Op-Eds
What are the prospects of Turkish-Armenian normalization?
In the geopolitical context of the South Caucasus, Armenia and Turkey reflect an interesting fabric of shared history, a century of animosity predated by centuries of prudent cooperation and coexistence within the Ottoman Empire. Following the Second Artsakh War in 2020 and the loss of the remaining parts of Artsakh (Nagorno-Ka
Or, subscribe now for unlimited access
By submitting your email address you agree for Hairenik Association, Inc. to send you communication by email.
Already a subscriber?Log in here
This story is FREE for you...
Create a free account to access this and four more articles, and get more sent to you with our e-newsletter.By submitting your email address you agree for Hairenik Association, Inc. to send you communication by email.
It is also worth noting that it is always Pashinyan, who from a position of weakness, is eager and pressing for a full normalization and a peace treaty with Turkey and Azerbaijan, whereas these two Turkic countries are not all in a hurry and are happy with the status quo.
Even if Pashinyan offers concessions at the expense of Armenia’s, which these two Turkic countries press for and which is entirely possible, they will only be satisfied, when they have Armenia on a leash and becomes their puppet.
A full opening of borders for people looks unlikely, especially with Azerbaijan, which has more or less permanently closed all its land borders for people crossings, except for cargo trade by trucks.
A full normalization and a peace treaty with Turkey and Azerbaijan for Armenia under the “best” conditions, would be a cold peace, in which Armenia would make minimal possible concessions and keep the Syunik corridor under its jurisdiction and control, and have its territorial integrity restored and recognized by Azerbaijan and Turkey. It is doubtful that Armenia would economically benefit, let alone prosper, with such a cold peace. Even this scenario could be wishful thinking, being situated in a region with such unsavory neighbors, where idealism is a luxury and a fantasy.
Unfortunately geopolitical realities coupled with population realities means Armenia will always be negotiating with its Turkic neighbours from a position of weakness. Unless Armenia is armed with nuclear weapons it will not be treated as an equal partner given Turkey’s economic, geopolitical and military strength and capabilities. Pursuing a strategy to establish peace and normal relations with all its neighbours represents Armenia’s most important and optimal strategy given its traditional ally Russia is now strategically cooperating with Armenia’s Turkic neighbours.
I keep saying that one has to be realistic , Russia is an unreliable ally and cannot be trusted . The US is not that much better either. Geography will not change and listening to armchair generals at home and diaspora heroes overseas will not benefit anybody in Armenia . It would be best to work out a modus vivendi with one’s close neighbours .
Nicely written and realistic analysis, devoid of the usual hysterics anytime subject includes Türkiye. In any case, unfortunately given its size and weight, Armenia today does not register high in the strategic considerations of Türkiye. Especially with so much happening elsewhere. Decades of stay under Russian thumb to counter an imaginary Turkish threat has consequences obviously. I still do not know why a full normalization with Turkiye today is not possible, especially since the Karabagh issue is behind us and Turks are not held back by Azeris anymore.
I despise this genocide denier and Islamo-fascist Turkish terrorist-in-chief Erdogan who loves to take the moral high ground and lecture others on what they should and should not do while he totally disregards the sovereignty of their neighbors by sending in his terrorist troops, armed with NATO supplied weapons, deep into their territories and without their consent to conduct terrorist activities and illegally setting up military bases in their territories in violations of international norms and laws. He is responsible for the civil war in Syria. He was hell-bent on toppling Bashar Aassad early on until he realized he could not causing millions to flee and seek refuge elsewhere, millions in today’s so-called “eastern Turkey”, aka occupied Western Armenia in particular. He armed and financed ISIS criminals to destabilize Syria and to terrorize and murder rival Shia Muslim populations and to uproot non-Muslim populations and desecrate their houses of worship, and in one particular case blowing up and destroying an Armenian Genocide Memorial Complex.
This Turkish terrorist also allowed the treatment of injured ISIS terrorists in Turkish hospitals and used them, by giving them Turkish passports, and the Syrian refugees to exploit and blackmail the Europeans for various concessions from them by threatening them to flood Europe with them. He also recruited and transplanted these ISIS terrorists in Armenia’s backyard to fight against Armenians on behalf of his pseudo-Turkish Azerbaijani brothers-in-crime to punish Armenians for their pursuit of the Armenian Genocide resolutions around the world and for the liberation of Armenian territories occupied by his pseudo-Turkic kin while his own genocidal state, born out of the terrorism and murder of the natives, is in occupation of most of the Armenian homeland. The Armenian border with terrorist Turkey has been closed since 1993 for no reason other than for the hatred and punishment of the freedom seeking Armenians and I hope it remains closed forever. The worst thing you can do is to appease a bully and conduct business with a unrepentant terrorist state.