At the time of this writing on Oct. 5, 2020, the war between Armenia and Artsakh on one side, and Azerbaijan, Turkey and Islamist mercenaries on the other, is continuing with countless deaths of soldiers and civilians, and widespread damage of cities and villages. This week, I will analyze the role of key participants in the conflict.
AZERBAIJAN
Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, refusing to accept Artsakh Armenians’ right to self-determination and following up on his numerous threats to solve the conflict militarily, launched a massive attack against Armenia and Artsakh on Sept. 27, 2020. Before the war, Azerbaijan secured the support of the Turkish armed forces and a large number of terrorists from Syria paid by the Turkish government.
The Presidents of Azerbaijan and Turkey have ignored all appeals for ceasefire, including a joint statement by France, Russia and the United States. Aliyev announced that there will be no ceasefire and no negotiations until Armenian forces leave Artsakh. Azerbaijan and Turkey not only want to occupy Artsakh, but unleash a second genocide on Armenians. This is an existential threat to the Armenian people. It is a war against all 10 million Armenians worldwide. Fortunately, Armenians have understood the serious danger to their existence and have joined hands to repulse the enemy. After the Azeri/Turkish attack fails, Armenia should refuse all proposals for negotiations and safeguard the land of Artsakh which has been liberated with the blood of our brave young men. Azerbaijan and Turkey have attacked not only Armenian military targets, but also civilians in major cities and villages. This is a war crime for which Azerbaijan and Turkey should be held responsible in front of the European Court of Human Rights and the International Court of Justice.
Armenia should also file a complaint with the United Nations (UN) since Azerbaijan is a signatory to the UN “International Convention Against the Recruitment, Use, Financing and Training of Mercenaries.” The Convention calls for punishment “by appropriate penalties which take into account the grave nature of those offenses.”
TURKEY
Turkey should have no role in the Artsakh conflict. Erdogan keeps talking about one nation, two states (referring to Azerbaijan and Turkey). Why does he then not accept the same concept for Armenia and Artsakh? He has no right to speak about Artsakh’s status, since Turkey itself occupied Northern Cyprus in 1974.
For far too long, Turkey has armed and trained terrorists in Syria, Iraq and Libya, and now in Azerbaijan. The international community is just as guilty as Turkey for not sanctioning it for its terroristic activities. Erdogan has learned that he will get away with murder, and no country will say a word. It is time to muzzle Erdogan and check his expansionist desires.
Besides the physical war, there is also a war of propaganda and falsehoods being waged by Azerbaijan and Turkey. As usual, Turkey is lying about the most obvious facts. If it can deny the genocide of 1.5 million Armenians, it can also deny that it has military forces and advisors in Azerbaijan fighting against Armenia and Artsakh. Turkey also denies that it has recruited Islamist terrorists to fight in Artsakh.
TERRORIST MERCENARIES
Hundreds, if not thousands, of Islamist terrorists have been recruited by Turkey from Northern Syria to go to Azerbaijan to fight against Armenia and Artsakh. Many of their phone calls have been recorded in recent days stating that they were misled by Turkey into believing that they will only perform guard duties, not fight in a war. The terrorists stated that they want to leave, but are prevented from doing so. They have come to Azerbaijan after Turkey offered them a couple of thousand dollars a month. Despite the denials of Azerbaijan and Turkey, Armenia’s National Security Services have recorded the terrorists’ phone calls speaking in Arabic and Turkish and advising their fellow terrorists not to come to Azerbaijan.
RUSSIA
Russia is the only world power that can stop the fighting as it has done many times before. President Vladimir Putin is unable to pressure Azerbaijan and Turkey to declare a ceasefire or unwilling to do so, until he can secure concessions from Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey for his own benefit.
The problem is that Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) which has a mutual defense agreement with Russia and several other former Soviet states. So far Armenia has not applied to CSTO to come to its defense from Azerbaijan’s attacks on the Republic of Armenia, announcing that it can protect its own territory. Armenia should ask CSTO to secure its protection from attacks by Turkey and Azerbaijan. If Armenia applies and CSTO rejects to fulfill its treaty obligations, then we will know that CSTO is a paper tiger. There may be behind-the-scenes discussions between Armenia and CSTO to come to Armenia’s rescue at the appropriate time, before Armenia is in danger.
Supporting Armenia is also in Russia’s own interest. First of all, the Caucasus region is considered Russia’s sphere of influence which Turkey should not be allowed to encroach. Secondly, the Islamist terrorists that Turkey has sent to Azerbaijan could end up being a threat to Russia’s security. The sooner Russia pressures Azerbaijan and Turkey to send the terrorists back, the better for its own interests.
Armenia is also displeased that Russia sells sophisticated jets and missiles to Azerbaijan. This is inappropriate conduct for a strategic ally of Armenia. It is understandable that Russia is making these military sales for its own economic benefit, but Armenians have to constantly remind Russia that it is undermining its own reputation in Armenia by supplying weapons to its enemy.
IRAN
The Iranian government has always maintained a neutral position in the Armenia Azerbaijan conflict. In the current war, Iran was alarmed when Azeri missiles fell inside its territory, killing a child. Iran also expressed its serious concern with Azerbaijan importing mercenary terrorists which could pose a danger to Iran’s security.
ISRAEL
It is shameful that the Israeli government continues to provide sophisticated drones and missiles to Azerbaijan in return for Azeri oil. Would Israel, if it existed during World War II, have sold weapons to Hitler in return for financial gains? No wonder Armenia last week recalled its newly-appointed Ambassador from Tel Aviv. American Armenians should impress upon American Jews and American Jewish organizations that Israel’s arming of Azerbaijan is morally repugnant, and it will be held responsible for the deaths of Armenian civilians and soldiers. Even during the height of this war, scores of Azeri cargo planes have been seen in Israel loading advanced weapons for Azerbaijan!
FRANCE
France is the only country in the world that has told the truth about the conflict. French President Emmanuel Macron declared that Azerbaijan was the one that initiated the attack on Artsakh and also confirmed that Turkey has sent Islamist terrorists to Azerbaijan. It is not clear what France will do beyond mere words, nevertheless, Armenians worldwide appreciate the French position.
UNITED STATES
The United States, if it wanted to, could also pressure Turkey to stay out of the Armenian-Azeri conflict. Unfortunately, despite Pres. Trump’s statement that he will look into the conflict, nothing has been done. Trump’s close friendship with Erdogan does not give Armenians any comfort that the United States will play a moderating role in the conflict, particularly at a time when Trump is infected with the coronavirus.
The only positive action coming from the House of Representatives is its planned adoption of Resolution 1165 which condemns Azerbaijan for its attack on Artsakh and denounces Turkey for its participation in the war on the side of Azerbaijan. Going beyond condemnation, the United States should sanction Azerbaijan and Turkey, cut off all military and foreign aid to both countries, and designate them as terrorist states!
CONCLUSION
Armenia cannot rely on anyone but its own people to defend its homeland. It is very encouraging that Armenians worldwide have come to the support of Armenia and Artsakh donating funds and humanitarian supplies. All Armenians have to continue to counter Azeri and Turkish military and propaganda attacks. When Azerbaijan sees that its military has failed to yield any results, it will be forced to admit that Artsakh will never become a part of Azerbaijan. After these vicious Azeri and Turkish attacks, no Armenian will agree to have the Artsakh people live under the brutal rule of the corrupt dictator Aliyev.
Harut Sassounian
Russia is the only world power that can stop the fighting! Why is Russia not moving in? What is Russia waiting for? – another Genocide?
Could be Russia expecting that Armenia/Artsakh win again, so it does not get its hands “dirty” by participating in this war? Or perhaps get into action only if Armenia (not Arsakh) is in danger, whatever happens with Artsakh? Remember when Azerbaidjan attacked Tavush, Russia begun some military excercises soon. Perhaps Russia is limiting his protection only to the “official” Armenia. I’m just asking and wondering…
I believe Armenia has a defense pact with Russia to secure the Armenian borders from Turkey only. Joint Armenian and Russian forces control and protect the Armenian border. Russia has no such obligation in regards to Artsakh. The security guarantor of Artsakh is Armenia. Russia conducted military exercises as a warning signal to NATO member Turkey getting involved militarily in Russia’s backyard. I think Turkey’s warning to Armenia, by top Turkish officials, was the reason for Russian’s reaction after Armenian forces foiled an attack by Azerbaijan at the border with Armenia in Tavush region which resulted in massive Azerbaijani losses including Azerbaijani special forces trained in Turkey. I would say Russia is primarily concerned about her own interests in the region and often times this overlaps with Armenia’s interests.
Turkey shut down Russian su plain & killed one of best pilot on the ground Syrian & Turkish border what Russia did Zero ,Russia gifted S 400 to turkey , what Russia sold to his best friend Armenia S 300 .Russia gave Steak to turkey , sold bone to Armenia, friend never do this to his friend . Wake up Armenian!!!
This is terrorist Turkey’s proxy war on the Armenians through artificial Azerbaijan and the criminal leadership of Azerbaijan is a tool for the Turkish mullah and terrorist-in-chief Erdogan in his many attempts throughout the region, and now in the Armenia’s backyard in the South Caucasus, to resurrect the now-defunct Ottoman Empire. Delusional Erdogan, with his Napoleon Complex, is trying to implement the failed and mythical “Land of Turan” from the Mediterranean to China and Armenia is an obstacle to that dream. Terrorist Turkey in the last decade or so, under the leadership of Erdogan, has been busy destabilizing countries in the region creating internal conflicts and then taking advantage of such situations to send in criminal Turkish armed forces in a mission of land grab Erdogan considers as part of the collapsed Ottoman Empire. The Turkish involvement and presence in Northern Syria, Northern Africa, Northern Greek Cyprus, in the Greek Mediterranean Waters and in the Russia’s backyard are clear indications of such plan.
This war was preplanned in advance and jointly by artificial Azerbaijan and terrorist Turkey. Their joint military exercise in occupied Armenian territory of Nakhijevan was the last phase of this plan. They chose to attack at a time when Russia is preoccupied with the situation in Ukraine and Crimea, as well as Belarus, the United States is preoccupied with presidential elections, and the entire world is preoccupied with the Corona Virus Pandemic. What they needed to begin their attack was an excuse and they accomplished that by military provocation not at the line of contact but at the Armenian border in Tavush region which resulted in major Azerbaijani losses, including Azerbaijani generals, and a slap on Turkey’s face for destroying Azerbaijani special forces trained in Turkey.
The criminal leadership of artificial Azerbaijan would never contemplate, let alone dare to start such a widespread attack along the entire line of contact without securing the backing of terrorist Turkey. The presence of Turkish military personnel and hardware left behind after their military exercises in Nakhijevan and moving them to strategic locations, such as the ancient and occupied Armenian city of Gandzak (Ganja) airfield from where they conducted their Arial attacks on both military and residential targets in Artsakh and Armenia. The use of NATO supplied Turkish F-16 attack planes is further proof of that. This airfield was later destroyed by the Armenian forces and by the order of Arayik Harutyunyan the president of Artsakh. A move that perhaps saved the lives of many innocent Armenian civilian potential victims and a stern warning to Turkey and Azerbaijan.
The international community has so far been keeping silent instead of condemning terrorist Turkey and Azerbaijan for their indiscriminate attack on the peaceful Armenian populations and I believe their lack of action has a lot to do with their multi-billion dollar investments in the Caspian oil and pipelines transferring badly-needed energy supplies from artificial Azerbaijan to terrorist Turkey, via Turkified Georgia, and then onto the European markets.
Hopefully this new conflict will wake up a lot of Armenians who are russophiles. Turkey shot down an Armenian fighter jet over Armenian airspace. Russia did nothing. The fact that there are still Armenians out there who believe that Armenia would not exist without Russia is beyond me. Turkey does not sell weapons to Armenia but Russia sells weapons to Azerbaijan- let that sink in.
Then why does Turkey not invade Armenia? It’s not like NATO or the EU would do anything. The EU celebrated a Turkish leader’s birthday recently, so much for our EU friends. There is renewed violence in Eastern Europe, coups in Central Asia, and now a mess in the Caucasus. We can thank NATO for arming, financing, and protecting Turkey. Russia going to war when they know Turkey won’t escalate it to the point of total war is pretty stupid. You clearly have no clue what you are talking about.
This war was brought to us by our NED (i.e. CIA) and Soros funded Pashinyan regime. Despite their sins, both real and perceived, both Kocharyan and Sargsyan avoided a destructive war like this. At the end of the day, Artsakh is Armenia’s fight, not Russia’s. Russia will protect Armenia with nuclear weapons if need be, but, like I said, Artsakh is not Russia’s fight. Russia, which is Armenia’s ONLY ally, is providing Armenia massive amounts of weaponry on a regular basis, and is also protecting Armenia’s border with Turkey so that Armenian forces can concentrate on defeating Azerbaijan… and also so that Americans like you here can be here to badmouth the only nation on earth that ensures Armenia’s existence…