Will earthquake diplomacy change anything in Armenia-Turkey relations?

The devastating earthquakes of 7.8 and 7.5 magnitudes struck southern Turkey on February 6, 2023. As of February 12, the death toll passed 30,000, while the number of wounded reached almost 100,000. More than 12,000 buildings were destroyed, and large-scale rescue operations are underway. Besides the immense human tragedy, the earthquake will have domestic and foreign policy implications for Turkey. The country faces crucial presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for May 14. After the earthquake, discussions started about possibly postponing the elections, given the scale of destruction. 

Turkey’s authorities have declared a three-month emergency in provinces affected by the earthquake. Many wonder about the possibility of pursuing an election campaign in the current circumstances. According to Turkey’s constitution, elections should occur by June 18, 2023. Only the start of a war gives authorities a legal option to postpone elections for one year. However, some experts argue that the government may apply to the Constitutional court asking for a one-year postponement claiming that the current emergency equals the launch of military activities. It is difficult to assess what path President Erdogan will choose. Before the earthquake, Erdogan had a high chance to secure another five-year term as president, but the tragedy may bring on political misfortune. As regional and global geopolitics enter a period of volatility and unpredicted changes, no one can guarantee that internal and external conditions will be more favorable for Erdogan in the spring/summer of 2024.