The political and geopolitical implications of Ekrem İmamoğlu’s arrest for Turkey

The recent arrest of Istanbul’s Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu has escalated political conflicts within Turkey and critically threatened the country’s democratic situation. Beyond its internal impact, this incident could change Turkey’s geographic and political position in the Middle East, especially its role in Syria and the broader region. This article explores Turkey’s political and geopolitical challenges, analyzing whether İmamoğlu’s arrest serves as an opportunity or an obstacle for Turkey’s regional position.

Consequences for domestic policy

The polarization of Turkey’s political sphere is perhaps best illustrated by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s centralization of power through constitutional changes, court system restructuring and the silencing of opposition figures. İmamoğlu, a member of the  Republican People’s Party (CHP), emerged as a formidable enemy for Erdoğan after gaining national recognition as the mayor of Istanbul. For the leaders of Turkey, his success was especially alarming, as it demonstrated the opposition’s ability to win elections and defeat the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).

Many analysts view İmamoğlu’s arrest as a politically targeted campaign to eliminate a strong competitor for prospective elections. Such actions have invited protests and drawn international condemnation, widely perceived as a decline in democratic values. The resulting internal chaos may also undermine Turkish military strength and readiness, and even international influence and control, shifting focus from domestic policy to broader geopolitical concerns. 

Erdoğan’s political future and the upcoming presidential election

The Turkish presidential election seems to be the next big day for Erdoğan’s political future. His administration has been facing severe domestic and international backlash over the centralization of power and suppression of democracy—challenges that function as a double-edged sword. The discontent among the population owing to the economic meltdown, corruption and authoritarian behavior has been at an all-time high, which in turn has provided momentum to the opposition, despite its continued fragmentation.

Election challenges facing Erdoğan 

Erdoğan’s political survival relies heavily on the following factors:

• Economic crisis: Turkey’s economy has been crumbling due to an increase in inflation, devaluation of the lira and rising unemployment. Government economic policies have been criticized as out of touch and harmful, especially for middle- and lower-class citizens.
• Opposition alliances: The merging of CHP with the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), along with other parties, into one strong electoral bloc could significantly shake up Erdoğan electoral dominance.
• International scrutiny: İmamoğlu’s arrest has attracted global attention, leading to voter mobilization and heightened international inquiry over election fairness. 

Feasible scenarios

• Election manipulation: If, for any reason, Erdoğan perceives a threat to his re-election prospects, he may start re-engineering the elections by imposing strict restrictions on opposition campaigns, suppressing media coverage and influencing court decisions to tilt the election in his favor.
• Political instability: Regardless of the outcome, the election is likely to trigger rampant instability in Turkey, fueled by mass unrest and protests, crackdowns and political volatility, which could last for a considerably long period.
• Shifts in foreign policy: If the opposition is victorious and manages the successful transition of power, then Turkish foreign policy and the course of relations with the West could be radically altered, with a potential restoration of democratic principles.

Impact on Turkey’s strategy in the Middle East

Turkey’s foreign policy in the Middle East is quite complex, involving active participation in Syria, relations with other regional countries and an aggressive geopolitical policy under Erdoğan. İmamoğlu’s arrest may escalate political stagnation and influence Turkey’s outward movements in two key aspects.

Possible reduction of Turkey’s regional influence

The arrest of İmamoğlu weakens Turkey’s ability to strategically maneuver in the Middle East. The unrest following İmamoğlu’s detention could compel the government to shift its focus inward, potentially limiting diplomatic bandwidth and attention for managing affairs in Syria, Iraq and beyond. There is a possibility that Turkey, under political stress, may temporarily lose its political credibility in conflict mediation, counter-terrorist operations and military operations in northern Syria.

Moreover, Turkey’s strained relations with Western allies—already weakened due to democratic backsliding—could further degenerate and affect strategic partnership and economic investments. If the European Union or the United States take punitive action, then Turkey’s geopolitical capability may be weakened significantly.

The tightening of authoritarianism and aggressive foreign policy

On the other hand, Erdoğan appears to pursue more aggressive and nationalistic policies when domestically challenged. Increasing Turkey’s military efforts in Syria following İmamoğlu’s arrest may serve as a distraction from other issues, which in turn would rally support from nationalists. Increased Turkish intervention against Kurdish forces in northern Syria may further consolidate support for Erdoğan while demonstrating Turkey’s regional power.

More authoritarian control typically correlates with an aggressive and decisive foreign policy. With opposition figures suppressed, Erdoğan’s enhanced domestic control may allow for a more assertive regional posture, increasing hostility toward the Syrian regime, heightening pressure on Kurdish groups and strengthening relations with Russia and Iran as counterbalances to the West.

Conclusion

The arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu carries significant implications for Turkey’s domestic and foreign policy arenas. The immediate outcome is a new cycle of political polarization, while the long-term implications for Turkey’s regional impact are still unclear. If social turmoil magnifies, then Turkey will likely be severely preoccupied and unable to focus on Middle Eastern affairs, especially in Syria. If, however, the government concentrates on solving internal problems through a more intensified foreign policy, then the country is likely to be more regionally proactive.

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Vera Yacoubian

Vera Yacoubian is a part-time instructor in Political Science and History at both the American University of Beirut and Haigazian University. She holds a Master’s degree in International Affairs from the Lebanese-American University in Beirut and is currently pursuing her PhD at Ruhr University Bochum in Germany. Yacoubian's academic journey began with a degree in Journalism from the Lebanese University. In addition to her academic roles, she serves as the Executive Director of the Armenian National Committee of the Middle East, where she plays a pivotal role in advocating for the Armenian Genocide and regional issues.

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