A fragile ceasefire looms over Iran and Israel, brokered in a dramatic late-night push by U.S. President Donald Trump with Qatari mediation, ending 12 days of airstrikes, missile barrages and civilian terror. While diplomats debate the future of the region, ordinary Iranian-Armenians and Persians alike are left to pick up the pieces, their lives upended by a war that, for many, has changed everything.
The announcement came swiftly: a “complete and total” ceasefire, with both sides agreein
Or, subscribe now for unlimited access
By submitting your email address you agree for Hairenik Association, Inc. to send you communication by email.
Already a subscriber?Log in here
This story is FREE for you...
Create a free account to access this and four more articles, and get more sent to you with our e-newsletter.By submitting your email address you agree for Hairenik Association, Inc. to send you communication by email.
Unfortunately, this ceasefire will not last long and hostilities between Israel and Iran are very likely to start again, because Israel does not consider its mission of neutralizing Iran’s nuclear program and ballistic missile arsenal as complete and Iran is waiting for an opportunity to take its revenge against Israel and the United States. The region is a perennial powder keg, for which Armenia has probably no contingency plans, and the last few days have shown, how vulnerable Armenia is to all of this (not to mention against its two very opportunistic, aggressive, expansionist Turkic neighbors, who are watching these events very closely).
The increasingly reclusive Azerbaijan and the already very reclusive Turkmenistan have hermetically closed their land borders to people more or less permanently, not only to control their populations and to restrict access and influence from the outside world, but also to avoid getting dragged into these regional conflicts and to prevent potential refugees from coming in. If it comes to that, should Armenia do likewise (with the latter reason of course), accept only Iranian Armenian refugees, and only allow Armenia to be a transit country to third countries for other people fleeing Iran, not as a final destination? Logistically and monetarily, Armenia is not capable of hosting hundreds of thousands of refugees, let alone more than a million refugees. Not only would this severely drain Armenia’s small budget and resources, it could lead to economic collapse and lead to a huge security threat. The example of Lebanon, is a stark history lesson, why this should be avoided at all costs.
The Middle East will never be peaceful. There are too many unresolved issues among nations and too many foreign actors, and their proxies, poking their noses into businesses of others for their own selfish gains and political agenda to the detriment of those involved with valid grievances. There is political turmoil in just about every other Middle Eastern country, from Lebanon to Syria, Iraq, Iran, Egypt etc., where Armenians have established their diaspora communities and have lived for decades and for centuries. The Armenian diaspora in Iran is perhaps one of the oldest dating back to early 17th century. I believe this came about as a result of forced migration from the homeland to cause major demographic changes in the region, i.e. depopulating native Armenians from their homeland and replacing them with enemy population, contrary to what many believe. For four hundred plus years they have lived there freely and relatively peacefully but things are not like they used to be. I know it is easier said than done, but I believe all these diaspora Armenians should slowly but surely move back to the homeland but unfortunately there is not much stability there these days either. It is also great to see that even though our enemy to the east has pretty much sealed off its artificial borders from entry, Armenia has kept its southern border wide open and has allowed Persians caught in this turmoil find a safe place to weather this storm.
The hostility between Iran and Israel is far from over. I think what has taken place between the two so far was a rehearsal for what is yet to come in the future. I also think both sides were winners and losers. Iran was weakened greatly when all its proxies were either eliminated, like the former Syrian regime, or their capabilities highly degraded, like Hamas and Hezbollah, as a result of which Iran had to engage Israel directly. Iran showed it has the capability to reach Israel to cause damage and create chaos there despite help from the United States and a few other countries. Israel showed how vulnerable Iran can be by conducting calculated surgical and clandestine attacks on the Iranian top leadership and nuclear scientists right from within Iran itself and undetected. Both regimes survived despite call for their ouster and change in government. It is unclear what damages were done to one of Iran’s major and critical underground nuclear sites buried deep in the ground, nearly a hundred meters deep, by the US B-2 bombers dropping 30K pound bunker-busting bombs with the capability to penetrate two-thirds the distance before exploding. It is also possible that Iranians had long moved everything from this underground facility to another in expectation of such attacks. Some reports say these attacks on Iranian nuclear sites have set Iran back several years while others say several months. What is clear to both sides however is that they both realize that they are both vulnerable and capable of hurting each other in a major way. What if Iran is successful in creating a nuclear bomb in the future and can arm its hypersonic missiles with them that can reach Israel under twenty five minutes (hypersonic=mach5 or 5*speed of sound or 1,235 km/hr with a 2,300 km distance between the two countries) and one of them slips through Israel’s not so fully proof Iron dome like many of Iran’s regular hypersonic missiles did! It will be catastrophic for both and the entire region.
Regarding refugees whilst kith and kin is understandable the suggestion put by Steve M that Armenia should only accept Iranian Armenians is appalling and selfish especially to a people who haven’t borne aggression against Armenia for centuries and gave refuge to Armenians when under murderous risks in WW1 .
Whilst there’s an apples and oranges aspect this is yet another nail in the coffin for the Kremlin conjecture that Armenia 2020 defeat was attributable to alienation from Russia
Namely Israel has been able to achieve greater air dominance over Iran in 2 days of what Russia couldn’t achieve in 3 years
The reasons appear to be Israel, US type avionics are superior to Russian analogues
Iran was heavily infiltrated, Azerbaijan and Iraqi Kurdistan appearing to be the conduits
Iranian air defences were inferior to Ukraine’s who has subsequently enjoyed significant support from the west
Iran has been wrongfooted with negotiations with the USA ongoing although on the verge of collapse Israel in cahoots was able to swoop in as part of the good cop bad cop dynamic Israel and the USA engage in at times
Whether Russia alerted Iran or even China remains to be known. Although Russia collusion with Israel against Iran in Syria despite cooperation against militants rendered Iran leery of Russia intentions and ultimately led to the sudden collapse in 2024 of the initial achievement Russia and Iran and Assad’s Syria had made there.
Whilst Armenia doesn’t have an active foreign policy although has begun to become more dynamic and less subservient to Moscow and thus doesn’t sponsor proxy milita to advance and uphold national interests save for the period of support for Artaskh it doesn’t have the trap of inciting and emboldening forces to do it’s bidding and then has to fight itself after its proxies have been knocked back as they began to realise that they were being used as pawns.
The conflict might lead to Tehran being less balanced to Baku if it sees that it’s been the conduit for Israeli infiltration whereas Yerevan hasn’t allowed such activities from it’s territory as far as it’s known.
The conflict also shows how a hegemon will use force to preempt a rising power from challenging it’s position, perhaps this was the trick Armenia failed upon in regard to Azerbaijan after 1994 if it wasn’t able to gain a settlement and let the issue roll on only to find the hegemony was no more by the next ernest conflict in 2020 .
Short term this leaves Iran less able to uphold it’s protection of its border with Armenia and Azerbaijan to continue to be of importance to Israel neither are desirable for Armenia.
Yes, there is no historic animosity between Armenians and Persian (the last war fought between both nations, was the Battle of Avarayr on the plain of the same name on 26 May 451, which was a military defeat for Armenians, but Armenians were allowed to practice Christianity by the Zorostrian Sassanid Empire, on whose side Armenians fought as well) and Persians have indeed helped and provided refuge for Armenians (though some Iranian shahs, who were not of Persian descent, but ironically of Turkic Azeri descent, such as the Safavids, did occasionally persecute Armenians, and forced them to resettle from Nakhichevan to central Iran, including to the then capital Esfahan). However, Armenia cannot absorb hundreds of thousands of Iranian refugees or other refugees, simply because it doesn’t have the money and logistics to do so. It barely provides for the 100,000 Armenian refugees from Artsakh, most of whom are still languishing in temporary accomodations. Other countries indeed ban refugees for selfish reasons as well as for “national security” reasons, in order not to get dragged into neighboring conflicts, such as Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan (which are as repressive or even more repressive than Iran). Looking at other countries in this region, where refugees have been languishing in primitive refugee camps for decades, Armenia should avoid this. The only thing it can do and should do, is to be a transit country for non-Armenian refugees, to third countries. In this highly problematic and volatile region, Armenia is in a survival mode, has to anticipate every possible scenario and calibrate every decision it will make, in order to not to be dragged into a war, but that is unfortunately beyond its control.
There’s no reason that Armenia should be expected to host masses of Iranian refugees however the idea that it should only allow temporary transition for those not of Armenian stock is chauvinist and hypocritical given that many Armenians have been given sanctuary and then citizenship by various countries over the years, when it was no longer safe to live in ancestral lands such as
western Armenia …
As for Artaskh Armenians, Armenia ought to grant them citizenship and not try to seek a return to NK since they would have to be Azeri citizens , and would be expected to revere Alyiev cult and condemn and deny their traditions and Azerbaijan is seeking to agitate for Azeris who had lived in Armenian SSR to return, and the obvious unsaid is that it would claim need to protect them and invade Armenia on the same basis as Germany did with Czechslovakia, as there is a de facto population exchange a formal one as part of the settlement as like that of Greece and Turkey will be the best way. Leaving the Artaskh Armenians like the Palestinians of Lebanon and Syria are amongst their ” brother Arabs ” is a betrayal and deception and Armenia should avoid such a cynical situation with its own brethren.
Many countries don’t accept any refugees, even those from their own ethnic group (like the Arab Gulf countries, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan (the Iranian and diaspora Azeri population combined, is more than twice that of Azerbaijan), Japan, Hungary, etc…), and those who do, are today often very restrictive and very selective about the ethnic and religious background of refugees, and often don’t give them permanent status or residency, also in the West. In fact, many are deported, once their homeland is deemed “safe”, which is today the norm, also in the West.
Pashinyan is totally unwilling to give the Armenian refugees from Artsakh, Armenian citizenship, because they are one of his most bitter critics for abandoning them, and also because Armenian citizenship means, that they will have the right to vote, and potentially vote him out of office. Everybody knows that Pashinyan is doing everything in his power to stay in office, and that includes neutralizing any opposition to himself. The Armenians of Artsakh are very unlikely to receive Armenian citizenship, as long as Pashinyan stays in power.