ColumnsTashjian's Take
After Nagorno-Karabakh, Iran may be next
Political relations between Azerbaijan and Iran are deteriorating amid signs of closer security and diplomatic cooperation between Baku and Tel Aviv. Israel’s Foreign Minister Eli Cohen’s comments to reporters in Jerusalem on March 29 about his “agreement” with his Azerbaijani counterpart to form a “united front against Iran” have raised eyebrows in Iran. This announcement was followed by the establishment of the “South Azerbaijan National Council of Statehood” (SANCS) backed by
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Iran had neglected Armenia primarily as it was focused on Shia causes in Muslim countries and thus regarding Armenia that being a non starter. However its relationship with Armenia had developed in recent years but Armenia was more Russia sphere of influence anyway. Nevertheless with increased Turkic irredentism and diminished Russian standing there is a sense of a need to pay more attention to Armenian security
It would be interesting to write about how Russia, EU , US, China and India view the budding relationship between Baku and Tel Aviv. Is the US secretly encouraging and funding this relationship ? It would make a lot of sense. As you say , the Zangezur corridor would seriously weaken and isolate northern Iran and so the US would support that. On the other hand it could also potentially destroy Armenia as an independent country. On the other hand the EU and India may have different goals to further their trade with Iran and across Asia. Armenians appear to be living at the whim of others and not in charge of their destiny.
It is interesting that SANCS (South Azerbaijan National Council) liberation movement for northern Iran, was set up in Finland soon after Turkey agreed to let Finland join NATO. Was that part of the deal that Finland struck with Turkey? If that is true, it shows that countries will bargain with the national sovereignty of other countries( for example Iran) to promote their own survival , i.e Finland needs NATO to defend against Russia. Realpolitik in real time !!
Iran made two mistakes with great consequences.
-FIRST, Iran should have never recognized that so called Azerbaijan as an independent country without irredentist claims or change of country’s name (like Grece did to North Macedonia).
-SECOND, Iran should have supported ARTSAKH 100%.
Now Iran is reaping the benefits of it’s failed policy of not supporting ARTSAKH against petro-dicator regime of fake Azerbaijan.
The caviar diplomacy of so-called Azerbaijan might work for sometimes, but it has limitations too and regime in Baku knows it as well.
The economy of that fake country of Azerbaijan is heavily dependent on oil and gas pipelines. Iran and Russia can easily isolate and cutoff all pipelines from Azerbaijan to Turkey enroute to Europe.
the presence of Zionists and Turkey’s provided Islamic mercenaries at Iran’s border is a red line that Iran can never tolerate regardless of what kind of government Iran has. The same for Russia, access to Caspian Sea by NATO via Azerbaijan is inconceivable, as it will be existential threat not only to Russia but China too.
As long as oil and gas flows out of Azerbaijan and Iseral, turkey and Uk (BP with 20 billion investment) are handsomely rewarded the Caviar diplomacy of Petro dictatorial regime of Baku will continue.
As barksakhye in ca,l dont trust either how they tortured armenians also they didnt say anything to turkey during artsakh war they are simply jihadist hates christian for armenia supporting assyrian state within current syria lraq lran turkey lands best option cuz l grew up in lran and my wife lebanese armenian both we knew experienced arabs persians turks hate us
Ah yes, Iran. Anti-US because of the CIA’s overthrow of the prime minister in 1953, and strengthened by Dubya’s bungling of Iraq.