Assad naively trusted Erdogan until he got stabbed in the back

The shoddy defence of Syria afforded by its key ally Russia namely in pandering to Israel to try and keep in good favours with the USA with Israel styling itself as a mediator. Namely refusing to supply Syria with better air defence systems reportedly due to Russia not wanting them to be overcome although a Syrian S 200 system did shoot down an Israeli F16 . Russia instead of supporting Syria right to defend itself curbed Syria in return for Israel not going all out on Syria. Needless to say trying to please both had ended up pleasing no one. When Russia relationship with the west soured further during the Trump government and critically when it invaded Ukraine. Russia still kept being bamboozled by Israel also by now the invincibility myth so keenly promoted by the Kremlin was becoming quite debunked in Ukraine. However Russia needed whatever air defences for it’s own mission in Ukraine and even if the carefully nurtured myth was exploded it couldn’t afford to change its position now and was running down it’s mission in Syria. Which brings us back to an elephant in the room the MSM barely mentioned what kind of ally who has bases in that country and worked in cooperation with that countries military and it’s allies Iran and Hezbollah against militants yet upon Israel attacking sometimes within metres of Russian forces would merely issue notes of protest and summon the Israeli ambassador. Thus Russia had reputation of being a weak partner after all could one imagine such with a US ally with bases in that country no not at all. Clearly Putin hadn’t read or acknowledged Aesop’s fable of the father son and donkey and the moral of trying to please everyone ends up pleasing no one . Thus with the collapse of Iranian and Hezbollah positions in Syria forces of whom their common cause had saved many lives failed to realise that it’s position in Syria would be tied to their fate. Russia reward from Israel was that it didn’t provide much support to Ukraine although this good cop gesture is a token sop when one considers how much support Ukraine has received from other countries . Thus with the rapid collapse of the Syrian army Russia position has become awkward and is likely to have a phased withdrawal the Iranians have already left, clearly not welcome in Syria by the powers it had fought against. Also by now even if Assad who had naivety issues such as his claim in 2011 that Syria would be immune to such unrest due to its anti Israel stance despite the fact it was in rhetoric only. Russia by now had the Astana process which allowed Turkey a formal role and the idlib safe haven all part of what was supposed to be a negotiated settlement but actually became a Turkish protectorate within the territory of a Russian ally and as events would show the death knell of Assad Syria. Russia has shown itself to be naive such as the Minsk agreement over Ukraine which allowed that country to reform it’s military considerably ready to ambush Russia when after 8 years it decided to invade. This principle is also apparent for Armenia who had fought so hard 1991 94 and had a ceasefire on favourable terms would see it’s positions collapse in 2020 after a hiatus. Syria which had fought tennaicously Yet exhaustion corruption and the fact that HTS with extensive support from Turkey was a more effective force than the one driven out of Aleppo in 2016 Something that Armenians should take note of as Assad was staunchly pro Russia yet was deliberately left unprotected in arms and let to be defeated when it was no longer a priority. It will be interesting if the pro Turkish government of Syria continues to recognise the genocide.

Murat, my article makes it very clear that Armenians know very well from their their many past tragic experiences the murderous nature of Turkish leaders such as Erdogan and his predecessors going back to several centuries. Assad was not an angel, neither is Erdogan who simply exploited the internal turmoil in Syria to fish in muddy waters. Erdogan can care less about Assad’s violations of human rights, since Erdogan himself is one of the biggest violators of human rights in the world! The reason Assad turned down Erdogan’s insincere offer is that Turkey has been illegally occupying large swaths of Northern Syria. So Assad replied by asking Erdogan to get the hell out of Syrian territory first before they can sit down and negotiate. If Erdogan was such a peaceful angel why has he been giving speech after speech, the latest today, announcing his expansionist plans in Syria and Iraq? Armenia is next.