconds before you? I think impatience and lack of respect for queuing makes us closer to hot-blooded Latinos, than average cool Europeans.
During the pre-1915 period, we were used to a large degree by European powers to help break up the Ottoman Empire to their advantage. Our reward was no help during the Genocide, and later nothing in the Lausanne Treaty which gave birth to modern Turkey with no Armenians living in it. No thanks, to European promises. Armenians stand alone with no real friends. Right now, the urgent priority should be a cultural change for our political elite (Ishkhanoutyun): from expecting to be fed by the people through their businesses held while in power; to getting into politics and elected office to feed the people.
I think sharing “European culture and values” doesn’t automatically mean that Armenians become “average cool Europeans”. We aren’t Europeans per se. Never were (maybe to a greater degree during the Cilician Kingdom). Never will be. And, honestly, thank God for that. Were we closer to the European culture throughout our history? Well, certainly, closer than to the Middle Eastern one. Rome, Byzantine, Christendom, Cilician Kingdom, Crusades, even Russia as a gateway to Europe—all testify to that.
And we are not related to a Turkic-invented toponym “central Anatolia”. Eastern Asia Minor is a historically correct toponym which applies to the Armenians as a place of their habitat for millennia and before 1915.
Very interesting article: I wonder if a desperate Baku will “Cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war?”
I do agree that we have problems in Armenia, but I also feel that Armenian diaspora is our greatest strength and will ensure we are promoting democratic values for all race and genders.
Great article, thanks!
Volatility is the issue. Good article and well presented.
The west has never been a friend to Armenia, yet Russia, I assume, is the reason Armenia has not been invaded….it is in the interest of Russia to keep Karabag status as is, in order to have influence on both the Azeri’s and Hyes…….what is to be said of Hrimian Hariks thought on the wooden spoon……
A very well written and intetesting article.Armenia should stay within the Russian orbit and influence.So many countries today have been invaded and are in ruin in the name of democracy.Armenia has been let down by the west politically over and over again and continues to be so,we see that in regards to the acceptance or rejection of the genocide by major western countries in support of Turkey for geopolitical reasons,we also see the failure of the west in the Karabagh recognition which is yet to be resolved after 20 years of limbo.We hope that Armenia does not repeat the mistakes of its past governments by trusting one side,mainly the west,for which a lot was lost.In politics there are no friends,there are only interests.
Bruce you seem to be living in a cocoon ! You want Armenia to adopt a more west oriented policy? Will the West come to Armenia’s aid if Azerbaijan with the help of Israel attacks Armenia? They will not only not help Armenia but they will help Azerbaijan by putting mercenaries at their disposal as they have done before. Russia is our only hope of survival! When will we ever learn this fact . . . .
Exactly. Just like the west came to Georgia’s aid in 2008.
Another well thought out, reasoned article by Mr. Sahakyan: as expected.
I read the European Institute version* also.
It was very rewarding to note that the actual map of Artsakh/NKR appears there also: that’s the way to do it – keep promoting the real/actual to counter the Azerbaijani fake/mythical version.
Also Mr. Sahakyan smartly used ‘Azerbaijani’ vs ‘Azeri’: the latter being promoted by Azerbaijan’s leaders and fakeologists to create a mythical local people that has never existed and does not exist: ‘Azerbaijani’ is more generic/non-specific than ‘Azeri’, so is preferable.
However, “ethnic composition….Azerbaijani” is still problematic: there is no such ethnos as ‘Azerbaijani’. They are Caucasus Turks (originally from East and Central Asia) and other forcibly Turkified indigenous peoples. It is like saying “Ethnic composition of Singapore is x% Singaporian”: no such thing; the city State Singapore’s ethnic composition is Chinese, indigenous Malay, Indians,…
I also have a problem with the 90%, but maybe that can be adjusted/corrected in a future article: hard to find solid census numbers, but minorities such as Talysh account for far more than 10% (….according to their spokesmen**), with Talysh alone accounting for about 20%.
Just the same, overall, an excellent article promoting the truth about the criminal state to wider non-Armenian audiences via a non-Armenian site.
—-
*
http://www.europeaninstitute.org/index.php/ei-blog/258-april-2015/2025-perspective-azerbaijan-s-foreign-policy-shift-and-the-threat-of-isolation-4-30
**
http://www.aysor.am/en/news/2014/04/04/azerbaijan-tolishstan-crimea/
{“For more than two decades, the Azerbaijani authorities have avoided opening Talysh schools and Talysh-language radio and television in the southern regions of Azerbaijan. About 1.5 million Talyshs live in Azerbaijan, although official Baku presents their number as small. Despite the large Talysh population, the Azerbaijani authorities make great efforts to prevent the Talyshs from being part in the country’s population structure: Azerbaijan is trying to annihilate the Talyshs and destroy their culture,” Alikram Hummantov said.}
http://www.armenianow.com/karabakh/45044/armenia_karabakh_radio_talysh
{An estimated 1.8 million ethnic Talyshes live in Azerbaijan today, being one of the major ethnic minority groups in this multiethnic country with an entire population estimated at over 9 million.}
(Bruce // June 4, 2015 at 2:45 pm // )
{“…. Armenia also is moving away from the west and into the Russian orbit;”}
Since her Independence, Armenia has been telling everyone who will listen: there is no Either/Or for Armenia: it is And/And.
Armenia is neither moving away from the West nor moving towards the West. Armenia is neither moving away from Russia nor moving towards Russia.
Armenia has stayed the same course since 1991: National geostrategic security anchor with Russia (necessarily so); trade, commercial, and friendly relations with the West and everybody else that wants it (….Vietnam, China, Arab Emirates, Iraq, Japan, Cyprus, Greece,…..Syria (of course), Lebanon (of course), Iran (of course)….).
Turkey, on the other hand, has been steadily turning Anti-American and Anti-West since Islamist AKP won majority.
Turks are reverting to their traditional Anti-Christian, Anti-Western, Islamist base course, with a Neo-Ottoman twist.
Reverting to their historic UygurOğlar invadonomad roots.
Azerbaijan has been turning virulently Anti-American and Anti-West recently: the criminal terrorists in charge of Baku Khanate are getting desperate, as the ground below their fake state starts shifting.
{“ that Armenia also is not stranger to corrupt practices”}
That Turkey and Turkbaijan are world class leaders in corrupt practices.
Corruption is institutionalized both by the Aliyev Crime Syndicate and the Neo-Ottoman Erdogan Sultanate.
{“ that Armenia is also no stranger to human rights violations vis-a-vis the status of women.”}
That Turkey and Turkbaijan are world class violators of human rights vis-à-vis status of women.
Ask me to provide statistics of how women and girls are (mis)treated in those misogynistic Turkic states.
{“ I would hope Armenia would adopt a more west oriented policy, but I fear it will not.”}
We would hope invadonomad Turks and Turkbaijanis would strike down their nomad yurts and return to Uyguristan, their ancestral homeland. But I fear they will continue illegally squatting on Armenian lands, and continue trying to grab more.
btw Bruce: you keep repeating the same {“Armenia also is moving away from the west”} line at every thread @AW and @Asbarez.
Is that what you were tasked to do by the management, Bruce ?
Great article.
I’d remind everyone here who is so convinced that Russia is Armenia’s best friend (some of you seem to think the Kremlin reads your comments) of their treatment of Hrachya Harutyunyan, or the recent massacre in Gyumri. Short memories around here.
And AR…your metrics for “family safety” would make for interesting reading. You seem to be awarding points for systemic domestic violence and child abandonment. I’ll take the EU any day, thanks.
For the past two hundreds years Armenia and Russia have been in a natural, symbiotic embrace. This will not change now nor will it change for the foreseeable future. Armenia will thus happily remain fully within the Russian orbit, where it naturally belongs. Geographically, politically and culturally Armenia is a Eurasian nation and Armenia’s natural place is under the Russian umbrella and within Eurasian Union and the CSTO. All in all, thank God we have a massive superpower like the Russian Bear that sees Armenia as a geostrategic asset and not a geopolitical obstacle. Armenian Russophobes can only be one of two thing things: Idiots or Western mercenaries.
Good, perceptive and informative article and analysis. also good comments, as usual, by Avery. Harutik is spot on here: Harutik // June 7, 2015 at 2:24 pm.
Vanadzin,
That one particular commentator beneath you (Harutik), with all that intense, fiery Russian nationalism, actually gives the impression of being a member of the Kremlin. By foolishly attempting to convince us that Russia is Armenia’s mother (Mother Russia) as he did before in the past, definitely had “Kremlin” written all over it. This time around, he avoided doing that; however, by attempting to depict Russia as being a very dear and affectionate friend of Armenia, is absolute nonsense. After all, how can that possibly be when Russia goes behind Armenia’s back, and ends up selling four billion dollars worth of military weapons to Armenia’s mortal enemy (Azerbaijan)? Just imagine if a person whom you regarded as being your best friend, were to go behind your back and provide enormous assistance to your mortal enemy. How would you feel? It would certainly be a horrible feeling; and from that day forward, you would most certainly no longer regard that particular person as being any kind of a friend to you.
Furthermore, Russia has never condemned Sultan Aliyev for his terrorist attacks against Armenia and Artsakh. Again, where’s the friendship in all this? This is certainly not a friendship; this is just a partnership, and nothing more. And, in regard to Russia’s military presence on Armenia’s soil, the Russians aren’t defending the citizens of Armenia; they’re only defending their own interests in that particular region of the world, which happens to be within the Republic of Armenia.
No, Yerevanian, Russia is not Armenia’s mother. America is. If only Armenia could rid of Moscow’s long hand, the very next day, I’m sure, the valorous U.S. Army, which is so good at dropping atomic bombs on peaceful populations, will fly to help Armenia by protecting her from Turkey and AzerBEYjan. Not only that, but America and her NATO buddies will stop providing military aid to Turkey. Not only that, but the very next day Mother America will run piping under the Atlantic Ocean to Turkey and from there on to Armenia to supply energy resources to Armenia, preliminarily having pressured the government in Ankara to lift its economic blockade of and open closed borders with Armenia. And on top of all that Mother America will recognize the Armenian Genocide that so many POTUS have so high-mindedly promised and then so graciously jilted.
Genocide reparations would involve taking a first step, and that first step does not start with Turkey in my opinion. My belief is that, before addressing the Turkish issue, we must first take care of its attack-dog to the east. The newly created country by the name of “Azerbaijan” whose single-minded purpose of its formation and subsequent existence from the get-go was to eliminate what was left of Armenia and form a union with Turkey. In this pan-Turkism plan an unobstructed Turkic Islamic continuum would exist from the borders of Europe to the borders of China. Note: the Pakistanis were all for this plan despite being a non-Turkic people, i.e. “Islamic solidarity”, which is the why Pakistan does not recognize Armenia today. (big whoop).
The point is, the futures of Armenia and Azerbaijan seem to be mutually exclusive, i.e. one of them has to go. This is not Armenia’s choice. It is part of the mission that “Azerbaijan” had set out for itself since inception. The Soviet Union merely placed the original plan on hold during its equally repulsive 70 year existence.
Thus as Armenians, our number one priority has to be the neutralization of Azerbaijan as any kind of military power and threat.
And the way to do that is to support the BALKANIZATION of Azerbaijan.
For several of the ethnicities there the ‘identity’ of an ‘Azeri’ was imposed upon them by the Soviet leadership, thus it has no solid ground to stand on. The Talysh, Lezgis, Udis, etc all know this. There are at least half a dozen other groups. In the last war, Talyshistan actually almost materialized, but was put down. If and when the next war erupts, this idea needs to be placed in full gear. As noted in this article, the Talysh radio is a great idea. To me, this is the real path to Genocide Reparations, the first step, to remove all military threats which act on Turkey’s behalf by proxy.
{“ the futures of Armenia and Azerbaijan seem to be mutually exclusive, i.e. one of them has to go”}
You got it brother.
{“ Thus as Armenians, our number one priority has to be the neutralization of Azerbaijan as any kind of military power and threat.”}
Agree 100%.
Great article and great comments.
John,
No, America is certainly not Armenia’s mother, the same way that Russia is not Armenia’s mother.
And, in no way am I advocating for Armenia to discontinue its important partnership with Russia. On the contrary, I would like very much for it to continue. On the other hand, we certainly don’t want this partnership to be based on an extreme lack of equalness, as it’s been from the very beginning, where Russia exploits little Armenia in every possible way, coerces it, and persistently dictates to it what it can and can’t do. And furthermore, instead of unwisely restricting itself to only one big partnership which revolves around Russia, the Republic of Armenia should also develop big partnerships with numerous other countries as well. By doing so, Armenia’s position in the world will elevate so much more than what it currently is.
It’s becoming increasingly embarrassing, really, when certain posters bring up this old as Adam cliché from the days of Armenia’s failed, head-in-the-clouds concept of “complementarity”: “Instead of unwisely restricting itself to only one big partnership which revolves around Russia, the Republic of Armenia should also develop big partnerships with numerous other countries as well”. Dear Sir, the Republic of Armenia has already tried this back in the 1990s and until the Armenian parliament shooting in 1999. This utopian concept never actually was up and running at full capacity, nor has it ever worked as effectively as expected, because for a smaller country it is never possible to complement her relationship with a mightier country with her relationship with another mightier country in equal measure. Complementarity miserably failed as soon as Russia organized herself and regained power after the demise of the Soviet Union. Lack of equality? Yes, ideally, in a fantasy world, we don’t want Armenia-Russia partnership to be based on the lack of equality. But in this predatory world of Realpolitik, what equality can there be between a smaller state and a mightier state? What, you think if America was in Armenia’s close geopolitical proximity Washington would treat her as equal? Don’t make me laugh… You think America is treating Mexico as equal? You think America is treating Latin American countries as equal? You don’t really think that the 1954 Guatemalan coup d’état carried out by the CIA to depose the democratically elected president or the 1961 CIA-sponsored Bay of Pigs Invasion of Cuba or the 2002 Venezuelan coup d’état attempt in which U.S. was accused of being involved—all were one hell of demonstration of equality by the U.S towards its smaller neighbor-states, do you?
What’s rather embarrassing is how certain posters (such as yourself) continuously and desperately try to minimize Russia’s foul treatment of its “dear close friend” (Armenia), by constantly changing the subject of discussion to the wrongdoings of America. It’s also rather embarrassing how you insist that establishing economic partnerships with countries other than Russia is a “utopian concept,” and cannot possibly be effective. That’s actually the kind of garbage that the Kremlin persistently preaches to the Republic of Armenia.
In terms of trying to create economic partnerships with other countries besides Russia, the Republic of Armenia leaderships, both in the past and present, haven’t tried hard enough in this department. A perfect example of this, of course, was the free trade agreement that Serzh Sargsyan enthusiastically pursued with Europe for a number of years that abruptly came to an end in 2013. This would’ve been very beneficial to Armenia’s economy, and it had absolutely nothing to do with joining the European Union. However, in the end, Sargsyan, as usual, allowed himself to be coerced by his Russian master (Putin) into abandoning that free trade agreement with Europe, and furthermore, was coerced into entering Putin’s Eurasian Economic Union, which is absolutely of no benefit to the Republic of Armenia.
Since you’re so eager to dig up any kind of dirt on America, just take a look at its partnership with its best friend, little Israel. When has America ever sold four billion dollars worth of military weapons, or any amount of military weapons for that matter, to Israel’s enemies? The answer is never. When has America exploited Israel? The answer is never. When has America coerced Israel? The answer again is never. Hey, gigantic America and its dear close friend, little Israel, have a totally equal partnership. Each side gets what it wants from the other. If gigantic America and little Israel can have this kind of equal partnership, then there’s absolutely no reason why gigantic Russia and little Armenia can’t also have this kind of equal partnership.
You may—rather small-mindedly I’m sorry to say—call it “digging up dirt on America”, but I call it an attempt to impart wisdom to certain posters, such as yourself, to the effect that whatever is perceived as “foul treatment” by a mightier state in regard to a smaller state is sometimes a customary practice in this vile and unscrupulous world of international politics. Hence my examples of America’s foul treatment of her smaller neighboring nation-states (Israel is nowhere near the U.S. geographically, as you may know). I have no problems with bringing examples of foul treatment by, say, China in regard to Vietnam. Would you call it “digging up dirt”, if it’s China? Or it’s “digging up dirt” only when it comes to America?
And where in my comments, may I ask, have you dug up that I “insisted that establishing economic partnerships with countries other than Russia was a ‘utopian concept’”? Word-twisting and issue-hopping are an indication of weakness, d’ya know that? My reply was to this particular phrase: “Armenia should also develop BIG partnerships with numerous other countries as well”, while the word “utopian” was applied solely to Armenia’s failed complementarity policy, and nothing else. By “big partnerships” most readers, I’m sure, would understand “strategic”, “allied” partnerships and not just economic partnerships that you so craftily substituted. No one would disagree on broader economic partnerships, but in terms of “big partnerships” Armenia attempted but couldn’t afford complementing or jeopardizing her strategic partnership with Russia with some unspecified “numerous other countries”. Repeat: in terms of big, i.e. strategic, partnership. This is what the RoA government understands, this is what the majority of RoA’s people understand, and this is what sober-minded posters in these pages understand. The Kremlin doesn’t have to preach this to the RoA. Most Armenians, if you know, are intellectually advanced people. In terms of EEU vs. EU, Sargsyan at the end did what the majority of his people preferred. End of story.
“When has America ever sold […] any amount of military weapons to Israel’s enemies? The answer is never.”
Really? Then I guess it is the Martians who are selling weapons to Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt?
“Gigantic America and its dear close friend, little Israel, have a totally equal partnership. If gigantic America and little Israel can have this kind of equal partnership, then there’s absolutely no reason why gigantic Russia and little Armenia can’t also have this kind of equal partnership.”
Really? This may be the most myopic and politically incompetent analogy that I’ve ever come across in AW. Do I have to elaborate on what lobbying groups heavily influence this country’s political establishment and shape America’s foreign policy (and foreign aid) towards Israel or you’ll spare my time? If you decide to spare my time, I hope you’ll eventually understand that it is not because Israel is so “dear close friend” to the U.S. that the White House has “equal partnership” with Tel Aviv, but that Israel, though those very lobbying groups, has a leverage to evolve America’s foreign policy to Israel’s benefit. You call it “equal”? I call it manipulative. But you may continue to live in a fantasy world…
Well, just because it might be a customary practice for some of the mightier countries to unfairly treat their less mightier allies, is again no kind of justification for the extremely foul treatment that Russia subjects Armenia to.
In terms of “digging up dirt” on America or China, I’m not criticizing you for that; however, it has nothing to do with the topic of discussion that I brought forward, which has to do with the partnership between Russia and Armenia.
And as usual, you have a bad habit of twisting around the weak, sloppy explanations you write in those comments of yours. On top of that, you also try to twist around the words of those commentators whom you engage into discussions with. In regard to creating “big partnerships” with other countries, I was referring only to economic partnerships. That’s why I brought up the topic of the “free trade agreement” that Serzh Sargsyan previously pursued with Europe, and then abandoned. Was it not obvious to you that this only had to do with creating an economic partnership, and nothing else? Creating strong economic partnerships with Europe, China, America, as well as other countries will never jeopardize Armenia’s strategic partnership with Russia.
Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, and Egypt, of whom the United States is selling military weapons to, or plans to sell military weapons to, are not enemies of Israel as you foolishly claim, nor do they represent a threat to Israel. As a matter of fact, those particular Arab countries along with Israel, happen to have an alliance against Iran.
In regard to my previous statement, “Gigantic America and its dear close friend, little Israel, have a totally equal partnership,” it’s a true statement, regardless of the heavy influence that those Israeli lobbying groups have on America’s political establishment and foreign policy. Again, each side gets what it wants out of the other. Therefore, the partnership between these two particular countries is an equal partnership.
“In terms of EEU vs. EU, Sargsyan at the end did what the majority of his people preferred. End of story.” Yeah right! Only a person who’s intellectually unadvanced and lacks any kind of wisdom, would believe a foolish story like that. First of all, this was never a question of whether Armenia was going to become a member of the European Union or not. Again, the free trade agreement that Armenia’s leadership pursued with Europe, had nothing to do with joining the European Union. It was only about creating strong economic ties with Europe; and, this is exactly what the vast majority of Armenians, both in the homeland and diaspora, wished for. But, it just didn’t happen. Putin, as usual, got his way with Sargsyan, and coerced him into abandoning the European free trade agreement, and instead, entering into his corrupt, unbeneficial EEU. This explains the reason why numerous massive protests took place in Armenia’s capital city (Yerevan), right after Sargsyan made that 180 degree turn.
And second of all, Serzh Sargsyan never does anything that the majority of Armenia’s citizens prefer. This again explains the reason why so many of Armenia’s citizens are leaving the country on a yearly basis, which has produced a population that is declining year after year. And if that’s not already bad enough, forty percent of the adults in Armenia wish to move out of the country.
Interesting. When it comes to Russian arms sales to Turkoazeris, it’s “extremely foul treatment” of Armenia. But when it comes to America’s involvement in coup d’états or invasions of her Central and South American neighbors, it’s “digging up dirt on America”. Do you have a well balanced mind?
“In terms of “digging up dirt” on America or China, I’m not criticizing you for that; however, it has nothing to do with the topic of discussion that I brought forward […].
Yes, it hasn’t, but YOU brought it forward and I only replied, demonstrating that instances of “foul treatment”, whatever you mean by it, are customary and there’s no need to fixate narrowly on Russia’s arms sales. Other mightier countries outrightly invade or plot coup d’états in their neighboring states, as I demonstrated.
“And as usual, you have a bad habit of twisting around the weak, sloppy explanations you write in those comments of yours.”
You just write this childish retort because I rightly accused you of writing one thing (“instead of unwisely restricting itself to only one big partnership which revolves around Russia, Armenia should also develop big partnerships with numerous other countries as well”) and then substituting “big partnerships” with “economic partnerships”. No, Sir, we see what you wrote in your June 9, 2015 at 1:21am post. There is no single word that would suggest that you’re referring to purely economic partnerships. Had you referred to solely economic partnerships, you wouldn’t use the phrase “one big partnership” in regard to Armenia’s partnership with Russia, knowing, I hope, that Armenia’s partnership with Russia is not only economic, but also politico-military, cultural, spiritual, and national security-related.
“Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, and Egypt, of whom the United States is selling military weapons to, or plans to sell military weapons to, are not enemies of Israel as you foolishly claim.”
Most of these states don’t formally recognize Israel, have no diplomatic relations with Israel, prohibit Israeli citizens from entering their respective countries, and don’t accept Israeli passports at points of entry. Does this look like amiable relations to you?
“Gigantic America and its dear close friend, little Israel, have a totally equal partnership […] is a true statement, regardless of the heavy influence that those Israeli lobbying groups have on America’s political establishment and foreign policy. Each side gets what it wants out of the other. Therefore, the partnership between these two particular countries is an equal partnership.”
I liked “therefore” in this funny statement of yours… In international politics nobody does something for nothing, did you know that? There’s always a quid pro quo involved. A translation, just in case, roughly means: “something for something”. Therefore, America shapes her foreign policy towards Israel commensurate with political and financial dividends that America’s political establishment gets from lobbying groups, because Israel can offer cake crumbs to America in terms of natural resources, hydrocarbon resources, etc. Maybe, just like Armenia, its important geographic position. But is it enough to foolishly state that America’s partnership with Israel is “equal”?
“[…]the free trade agreement that Armenia’s leadership pursued with Europe had nothing to do with joining the European Union. It was only about creating strong economic ties with Europe”.
Dead wrong. Armenia’s leadership pursued ties and various agreements with the EU that could eventually lead to Armenia’s associated membership in the EU, not just to creating “strong economic ties” with Europe.
“ Serzh Sargsyan never does anything that the majority of Armenia’s citizens prefer.”
Did I say that he always does? But on EEU he did. You can argue till you’re blue in the face. It won’t change the fact.
BTW, in the English language there are no such words as “equalness” and “unadvanced” that you used in your posts. Are you posting from the U.S.?
It’s quite interesting how irritated you become whenever I bring up the subject of Russia’s foul treatment of Armenia. And as usual, you immediately try to change the subject to America’s wrongdoings against other countries. Are you posting from the Kremlin? Anyway, in this particular discussion, I’m not concerned about America’s wrongdoings against other countries. Once again, the discussion that I brought forward here is about the relationship between Russia and Armenia. Furthermore, Russia’s extremely foul treatment of its ally, Armenia, isn’t only about selling four billion dollars worth of military weapons to its mortal enemy (Azerbaijan). In addition, throughout this whole entire time, Russia has never once condemned Azerbaijan for its terrorist attacks against its ally, Armenia. It happens to be totally neutral in this conflict, and is shamefully playing one side against the other. On top of that, Russia persistently coerces and dictates to Armenia what it can and can’t do. Perfect examples of this, were the handling of the Gyumri massacre, as well as the disgusting manner in which Russia threatened and forced Armenia to join its EEU. And again, let’s not forget how Soviet Russia stripped Soviet Armenia of its territories (Artsakh, Nakhichevan, Javakhk, Kars, Artvin, Ardahan, Ani, and Mount Ararat) and gave it away, with the hope that it would persuade Turkey to join the former Soviet Union.
Again, returning back to my previous statement about Armenia developing “big partnerships” with other countries, any intellectually advanced person would’ve understood that I was referring to “economic partnerships” after I gave the example of the free trade agreement which Serzh Sargsyan had previously pursued with Europe. This obviously had to do with an economic partnership, and nothing else; however, you failed to understand this. And because of that, I substituted “big partnership” with “economic partnership.” Your attempt at digging up the slightest bit of dirt on me, is failing miserably.
Contrary to your foolish claim that Armenia and Russia’s partnership is also based on culture, these two cultures are in no way similar to each other. As a matter of fact, the noble, rich Armenian culture happens to be several thousand years older than the Russian culture.
Just because a particular state does not formally recognize another state, does not suggest that it’s an enemy who wishes to cause harm to that state. At the current moment, Israel does not view those six Arab states as posing any kind of threat to it. They all have an alliance against Iran. And contrary to your absurd statement that Israel offers cake crumbs to America, it offers a hell of a lot more than just that. After all, it is thru the assistance of Israel that America is able to control the Middle East by keeping it in a continuous state of chaos. So again, just like Israel is getting what it wants out of America, America is also getting what it wants out of Israel. Therefore, as I correctly stated, their partnership is an equal partnership.
Just because there existed the possibility that the Republic of Armenia might begin the process of attempting to become a member of the European Union (it’s actually a long process) after establishing the free trade agreement with Europe, does not necessarily mean that it would’ve happened. Anyway, truthfully speaking, I would never want for the Republic of Armenia to become a member of the European Union (the same way that I did not want for it to become a member of Putin’s EEU). If that were to happen, it would therefore be subjected to all of the European Union requirements which would certainly not be beneficial to Armenia. As a matter of fact, one of these requirements would obviously consist of dismantling Armenia’s Russian military base, which, of course, could never be possible due to the Turkish threat. On the other hand, there were no requirements attached to the European free trade agreement, and it would’ve been very beneficial to the Republic of Armenia. On the subject of the EEU, how can it be possible that the majority of Armenia’s citizens were in favor of joining this union when it happens to actually be Europe that is Armenia’s first trading partner? That’s right! Thirty-five percent of Armenia’s trade is with Europe. In addition, Armenia also has large trade deals with China and the United Arab Emirates. This means that the prices of all products that are imported from these countries, will increase as a result of joining Putin’s EEU. As for those people who falsely claim that Russia’s market will now be open to Armenia, the Russian market had already been open to Armenia long before joining the EEU. And contrary to what the Russian nationalists falsely claim, Serzh Sargsyan did not want to join Putin’s deplorable EEU. Sargsyan, really wanted to establish that free trade agreement with Europe. However, he was threatened and forced by Putin to abandon it, and to enter into the EEU. And that’s a fact!
“Are you posting from the U.S.?” At the current moment, I’m posting from East Hollywood, California (Little Armenia).
And, for your own education, the words “equalness” and “unadvanced” do indeed exist in the English language. “Equalness” means equality. “Unadvanced” means not advanced. Make sure to look these words up in the Merriam-Webster online dictionary.
Actually, in regard to my June 9th comment in which I used the term of “big partnerships” instead of “economic partnerships” in reference to the seeking of strong economic ties with Europe and other countries, I made an error afterward when I stated that I had given the example of the “free trade agreement which Serzh Sargsyan pursued with Europe” in that June 9th comment. This example, I gave in my following comment on June 11th. It was actually a few moments ago that I noticed this error. If you get to read my comment from June 13, 2015 at 6:30 am, (at the current moment, it’s awaiting moderation), skip that second paragraph in regard to “big partnerships.”
I become irritated when nonsense is babbled ad nauseum, not when it comes to the subject of Russia’s “foul treatment” of Armenia. And I don’t change the subject. For the third time and for especially slow burners in this thread: other subjects are brought to demonstrate the commonality in the behavior of virtually all mightier states in regard to virtually all smaller states. One need not post from Kremlin or the Baku Khanate to understand this trivial mode of behavior by mightier states and accept it as sad, and oftentimes unavoidable, part of Realpolitik.
“I’m not concerned about America’s wrongdoings against other countries”.
Why? As a person who, I bet, considers himself a grand intellectual with wide worldview, you should be. Why are you concerned narrowly with Russia’s treatment of her smaller neighbors and not with America or China’s treatment of their smaller neighbors? Why aren’t you concerned with Turkey and Israel providing military equipment and advisors to Turkoazeris? Try to widen your intellectual horizon to learn that “foul treatment”, as you say, is not typically Russian. I brought three examples of explicit foul treatment by the U.S. of its smaller Latin American neighbor states. Are you tasked to fixate on Russia or your intellectual abilities allow you to absorb other cases, draw analogies between them, etc.? If your abilities allow that, what conclusion do you arrive at when you compare?
“[…]disgusting manner in which Russia threatened and forced Armenia to join its EEU”.
I offered you to either accept the fact that Armenia’s accession to EEU was based on the will of the prevailing majority of her people or argue till you’re blue in the face. You seem to have chosen the latter. Well, then, argue till you’re blue in the face…
“Let’s not forget how Soviet Russia stripped Soviet Armenia of its territories (Artsakh, Nakhichevan, Javakhk, Kars, Artvin, Ardahan, Ani, and Mount Ararat) and gave it away, with the hope that it would persuade Turkey to join the former Soviet Union.”
Yeah, let’s not forget that it was Bolshevik Russia, whose ruling elites comprised almost entirely of non-ethnically Russian members in the late 1910s and the early 1920s, that stripped Armenia of some of her ancestral territories.
Re: “big partnerships” vs. “economic partnerships”, this is what you wrote in your June 9, 2015 at 1:21am post:
“And, in no way am I advocating for Armenia to discontinue ITS IMPORTANT PARTNERSHIP with Russia. On the contrary, I would like very much for it to continue. On the other hand, we certainly don’t want this partnership to be based on an extreme lack of equalness, as it’s been from the very beginning, where Russia exploits little Armenia in every possible way, coerces it, and persistently dictates to it what it can and can’t do. And furthermore, instead of unwisely restricting itself to only ONE BIG PARTNERSHIP which revolves around Russia, the Republic of Armenia should also develop big partnerships with numerous other countries as well […]”
I don’t know whom—and of what ethnic origin—you mean by “any intellectually advanced person” who you think would’ve understood that you were referring to “economic partnership” in the passage above, but there’s nothing there that remotely suggests that you were referring to purely economic partnership. Moreover, the phrase “we certainly don’t want this partnership to be based on an extreme lack of equalness, […] where Russia exploits little Armenia in EVERY POSSIBLE WAY, coerces it,[…]” suggests to, indeed, any intellectually advanced person that “every possible way” in “exploiting and coercing” little Armenia almost certainly refers to a partnership much wider than narrowly economic one. But, as has become customary, you may argue till you’re blue in the face.
Culture, in case you don’t know, is “the arts and other manifestations of human intellectual achievement regarded collectively” (source: Oxford English Dictionary). And in case you have a reading comprehension predicament (I don’t know you), in my post I wrote: “Armenia’s partnership with Russia is not only economic, but also […] cultural”. Nowhere have I said that “these two cultures are similar to each other”. Twisting words is a sign of weakness, remember?
“Just because a particular state does not formally recognize another state, does not suggest that it’s an enemy who wishes to cause harm to that state.”
It depends. Some states may wish to cause harm (for instance, Saudi Arabia or Iran), some states may not wish to go to such extremes. What is clear, however, is that non-recognition, refusal to establish diplomatic relations, prohibition of entry, etc. are indications of animosity/hostility. Thus, the U.S. is selling arms to the states that are hostile towards its “dear close friend”, little Israel. Therefore, it defies any logic to suggest that their bilateral relations are “equal”. Oh, oh, I forgot that in this particular discussion you’re not concerned about America’s wrongdoings against other countries… And I agreed that Israel mostly offers its geographic position in the Middle East to America. Is it commensurate with all the military, economic, technological, political, intelligence, and diplomatic assistance Israel receives from the U.S.? If the answer is still “yes”, as I expect, then I’d better talk to a brick wall.
I don’t know what boondocks you got your education in, but neither Merriam-Webster nor Oxford online dictionaries contain such words as “equalness” or “unadvanced” in the modern English language.
Ukraine has and continues to align itself with the Western powers and lost Crimea. It is a no-brainer for Armenia to sever its relations from Russia. Do not overlook that when the Ottoman Empire was being dismembered by the West, the West did not liberate Armenia and allowed the genocide of the Armenians; a clear recognition that Armenia would fall into the Russian sphere of influence. So Armenia can trust the West?
(Yerevanian // June 12, 2015 at 5:18 am //)
1. {“ This explains the reason why numerous massive protests took place in Armenia’s capital city (Yerevan), right after Sargsyan made that 180 degree turn.”}
What alleged “numerous massive protests” ?
In the early days of the Republic there were protests that fielded around 100,000 people: those can be qualified as “massive”.
When the “real” ‘president’ Raffi Hovanessian was denied his “rightful” office, he called for massive protests.
By Heritage own estimates, about 8,000 protesters showed up to demand that Pres Sargsyan resign.
That is a fair number of protesters, but a blip for a city with a population of 1,000,000+.
So show us evidence of those alleged “numerous” and allegedly “massive” protests against EEU in RoA.
The only protests I recall were a few hundred people: the same group of SoroCardres that on cue protest about whatever SorosaLeaders want.
2. {“ And second of all, Serzh Sargsyan never does anything that the majority of Armenia’s citizens prefer.”}
The EEU accession was approved by something like 93% of the RoA Parliament.
Every opposition party, except the delusional Heritage, supported it.
Presidents or PMs of States do what they feel is necessary for the country: sometimes they are right, sometime they are wrong.
If they screw up badly, they get thrown out next election.
Last Presidential election in Armenia was in 2013:
Serzh Sargsyan: 58.64%.
Raffi Hovannisian: 36.75%.
A 20%+ margin of vistory: a landslide.
Which means adult voters of RoA massively approved the job Pres Sargsyan was doing in his previous term.
At one time recently, the approval rating of Pres Hollande dropped to 13%: 79% of those polled disapproved of his performance.
Obama’s approval dropped to 37% in 2013, and 38% in 2014.
US Congress approval rating was 15% in 2014.
That means that neither US Presidents nor US Congress do what they promised to do when running for office.
That also means that individuals like you who recycle and regurgitate false and meaningless statistics about Armenia have ulterior motives.
So that you have no doubt what I am saying: you are spreading harmful disinformation about Armenia.
3. {“ this again explains the reason why so many of Armenia’s citizens are leaving the country on a yearly basis,…”}
That again explains nothing.
A number of people leave for seasonal work in Russia, then return at the end of the year.
Some people leave permanently because they don’t want their only son to be drafted and get killed by Turkbaijanis.
People who rag on RoA Gov ignore the inconvenient fact that RoA & NKR are still at war.
A war that neither of the republics, not the people, nor their leaders want.
In any case, those who emigrate do so for reasons that are beyond the control or influence of any RoA Gov.
4. {“… which has produced a population that is declining year after year”}
Evidence ?
From verifiable sources ?
(I have them: let’s see what you got).
5. {“ And if that’s not already bad enough, forty percent of the adults in Armenia wish to move out of the country.”}
Polls that measure sentiment, in particular, are notoriously unreliable and generally indicate nothing.
Depending how the question is phrased, you can get diametrically opposite answers from the same person.
And it is common knowledge that people will give answers that they think are expected of them (…i.e. they lie).
But since you have so much faith in polls, here are some for you to consider vis-à-vis your claim that 40% of RoA Armenians want to leave.
[Poll finds that 64 percent of Armenians favor their country’s membership in EEU] (ARKA.am 2014)
[Three-quarters of Britons want to emigrate with Australia the most popular destination] (2010 Daily Mail)
[Bye, the beloved country – why almost 40 percent of Israelis are thinking of emigrating] (2012 Haaretz)
[ADAM: More than 63% of Azerbaijani population wants to emigrate](Socioligal service ADAM, Azerbaijan 2013)
The anti-EEU protests that took place in Yerevan, back in 2013, right after Serzh Sargsyan made that abrupt 180 degree turn from the European free trade agreement, did not exceed 1,000 people in any one of those protests; so from that standpoint, they were not massive; however, the police did suppress those protests which prevented so many more people from joining those protests. Anyway, it’s not important how many people actually participated in those protests. What’s important is that the vast majority of people in both Armenia and the diaspora were in favor of pursuing strong economic ties with Europe which would’ve obviously been very beneficial to Armenia, as opposed to joining Putin’s EEU, which has absolutely nothing to offer Armenia. Make sure to read the fifth paragraph of my comment from June 13, 2015 at 6:30 am, for the details on all of that. Another thing that I wanted to add to those details, was the fact that Armenia needs Europe and the West for investments. Without Europe and the West, there will never be any kind of investments in Armenia. Russia is certainly not capable of doing it. It neither has the funds nor the technology for it.
When I say that Serzh Sargsyan never does anything that the majority of Armenia’s citizens prefer, I’m certainly not referring to the RoA parliament which consists of a majority of members from his Republican party. I’m specifically referring to the citizens of Armenia.
“Presidents or PMs of states, do what they feel is necessary for the country: sometimes they are right, sometimes they are wrong. If they screw up badly, they get thrown out next election. Not necessarily; there are many countries in the world where this is certainly not the case, such as the two most perfect examples of Turkey and Azerbaijan. When you say that “President” Sargsyan won the 2013 election with almost 59 percent of the vote, those numbers were created by the polling stations which were run by Sargsyan’s crew of thugs, who rigged those elections, and in the process, threatened many of the voters. Journalists also reported that they were threatened and disallowed to videotape violations at these polling stations. In addition, there were numerous reports that voters in many of Armenia’s villages were coerced into voting for Sargsyan. And again, how is it possible to maintain the false belief that Sargsyan was elected in a fair, democratic election when the overwhelming majority of Armenia’s citizens disapproved of him prior to the 2013 elections? As a matter of fact, even the overwhelming majority of those Artsakh War veterans whom he participated with in the Artsakh War, also disapprove of him.
“That also means that individuals like you who recycle and regurgitate false and meaningless statistics about Armenia have ulterior motives. Of course, for someone like you whose beloved hero is Serzh Sargsyan, and who will therefore do anything possible to defend his illegitimate, enormously corrupt regime, anybody who disapproves of him and his horrible performance as the “president” of Armenia is therefore doing all of the above. Anyway, exactly how am I spreading “harmful disinformation” by talking about the harmful domestic problems which are threatening Armenia’s existence? Hey, by refraining from discussing these problems and instead choosing to be a denialist, such as yourself, and pretending that these problems don’t exist, what would happen if all Armenians were to behave like that? The answer, obviously, is that these problems would get a whole lot worse.
“A number of people leave for seasonal work in Russia, then return at the end of the year.” And why would these particular people return back if there’s no kind of work awaiting them in Armenia?
In any case, those who emigrate do so for reasons that are beyond the control or influence of any RoA Gov. That’s not true. If Serzh Sargsyan’s regime really wanted to, they could stop this massive flow of Armenians out of the homeland, by not neglecting them as they continuously do, by creating jobs, by improving its miserable health care, by providing much needed assistance to the 35 percent who live in poverty, and by improving its economy by establishing strong economic ties with other countries as opposed to allowing the country to be fully controlled and coerced by Russia.
You actually don’t believe that Armenia’s population is declining? Here, check this out:
http://www.keghart.com/VK-Foundation-Depopulation
“The shrinking population of Armenia is a very serious issue. At the time of Armenian independence in 1991, the population of Armenia stood at 4 million. Today, it is below 3 million. A free, independent Armenia was achieved, and yet today we are witnessing the dissipation of Armenia, resulting from unprecedented levels of emigration. This exodus is now at crisis proportions. It represents an existential threat to the country. Armenia’s adversaries are watching. They continue this blockade, and watch with satisfaction as Armenia empties itself.”
What Yerevanian and others who are criticizing Armenia joining the EEU fail to understand is, Armenia could not afford NOT to join the EEU. Because Russia put forth a plan, there was really no alternative, and the reason is not the western explanation of “Putin strong armed Armenia”. The first reason is obvious, and that is to keep good relations with Russia. The second reason is not so obvious.
Imagine what would happen if Armenia did not join, and later on at some point, Azerbaijan did. And a member of the EEU has the right to refuse other states from joining. In short, this would be a catastrophe for Armenia’s interests and future. Then Azerbaijan would suddenly gain even bigger advantages and have more leverage with Russia against Armenia. And what would the EU have done next, come to Armenia’s rescue like in 1915? Please…
[And what would the EU have done next, come to Armenia’s rescue like in 1915? Please…]
And what would the US have done next, come to Armenia’s rescue like they did to their ally Georgia in 2008? Please…
p.s. I believe I only state a historical fact and not “digging up dirt on America” as it looks to some bubbleheads in this thread.
First this:
(Yerevanian // June 12, 2015 at 5:18 am //)
{“ This explains the reason why numerous massive protests took place in Armenia’s capital city (Yerevan),…..”}
Then this:
(Yerevanian // June 16, 2015 at 10:13 am //)
{“ …..did not exceed 1,000 people in any one of those protests; so from that standpoint, they were not massive; “}
First this: “numerous massive protests”.
Then this: “they were not massive”.
So you are admitting that you made things up – hoping nobody would challenge you.
And there is still no proof from you there were “numerous” or that they had anywhere near 1,000 protesters each: just your assertion, nothing more.
{“ Anyway, it’s not important how many people actually participated in those protests”}
So in your worldview 100 or 1,000 protesters in a city of 1,000,000+ carries the same significance as 10,000 or 100,000 protesters ?
In which irrational Universe is 1,000 equal in significance to 10,000 or 100,000 ?
And your claim that {“police did suppress those protests which prevented so many more people from joining those protests”} is another made-up nonsense.
No point in debunking the rest of your made-up, imaginary events or baseless assertions in this thread at this time.
Your knowledge of what goes on in Armenia and the geopolitics of the region is quite fragmentary, and to compensate, you are simply making things up as you go.
Some of us are trying to have an adult conversation here, not play kindergarten.
Hagop D:
Whenever people who have no clue bring up RoA joining EEU, I post this short counter by ARF-RoA that is the best one I have ever seen regarding this issue.
Needless to say, neither ARF-RoA nor Mr. Rustamyan are friends of Pres. Sargsyan or RPA.
I know our people are different (Great), but am still amazed how clearly our leaders see things in the geopolitical landscape, put aside petty differences, and stand united in national security matters.
The greatest short speech re EEU:
[ARF Dashnaktsutyun to vote for joining Eurasian Union]
http://news.am/eng/news/242411.html
{YEREVAN. – Armenia’s accession to the Eurasian Union is an examination that the country should pass according to “what does not kill me makes me stronger” principle, MP from ARF Dashnaktsutyun believes.
Armen Rustamyan agreed with the assertions that Armenia could hold better talks while drafting a treaty on accession to the Eurasian Economic Union. “Today we must make decisions taking into account the situation. Armenia and NKR are in a blockade and in a state of war. The world is in a state of new Cold War. The struggle for influence between super powers has brought to direct confrontation. For Armenia, it is important to decide how to behave in this situation,” Rustamyan emphasized. The MP stressed that if we want peace, we should be prepared for war. The task is to hand over 42 thousand square kilometers of Armenian land to the next generation.“ If you do not have a better alternative for the security of the country, you should preserve the existing ones. Calm down, it’s a fact. For ARF this treaty is a solution for safety,” he resumed.}
“If you do not have a better alternative for the security of the country, you should preserve the existing ones. Calm down, it’s a fact.”
Hagop,
What you and others who criticize me are failing to understand, is that by allowing Armenia to be coerced into joining Putin’s deplorable EEU, “President” Sargsyan has therefore made Armenia fully dependent on Russia, which prevents it from establishing strong economic ties with other countries, and further causes harm by increasing the prices of all products that Armenia imports from its biggest trading partner (Europe), as well as all products imported from other countries. As a result, this will cause the residents of Armenia to become even poorer. Furthermore, Russia neither has the funds nor technology to make investments in Armenia. Only Europe and the West are capable of doing this. And again, that European free trade agreement which would’ve been highly beneficial to Armenia, did not require Armenia to become a member of the European Union.
“And what would the EU have done next, come to Armenia’s rescue like in 1915? Please…” No, Europe certainly did not come to Western Armenia’s rescue in 1915, the same way that Russia did not come to Armenia’s rescue in 1915. As a matter of fact, after Europe and America failed to render any kind of justice to Armenia by not putting the Treaty of Sevres into force, Soviet Russia, at least, could’ve preserved what remained of the Armenian homeland, but even that it didn’t do by giving away a huge chunk of the Armenian homeland, with the hope that it would persuade Turkey to join its union (those Russian nationalist buttheads absolutely hate it whenever I bring this up).
It’s rather irrational that you would insist that “Putin strong armed Armenia” is a western explanation. Exactly how? If Putin didn’t coerce the Republic of Armenia, then what else could possibly explain Sargsyan’s extremely sudden last-minute decision (right after meeting with Putin) to relinquish the European free trade agreement that he was so deeply after for years, and instead to enter into Putin’s EEU, which does not serve any kind of benefit to Armenia in the first place? And, the excuse that Armenia joined this particular union to keep good relations with Russia is total nonsense. Armenia, already had good and tight relations with Russia a long time before joining the EEU. Being coerced into becoming a member of Putin’s EEU, is not the definition of having good relations; on the contrary, that’s the definition of Armenia being enslaved by Russia. There’s a huge difference between the two.
Avery,
It’s rather comical that you would accuse me of making up imaginary events, filled with nonsense, against your hero (Serzh Sargsyan), when it happens to actually be you who persistently and desperately creates false stories to cover up his horrible failures as the “president” of Armenia. By behaving like a typical kindergartner, who will do anything to glorify his or her hero to the highest possible level, you are therefore preventing yourself from engaging with me into an intelligent, rational conversation.
In regard to “numerous massive protests,” I did not make anything up. There are protests against Sargsyan’s regime that take place on a very frequent basis in Yerevan. Furthermore, two of my friends happened to participate in one of the anti-EEU protests (back in 2013) and described it as a massive protest; however, they didn’t know what the exact number of participants were at that particular protest. After all, it was kind of difficult to come up with an accurate number as a result of the police suppression that was taking place. It was only after you inquired that I found out that the number of participants at one of those protests happened to be around 1,000. And, if the police hadn’t intensely suppressed it the way they did, the participation could possibly have climbed to over 10,000. Make sure to read the Armenian Weekly article from December 3rd, 2013, titled, Unwelcome Guest, Undesired Host: A Street Perspective of Putin’s Armenia Visit.
Here are some of the important details from that article:
“Despite all odds stacked against Armenian civil society and strong pro-Russian and anti-European Union propaganda, a very diverse group of more than 1,000 citizens took to the streets of Yerevan to protest Putin’s visit, and the regime’s decision to join the Customs Union.”
“The main protest activity started at 1pm, at Freedom Square. I went to the venue earlier than planned as rumors had spread that the authorities were planning to close off a bigger part of Baghramyan Avenue near the Presidential Palace.”
“Early on, a police car intervened, warning that the protest was not authorized by municipal authorities, and was thus illegal and had to be dispersed. Police blocked the march halfway through. The protesters reversed direction, but were again blocked off” (an example of police suppression).
“The protesters took to Amiryan Street, and were again blocked by police, who started a crackdown. They detained every activist they managed to catch, and confiscated cameras. Back downtown, as police began acting violently, protesters ran to another street to avoid being detained” (another example of police suppression).
“Putin left later that night. His visit resulted in a record number of arrests: 110 in total.”
“The very fact that protests, civil disobedience, and other events aimed at expressing dissent are met with heavy and overwhelming police response is more proof that the language of brutal force, threats, and provocation is seen as the only effective way of silencing citizens. The police have lost credibility in the eyes of many. They are no longer perceived as guarantors of the security of citizens, but as a brute force employed by the regime. This was clear in the number of detentions.”
“During his two terms as president, Serge Sarkisian’s legitimacy has been questioned by many in Armenia. The more time goes by, the stronger the dissent and anger of the Armenian population. If things go on this way with Sarkissian pushing deeper cooperation with Putin, while at the same time ignoring the urgent problems of unemployment, emigration, poverty, and human rights, the situation might easily get out of hand.”
I guess Hagop may decide to reply to another balderdash of “Yerevanian”, and I’m sorry to nip into this exchange to demonstrate how delusional and outrightly misinforming it is.
“By allowing Armenia to be coerced into joining Putin’s deplorable EEU, “President” Sargsyan has therefore made Armenia fully dependent on Russia, which prevents it from establishing strong economic ties with other countries”.
Noted is how “one big partnership with other countries” in previous post has now become “strong economic ties with other countries”. Second, being “fully dependent on Russia” doesn’t prevent RoA from establishing economic ties with other countries. Except Russia, Armenia’s main import partners are Germany, Bulgaria, Belgium, Iran, the U.S., Canada, Georgia, Netherlands, etc. Except Russia, Armenia’s main import partners are China, Germany, Iran, Ukraine, etc. Third, if Armenia is fully dependent on the state of Russia, then it is fair to say that AzerBEYjan is fully dependent on the state within the state BP.
“Only Europe and the West are capable of doing this [investments to Armenia’s economy].”
Why didn’t the West make them, then? Especially during the 1990s when Armenia was trying to balance between Russia and the West? Why didn’t the West take advantage of Russia’s temporary weakness after the demise of the Soviet Union and step in Armenia in terms of economic and military involvement?
“European free trade agreement which would’ve been highly beneficial to Armenia did not require Armenia to become a member of the European Union.”
It required that Armenia signed an associated membership agreement with the European Union. It is a highly debatable issue what union could prove to be “highly beneficial” in the future to Armenia. Opponents would say that given Armenia’s post-Soviet ties, infrastructures, and communications, as well as her landlocked market and closer geographic proximity to Russian and CIS markets, the EEU would be more beneficial.
“No, Europe certainly did not come to Western Armenia’s rescue in 1915, the same way that Russia did not come to Armenia’s rescue in 1915.”
No. Not “the same way”. At least Russia was directly involved in the Caucasus/Armenia by waging war, which the Ottoman Empire had started. Russia had an upper hand in it up until 1915 when large detachments of her Caucasus Army were shifted to the Western Front and, shortly after, in early- and late 1917, the February and October takeovers led to the destruction of her troops in the Caucasus. Even if Russia wished, in this WWI- and revolutionary chaos and the ensued Civil War, she hardly could come to anyone’s rescue.
“Soviet Russia, at least, could’ve preserved what remained of the Armenian homeland, but even that it didn’t do by giving away a huge chunk of the Armenian homeland[…]”.
For the hundredth time, it was Bolshevik Russia whose policy decision-makers consisted almost entirely of non-ethnic Russians. If it were the same Russia, then how can we explain that in 1828 Russia incorporated Eastern Armenian lands into the empire, but in the 1920s gave chunks of its (same eastern Armenian) territories to others? And, for the record, in comparative terms Soviet Russia did preserve what remained of the Armenian homeland, unfortunately short of Nakhichevan and Artsakh.
Is a trivial comparative analysis so burdensome for chicken brains?
My fellow Armenians, I have not thoroughly read all the comments, but let’s be civil. It’s just too unattractive to waste space and people’s attentions on unnecessary attacks like “you fail to understand this” or “you are irrational.” It does not make your message any more effective. Both sides make good points. We should be able to do that without wasteful insults. We are all Armenians after all (yes, even me, despite some of your doubts, and despite me calling NKR a separatist fetus or something. We all get angry.).
As for differing points of view, as I said, both sides have valid points. Yes, Russia has done much harm to Armenia and has betrayed (or maybe disillusioned) Armenians’ hopes. It has also done some good, such as saving whatever remains of Armenia (for its own reasons, of course). Yes, maybe Armenia did not have a choice, under the current situation, to join the EEU. Both sides can be reconciled if we stay true to the facts rather than push our points (and egos). My view has been that with a better governance (in my view, one modeled after a successful democracy), Armenia would have been stronger and therefore in a better position to make a choice regarding the EEU. Having a corrupt system has wasted Armenia many opportunities. I think there lies the solution.
Yerevanian,
You want to repeat the same thing which is based on wrong information and assumptions and thus your conclusion is not right. What John and Avery are trying to explain to you is, Armenia’s state of security is closely tied to Russia whether anyone likes it or not, and most Armenians understand this very well both in and out of Armenia. We know Russia’s economy is not as strong as USA’s and the EU has desirable perks but heck, even Europe understood Armenia’s actions and did not blame Armenia, which is why the EU did not preclude Armenia from continuing economic relations with them despite joining the EEU. This is actually brilliant. This while Russia is continually being placed under sanctions and recently their assets were even being frozen in Europe. The EU itself doesn’t even feel as you do. I’d say, Armenia came out of this very well as a matter of fact, Armenia’s leaders did a good job here.
We’ve also discussed here before that the so-called “Russian Revolution” was anything but Russian as John has pointed out in other posts and here, and again, we can’t blame today’s Russia which is now thankfully reverting back to its Christian heritage. I admit my own reservations about Russia are post-Stalin Soviet Russia where all the wrongs against Armenia were not corrected while there was a chance, but then, while the old Bolsheviks may have disappeared, the Soviet mentality was still there. But that is for another discussion. Suffice it to say, Russia has realized today NATO has been busy quietly surrounding her since independence while pulling the wool over the eyes of Russia, and realizing this, Russia has awoken from its slumber. That’s the basic background behind all the conflicts today, it is the new Cold War.
And in the case of Armenia, the good news is that the “New Soviet Union” today is not based on overt control, but rather an economic partnership, designed to strengthen the member countries involved collectively, and in our case, Armenia still has its freedom with the west, unlike before. Yes the EEU is off to a rough start, thanks to the NATO led silent war on Russia, but we need to give it time for it to come to fruition.
As for you claiming Putin did really strong-arm Sargsyan into joining, in the above post, two small examples were given, one being that joining the EEU might have been a sort of “preventive measure” for Armenia’s future security concerns, which you did not fully appreciate since you ignored it. I am sure there were other reasons as well, which we don’t know, and it may be classified. True, Russia could be more giving with Armenia, and I wish Armenia could benefit a lot more than it does, but in the bigger picture, Russia being the world’s number two power, it has its own interests to look after too. With all this said, because I am an Armenian from the traditional diaspora I may not be as “pro-Russia” as some of my fellow compatriots here or from Armenia, who know a lot more about Russian-Armenian relations, but I have learned enough to realize that given our geopolitical situation, we cannot afford for our relations with Russia to regress one bit. When it comes to Russia, I’d like to be the optimist.
“john”,
There’s no need to be sorry in joining the conversations that I have with other commentators. You’re always welcome anytime you wish. If you have time to spend on me, then I also have time to spend on you too. By the way, it’s always a joy to see how deeply irritated you become by the comments that I make in regard to your beloved Russia.
You’re again bringing up “big partnerships”? Well, if you still haven’t been able to understand what I meant by that term after the explanations I provided in those follow-up comments, then it obviously shows how extremely deficient your level of comprehension is.
Being fully dependent on Russia does indeed prevent the Republic of Armenia from developing strong economic ties with other countries. This, of course, explains the reason why after joining Putin’s EEU, it was no longer possible to establish that free trade agreement with Europe. And contrary to your silly claim, importing products from other countries, as Armenia does with Europe, China, the United Arab Emirates and other countries, has absolutely nothing to do with having strong economic ties with these particular countries. Besides Russia, Armenia has strong economic ties with nobody else.
In terms of investments, Europe and America (back in the 90’s) did actually attempt to take advantage of Russia’s temporary weakness after the demise of the former Soviet Union, however, the Armenian government never presented any kind of opportunities to them. And, when Kocharyan came into office, it was already clear that the Republic of Armenia was heading in the direction of total dependence on Russia.
And again, there’s no kind of benefit that Putin’s EEU could possibly provide to the Republic of Armenia. What could possibly be beneficial about being fully dependent on Russia?
And no, Russia did not, at least, try to do something in regard to the Armenian Genocide. Even when Russia happened to occupy Western Armenia (present-day eastern Turkey) between 1916-1917, it still did not do anything in attempting to stop the extermination of Armenians in the other parts of present-day Turkey. Since you didn’t know, the Armenian Genocide did not end in 1915, which would be before the arrival of the Russian army into Western Armenia. After 1915, the Armenian Genocide would continue on for seven more years.
And for the 101st time, no matter how you try to twist all of this around by claiming it was the Bolsheviks or the non-ethnic Russians (feel free to present more silly excuses), the bottom line is that Soviet Russia failed to preserve what remained of the Armenian homeland, and ended up giving away a huge chunk of it (Artsakh, Nakhichevan, Javakhk, Kars, Ani, Ardahan, Artvin, and Mount Ararat. Why is it so difficult for a chicken with the lowest level of brains to, at least, comprehend these few simple things?
Yerevanian,
You decided to descend to personalities in your June 19, 2015 at 4:25 am post. This can only be indicative of the fact that you’re losing the debate and are running out of arguments by repeating the same mantra, as poster “Hagop D” rightly noticed. For instance, when I explain that I become irritated when nonsense is babbled, all you do is to retort that I become irritated by the comments in regard to Russia. Or when I prove by copy-pasting your own post that nowhere in it have you suggested that by “one big partnership” you actually meant “economic partnership”, you still pound away on the same line as before. By doing so, you make a qualified fool of yourself, I’m sorry to say, one who, as poster “Avery” said, plays kindergarten instead of having an adult debate. Like many here, I’m also an Armenian from the traditional Diaspora. Therefore, Russia, by definition, can in no way be “beloved”. I just happened to be trained in Russian/Soviet history, hence my better understanding of causes and effects of Russian Empire/USSR/Russia’s behavior towards her smaller neighbor-states. This said, in no way does my professional knowledge suggest that it is correct all through.
Here, again.
“Importing products from other countries […] has absolutely nothing to do with having strong economic ties with these countries”. No, Sir. Here’s a definition of “economic relations/ties”: “Economic relations are economic activity that involves participants of two countries, most obviously trade”. Therefore, Armenia’s main export and import trade partners, except Russia, have much to do with Armenia’s economic ties with these countries.
“In terms of investments, Europe and America (back in the 90’s) did actually attempt to take advantage of Russia’s temporary weakness after the demise of the former Soviet Union, however, the Armenian government never presented any kind of opportunities to them.”
Facts, please? Exactly how Europe and America attempted to take advantage of Russia’s temporary weakness and—with ants in their pants—make direct investments in Armenia? Conventional wisdom suggests that the newly-independent, earthquake- and war-stricken Republic of Armenia was more than willing to present opportunities to them. Or maybe because Artsakh was at war with AzerBEYjan in the early and mid-1990s, Europe and America filled their pants in order to guarantee the uninterrupted flow of Azeri oil to the West?
“Russia did not, at least, try to do something in regard to the Armenian Genocide. Even when Russia happened to occupy Western Armenia (present-day eastern Turkey) between 1916 and 1917”.
I think you just could have made a revelation about your true identity. Hardly would any Armenian say (I, for one, don’t recall anyone saying such thing) that during the WWI Russia “happened to occupy Western Armenia”. This would be true for a deplorable Turkish denialist or his deplorable Turkic extension Azeri to say, of course, replacing “Western Armenia” with “Eastern Turkey”. But Western Armenians never perceived Russians as occupiers. In fact, Western Armenian peasants saw in them liberators from loathed Turkish shackles. Are you sure you’re writing from “Little Armenia”?
And since you definitely don’t know or even bother to know, the Armenian genocide was happening DURING—not before—the arrival of the Russian army into Western Armenia. WWI’s Caucasus Campaign, the major armed conflict between the Ottoman and the Russian empires, started in October 1914 and already in the early 1915 the Russian Army was making advances into Western Armenia.
“After 1915, the Armenian Genocide would continue on for seven more years.”
Really? And in February 1917 the Russian Empire collapsed. And in October 1917 a new government, the Bolshevik government, came to power. And from 1917 to 1922 Russia was engulfed in the Civil War. Did you know all that?
One may call it a “silly excuse”, which, obviously, demonstrates any poster’s intellectual obtuseness, but the conclusive evidence shows that Bolshevik decision-makers and ruling elites comprised almost entirely of non-Russians. Therefore, the decision to give away chunks of the Armenian homeland was not ethnically Russian per se. Again, if it were the same Russia, why would she take all of Eastern Armenia into the Russian Empire in 1828, but give away chunks of it in the 1920s? One has to have one’s head screwed on the right way to answer this, I believe.
Great Article. Some things to consider:
1. Russia provides the main/focal deterrence from Armenia being invaded full-stop. The Turks threatened and even prepared to invade Armenia in earnest in 1993 and NATO powers did nothing to hinder this. It was Russia’s military presence in Armenia and counter- threat to Turkey forced the Turks hand/called their bluff and the Turks backed down immediately. This was also Russia at its weakest point in 1993. If war with Azerbaijan should reignite, Russian troops in Armenia will prevent Turkey opening up a separate front and enable Armenia to concentrate solely on Azeri forces to its east. The Turks will not take Russia on. This is a massive advantage to Armenia.
2. The Turks and Azeris constantly clamor about close military relations between Armenia and Russia. Let them. They are not doing this because they see the Armenian and Russian alliance as a threat or that they care about Armenia be oriented to the West/NATO/EU, etc, they’re complaining because they would much rather see Armenia nearly defenseless- they salivate at this prospect. The Armenian/Russian alliance provides Armenia leverage and is a defensive necessity. Armenia has a choice- stay the course which is certainly not easy, involves sacrifice, slow development but develop nonetheless, grows slowly more democratic, but at least have its survival be secure -OR- lessen military relations with Russia, STILL be under a blockade, be at the mercy of a dual pronged assault from east and west, have to sacrifice Artsakh, STILL have two crazy neighbors that will then try their utmost to make life miserable, face considerably more abuse, bullying, dominance and perhaps slaughter from a historic enemy, etc. The choice is obvious.
3. The west/NATO will sell Armenia out in a millisecond. Just look at Georgia in 2008- did NATO/EU/US, etc come to Georgia’s aid? Considering how close Georgia attempts to be with these institutions and orientations, did this help them. Right now NATO/EU/US have their hands full regarding their economies, the Middle East/ISIS and numerous other threat. Armenia and even Georgia for that matter, are mere afterthoughts. The West is more concerned with hydrocarbons first and foremost. Democracy, freedom, are slogans but not very important to the West despite their words. Russia has also proven that they are dialed in when it comes to the South Caucasus. 2008 was a mere glimpse and warning and the West/NATO/EU/US was impotent. For Georgia, things could have been far worse had the Russian’s not shown constraint. Turkey’s peace moves (albeit a sham) immediately after the short 2008 conflict were a direct result of their fear of Russia. Russia showed they could cut off Georgia, Azerbaijan and the pipelines at their own behest anytime they deem it appropriate.
4. Despite all these factors, Armenia has followed a dual track orientation with both the West and Russia while also reaching out to China and India. This is very practical and smart. Even after the EU/EEU events a couple of summer’s ago, the West/EU etc seem to now fully understand Armenia’s predicament/realities despite its initial disappointment and have decided to continue to strengthen relations. Despite how crude some this might seem to the more liberal posters at this site, Armenia has another distinct advantage, it is a Christian nation and more western then its neighbors culturally- this helps to a degree and is appreciated within both the West and Russia-even more so with the current global situation.
Russia is not a great friend when you consider how the arm our enemies in tandem with Armenia, have control over major portions of Armenia’s development and often take Armenia for granted. At the same time, they are reliable in terms of defense from genocidal enemies- they are a friend nonetheless.
well said.
We are all concerned about our serious situations whether it’s about NGR and Armenia’s economy and/or security. Very interesting and debating commentaries above which can be only helpful if you can make them calm, constructive and balanced commentaries rather than trying very hard to prove your points and start throwing mud at each other. Please!
Well said Vahagn and Joseph.
Hagop,
I was already aware that Armenia’s military security is closely tied to Russia. Yes, because of the Turkish threat, it is therefore very necessary to have the Russian military on Armenia’s soil. On the other hand, what you don’t seem to be aware of, is that the Russian military is certainly not there to protect the citizens of Armenia; the Russian military is only there to protect Moscow’s interests in that particular region, which it refers to as its “southern border.” As a result, the Russian military will never leave Armenia, regardless of whether the Armenian leadership demands it to or not. Therefore, by not becoming a member of Putin’s EEU, and instead going thru with the establishment of the European free trade agreement, could never possibly cause Russia to withdraw its troops from Armenia.
“Even Europe understood Armenia’s actions and did not blame Armenia, which is why the EU did not preclude Armenia from continuing economic relations with them despite joining the EEU.” Actually, Europe, just like Armenians in the homeland and diaspora, became deeply surprised at how Sargsyan abruptly abandoned the European free trade agreement after intensely pursuing it for years, and instead deciding to join Putin’s EEU. Europe certainly understands that Armenia needs to have a military partnership with Russia; however, there was absolutely no reason why Sargsyan should not have gone thru with the establishment of the European free trade agreement, which did not require Armenia to become a member of the European Union.
In terms of economic relations, there will still continue to be trade between Armenia and Europe, even though the prices of European products imported by Armenia will increase as a result of joining Putin’s EEU. And because of this, the residents of Armenia will become even poorer. There’s certainly nothing brilliant about this. Again, by abandoning the European free trade agreement which would’ve established strong economic ties with Europe, and instead making itself fully dependent on Russia by becoming a member of its totally unbeneficial EEU, the Republic of Armenia came out of this on the lower part of the ladder, which again shows how enormously incompetent the “leaders” of Armenia really are, and also shows how fully controlled they are by Moscow.
Make sure to read the May 18, 2014 Armenian Weekly article, Past the Tipping Point: An Interview with Ara Papian.
Much of the information that I’ve given in my numerous comments in regard to Armenian-Russian relations, European-Armenian relations, and the EEU, was taken from Ara Papian’s explanations in that particular article. I hope you would agree that a scholar like Ara Papian knows a lot more about those three topics than you, me, or any other commentator on this site.
Here are some additional important details from Ara Papian’s explanations in that article:
“Our taxes are much lower and our economic freedom in Armenia is much greater than in Russia, which means that if we join the Customs Union (EEU), prices-especially the price of consumer goods-will increase. We know that at least a third of the Armenian population is poor. They will become even poorer, and emigration, which is one of the main problems for Armenia now, will increase.”
“If Russians will link our membership in the Customs Union with their commitments to defend Armenia, it means that we do not have sincere relations with them, because that is not how one treats an ally-by blackmailing them…”
“Russians do not pay the Armenian government a dime for the Russian base in Armenia. Furthermore, we cover a portion of their expenses, which is unacceptable. It’s unimaginable that Americans, for example, maintain a military base in Japan or Europe and the expense is covered by the local governments.”
“We have to create alternatives. Otherwise, Russia will continue blackmailing Armenia over relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan, and we have been witnessing that in the last four to five years in particular. Russians sold over $4 billion dollars worth of weapons to Azerbaijan. Four billion dollars! That is a huge amount of weapons!”
“Today, many have forgotten that our main war from 1989-91 was against the Russians, not against Azerbaijan. And our two defeats in Karabagh- in Shahumian and Mardakert- were both fighting the Russians, not Azeris. How did we lose Shahumian? We lost because Russian forces-the special airborne division- were fighting Armenians.”
“We have to show the Russians that we are allies, but that we are equal. We are not just a mean for them to solve their problems with their neighbors. They did that in the 1920’s. They tried to solve their problems with Turkey by giving them and Azerbaijan our lands. They would do that again.”
“Russia can afford to go against the West. Armenia cannot. The path to survival is to keep a balance between West and East. When I was an active diplomat, what we were doing was just this- closer military relations with Russia, but closer economic and cultural relations with the West, to counter-balance one another. Now, we lost that balance.”
My apologies again to you, Hagop, for nipping into this exchange, but, like I said on more than one occasion, dissemination of nonsense needs to be confronted.
“The Russian military is certainly not there to protect the citizens of Armenia; the Russian military is only there to protect Moscow’s interests in that particular region, which it refers to as its ‘southern border’.”
No. not only. Article 4 of the Collective Security Treaty Organization particularly states that the aggression against one CSTO member-state is considered by other participants as aggression against everyone. A provision in the Russian-Armenian Defense Pact, signed in 1995 and upgraded from 2020 to 2044, particularly states that the pact expands the Russian mission in Armenia from protecting only the interests of the Russian Federation to ALSO ensuring the security of the Republic of Armenia.
“By not becoming a member of Putin’s EEU, and instead going thru with the establishment of the European free trade agreement, could never possibly cause Russia to withdraw its troops from Armenia.”
This is a sheer assumption, and a very perilous one, because no one is in a position to foretell Russia’s actions after Armenia has signed the Association Agreement with the EU. The consequences could be gruesome for our defense and national security. Besides, as Sargsyan stated, a free-trade agreement with Europe would not have delivered much, especially as long as Turkey blocks the border with Armenia. Armenia’s economy would have to evolve over 10-15 years to meet free-trade standards with Europe, but in the meantime there is a need to survive, and Armenian people are not willing to suffer during such long period.
“I hope you would agree that a scholar like Ara Papian knows a lot more about those three topics than you, me, or any other commentator on this site.”
Ara Papian is not a scholar in a true sense of the word. I mean, he is not a distinguished academic in the field of international relations or political history or international economics or international law. He is an intellectual and a learned person with some expertise in diplomacy, international relations and law. And he is much more efficient when he handles Hay Daht, rather than when he comments on Armenia’s foreign and security policies. Otherwise, we wouldn’t be hearing the old-as-Adam cliché “we have to create alternatives” in the year 2015. He is, I suspect, well aware of the fact that the era of “creating alternatives” and “keeping balance” under Armenia’s failed policy of complementarity is long gone. The world has evolved, the new Cold War is most likely about to erupt, Russia has become stronger and more assertive, and the West, I repeat, has NEVER stepped in the region to give Armenia the slightest chance to create those very alternatives and keep that very foreign policy balance.
“Do you have eyes but fail to see, and ears but fail to hear?” ~Holy Bible.
john,
Exactly which debate am I losing? Besides that same old Russian nationalistic propaganda nonsense that you’ve been persistently preaching all this time, you haven’t presented anything to counter my arguments. Furthermore, by continuously bringing up the term, “big partnership” that I used in one of my previous comments, of which I explained afterward what I meant, just shows how badly you’re losing this debate. So again, feel free to make a fool out of yourself by bringing all of this up again.
“I just happen to be trained in Russian/Soviet history.” Yeah right! It certainly doesn’t show! I’ve actually had quite a few discussions with Russian nationalists in the past (outside of the Armenian Weekly site) in regard to Russian history, and just like you, they all falsely claimed to be professionals in that department, when in reality, they knew absolutely nothing about their own history.
Here again:
Just because there happens to be some sort of trade going on between two countries, does not mean that they have strong economic ties with one another. Armenia’s biggest trade partner is Europe, but yet, as a result of not going thru with the European free trade agreement, it therefore failed to establish strong economic ties with Europe.
In terms of investments, it’s a fact that Europe and especially America wanted to do something in Armenia, back in the 90’s; however, there were no kind of opportunities presented to them.
I think you just made a revelation about your true identity by falsely insisting that the Russians were viewed by Western Armenians as their liberators. And exactly what did the Russians liberate? The answer is nothing. They occupied Western Armenia for one year, and then they took off, which permitted the Turks to return back over there and annihilate the remaining Armenian population of that region. That certainly doesn’t sound like liberation. Are you sure you’re not writing from the Kremlin?
And since your geography is so poor, Western Armenia does indeed happen to be in present-day eastern Turkey. Or did you actually think that it was situated in present-day Russia?
And by foolishly stating that the Armenian Genocide was not actually happening before the arrival of the Russian army into Western Armenia, again shows how extremely little you know about the Armenian Genocide. For your own education, the Armenian Genocide began in April, 1915. The Russian army did not arrive in Western Armenia until about a year later in the spring of 1916.
“Again, if it was the same Russia, why would she take all of Eastern Armenia into the Russian Empire in 1828, but give away chunks of it in the 1920’s.” As much as you attempt to twist all of this around, Soviet Russia, who happened to be the successor state of the Russian Empire, gave away a huge chunk of the Armenian homeland. What you’re doing here is called denialism, which is very similar to some of those denialist Turks who claim that today’s Turkey is not the same as the former Ottoman Empire, and therefore, according to their ridiculous beliefs, today’s Turkey is not connected whatsoever to the Armenian Genocide.
“Article 4 of the Collective Security Treat Organization particularly states that the aggression against one CSTO member-state is considered by other participants as aggression against everyone. Yeah, so what? One must be foolish to actually think that those particular members besides Russia will come to Armenia’s defense in case of an attack by Turkey or Azerbaijan. As for Russia, it’s military is on Armenia’s soil only to ensure that its interests stay secure in that particular region. The day that Russia no longer has any kind of interests in that particular region will be the day that Russia pulls its military out of Armenia.
“Armenian people are not willing to suffer during such long period.” Actually, the people of Armenia have been suffering ever since its independence in 1991, under three foul regimes; and, they will suffer even more as a member of Putin’s deplorable EEU.
It’s rather hilarious that you would actually compare your extremely poor knowledge of those three particular topics to that of a scholar like Ara Papian, who indeed has deep knowledge in those three particular topics. And, that’s the reason why the Armenian Weekly interviewed him as opposed to an extremely unimportant person such as yourself.
Here in the West (America) Armenia is viewed as a traditional Russian ally. Georgia only moved closer to the West because of Russian abuse of their sovereignty. The Ukraine because of Russian corruption of their country. But what has Russia done to Armenia that we should expect Armenia to move closer to the West? Moreover, the West has enough trouble with Russia already. Why should we want to create more tension?
Unlike Baku, Yerevan would like to be in the European orbit. However, because the latter and the US can’t guarantee its safety in case of Turkic aggression, Yerevan has to ally with Moscow. Armenia is rightly concerned in a war on two fronts–from Baku in the east and Ankara from the west. In fact, in 1993, when Armenians were fighting Azerbaijan, Turkey was about to attack Armenia and force a land bridge–through southern Armenia– to connect Nakhhichevan (which is part of Armenia but given to Azerbaijan by Stalin) to Azerbaijan. Had Turkey attacked and achieved its goal, there would be no Armenia now, let alone an independent Nagorno-Karapagh.