Iran’s Policy and Messaging of the West in the South Caucasus

The 2020 Nagorno Karabakh war has significantly altered the power balance of the South Caucasus, effectively dismantling the 1994-2020 security architecture. Experts and academic circles still debate who won or lost due to the war. However, almost all agree that Iran is among the losers. The 2020 war increased Turkey’s influence in the region, apparently brought Azerbaijani armed forces under complete Turkish control and made Azerbaijan and Turkey much closer to the realization of a century–long dream of establishing a direct land corridor. Even more worrisome for Iran was the appearance of Israel in the newly-captured territories along the Azerbaijan–Iran border. Azerbaijan has cultivated strong defense and security cooperation with Israel since the early 2010s. However, the control by the self-proclaimed Nagorno Karabakh Republic of 135 kilometers of borders with Iran gave Tehran flexibility and confidence that those areas would not be used for anti-Iranian activities. The 2020 war changed that situation dramatically, as Azerbaijan allowed Israel to enter those territories under the pretext of reconstruction activities and the establishment of smart villages. 

Iran believes that by inviting Israel to exploit Azerbaijani territories, Baku has changed the balance of power in the region and assumed an overt anti-Iranian position. In the last two years, Iran has issued several warnings to Azerbaijan, primarily via organizing military drills along the Azerbaijan–Iran border. The beginning of 2023 saw relations hitting a new low, after the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran was attacked, and Azerbaijani law enforcement bodies arrested “Iranian spies in Azerbaijan” almost on a daily basis.