Lebanon-Syria relations: A new era of cooperation?

The fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024 signaled a shift in Lebanon-Syria relations. While the two countries have long had political, economic and security ties, they now must navigate a new bilateral landscape without Assad. In this article, I address the historical context of Lebanon-Syria relations within the framework of the geopolitical changes brought about by Assad’s departure. I also consider long-term prospects for strategic cooperation as well as the role of Western expectations and Hezbollah in shaping this new era.

The geographic and political history of Syria and Lebanon has always been intertwined. Their relationship has been shaped by legacies of colonialism, civil wars and changing global powers. The idea of Greater Syria, which incorporated Lebanon, was present under the Ottomans; even after Lebanon was officially established under the French Mandate in 1920, Syria continued to regard Lebanon as part of its sphere of influence.

Syria’s influence shaped political dynamics during the Lebanese Civil War (1975-1990). In 1976, Lebanese Christians invited Syrian forces to combat Palestinian militias. However, Syrian intervention later turned in favor of Palestinian and Muslim groups, tightening its grip over Lebanon. This culminated in a military presence that lasted from 1976 until 2005. During this period, Syria exerted substantial control over Lebanon through direct military force and coercive policies.

Syria’s suspected involvement in political assassinations is arguably its most controversial position. The 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri was thought to be in Syria’s interest, triggering mass protests and the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon. Nevertheless, Syria continued to exert control through its key ally, Hezbollah, which depended on Syrian logistical assistance—especially for the transfer of Iranian weapons—and maintained close relations with Assad’s regime.

Syria’s formal recognition of Lebanon’s sovereignty in 2008 marked a profound diplomatic change in the region. However, issues like border control and Hezbollah’s military operations remained unresolved. The porous Lebanese-Syrian border has continued to serve as a hotspot for smuggling and militant activity, as well as a strategic corridor for Hezbollah to transfer arms to Syria. Even after the downfall of Assad, Hezbollah’s presence in Lebanon remains a point of contention, shaping the internal balance of power and geopolitical considerations.

Effects of Assad’s departure on Lebanon-Syria relations

Assad’s fall in December 2024 ushered in a period of significant shifts. The interim Syrian government, led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa, has abandoned several policies of the Assad era, particularly concerning Hezbollah. These changes have reshaped Lebanon’s political landscape, border security and economic cooperation.

Assad’s fall has significantly weakened Hezbollah’s military and logistical capabilities, which had long relied on Syrian support. For decades, Syria had been a pivotal transit point for Iranian arms to Hezbollah. Now, with the new Syrian government distancing itself from Iranian militias, that supply line has lost a vital artery, making Hezbollah more susceptible to Israeli actions and opposition from within Lebanon.

Israel has increased airstrikes against Hezbollah’s positions in southern Lebanon, taking advantage of the group’s diminished logistical support. Furthermore, Hezbollah’s Iranian backers have reduced funding due to Syria changing allies, worsening Hezbollah’s financial situation. This has resulted in greater discontent among the rank and file of Hezbollah, with recent reports of internal divisions.

Security and border stability

The Lebanese-Syrian border has always been a center for smuggling, arms trafficking and militant activity. After Assad’s departure, both Lebanon and Syria have realized the necessity for stronger border control to prevent the spread of extremism. Recent diplomacy has focused on the need for mutual border policing and intelligence networks between Syrian and Lebanese security forces. Lebanon has simultaneously increased its military activities near the border to control illegal crossings and prohibit Hezbollah from using Syrian land to transfer arms. With backing from Western allies, the Lebanese Army has initiated operations to dismantle smuggling networks historically supported by Syria. This change in security policy marks an attempt by Lebanon to assert its independence and reduce foreign influence in its domestic affairs.

Economic cooperation and trade agreements

Given the tense political climate, Lebanese-Syrian economic cooperation stands out as an important opportunity for the two countries. While Lebanon is facing an acute economic crisis, it can benefit from trade agreements with Syria in the agricultural and energy sectors. On the other hand, Syria is looking to rejoin international markets after suffering from years of global isolation. Cooperation in energy infrastructure is one of the most important domains. Lebanon has suffered from perennial electricity shortages, and negotiations have started towards a synergistic energy grid that would subsidize electricity to Lebanon while providing Syria with economic benefits for cooperation. Furthermore, Lebanon has increased its agricultural exports to Syria, as both countries are keen on reviving trade agreements that were suspended during the Syrian civil war.

Diplomacy and refugees

Formal diplomatic engagement between Beirut and Damascus could help resolve complex issues, such as the fate of Syrian refugees in Lebanon. With an estimated 1.5 million refugees currently residing in the country, Lebanon is aiming for a systematic return. Meanwhile, Syria struggles with resettling displaced people without straining its already fragile economy.

Western interests and impact

The evolving Lebanon-Syria relationship has garnered attention from the Western front, notably the United States and Europe. Allies of Washington remain hopeful that the new Syrian government will distance itself from Hezbollah and Iran. The West remains focused on maintaining Lebanese sovereignty and curbing Hezbollah’s smuggling activities. Additionally, European nations are keen on stabilizing Syria to accelerate refugee repatriation and reduce the burden of migration.

The West has also backed Saudi-sponsored negotiations between Lebanon and Syria aimed at strengthening the Syrian government’s diplomatic foothold in Beirut while limiting Hezbollah’s influence. Additionally, the EU has indicated potential economic incentives for Syria if it undertakes reforms that meet international norms—primarily those targeting Hezbollah’s illicit activities.

The Hezbollah factor and its influence on Lebanon’s internal politics

Hezbollah continues to be a critical factor in Lebanon-Syria relations. While in the past, it once enjoyed logistical and arms support from Syria, now this synergy has collapsed. The new government in Syria is reportedly hostile toward Hezbollah, with some political factions openly criticizing the group’s role in Lebanon.

As its financial resources dwindle, Hezbollah has turned increasingly to smuggling along the Lebanese-Syrian border, where fierce tensions continue. The group’s weakened position, coupled with Israeli military pressure, has forced a reassessment of its strategies. While Hezbollah still holds significant influence in Lebanon, its ability to operate freely in Syria has diminished, potentially reshaping its regional role.

Domestically, Hezbollah’s weakening has led to shifts in Lebanon’s internal politics. President Joseph Aou’s administration has taken steps to consolidate state authority over arms, signaling a move toward reducing Hezbollah’s military influence. The Lebanese Army has been actively dismantling Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon, a move supported by Western allies. This shift has emboldened political factions opposed to Hezbollah, leading to renewed calls for disarmament and greater state control over security matters.

Moreover, the declining impact of Hezbollah has created opportunities for new political coalitions. Some independent lawmakers and reformist movements have begun to advocate for a Lebanon free from foreign military presence. In the recent municipal elections, while Hezbollah’s enduring strength was evident in some parts of Beirut and Baalbek-Hermel, there was also an increasingly visible response to Hezbollah’s dominance. At the same time, Hezbollah’s weakening grip has facilitated diplomacy, with Lebanon seeking economic and security assistance from Gulf and Western countries.

Obstacles and prospects

These developments, however, are not without their challenges. Sectarian divisions within Lebanon continue to hinder a unified approach to Syria. Additionally, Syria’s transition to a new government will test its ability to commit to diplomatic normalization with Lebanon while managing internal power struggles. Yet, despite historical grievances, the potential for renewed cooperation offers a glimpse of a more stable and constructive partnership.

The post-Assad era presents both obstacles and opportunities for Lebanon-Syria relations. If both countries can overcome their historical distrust, they may find themselves on the path to a future grounded in shared strategic interests and mutual benefits.