Azerbaijan: The invisible hand behind Russia’s oil exports to Europe

In the shadow of world events, Azerbaijan has secured a curious role in the global oil and gas industry, playing both sides of a complex energy and geopolitical chess game. As the West has imposed sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, the world has been led to believe that Europe has cut its reliance on Russian fossil fuels. However, behind the scenes, Azerbaijan is facilitating a secretive but crucial oil trade with Russia, ensuring that Europe’s energy needs are met while allowing the continent to maintain its tough stance against Moscow.

Despite the sanctions, Russian oil continues to flow to European markets, circumventing the restrictions through Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan has long been a vital cog in this geopolitical machine, especially with its strategic pipelines and proximity to Russia. By routing Russian oil through its territory, Azerbaijan is providing a lifeline to Russia and helping Europe maintain its energy supply. This arrangement allows Europe to avoid the cold winters without publicly admitting reliance on Russian resources. As a result, Russia continues to profit from its oil exports, bypassing sanctions, while Europeans proudly display their resolve against Putin’s government.

This convoluted partnership benefits both parties. It’s a way for Russia to evade sanctions, sell its oil and keep the money flowing. For Azerbaijan, it elevates the country’s standing as an indispensable energy hub for Europe, boosting its geopolitical relevance. Europe, meanwhile, can keep its lights on and homes warm while maintaining the appearance of punishing Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. It’s a delicate balance of necessity and deception.

While this energy deal helps power Europe, Azerbaijan continues to parade itself globally. Nowhere is this more evident than in the festivities surrounding the Formula 1 races in Baku, where the world gathered to celebrate on April 30, 2023. The Baku City Circuit was transformed into a site of exhilaration, speed and global attention. Media outlets covered the races, and fans from around the world cheered for their favorite drivers, blissfully ignorant of the Azeri government’s ongoing blockade of Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh), which culminated in the ethnic cleansing of the region’s Armenian population that September.

This celebration stands in stark contrast to the human rights violations committed by the Azerbaijani government. While the world rejoices in Baku, Azerbaijan continues its oppression against the Armenian population in Artsakh. The brutal war that ended with Azerbaijan’s victory in 2020 was followed by a nine-month blockade and the genocide of the indigenous population of Artsakh, displaced in a manner of days with their homes, families and heritage destroyed. Reports of atrocities, ethnic cleansing and human rights abuses in Artsakh barely make it into international headlines, as the world seems content to turn a blind eye in favor of political convenience and energy deals. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan tortures and mistreats Armenian prisoners of war, beheading POWs while broadcasting them on the internet.

The F1 celebrations in Baku symbolize this disturbing duality. On one hand, Azerbaijan presents itself as a modern, thriving nation eager to engage with the world through sports and culture. On the other hand, it perpetuates a campaign of aggression against the Armenian people, wiping out communities and erasing centuries of cultural heritage. The juxtaposition is staggering, but for Azerbaijan, it’s a carefully crafted public image that shields the government from widespread scrutiny while protecting the spoils of oil and gas deals.

Azerbaijan’s growing influence in the global oil trade and its military victories over Armenia are closely tied to its relationship with Israel. The two nations have established a strong partnership, with Azerbaijan benefiting significantly from Israeli military technology and intelligence. During the war in Artsakh, Israeli-made drones played a pivotal role in Azerbaijan’s success on the battlefield. This collaboration has extended beyond military hardware, as oil, arms and intelligence-sharing agreements have solidified the bond between the two countries.

While Azerbaijan benefits from these global partnerships, Armenia faces an uncertain future. The conflict in Artsakh has not only devastated the region but has also left Armenia geopolitically isolated. The U.S., while sympathetic to Armenia’s plight, has made it clear that it will not offer military support against Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Dan Baer, former U.S. Ambassador to the OSCE, suggested during a Helsinki Commission hearing on September 10 that Azerbaijan’s aggression could be a mere negotiating tactic, urging Armenia to remain open to diplomacy. However, the reality on the ground is far from optimistic. Armenia faces a tough road ahead, with limited options for securing its borders and defending against future aggression. The U.S. recommendation that Armenia should distance itself from Russia adds another layer of complexity, as Armenia has historically relied on Russia for military and economic support.

Armenia’s literal and metaphorical cold winters represent the difficult choices the country must make in the face of regional hostility and international indifference. Without strong allies, Armenia navigates a dangerous landscape, one where its sovereignty is constantly under threat.

Azerbaijan’s role in siphoning Russian oil to Europe represents global energy politics’ complex and often morally ambiguous nature. While Europe continues to seek ways to punish Russia, the reality is that energy dependence on nations such as Azerbaijan makes it difficult to sever ties fully. The West’s focus on maintaining energy security has allowed Azerbaijan to strengthen its position on the world stage, even as it commits atrocities and human rights violations at home. Meanwhile, Armenia remains on the brink, facing the consequences of a conflict that has gone largely unnoticed by the international community. As Azerbaijan profits from its oil deals and Israel bolsters its military, Armenia’s future remains uncertain, with cold winters ahead and few allies to turn to.

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Ara Nazarian, PhD

Ara Nazarian is an associate professor of Orthopaedic Surgery at Harvard Medical School. He graduated from Tennessee Technological University with a degree in mechanical engineering, followed by graduate degrees from Boston University, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology and Harvard University. He has been involved in the Armenian community for over a decade, having served in a variety of capacities at the Hamazkayin Armenian Educational and Cultural Society, the Armenian Cultural and Educational Center, Armenian National Committee of America, St. Stephen’s Armenian Elementary School and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation.

Latest posts by Ara Nazarian, PhD (see all)

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