A View from Baku: How Azerbaijan perceives the Russia-Ukraine conflict

As the “frozen conflict” with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) persists, the Ukrainian crisis poses a different challenge for Azerbaijan. “Neutrality” appears to be the watchword as Baku seeks to preserve its ties with both Moscow and Kyiv. While Baku is concerned about the developing situation, it potentially stands to benefit from the trouble with its gas exports to Europe. Given Azerbaijan’s strategic partnership with Russia after the war on Nagorno-Karabakh and its friendly relations with Ukraine (not to mention its significant gas reserves), some may think that Baku is in a prime position to benefit from the looming energy crisis presented by the region’s unrest. However, not all Azerbaijani analysts and politicians support this claim, as many have expressed their concerns over the Russia-Azerbaijan statement of “allied cooperation” and the impact of the outcome of the war in Ukraine on the South Caucasus.

Baku’s “balancing act” was highlighted in January 2022, as Russia’s military build-up on Ukraine’s border was in full swing. President Ilham Aliyev visited President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv and reaffirmed Baku’s support for the country’s territorial integrity. On February 22 – just two days before Russia announced “military operations” in Ukraine – Aliyev was in Moscow to sign a treaty of “alliance” with President Vladimir Putin. For now, Baku will try to gain additional points against Armenia given the unstable international and regional order.