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Why Azerbaijan won’t intervene in Iran — and what it might do instead
Since Dec. 28, 2025, a severe economic crisis has sparked anti-government protests across the Islamic Republic of Iran, questioning the survival of the theocratic regime. The unrest has been followed by a bloody crackdown, which has resulted in between 5,000 and 20,000 deaths, making it one of the largest massacres in modern Iranian history. Inevitably, the uprising raises questions about the future of the Iranian regime. Not only has it lost support among its citizens — whose protests have be
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Interestingly, Azerbaijan is very quiet about the protests in Iran. This very authoritarian and repressive dictatorship has barely issued official statements on Iran, and of course protests are strictly banned and clamped down hard there. Likely because Azerbaijan is afraid of the chaos spreading to itself, destabilize the country and threaten the Aliyev regime, after experiencing protests in 2010-11, which it violently crushed. Increasingly reclusive Azerbaijan, permanently closed all its land borders to all passenger traffic, initially because of the COVID-19 pandemic, but later cited “national security” and “threats of terrorist attacks” as a reason. Another reason is that Azerbaijan is afraid of a huge refugee influx from Iran, if the Islamist regime collapses and Iran descends into civil war, because the Azeri population in Iran is double that of Azerbaijan, and they as potential refugees, would overwhelm and potentially destabilize the country. Aliyev is all doing this to protect his dictatorial regime founded by his father Heydar, and to solidify the ruling Aliyev dynasty, by preparing his wife Mehriban, his two daughters Leyla and Arzu and his son Heydar as his successors.
Clearly Azerbaijan would rather the devil it knows, if the clerical regime fails Azerbaijan value to Israel and the USA will diminsh and this presumably concerns them more than they would like to acknowledge, also whilst running on their own rhythm potentially fears internal unrest although for the current time is still on a honeymoon and riding on the glory from regaining control of the areas outside of Arktash in 2020 and the remnants of Arktash in 2023 . Also the potential of refugees creating it’s own pressures is a factor. Possibly a more secular Iranian regime could be closer to Armenia but the relationship is essentially an all weather one , after all being fellow Shia hasn’t led to a rosy relationship between Iran and Azerbaijan.