The diaspora as asset and vector

Armenia’s adversaries view the diaspora not only as a potential asset for the homeland but also as a vector for influence operations. This dual reality — the diaspora as both a vital national strength and a channel for external pressure — is starkly illustrated in the Foreign Intelligence Service’s (FIS) recent public reports and defines one of the most complex challenges confronting Armenia and its global community today. In an era of hybrid warfare — where disinformation, cyber operations, recruitment and political cultivation often matter more than conventional battle lines — the Armenian diaspora finds itself on a contested front.

The FIS Annual Report on External Security Risks of the Republic of Armenia for 2025 and the 2026 update provide a sobering yet constructive framework. They document a shift away from high-probability large-scale military confrontation toward multilayered hybrid pressures. While the likelihood of major escalation with Azerbaijan is assessed as low in the near term (FIS 2025 Report), persistent risks remain from certain narratives promoted from Baku — such as references to “Western Azerbaijan” — and from intensified influence activities, especially in the lead-up to elections (FIS 2026 Report). Cyber threats to critical infrastructure, malign information campaigns, and efforts to activate networks or cultivate seemingly “homegrown” political activity are highlighted as growing concerns.