ColumnsTashjian's Take
Pashinyan’s Foreign Policy Challenges
Caretaker PM Nikol Pashinyan and his party’s euphoria from election victory will soon disappear, since for them, the post-election period will be full of foreign policy challenges linked to the post-war regional dynamics in the South Caucasus. These challenges range from Armenia’s ba
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I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again. Had we just returned the surrounding regions minus the Lachin Corridor, then we would have prevented this to a large degree. Simply lamenting the current situation and pretending we had no choice or were “screwed over” is simply not an argument. Pashinyan’s screaming about the Sevres Treaty while the Artsakh negotiations had not been doing well was also a factor.
In 1998 Armenia agreed to return the surrounding regions in exchange for Artsakh becoming part of a “common state” confederation-type structure with Azerbaijan. In 2001 Armenia agreed to return the surrounding regions (and provide a “corridor” to Nakhichevan) in exchange for Artsakh’s independence. In 2011 Armenia agreed to return the surrounding regions in exchange for a promise that Artsakh’s future status would be governed by a binding referendum. Azerbaijan rejected all of these proposals.
The only proposal that Azerbaijan agreed to was the 1997 proposal that returned the surrounding territories but did not grant Artsakh any status. While that proposal did not say Artsakh was part of Azerbaijan, it also did not say Artsakh was independent; Artsakh would have simply existed as an unrecognized entity. You can say that that is “de facto independence” and that is good enough. But the leadership at the time failed to convince the population to see it this way or to give up the fight for de jure independence.
Before the war, the latest proposal on the table mirrored the 1997 one, except with Russian instead of international peacekeepers and except that Armenia would give up 5 and not 6 regions.
For Armenia, the only way out to the World is Turkey and Turkey has no interest or benefitfrom blocking Armenia, except Nagorno-Karabakh occupation, which is almost over or will be over in a couple of years.
I hope policymakers of Armenia would also recognise this reality and develop a foreign policy accordingly.
Armenia was never against compromise but the return of Ancient Armenian lands, to a made up Turkish invading gas station nation, as means to peace would have never ever lead to an agreement of Artsakhs recognition and independence. The real problem is the years of gross misrule by the Karabakh thieves which led to massive emigration and now useless incompetent traitor Pm who is currently in way over his head pretending to be relevant. No surprise that the first thing he did was to destabilize the military by installing more incompetent people just like himself. And Turks and Zionists being the ultra opportunists realized it was the right time to change the current situation. The only answer is unity of all Armenians FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD.. A unified oneness including direct support and decision making from the diaspora is the best option. This way you don’t have to pick and choose between a western side or an equally useless Russian side, who basically can care less about Armenians or Armenia itself. The diaspora is Armenia’s ONLY true friend. The sooner Armenia proper understands that the better.
Stop fooling yourselves. 90% of the diaspora has no connections to Armenia and wants nothing to do with the Armenia. Armenia can survive without its diaspora, Armenia will not survive without Russia. This is the painful truth most Armenians do not want to hear.
Join NATO.
No country has ever prospered under Russian control.
Like the Turk above stated, once Turkey opens it’s borders you can link up with Europe. Turkey has no reason to keep borders closed, itself looses economically having it shut. Turkish Airlines can fly to Armenia as well, bringing tourists including Turks who have never visited Yerevan. Boycott of Turkish goods can stop.
Maybe its better that the Armenian diaspora stop giving to Armenia. Then the Armenian authorities will stop their thieving and stealing of donations and re-learn that Russia is their only true ally in the region (Iran has a stake in Armenia’s security too).
Until the day comes when they can learn self sufficiency and be truly independent – that part will take diaspora help; They can survive without the diaspora but they will probably never learn to prosper.
When you lose a war you are faced with unpalatable choices. Had we won the last war or at least kept majority of the teritories, the situation now would have been very different. We would have been negotiating from a position of strengh.There are many scenarios and accusations as to who lost us the war or who sold out our nation for thirty pierces of silver. The only undisputed facts are that we were unprepared for it either intentionally or unintentionally and also we did not have Mr. Putin on our side. It is true Russia is perusing its own interests at the moment to an extent that she disregards any defence pacts made with Armenia but our recent anti Russian and pro west policies have not done us any favours. No western nation is going to fight our wars and physically come to our rescue. Not only it is not in their interest to take on Turkey and Azerbaijan but also it is a very long way to send troops, planes etc through hostile territories to fight for someone else’s cause, no matter how just and honourable. Our only help is from Russia and Iran where we have had common interests. We need to convince them that our common interests are still very much valid. We should never give up our common border with Iran even if we allow Azeris access to Nakhijevan. In fact we should not give up our claims to any of our ancestral lands even if we live with the shame and agony of tempirarily losing them. Politics and circumstances change and we need to wait and work for that happy day. We need to take example from Germany and Israel. As far as preparation and rearming is concerned we should persue that with vigour. The diaspora is a critical part of our nation and should help in every aspect, both financially and politically plus technologically. It is essential for Pashinyan to form a “national interest” cabinet to take the nation along this difficult but existantially important pilgrimage.
We saw what happened to Cyprus and Greece under Turkish Nato Co. Membership
Armenia and the Azeris are both part of the CIS but the Azeris can buy drones from israel and canada and Armenia supposedly can’t? Pashinyan repeatedly said he asked for assistance from Moscow during the war and the Russians say he did not? What is missing here? Do we trust a second rate journalist who thinks the iskander missles are relics of the 80’s when in fact they were made in 2006?