Lebanon-Syria relations: A new era of cooperation?
The fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024 signaled a shift in Lebanon-Syria relations. While the two countries have long had political, economic and security ties, they now must navigate a new bilateral landscape without Assad. In this article, I address the historical context of Lebanon-Syria relations within the framework of the geopolitical changes brought about by Assad’s departure. I also consider long-term prospects for strategic cooperation as well as the role of Western expectations and Hezbollah in shaping this new era.
The geographic and political history of Syria and Lebanon has always been intertwined. Their relationship has been shaped by legacies of colonialism, civil wars and changing global powers. The idea of Greater Syria, which incorporated Lebanon, was present under the Ottomans; even after Lebanon was officially established under the French Mandate in 1920, Syria continued to regard Lebanon as part of its sphere of influence.
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When Islamists are calling the shots in Syria – with its current leader, a jihadist and former al-Qaeda member, at the helm, I would caution on any optimism about that country. Likewise, I would caution on any optimism about Lebanon as well, because while the Islamist Hezbollah has been weakened by Israel, it hasn’t been destroyed and it could very well recover and resume calling the shots in that country, if it is not kept in check by Israel, because the Lebanese state is incapable and afraid of confronting Hezbollah. After all, it is folly to assume that Islamists can become democrats and voluntarily leave power, when this has never occurred, because Islamists use democracy as a means, not an end, to come power, entrench themselves and discard democracy (like Erdogan successfully did in Turkey). In the Middle East and North Africa and in the Muslim World, a real and stable democracy is wishful thinking and any optimism is misplaced – especially when Islamists are often the most powerful actors and the main opposition, not genuine secular democrats who are marginalized. The Arab Spring turned into a fiasco, precisely for this reason. There has never been a successful genuine democracy in the Arab and Muslim World to date.