YEREVAN—A recent statement by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has added a new dimension to ongoing negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Fidan announced on November 6 that Turkey’s relations with Armenia would only improve after the signing of a treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan, marking a shift from their previous commitment to continue talks without preconditions. Fidan said that Turkey views the resolution of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict as key to stability in the South Caucasus, and Armenia-Turkey normalization is tied to the successful conclusion of the peace talks.
In response to Fidan’s comments, Kristine Vardanyan, an MP from the “Armenia” faction of the National Assembly, criticized the ongoing negotiations between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey. She stated that there is no genuine peace process; rather, Armenia is being forced to make unilateral concessions to meet the demands of Azerbaijan and Turkey.
Vardanyan said that the term “peace” in the context of the proposed treaty is misleading. “It is being used to deceive the Armenian public and to improve Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s international image. What, if anything, is Azerbaijan offering in return for these concessions? The negotiations seem to prioritize Azerbaijan’s and Turkey’s interests over Armenia’s national concerns,” she said.
Recent polling data reflects public opinion on Armenia’s ongoing diplomatic engagement with Azerbaijan. According to a survey conducted by Gallup International Association in Armenia, most Armenians do not believe a treaty with Azerbaijan will be finalized by the end of the year. In response to the question of whether a treaty will be signed in 2024, 23.4% of respondents said “rather no” and 41.2% “definitely no.” Just 17.5% said “rather yes” and 8.3% “definitely yes.”
The survey also assessed Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan’s approval rating, which dropped to 34.5% in October, compared to 35.1% in July. That is still higher than his approval rating in May of 27.8%, according to the survey. Meanwhile, 57.6% of respondents expressed negative views about his leadership in October.
Despite criticism from opposition voices, the Armenian government continues to lead negotiations with Azerbaijan. Armenian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ani Badalyan confirmed on November 5 that Armenia had received Azerbaijan’s response to its latest proposals, which marks the 11th revision of the draft document. While discussions focus on border delimitation, security guarantees and the return of Armenian prisoners of war held in Baku, no final agreement has been reached.
While progress on the peace talks has been slow, the recent meetings between Armenian and Azerbaijani officials have focused on border delimitation. On November 1, the tenth meeting of the Joint Commission on the Delimitation of the State Border and Border Security between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan took place at the shared border. The meeting was co-chaired by Mher Grigoryan, Deputy Prime Minister of Armenia, and his Azerbaijani counterpart Shahin Mustafayev.
During the meeting, the two sides exchanged updates on internal procedures to finalize the Regulation on the Joint Activities of the Commissions, signed on August 30, 2024. The document, which was ratified by the Armenian parliament and signed by the Armenian president in late October, officially entered into force on November 1, 2024.
The discussions also focused on the sequence of sections of the border where the delimitation process will continue. Both sides reviewed draft guidelines for carrying out the delimitation work and agreed to set a date and location for the next meeting.
Following the meeting of the commissions, deputy prime ministers Grigoryan and Mustafayev held a separate discussion on issues related to transport communications between the two countries.
In the midst of these diplomatic efforts, tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan continue to simmer, as evidenced by a recent incident in Brussels. The Embassy of Armenia in Brussels has filed an official complaint with other diplomatic missions after an alleged death threat was made by Azerbaijan’s Ambassador to Belgium Vagif Sadigov against Armenian Ambassador Tigran Balayan. According to Politico.eu, the confrontation occurred during a reception at the Tangla Hotel organized by the Turkish Embassy to mark Turkey’s national day.
Sadigov denied the incident, stating that such allegations were “becoming ridiculous.” The Armenian Embassy has not provided further details but has officially protested the alleged threat with relevant diplomatic channels. The incident is a significant development in the already tense relations between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey, which have been strained since the 2020 war in Artsakh. This marked the first time the Armenian Embassy has been invited to an Ankara-sponsored event since 2020, according to Politico.eu.
While peace talks continue, such incidents highlight the volatile nature of the negotiations and the challenges facing Armenia as it seeks to balance its diplomatic engagements with Azerbaijan and Turkey while managing domestic pressures.
Hoory Minoyan
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Nikol pashinyan is national hero making peace with beautiful brotherly Turks
I am from Istanbul, and move to Erivan, and now afford new Mercedes for wife in Toronto
My hero @Charles explain better why Ermenis must get rid of Russian kartoshkas and embrace beautiful brotherly Turks
Turkey showed its TRUE and cunning face one again. This is reminiscent of the 2009 so-called football diplomacy and reconciliation process initiated between Turkey and Armenia and bilateral protocols signing ceremony in Zurich where the two sides, led by foreign ministers of Armenia and Turkey Edward Nalbandyan and Ahmet Davutoglu respectively, agreed on normalization of relations without preconditions and committed to it in the presence of US secretary of State Hilary Clinton, Russia’s foreign minister Lavrov, EU representative as well as the French foreign minister and in front of the whole world but soon after, under pressure by way of blackmail and bribery from Azerbaijan, they went against their words and commitment, failed and refused to ratify the protocols they had committed to, and put preconditions on Armenia on behalf of their Azerbaijani criminal collaborators. They sold their honor to Azerbaijan in return for cheap Caspian oil and multi-billion dollar lucrative treaties to act as the energy hub for transportation of Caspian oil & gas to Europe.
When are our Armenian leaders, not to mention the current inexperienced losers in office, going to learn that these Turkish and pseudo-Turkish hyenas cannot be trusted and their words mean nothing. What else do our cunning enemies have to do to convince our leaders that they have no intention of normalization of relations on equal grounds and without concessions from Armenia, despite all the atrocities and theft they had already committed against the Armenians, that these wolves in sheep’s clothing are never to be trusted? I mean how can you trust to make peace with one genocidal unrepentant enemy, that is terrorist Turkey, that nearly wiped out your nation to seize your homeland for good where you had lived for thousands of years and had established your ancient kingdoms, and another criminal pseudo-Turkish dictatorial MAFIA state, that is 106-year old criminal Azerbaijan, that practically portrays indigenous Armenians as aliens who out of nowhere showed up and landed in their backyards from Planet Mars, an artificial state itself invented on other parts of Armenian homeland seized and misappropriated by a third dictatorial and totalitarian state and empire, that is the Soviet Union, and believe you are on the path to peace and prosperity in the region? To believe in all nonsense you have to be a psychopath devoid of any emotions, a self-loathing beggar, or an unpatriotic traitor to your nation.
Turks cannot be trusted and Turk lovers are traitors.
Is it a coincidence that this shift occurred the day after Donald Trump was elected President of the United States? Expect Azerbaijan to slow-walk peace negotiations by adding condition after condition. Both countries know that, if Azerbaijan were to invade Armenia on January 23 (the day after Trump’s inauguration), he would just shrug and go on with his golf game.
With Trump’s victory in the election I fully expect Azerbaijan to invade Armenia in the very near future. Foreseeing this outcome is the reason I visited my family’s ancestral homeland – probably for the last time – in October. I had a wonderful time and was impressed with the progress our fellow Armenians have made since I last visited the country 17 years ago.
@Martin Zartarian
The Turks will face a very serious defeat if they attack.
Armenia is protected by a Russian base.
The Turks won’t dare.
Russian base = Ukrainian target it seems even the Caspian sea is now within their reach Russia can’t use it’s nukes which are white elephants. With Trump election a ceasefire for Ukraine akin to what Armenia and Azerbaijan had in 1994 is becoming more likely and sanctions on Russia until they withdraw from internationally recognised Ukrainian territory just like Russia called on Armenia pre 2020 conflict.
@Charles, that is why you are so smart! You are amazing analyst
I move from Istanbul to Erivan, and make so much money listening to Western friends who help me introduce beautiful brotherly Turkish politicians to Nikol Civil Contract.
Listen to @Charles, and make lots of money by getting rid of Russian kartoshkas in favor of beautiful brotherly Turks who are gateway to NATO and West.
Now, wife in Toronto has new Mercedes after I listen to @Charles! You can too!
Sevan Peter B
Why the editors allow your bizarre trolling about your wife and her Mercedes car in Toronto is a mystery
@charles
I am your friend. Why are you being bizarre now?
We both want Russian kartoshkas out of Armenia
We both want NATO, which means Turks and West in Erivan
Why you be so silly?
House divided falls. Accept compliments, move on.
My beautiful wife in Toronto now has new Mercedes thanks to me following your advice, or others like you, on hiding with beautiful brotherly Turks against Russian kartoshkas. Hope all Armenians follow your advice!
@Charles,
Don’t be too hard on him. That’s all in his imagination. That’s what happens when you had too much of that famous potent Turkish hashish!
Charlie
your complaints about the editor goes two whys – why are the asbarez editors allowing a turkish agent like you speak?
And also, why are you now deflecting from Sevan Peter B? He’s your kindred spirit, both of you are notorious russophobes, giving half truths for a pro-turkish future in Armenia.
You are a despicable human being, at least Sevan Peter B owns his love of turks.
You should have been a regular comedian at some donor kebab shop but I know you people are not known for your comedy but known for your con games. I can’t stop laughing at you. Who speaks like that? Russian kartoshkas, you in one corner of the world and your imaginary wife in Toronto in another part of the world, your luxury cars an ordinary unskilled person can lease for a less than a week’s pay, and all that fake money you make turning political tricks, is truly hilarious. My guess is that you flunked out of high school and are no more than a cab driver!
Of course, you say that, Charlie.
You and Sevan, quite clearly serve your Pashas.
You don’t want Armenia to have any defences against the Turks at all.
You and Sevan are such dhimmis and Turk lovers.
@Charlie
You really do talk tosh, Turk lover.
Russia is fighting, in a proxy war, the combined might of the 30 countries that make up Nato.
And guess what!
For all their vaunted talk of “technological superiority”, the West has been utterly unable to defeat Russia.
As for Ukrainian missiles, they are unable to fire them without American guudance.
The Americans have been told to their face that any such missile attack will be regarded as an American attack on Russia so they will never dare.
Get it into your head, Turk lover, that Armenia’s enemy is the Turks not Russia.
And if you want Russia out then present an alternative.
If not Russia, who?
Go on, Turk lover, who will come to Armenia’s aid?
Who?
Hmm Robert , let’s see apart from technical support staff and volunteers in their own capacity there has been no dispatch of NATO forces to Ukraine . Russia has failed to even control parts it claims annexations of truly weird logic there on their part and frankly embarrassing but then they are byzantines so have a different rationale. It’s true Ukraine has been unable to defeat Russia with all the proxy support it’s recieving. There is pragmatic actions draw Russia out but not escalating enough to provoke a direct war this ploy may or may not work time will give the answer to that one. With Trump election it’s looking likely that he will take a more definite position which is to tone down support for Ukraine if they don’t accept a ceasefire along the line of control and in turn to increase support for Ukraine and pressure Moscow if it doesn’t agree to the same there are already signs that Russia is quietly open to this, Kremlin shill and unofficial spokesman hence with more candour than an official can deign to from his officially independent position Andrew korybko writing in global research on 7th November has an article along these lines. This man pre Azeri attack stated how Armenia must withdraw from internationally recognised Azerbaijan as per four UN rulings on the matter and mockingly stated how even Armenia didn’t recognise the Arktash statehood,not mentioned of course was that Russia always deterered Armenia from such an action. When the war erupted mocked how Armenia was using dumb rockets and shelling and praised Azerbaijan for use of precision weapons drones etc without mentioning that Armenia was using Soviet and Russian projectiles and Azerbaijan using Turkish and Israeli. Yet when Russia invaded Ukraine and has caused an exponentially greater scale of destruction with “dumb” weapons has strangely nothing to say about the irony and hypocrisy clearly not expecting people to cross reference his double talk and duplicious statements yet consistently reflects the Kremlin position on matters. The Turks are Armenia enemy with much blood on their hands over the years however this doesn’t make Russia as friend for this reason as it’s actions have clearly shown. Similarly Georgia isn’t an enemy but clearly barely sympathetic and Iran whilst friendly has its own interests. Thus Armenia needs allies like any self respecting nation hence Russia is wrong to monopolise its relationship with Armenia especially when it is close to Turkey and Azerbaijan whom it sold weapons to when it was obvious they would most likely be used on its ally Armenia – some friend i say! As a people with a long diaspora in Europe and Asia especially it’s quite reasonable for Armenia to cultivate ties with such sympathetic countries Greece France India USA and Russia is wrong to monopolise and prevent Armenia from developing it’s own relationships especially after its effective monopoly era after the first war led to Armenia advantage slipping away to Azerbaijan hence questions previously Impossible and unnecessary began to be asked. Russia invading Ukraine and it’s entanglements there and taking losses to the TB2 drones just like the Armenians did a little over a year before asked interesting questions was it actually Russian limitations being exposed after all these were crack troops on a mission to capture Keev, rather than choices which was the insinuations popular from Russia and pro Russian Armenians during the 2020 conflict and the period after? I don’t want Russia out as such but an honest balance and assessment and an end to the self gratifying deluding notions of mother Russia the saviour of Armenia when it’s not actually and an Armenia which has many allies around the world which will help it to be in a stronger position in talks with Turkey and Azerbaijan to formally resolve issues. Of course there will still be be bad blood and animosities such as between Greece and Turkey but at least it’s within the framework of a regulated relationship and not of one country bamboozling another which is sadly where Armenia Got itself by playing for time after 1994 and too late realising that it’s advantage had slipped away like the sunset. Hence Azerbaijan is just being bully boy by condemning Armenia for sourcing arms from friends when Armenia under Pashinyan is exercising sovereign rights of which Azerbaijan is being egregious in threatening violence if they seek weapons for national defence echoing behaviour such as Turkey over Cyprus and Israel over Iran and nations which don’t kow tow to it. Indeed spare a thought about Syria Russian ally with bases yet Turkey is allowed to occupy parts Israel routinely attacks and Russia to curry favour with Israel declined to supply air defence, can you imagine a US ally with bases with consent of its government being treated like this by foreign militaries ? Last and not least this has nothing to do with Pashinyan as he has no influence on Syria at all so the it’s because of him excuses can be kicked into the long grass.
@Charlie
All you’ve managed to achieve, Turk lover, is to show everyone that you failed your Engliah exam at school as you have no idea what a paragraph is.
Iran.
Robert Whig
Sophistry about punctuation and claims I failed school exams doesn’t answer the facts that I’ve stated. Perhaps answer facts I’ve stated and refute them then and less ad homiems and suppositions will help to affirm your arguments.
@Neco
The Persians are only marginally better than the Turks.
When they ruled Armenia, the Armenians had to live as dhimmis.
They cannot be trusted.
The Armenian Church will never, ever tolerate an alliance with Muslims.
Your forecast is unrealistically too bleak. The terrorist cesspool of Azerbaijan does not have the military competency even to put a dent on Armenia let alone invade it. They tried in 2016 and lasted for 4 days only and ran back to their caves with their tails caught in-between their legs. That is why they dragged terrorist Turkey into the latest conflict to do the fighting for them. For 44 days Turkey’s terrorist defense ministry was in charge of Azerbaijan planning, dictating and conducting the 2020 joint Turkish-Azerbaijani invasion of Armenian liberated territories with NATO-supplied F16s flying over the Armenian airspace. Last time I checked Azerbaijan was not a NATO member to have F16 fighter jets. They were sneaked into Azerbaijan by Turkey after their joint military exercises in Azerbaijani occupied Armenian Nakhijevan next door. Add to that the fact that we have a defeatist loser in charge of Armenia with zero knowledge of military who the best he could do was to waste hundreds of millions of dollars buying Russian SU-30 fighters without the missiles, never used, instead of investing that money on buying thousands of much more effective kamikaze UAVs (drones).
Why do you think Turkey today, as well as pre-2020 invasion, has become the mouthpiece for Azerbaijan and ties any normalization of relations with Armenia on the resolution of this conflict in Azerbaijan’s favor? Azerbaijani chicken-hawk leader who was MIA in the first Artsakh Liberation War, spending his time in Turkish and Russian casinos while our leaders of the time were sending his countrymen back to Baku in body bags three decades ago, who today with full Turkish backing and his fake bravado is barking aloud, was practically begging the former Armenian leaders for a fraction of what he got handed to him by the current Armenian incompetent traitor-in-chief Pashinyan without even firing a shot. Our problem today, as in the past, is not Azerbaijan but Pashinyan and terrorist Turkey. Remove these two from the current situation and Azerbaijan will start singing a whole different tune and one that we are quite familiar with. Don’t give credit where credit is NOT due!
The levels of self belief are of the scale for some people. Clearly if the Turks were as hopeless as some claim they would never have entered the south Caucasus from their origins in Siberia. Armenia fought well and Azerbaijan was politically quite dysfunctional in the first conflict but by 2020 the equipment and training of Azerbaijan unrestrained by tie ins with Armenia fueled by petrodollars was insurmountable hence the loss in 2020 .
The purchase of the four SU 30 without weapons was a major folly only a cynical ally would supply such a thing without armaments bit like being given a gun without ammunition or of a calibre where the correct ammunition is unavailable…
India is helping Armenia to make them more useful by actually supplying munitions and support for them something ally Russia wouldn’t do.
Needless to say guided drones missiles for the same money would be much better spent for national defence especially for a small nation like Armenia.
@Charles,
I will never agree with you that this was Azerbaijan’s own doing. No matter how much you try to ignore the active participation of Turkey’s terrorist defense ministry in this and try to give an undue credit to Azerbaijan simply because of equipment upgrade and training by Turkey, the fact remains that Azerbaijan is not and has never been capable of starting and ending a large scale war, in this case an invasion, because they simply are incapable of doing these things. Planning large scale wars are different from planning and conducting skirmishes. I will even go as far as to say that all the sophisticated weapons used in 2020 joint Turkish-Azerbaijani invasion, such as Turkish and Israeli supplied UAVs, not to mention NATO supplied Turkish F16s, were in fact being operated not by Azerbaijanis but by those who supplied them to Azerbaijan.
You will never convince me that Azerbaijan which was begging Armenia for the return of even a single district as a gesture of good will and an Azerbaijan that a few years prior to 2020 invasion in 2016 had tried on its own with all the firepower that it had amassed for the last two decades and not only failed miserably but lasted less than a week before throwing in the towel was able to pull this off a few years later in 2020 on its own you are sorely mistaken. All you are doing is to theorize and philosophize as to what could have happened when all the evidence is right in front of your eyes, revisit events leading to the invasion and check YouTube videos, and see with your own eyes as to who was actually in charge of this invasion and that was not Azerbaijan! Pardon my French, as Americans say, but you are barking on the wrong tree!
It’s natural to have different views.
It was obvious that Azerbaijan had support even if less publicised. Can’t do it without help as the saying goes. Look at Israel so heavily supplied by the USA to blast away at Gaza and Lebanon etc or Ukraine against the Russian invasion. Both would be different affairs without such backing Ukraine would have been overcome and Gaza not as heavily bombed as much has come from recently supplied munitions. In 2016 the conflict ended as Russia pressured Azerbaijan to stop as it although a key arms supplier to Azerbaijan from their hydrocarbon proceeds had warm relations with Armenia also the EU and OSCE were opposed to the use of violence to effect aims. However Azerbaijan did end the conflict with limited territorial gains small enough to be brushed off by Armenia but Armenia didn’t gain any land whereas Azerbaijan did so on that basis were more successful. Even though 2020 was a defeat there was a spectacular scene of three Azeri tanks being knocked out within 10 seconds from anti tank missiles nevertheless it obviously wasn’t able sway the overall outcome. It seems obvious now that Azerbaijan had checked out with Russia that they wouldn’t object to their attempts to reassert authority over internationally recognised territory at the time under Armenian control especially the areas outside of N-K. Whilst Russia wasn’t violation of the letter of the alliance it was certainly breaching the spirit by allowing an ally to be compromised and rendered weaker in addition to having been a significant weapon supplier. It’s almost like the USA supplying weapons to nations hostile to Israel and telling them they had to balance their interests as if they didn’t others would. In such a situation Israel would cry foul and accuse USA of betrayal and messing them around but dependant Armenia had to be a silent woman to Russia dalliances and endangerment of its security. Also few wars are pure in the sense that one or more usually both factions are supported by other nations. As the 2016 conflict only lasted 4 days it clearly didn’t reach a natural conclusion and there’s the risk of conjectures say like what if Russia had persued Ukraine more assertively in 2014 rather than let it fester for 8 years allowing Ukraine to rebuild and prepare it’s a safe bet to say they would have reached Keev without too much difficulty although the USA would have been able to stop all domestic electronic payments Via SWIFT which would have paralysised Russia… Even if Turkey provided much more proactive support in 2020 than in the 90s partially driven by vastly developed economic links forged in the post Soviet era in a way Armenia was unwilling and by its tie in with Russia unable to do. It still doesn’t alter the facts that Azerbaijan had gained the advantage and perhaps it would have been more attritional if not having coordination with Turkey and other namely Israel who must have helped with satellite images in addition to weapons. Context is useful say Iraq which was battle hardened fought Iran to standstill despite Iran having a much greater population and industry was trounced by the USA coalition only three years later. For Europe 20th century Germany which had pushed close to Paris in 1914 was driven back and surrendered in 1918 yet in 1940 was able to overrun the same lands in weeks where it had failed a generation before. The Soviet Union driven far back almost to Moscow in 1941 would take Berlin in 1945 . Thus some days for you others against you. Germany at times excelled others failed completely. Whilst treachery plays a part sometimes it’s hard to see that having it ones way doesn’t mean one will always have it ones own way. Even if the same race sometimes they maybe better led or worse and overall equipment may vary. Look at how football squads can vary in matches and leagues even nations/teams traditionally considered strong may lose their advantage indeed a winning team players would have to be gradually phased out as they would gradually become less effective and to keep the same individuals for years would court disaster. Old guards have to be retired in time even if with full honours. Hence those who had served well in 1994 needed to pass on to younger men even if Pashinyan seems like Putin ironically prefer personal loyalty over ability. Thus the battle hardened men then were out of date with all the changes weapons used in 2020 would have seemed sci fi in 1994 when even packhorses were used by both sides in the rugged terrain. Whilst we seem to concur about Russia especially regarding it’s cynical attitude to Armenia and hypocrisy exposed over it’s invasion of Ukraine and it’s subsequent discredited reputation so carefully nurtured by Putin on some matters we will have our own opinions and that is natural and reasonable.
100%
From Lavrov’s brain to your pen; this is Russian dis-information in it’s purest form.
Any Armenian who voted for Trump should be ashamed of themselves. Trump supported Azerbaijan against Christian Armenia in his previous 4 years. I will say it again, Armenia needs to find its way to developing nuclear arms or securing a nuclear power for protection.This should have been done long ago.
Nuclear weapons not that it’s deterred Ukraine against Russia nor Hamas Hezbollah and Iran with supposed nuclear weapons possessor Israel
It makes more sense to trust a black Scorpion in your pocket than to Turks. Tell’m to go to hell.
In 1915 Armenians trusted the turks to leave them in peace.
In the 90s it was the Artsakh conflict, and now it is lack of ‘treaty’ that is the hurdle. I think this is just a ruse.