FeaturedHeadlinesInterviews
Past the Tipping Point: An Interview with Ara Papian
WATERTOWN, Mass. (A.W.)—In April, I conducted an interview with Ara Papian, former Ambassador of Armenia to Canada (2000-06) and president of the Modus Vivendi Center, at the Armenian Weekly offices in Watertown. A former diplomat, Papian’s perspective is that of a strategist with a long-term vision. During the interview, we discussed the current geopolitical situation in the Caucasus, including Armenia’s decision to join the Russian-led Customs Union, military ties with Russia, U.S.-Armen
Or, subscribe now for unlimited access
By submitting your email address you agree for Hairenik Association, Inc. to send you communication by email.
Already a subscriber?Log in here
This story is FREE for you...
Create a free account to access this and four more articles, and get more sent to you with our e-newsletter.By submitting your email address you agree for Hairenik Association, Inc. to send you communication by email.
it is more important for Armenia to find it’s inner strength to build itself from within on all fronts – in all ways to achieve it’s greatest potential as a nation as a people and as individuals to excel in the world today and in the future –
this does not mean being at war with anyone or looking to take sides or to balance powers or to get closer to one power over another – but to find it’s very own unique and massive power utilizing its own potential in the world today –
For a seasoned diplomat, this is so full of such flight of fantasies, avoidance of basic truths and realities and as such explains so much of why Armenia is in dire straits it is today.
Naked truth is, Armenia is one of the only remaining Russian outposts jutting into NATO. Russians have been using Armenians as a blunt tool, just like they have done a century ago, and still on the losing end.
Fact is, there never was and never is a military danger from its border with Turkey. So no need for Russian bases and soldiers on that border. This is not a basis for good relations obviously.
This esteemed diplomat has mentioned every fantastical possibility except the obvious one. Find a way to overcome historic grievances and establish productive and constructive relations with Turkey or Azerbeycan on the basis of equality and justice. One will guarantee the other. You will still have the problem of asking politely for the Russian bear to leave you alone.
In my view-very briefly-Republic of Armenia has to be ¨Finlandized¨.
She cannot easily opt for the other better one .i.e,. to be like a Switzerland in the tumultuous area she is in.
As to Artsakh Nagornyi Karabagh,she can always opt to be like APRINCIPALITY,SUCH AS ANDORRA. For all to know, latter also was a bone of contention between France and spain for centuries, then both countries came to a compromise to declare it as such and a FREE TRADE ZONE.Mostly it is spanish8rather Catalan) ,much less French,very similar to the demography of NK.Governed by (as a formality)by pres. of France and Archbishop of Seo D´Úrgell,next SPANISH(CATALAN) PROVINCE TO IT.mOST OF ALL THIS WOULD PROBABLY EASE THE TENTION NO NOT BETWEEN RA/ARTSAKH AND Azerbeijan, but also very much please the big brother of latter great Turkey.
Which implies the satsifaction of this latter, that Armenians there could not achieve total independenc e,which however, like Andorra Outwardly is so,whereas if you travel over to Andorra you will immediately note that greaat Majority population(like Artsakh ) is indigenous Catalan…(so called Spanish, thus also pleasing The Spanish Kingdom).People of to understand that great Turkey just simply thinks and imagines itself the total Power of the area and …it will suit us just fine to let her think so……
We shall have a couple of Azeri MPs in Parliament of NK(formality rather) while business will thrive there, importing and exporting to nearby countries as well as far away japan,China etc.
For nowadays Business and Economic issues are MUCH MORE IMPORTANT THAN FEELING AS AN EMPIRE, GREAT bRITAIN NAME , (NOW SHRUNK IN TO u.k,TOMORROW PERHAPS JUST PLAIN ENGLAND,AS SCOTALND IS TO OPT FOR INDEPENDENCE IN THE FALL(AUTUMN).
We have to look at things -in my modest view-as above, not one sidedly and imperiously….
Hasgcoghin parev
Mr. Papian’s interview with Nanore Barsoumian was candid, and his vision on the future of Armenia is commendable. However, looking at the reality of Armenia, in areas of security, economic growth and political freedom, I view Armenia’s faith somewhat differently than Mr. Papaian. For one, as a country, since independence, we have performed miserably. We have had governments in place that are fully occupied in self serving prophesies of enriching themselves by robbing the country blind, while most Armenians live in abject poverty and continuously migrate out of the county as hopelessness has become a common reality. Corruption, nepotism, lack of free and independent media, lack of the rule of law, highly controlled business environment by the oligarchy has made Armenia poor, helpless, weak, and undesirable for most to enjoy the fundamental rights to live as a decent human being. As a poor, weak, and hopeless country, it is very doubtful that we can survive as a free and functional nation. It is no longer a matter of choice or balancing between the West and Russia, but it is a matter of lacking the luxury to chose. Therefore, my guess is: Armenia is clinging to Russia as a last resort for survival. Starting from our membership in the commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and now the Customs Union (CU) it all points to the direction of further coexisting decisions to be made for future survival of our nation. As a last resort, as the Russian Empire expands, I would not be surprised if we soon see an Armenian Federation with Russia. Welcome back Soviet Union in a different form!
I fully agree with your analysis. If we can get a handle on the corruption then there will be many Armenian and other companies in the West that would invest in Armenia, fewer people would migrate, there would be a better response to donating to charitable organis ations etc. putting Armenia on a sound basis. As things stand now whatever our foreign policy may be is of little significance.
….. “I think it’s in the interests of the U.S. to have a stronger Armenia, because a stronger Armenia is less dependent on Russia.”…. if true, than they should make Armenia finacially strong and militiraly safe so they can distance themselves from Russia. TALK IS CHEAP
He addressed that in the above article:
N.B.—But the West is not really willing to invest in Armenia…
A.P.—Yes. But for that you have to create the right conditions. There are people who are illegally deprived of their businesses, who face legal obstacles, like higher Customs duties and taxes. Money likes going places where conditions allow it to multiply. If we create the conditions, money will come. Otherwise, nobody will invest—not even Armenians.
WOW! I was so happy to read all of Ara Papian’s great wisdom about Armenia’s past, present and bright future (if we want it)! I am serious when I say ARA PAPIAN FOR PRESIDENT OF ARMENIA!
Good dream mr papian.the Kurds seem to play their game in a country called turkey if not removing the people from some 8 provinces and forcing them to unite with the Kurds in Iraq might be a permanent solution so I am afraid you will be empty handed again
Up above I have totally diverted from the topic in discussion.For this ,in my opinion( I mean this part of the AW,is just that) to express views etc.For I usually get to the point.No need to go into very expanded details (and repeat issues we all know from history etc.)
We ,Armenians ,i.e. not odars here on line ,first of all ought to re*-organize(especially in Diaspora) to have a Supreme Structure and A Supreme council.for this way ea on his /her own and juxtaposing very mixed and different viewpoints ,not in harmony and Convergence,we cannot obtain any objective whatsoever.
One plans to go FWD and prepare Dossier for (lawsuit)all by himself, another is talking of Elections a la worldwide, i.e. 20,000 Armenians worldwide to have right to one vote..etc.,
One vote for what to elect yet another person who may be without any merits??? or one who is filthy rich and by using his funds is elected (the norm actually in practice worldwide) or a electing a candidate from this that political party and voila !!!
Armenians have yet another Body,so to say.Or if you wish name if Pan Armenian world Congress…etc.,
This is ridiculours!!! we must FORM RANK AND FILE BEFORE ANYTHING AND PROCEED THROUGH P R O F E S S I O N A L S…and these latter lected for their m e r i t s ,not as above described.My modest viewpoint is to have all over the world Professional Colleagues Association, such as those 5 we already have(only in L.A.,Paris) then through these work out to have truly merited delegates elected to each Armenian community Central Council.then Converge all these Councils by having a Supreme Council, with 5 Departments.
1.Legal-political in Strasbourg8next to RA delegate)not sitting with him her but in town.
2-Executive in NY , as above,
3. Economic in Geneva(future national Investment Trust Foundation) with 15 offices ea representing one profession.
4.The Social Services adn(future Repatriation organizing) in Moscow,near abroad.
5.The only one we have thank God,the spiritual in st. Etchmiadzin ,but in conjunction with Great House of Cilicia8as long as we have Hay Tahd with great Turkey.
This my friends is a clos description how we come to be a SOLID Entity outside the RA-Artsakh.(what the western Armenian counci,,,(previously they began calling themselves Parliament,to which i immediately protested.We do have Parliament in Yerevan,we are no Kurds to have one exiled Parliament in Brussels. Latter the Western Armenian Cohjncil recently without the accord of 6/7 millions Armenians in Diaspora, has single handedly began Dialogue with great Turkey and is failing…and how…
you see we need to be ORGANIZED…also above(no names given9 one is to prepare package for legal action against great Turkey.Mon dieux!! my god.don´t we ahve a 500 strong BAR ASsociation in L.a. and other int`l attorneys all over.WHY NBOT HAVE THESE COME TOGETHER AND PREPARE A C L A S S A C T I O N LAWSUIT,Well prepared and through a Group ,rather than individual lawyers.
Why does the Armenian mind aim at individualism no harmoniojus TEAM-WORK…..go find that out!!!!
Sooner or Later Kurds and Turks would create a federation in which Iraqi Kurdistan joins Turkey..Everyone knows it..Last year kurdish leader Ocalan announced that they are ready to disarm and will ask what the state intends to do, The road map include a proposal about that Turkey establish a strategic alliance with the Kurds, not only in Mosul and Kirkuk but also in Syria, meaning the Kurds remaining within the borders of Misak-i Milli…Misaki milli doesn’t seem strange anymore..
Very interesting Article. I do believe the main point of the article. Armenia must develope good strong relationships with the US, China and Europe. We must be very careful as not to put all our eggs in the Russian basket.
You’re late. We already did. The article looks like shutting the stable door when the horse is stolen. In order to develop “good strong” relationships with the US, China and Europe, Armenia must have established herself as an effectively-functioning, better-governed state. For a host reasons–both external and internal–she couldn’t. Russia wouldn’t tolerate Armenia’s playing on two fronts with the EU while being a CU member-state. This is clear from what happenned to Ukraine. We must HAVE been careful as not to put all our eggs in the Russian basket, but the train has gone already.
Mr. Papian is much better off when he handles the Armenian Cause but seems to be far less efficient when he deals with Armenia’s security issues.
“Russian presence in Armenia is not for Armenia, it’s for Russia. They are defending their southern border, not Armenia.”
This is only half true. Armenia, too, is defending her southern border by means of Russian presence. Can Armenia defend her borders without Russian presence? Good luck…
“We have to show the Russians that we are allies, but that we are equal. We are not just a mean for them to solve their problems with their neighbors.”
We tried for the past two decades, but we failed because the truth is that we are allies but we are NOT equal. Whether one likes it or not, the patron-client relationship among nation-states has been a sad norm in international relations since times immemorial. Does anyone seriously think that if Russia is replaced by the U.S., America will treat Armenia as equal? Ridiculous…
“The path to survival is to keep a balance between West and East.”
Armenia tried that already, as Mr. Papian certainly knows working under the “great complementarist” Vartan Oskanian. Oskanian’s complementarity utopia miserably failed, because Russia gradually acquired strength in the region, America never actually stepped in, and Armenia failed to mobilize inner strength to build the country from within in order to be able to keep the foreign policy balance from without.
“Russia will become weaker—if not within two years, than in five—and a weaker Russia means a stronger Turkey in the Caucasus, and in the Black Sea. This is time for Armenia to at least predict that and try to find the counterbalance of Turkish influence. I see that [effort] in the West; I see that in Iran. These signs of improved Iranian-Western relations give us some hope.”
While improved Iranian-Western relations are certainly beneficial for Armenia, this has never come to fruition and is more of a pipe dream as of now than the prediction that Russia would become weaker soon. In fact, we’re seeing quite the opposite.
What I’d wish to see in the interview is Mr. Papian’s assessment of the possibility of Armenia’s becoming part of a new globalist project called “Eurasian Union”. If Armenia joins, and there are all indications of it, than all these phrases about security, balance, equal partnership, etc. are just cheap talk.
Thank you Ara Papian for a very accurate and great analysis of the situation. I wish this is translated into Armenian and printed in Armenia’s e-press where there is almost no in-depth analysis of Armenia’s adhererence to the CU. But then again, it is better for any government to have ignorant masses.
take a reality check(whoever that is) is correct all the way ,even through the post ..except he does not dwell much UPON OUR OWN NATURAL AND NATIONAL RESOURCES.nO ,i DO NOT MEAN MINES ETC.,
But we have over a 100,000 strong Armenian professionals in 15 fields of professions.These are OUR H U M A N RESOURCES!!!not the Babik Mamik in the vilalges,. or some chain cigarette smoking person in down town Yerevan(imagining they are politicized)
If we can organize these nice people and also by and by think of our ECONOMIC POWER.Yes just that an NATIONAL INVESTMENT TRUST FUND, nucleus of which by our MAGNATES(the beehive ,if you wish) then we can come up to a billions of dolalrs worth NATIONAL INVESTMENT TRUST FOUNDATION9 IN…you guessesd it Geneva cH,not Moscow not NY etc.,A neutral place tax free and easy to move in and move out-
Also we need meanwhile to hav e our youth going to Armenia endowed with dual citizenship or at least a Special stay(Haduk getsutioune) passport.this will animate encourage them go over and besides language,culture and history undergo MILITARY CADET TRAINING!!!!
dO NBOT HAV E TIME TO WRITE FURTHER ,SORRY.AM TO ATTEND YET ANOTHER meeting in yerevan ,In one of the ¨´clubs¨,no not night clubs spotys bu literrary political etc.,
Best to all and
parev hasgcoghin
Papian must know full well that Armenia’s incorporation with Russia as a federative republic or a member-state of a Russia-dominated union (whether we like it or not) is a matter of nearest future, yet he brings up old as Adam, anachronistic and unfulfilled clichés, such as “equality”, “balance”, “interdependence on many powers” and other gibberish. Why is Papian doing this? To attempt, rhetorically, to save the face of the nation? Meaning, Armenia didn’t want but was forced into the union with Russia? Has it occurred to him that his interview might be taken as insult to intelligence by some intellectuals? Or this is something he could care less given the agenda he might have?
I always enjoy reading Ara Papian’s ideas, and in this interview he courageously shows us how real Armenian patriotism works, with its inherent definition: Armenian interests. Not Russian interests. Not American interests. Not NATO interests. Armenian interests. Yes I know, Armenia being the little fish is in no position to play with the sharks, but being the little fish, it is important to analyze the sharks by means of sober analysis to avert future disaster. And to me this is what Ara was arriving at.
I am perhaps not 100% in agreement with what Ara said about Russia since I like to be optimistic about Russian-Armenian relations, the future of Russia, etc, but I do believe he is right that Russia is in Armenia more for its own sake than for Armenia, despite that the Armenian president lately claimed that “Russia and Armenia have been friends for 250 years”, no doubt a claim based more on fiction than truth. In my view a more correct statement would be, “let us Armenians and Russians not let evil forces hinder our friendship as happened previously and look to the future for better understanding and cooperation based on our shared values”.
Now for the passage:
“Today, many have forgotten that our main war from 1989-91 was against the Russians, not against Azerbaijan. And our two defeats in Karabagh— in Shahumian and Mardakert—were both fighting the Russians, not Azeris. How did we lose Shahumian? We lost because Russian forces—the special airborne division—were fighting Armenians. This is why I always look at today’s events through the lens of history. Because when you do not learn from history, you repeat it.”
This is a brilliant observation and accurate. I have also heard from Artsakhtsis, Armenian forces which wanted to finish off Azerbaijan’s military threat by heading to Baku were stopped not by Azeris, but by the Russian army.
(As a side point, isn’t it quite funny when the average clueless Azeri-Turk claims that “Russia saved Armenia” and without Russia Azerbaijan will finish off Armenia? Well Azeri-Turks are experts at interpreting history in reverse, so it is no surprise.)
Was it in “Armenia’s interest” in having an insane, extremist, war-mongering, pan-Turanist neighbor? Nope. We know that it was in Turkey’s interest of course. Well then why was it in Russia’s interest as well?
To be fair, NATO threatened Russia that if the attack on Azerbaijan did not stop they would get involved. However, we must remember this point: Russia did not back Armenia in that scenario; when it comes to Russia’s security and interests, what NATO says is irrelevant [Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Crimea]. But when it was about Armenia’s security and interests – well, that was negotiable, not to mention that the cited Russian arms supplies to Azerbaijan for lucrative profits today probably also factor into the picture. Still, I am willing to give Russia the benefit of the doubt since after the collapse of the Soviet Union it was not in great shape, not to mention that NATO set Russia up, which is evident today.
But I cannot help but be irritated by how Armenia gets treated, after all, why would both NATO and Russia want Armenia to be in control over her real lands and have power over energy routes? God forbid, Armenia might start making her own decisions and PROSPER, a concept that, it seems, terrifies both Russia and the west.
For both Russia and the west, Azerbaijan is a cash cow, this much we know. But if they wanted to, they could also have all agreed not to arm an insane, extremist, constantly barking-for-war country, and just use her as a gas station. But who cares about Armenians and Armenia, anyway?
It is true that without Russia, Armenia would be swallowed whole. But let us not get drunk on this concept either. Both Russia and the west created the conditions where Armenia’s existence would be totally dependent on one of them – in our case Russia. This is like the doctor who breaks your arm then treats you for a broken arm. If anyone is impressed, then be my guest, I for one am not. In the historical perspective, every country involved is guilty of desecrating Armenia, and that includes the US, Russia, and European countries, especially France, Germany and the UK, none are exempt.
And I used to think Mr Papian was a serious thinker! Such broad generalisations… such misrepresentations… . Such distorted and utopian conclusions… . What a great disappointment! “take a reality check // May 19, 2014 at 4:35 pm” has pointed out SOME of the faults in Mr Papian’s approach. I wonder why Mr Papian has learnt nothing from the 2008 Sahakashvili experience? And to suggest that Russia is getting weaker in the region – or indeed that if it were that in any way would help Armenia! What is this: “They did that in the 1920’s. They tried to solve their problems with Turkey…”? What problems with Turkey?! The Entente Cordial was trying to destroy Bolshevik Russia and we were fooled to support them wholeheartedly for their empty promises instead of playing both sides – like you’re so inconsistently advocating in your interview and as Ataturk actually practiced. Hence he/Turkey-Turkbaijan gained AT OUR FOOLISH EXPENSE! Please let’s not make the same mistake again now!
This is a great interview. Some may call it utopian but Mr. Papian at least has a vision for a long term resolution for the consequences of the Genocide. This is in stark contrast to the mainstream position where there is a great deal of focus on what we want from Turkey (apology, return of lands, compensation, etc.) but nobody seems to envision how in practical terms we would get these things. If you think about it, the vision Mr. Papian has proposed is quite practical and plausible. Most importantly, it fits into the realpolitic paradigm of international relations.
As far as the complementarism is concerned, I think it worked quite well for a while. What people fail to understand is in order for a policy, any policy to work Armenia must be strong enough to be able to conduct such policy. The reason complementarism stopped working for us is not because it was not good. It ended because Armenia failed to grow economically and militarily primarily because of lack of good leadership. Over the last 5-10 years Armenia gradually lost whatever regional significance it had prior to that which was achieved due to winning a small for the world but still a significant war. At the and Armenia became so week that between the West and Russia whoever could grab her easier did grab. And it happened to be Russia.
The corrupt and undemocratic regime that’s governing Armenia has lead the country to a very dangerous state where we may easily lose our statehood. The current state of the affairs with Armenia and the rest of the world do not allow Armenia to be considered a respectable albeit small international partner. Therefore, even the most brilliant strategy for foreign policy is nothing more than words. This government is incapable of leading us out of the hole that it has lead is unto. Only a regime change can break the downwards trend we are in. With a lawful and democratic leadership, we could grow economically and militarily. In that case we could have more say of who we would like to join – EU or CU. And in that case even joining CU and the Eurasian Union could possibly be beneficial. Until that happens we are looking to lose.