The Washington-based International Republican Institute’s public opinion poll, conducted November 22-December 5, 2021, measured the Armenian population’s views on political, economic and security issues. The survey was funded by the US Agency for International Development.
The poll revealed a key finding: 46 percent of the population thinks that “Armenia is headed in the wrong direction,” while only 34 percent thinks that the country is headed in “the right direction.” This indicates that PM Nikol Pashinyan’s often-repeated boast that he enjoys “the people’s mandate” is not necessarily so. This is a significant shift from the 54 percent of the votes the Prime Minister’s political party received in the June 20, 2021 parliamentary elections. More importantly, the number of those who think that Armenia is headed in the wrong direction increased from 20 percent in May 21, 2021 to 34 percent in July 2021 and 46 percent in December 2021.
However, on another important question, “Do you believe that you or people like you can influence decisions made in our country?,” 66 percent said yes, while 33 percent said no. This is definitely a positive indication for the authorities.
On the next question—“Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way democracy is developing in our country?”—the country was almost evenly split: 51 percent, yes and 47 percent, no.
To the question—“Do you consider our country to be governed in the interest of the majority of people or in the interest of some groups?”—61 percent said it was governed in the interest of “some groups,” while only 31 percent said it was governed in the interest of “the majority.” This reflects negatively on the current government.
On the positive side, 66 percent of the people surveyed said they are “not afraid of openly expressing their opinions,” while 31 percent said they were afraid to do so.
To the question—“How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the work of the following state bodies?”—the top approval was given to a frequent critic of the Pashinyan government—the Office of the Human Rights Defender (68 percent satisfied versus 25 percent dissatisfied); the police (68 percent versus 29 percent); local governments (63 percent versus 33 percent); armed forces (58 percent versus 37 percent); Central Electoral Commission (57 percent versus 33 percent); and National Security Service (50 percent versus 41 percent). The PM’s office came in seventh place with 49 percent satisfied versus 48 percent dissatisfied. The National Assembly came in 16th place with 31 percent satisfied and a whopping 67 percent dissatisfied. This is not surprising as the parliament’s televised sessions frequently show scenes of shouting matches, insults and physical altercations ending with abrupt orders by the parliament’s leadership, representing the Prime Minister’s political party, to turn off the television cameras to hide the disorderly conduct of the rowdy parliamentarians.
Turning to foreign policy issues, those surveyed ranked France on top with 92 percent as having the best relationship with Armenia. Then came Iran (80 percent); the United States (77 percent); China (75 percent); European Union (EU) (69 percent); Russia (64 percent); Georgia (58 percent); UK (47 percent); other (10 percent); Turkey (five percent); and Azerbaijan at the very bottom with three percent.
When asked “Which two countries were the most important political partners for Armenia?” Russia (57 percent); France (50 percent); the US (38 percent); Iran (23 percent); EU (five percent); China (five percent); Georgia (three percent); and India (one percent).
In response to “Which two countries are the most important economic partners of Armenia?” Russia again came first with 61 percent; Iran (40 percent); China (29 percent); the US (16 percent); France (14 percent); Georgia (eight percent); EU (seven percent); India (two percent); and Turkey (two percent).
When asked “Which two countries are the most important security partners for Armenia?,” the answers were: Russia (64 percent); France (32 percent); Iran (31 percent); the US (26 percent); EU (five percent); China (four percent); Georgia (two percent); and India (one percent).
“Which two countries are the greatest political threat to Armenia?” The survey respondents said: Turkey (90 percent); Azerbaijan (77 percent); Russia (15 percent); UK (three percent); Israel (two percent); the US (two percent); and Georgia (one percent).
“Which two countries are the biggest economic threat to Armenia?” Survey respondents said: Turkey (68 percent); Azerbaijan (52 percent); Russia (17 percent); Georgia (10 percent); Iran (four percent); the US (one percent); China (one percent); and EU (one percent).
“Which two countries are the greatest security threat to Armenia?” Survey respondents said: Turkey (88 percent); Azerbaijan (81 percent); Russia (11 percent); Iran (two percent); the US (two percent); Israel (two percent); Georgia (one percent); France (one percent); and UK (one percent).
“The relationship with which two countries needs to be improved for the development of Armenia?” The survey respondents said: Russia (53 percent); the US (35 percent); Iran (29 percent); France (25 percent); China (15 percent); EU (nine percent); Georgia (seven percent); Turkey (five percent); Azerbaijan (four percent); India (one percent); and UK (one percent).
The survey then asked if the respondents agreed or disagreed with the following three questions:
1) 73 percent agreed, and 25 percent disagreed that “Armenia should start a dialog with Turkey and normalize bilateral relations, while pursuing the agenda of recognition of the Armenian Genocide by Turkey.”
2) 70 percent agreed, and 27 percent disagreed that “Armenia must establish bilateral relations with Turkey by putting forward its own preconditions such as Turkey’s non-hindrance of peace in Artsakh.”
3) 44 percent agreed, and 53 percent disagreed that “Under no circumstances should Armenia pursue normalization of relations with Turkey.”
Most survey respondents disagreed with Pashinyan that opening roads with Azerbaijan is beneficial to Armenia. When asked: “How will the opening of transport routes with Azerbaijan impact Armenia’s economic development?” 27 percent gave a positive answer; 59 percent negative.
The same is true for Turkey. When asked: “How will the opening of transport routes with Turkey impact Armenia’s economic development?” 35 percent gave a positive answer; 53 percent negative.
When asked: “How important is the resolution to the Artsakh conflict for the future of Armenia in the next 10 years?” An overwhelming 96 percent said “important.”
The survey asked: “What would be an acceptable solution to the Artsakh conflict?”
— Thirty-five percent said: “Recognition of Artsakh as an independent state.”
— Thirty-four percent said: “The unification of Artsakh with Armenia as a region of the Republic of Armenia.”
— Sixteen percent said: “Establishment of the status of the Artsakh Autonomous Region within Armenia.”
— Eleven percent said: “Establishment of the status of Artsakh within Russia.”
— One percent said: “Maintaining the current status quo.”
When asked: “Is Armenia able to independently defend its borders with Azerbaijan, without the help of any other country?” 46 percent said yes; 53 percent no.
Finally, when asked: “Which country would you prefer to assist Armenia in defending its borders?” 47 percent said Russia; the US (18 percent); France (14 percent); Iran (eight percent); China (two percent); EU (one percent); all three Minsk Group countries of Russia, the U.S., France (one percent); and NATO (one percent).
Whether we agree or disagree, these are the answers that the people of Armenia gave. It reflects their current mindset.
Harut Sassounian
I enjoy reading this opinion pole. We need to admit that we are extremely humbled by positive opinion of our dearest neighbors, our fathers, mothers, sisters and brothers in Armenia. Iran should have been of more assistance to Armenia since its independence. Various challenges affected Iran’s capacity to financially, logistically, security-wise, etc. be as supportive as we should be toward Armenia. But, we admit that we could do much more, and we intend to do more. So, to all Armenian brothers and sisters across the globe, in Iran, in Armenia, US, EU, etc. We are taking steady steps toward improving relationships with Armenian government, investment in Armenia, and restoring strongest of ties between Armenia and Iran. We used to share whatever we had together and we would not and will not hesitate to come to each other’s Aid. Situation is changing for better, our hands will be more open to aid and support and we will do more for Armenia. That is a pledge.