A lot has happened in Armenia this past week that has shaken to the core the incompetent, inexperienced, defeatist and deceptive Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who should have resigned on Nov. 10, 2020, the day he signed the capitulation agreement with Azerbaijan.
Pashinyan came to power by exploiting the people’s gullibility and their resentment of the former leaders. He claimed that he would bring peace to Armenia, their sons would no longer die in wars, they would live in prosperity wit
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A peace settlement is in Armenia interest. Armenia had been obsinate and squandered various peace settlement offers which would have given Armenia a better deal than what it is going to have to accept, a case of maximalism and loosing the lot in consequence. However any nation making incremental concessions under the threat of war is being bamboozled and a leader in such circumstances is no leader but a looser. Agreeing to return the Soviet era Azeri enclaves to Azerbaijan should only be done as part of a formal peace agreement otherwise the next will be Azerbaijan demanding state control of a corridor across southern Armenia under the threat of war of course! Whilst the previous prime ministers were schlerototic and the nation in 2018 was rather languid and a change of government was probably needed. Pashinyan is clearly a Soros linked agitator and shows the intolerance of committed liberals. His election in 2021 which appears to have been essentially fair. Should be borne in mind. He as prime minister of Armenia wasn’t the executive of Arktash although Armenia was the protector and guarantor of it and Armenia failed to provide effective support leaving Arktash to its fate echoing the behaviour of Serbia regarding the Bosnian Serbs and Croatian Serbs in the 1990s. However a fact remains moot it was clear that Azerbaijan had upgraded it’s military considerably and Armenia had fallen behind in the arms race this might have been hard to publicly acknowledge at the time along with the fact that the previous government had essentially lost the favour of the people and despite the debacle in 2020 there wasn’t a desire to reinstate them as their conduct was part of the reason for the issues. Although a conjecture at the time the insinuation by the pro Russian Armenians and pro Putin Russians that the defeat was due to distancing from Russia, the losses Russia has endured from it’s invasion of Ukraine two days after signing a friendship agreement with Azerbaijan has made this less convincing in the light of subsequent events. Also relevant is the issue of alliance in the 1990s the west in its honeymoon period with Russia wasn’t too bothered that Armenia was closely linked to Russia however as the relationship deteriorated this becomes more of an issue whilst it’s something Armenia didn’t instigate it like everywhere else is subject to such consequences. Also Armenia membership of the CTSO by being a member it limited what weapons Armenia could purchase from NATO countries whilst Azerbaijan had no such encumbrances. Hence whilst the 1994 line of control was stable there was little reason to question this however upon the defeat in 2020 where Russia refused support and the Turkic countries members of CTSO praised non member Azerbaijan clearly showed that Armenia wasn’t amongst friends in such an alliance.. Ousting Pashinyan doesn’t mean returning to the policies of the previous government either.
Just because Armenians lost the 2020 Karabakh War, then lost Artsakh in 2023, doesn’t mean that the proposed “peace settlements (prior to 2020) were a bed of roses. As I recall, Azerbaijan repeatedly sabotaged OSCE peace proposals and normalization endeavors. The simple fact is that fascistic Azerbaijan has genocidal intentions against the Armenian People.
Do you really think that Azerbaijan would’ve stopped attacking Artsakh, after Armenian ceded vast areas of landed to appease them? Give me a break! What would’ve happened, is what’s happening now: Artsakh’s weakened strategic position would become more vulnerable to further aggression, and the areas ceded away stripped of Armenian Heritage Sites. It’s happening that way, but Azerbaijan’s intentions against Armenians have been genocidal since the 1980s, and prior to that too.
Typically, the proposed peace proposals involved gifting away large areas of Artsakh’s strategic positions, and we now know what has been happening, since Armenians forcibly lost those strategically more defendable positions; throughout 2023, Artsakh besieged & starved, and Artsakh was lost and ethnically cleansed, in September, 2023. Since 2021, Armenia itself invaded by Azerbaijan.
By not accepting a compromise in the 1990s and dragging it on as Azerbaijan grew in strength was a disaster and tragic squandering of the efforts. The Tamil Tigers were similar in failure to compromise and loosing it all. Unita in Angola and the Arabs in 1947 partition plan. If there was a peace agreement and exchange of ambassadors further aggressive would have been less likely. Maximilism rarely serves well. Also the situation with Turkey and Azerbaijan has been a boon to Russia who although not responsible for the racial contention has been able to capitalise on it with its cavalier
treatment of Armenia. It’s likely that as it became stronger Azerbaijan became more ambitious and assertive. Also neither came under international pressure to achieve a settlement hence it dragging on so long. Quite simply Russia has never been to Armenia what the USA is to Israel but tragically due to their desperation Armenia has had to be grateful for their sparse support. Nowadays Russia has it’s own war in Ukraine to attend to, and judges Azerbaijan and Turkey as more important to its interests than Armenia.
hello Laurence Kueffer
your assessments of the Armenia’s and Artsakh’s situations with Azerbaijan as given above are correct and on the spot. You are showing to be proud Armenian and of Swiss parentage then you must have ENDURANCE, TIME MANAGEMENT AND FINANCIAL SKILLS which makes you a good diplomat and career expert specially for the Armenia’s region and affairs.
A compromise is hardly expected to be a bed of roses. Maximilist policies gulled by the alliance with Russia led to a failure to implement a settlement when in a strong position in the 1990s. As result of resting on laurels and misplaced confidence in Russia, Armenia squandered it’s advantage and hence the current situation. In addition Russia now entangled in Ukraine can be less supportive indeed in Syria it’s loyal ally Russia has had to withdraw assets to support it’s Ukraine endeavour. What ought to be beyond doubt is the prevarication and reliance on Russia led to this catasophe and thus hard and difficult questions about national policy are going to have to be addressed in effect a reality check. In recent years Azerbaijan realising that it had the advantage became more ambitious and less willing to seek a compromise as Armenia position became more obviously fragile. With a formal settlement it will become much more difficult for Azerbaijan to agress further prevarication which seems to Yerevan watchword is only going to result in an evermore onerous settlement in the future. The CTSO has as it’s turned out only had the effect of limiting what support Armenia could receive from sympathetic NATO countries and with Russia courting of Azerbaijan and Turkey had left Armenia with the worst of both worlds also the CTSO is ailing Kazakhstan and Tajikistan are distancing themselves from Russia the main patron whilst NATO has gained Finland and Sweden at the same time.