The question that Armenian authorities must ask is not if authorities in Yerevan underestimated or miscalculated the geopolitical shifts in the region or not, but how they underestimated, miscalculated and ignored the shifting balance of power in the Middle East and beyond.
Geopolitics is the study of how political power is reinforced or undermined by geographical arrangements (boundaries, alliances, natural resources etc.). In 2011, with the explosion of widespread transnational protest movements in the Middle East, the region was hit by anarchy. The Middle East experienced revolutions and counter-revolutions, state collapse, political vacuums, civil wars, financial crises, insurgencies, the emergence of Islamic terrorism and institutional collapse. All these factors directly or indirectly were motivated by geopolitical and energy security shifts. These changes have reinforced de-facto new state boundaries; Syria, Yemen and Libya turned into zones of spheres of influence divided by regional powers. Three main state actors were directly involved in this process: Turkey, Iran and Russia.
Turkey’s military adventures in Northern Syria, which operated under the code name “Operation Euphrates Shield,” enjoyed a successful run from the summer of 2016 until October 2019. It was during the Idlib war of 2019 where Turkish Bayraktar unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) were used against Russian-made defense systems and were quite effective. One could have hinted that Turkey was employing hard power in its foreign policy to gain certain points in its geopolitical calculations. Ankara’s main concern was no more the presence of the Syrian President Bashar al Assad, but the removal of Kurdish military presence in Northern Syria. Turkey considers the Syrian Kurdish militia YPG (People’s Protection Units) as an offspring of PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party); thus its presence near the border threatens Turkey’s territorial integrity. For this reason, Turkey balanced itself between Washington and Moscow, meanwhile working to push its anti-Kurdish agenda forward. Successfully, Erdogan destroyed the land bridge between the three Syrian Kurdish cantons, and thus by occupying Afrin, his administration, with the help of local proxies, employed the Turkification project. Turkey not only consolidated its presence there, but also made impossible the reunification of these territories back to Syria.
Not far from Syria, Ankara started to flex its muscles in the Eastern Mediterranean and scored military victories in Libya against General Haftar who was supported by Russia, Egypt and the UAE. Turkey became a crucial actor in the Eastern Mediterranean by containing the French-Greek-Egyptian axis on one hand and making unilateral decisions to explore gas fields in Northern Cyprus on the other. Meanwhile, Ankara has reduced its reliance on Russian gas imports by April 2020; for the first time, Azerbaijan has surpassed Russia in gas supplies to Turkey. Thus, the South Caucasus’ energy security became part of Ankara’s geopolitical calculations to bargain with Russia in the future. Haven’t the recent military exercises between Turkey and Azerbaijan sent warning signals to the authorities in Yerevan? After all, it was only a matter of time before Ankara was going to extend its influence to the South Caucasus and challenge Russia in its backyard.
Even though many Iranian clerics, including the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have made announcements that “Karabakh is a land of Islam” and congratulated Azerbaijan on “liberating its territories from the occupation,” it would be wrong to expect that Iran is shifting its policy of neutrality to more explicit support for Azerbaijan in the region. According to political analyst Eldar Mamedov, “Iran’s foreign policy formulation is a complex process involving stakeholders from various diplomatic and security establishments.” Mamedov argues that Khamenei may act as a decision-maker but not the ultimate executor. What many Armenians neglected were the announcements and comments of Iranian military leaders and the mobilization of the Iranian army with the border of Artsakh and Azerbaijan. Many high-ranking Iranian military officials warned of the presence of Islamist fighters and the role that Israel had played in this war. Tehran knows very well that Baku is now forever indebted to Israel. However, Iran is not ready to confront Azerbaijan and Turkey. The latter is an important transit corridor to provide its gas and oil to European markets and cooperate against the Kurdish insurgency in the region.
Two reasons push Tehran not to antagonize Ankara at this moment. The first is that Turkey would fuel a sense of Azerbaijani nationalism inside of Iran, where some 20 million people of ethnic Azeri background live in the northwest of Iran. Many American and Israeli think tanks suggested using the “South Azerbaijan” card to disintegrate Iran from within. In other words, the Iranian authorities feared the potential for spillover, where Tehran would unwillingly be dragged into the Armenian-Azerbaijani war. The second factor that concerned Iran was the likelihood that Turkey’s proactive policy of supporting Azerbaijan would lead to providing Ankara a bigger stake in the future of the South Caucasus. Tehran is aware that the presence of Syrian mercenaries at its northern border has additional missions, as many of them are possibly staying for resettlement purposes in the Azerbaijani captured territories north of Iran. These factors were not taken into consideration by authorities in Yerevan; there was speculation that Tehran would directly intervene in the conflict. For the aforementioned reasons, Iran cannot confront Turkey; however, with the mercenaries and Israeli agencies on its north border, Tehran may feel the pressure to act in the future.
As for Russia, Armenians naively assumed that Putin would lead a direct intervention in Artsakh and take their side. Why would Russia risk a war with Turkey and Azerbaijan and risk its soldiers and resources? Russia has regional and geopolitical interests and cannot risk a major war against Turkey in the South Caucasus. Moscow is in a “clash and cooperation” situation with Turkey, both in Syria and Libya. According to Andrey Sushentsov, Russia’s concerns in the region are also guided by the threat of possible NATO expansion to the South Caucasus. With Georgia falling under Western influence and Azerbaijan under Turkish, Moscow could not have risked its only ally in the region falling under foreign influence. Armenia miscalculated the strength of Russia’s skepticism towards Yerevan following the Velvet Revolution.
Russia’s position is tied to many interests among regional actors that forced it to adopt a balanced approach during the Artsakh War. For example, from a Russian perspective, Russia’s arms sales to Azerbaijan aimed to neutralize the Israeli and Western military cooperation and prevent the defrosting of the conflict by NATO, but Moscow ultimately failed here. To keep the Western influence out and solve the conflict, Russia realized it had to cooperate with Turkey, as Ankara’s influence was increasing on Baku. For this reason, Russia was searching for a compromised deal, and as soon as it realized Armenia was losing the battle, it had to intervene—a costly outcome for the Armenian side. Moreover, Yerevan’s maximalist and irrational announcements that “Artsakh is Armenia” along with the celebrations on the centennial anniversary of the Treaty of Sevres antagonized both Ankara and Baku and pushed them to plan to bring Armenia to its knees. These mistakes pushed Russia to intervene and save the remaining part of Artsakh from Azerbaijani yoke.
To conclude, in the last few years there have been clear geopolitical shifts in the region and the balance of power has shifted towards Turkey. Borders were shifted and redrawn by Turkey both in Libya and Syria, and the international community was silent while Russia was trying to cooperate and sometimes clash with Turkey in Northern Syria. It was only a matter of time; Ankara was going to extend its hands towards the South Caucasus. Today, thanks to the miscalculations from Yerevan, Russia’s nightmare has become a reality, and Turkish military presence in Azerbaijan has become a fact. Armenia can only contain it by moving closer to Russia and Iran with the hope that the outcome of any future confrontation between Ankara and Moscow would be to Yerevan’s benefit.
Yeghia Tashjian
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Russia gained more in this war than any country. Armenia has lost more than any country. What does it tell us about Russia being an ally? And who cares about the Velvet Revolution if no treaty between Russia and Armenia, or Russian-brokered organizations is broken? How can a country act on sentiments when nothing has changed on the paper and de facto in Armenian-Russian relationships?
Artsakh was never part of the deal. They warned us about the fact that they could not defend it because it was internationally recognized as Azerbaijan. We had a chance to be flexible but had elements within our society that refused. Besides, how did Russia gain anything really? It now has Turkey in its backyard. Thanks to the western policy of toppling “dictators” in Libya, Iraq, and Syria(attempted), the terrorists were available in large supply. If the EU and NATO were not so hellbent on lighting West Asia and North Africa on fire, Russia would have been less tempted to compromise with Turkey. It has to be flexible because of Western backed wars started by NATO and the EU.
Exactly, no treaty was broken by the Russians either. You get pretty much what you voted for and actions have consequences. Who cares about the “Velvet Revolution” (the self-important name of a regime change in some backwater corner of the world is truly revolting) you ask? Well, maybe the people that the leaders and cronies of the so called Velvet Revolution started offending at every step while being, as we have seen, largely dependent on the same folks. Major Oof moment here. Next time maybe don’t vote for a Western sponsored journo with a destructive agenda, thanks.
Sorry, this article makes no sense, and has confused itself by assuming wrong facts then making excuses in an attempt to rationalize Russia’s despicable behavior. And in what reality does the author expect to gain any credibility making a claim like “Yerevan’s maximalist and irrational announcements that “Artsakh is Armenia”…”? How is Armenia LIBERATING a SMALL PART of its homeland, “irrational” and “maximalist”? I don’t know who you think you’re working for, but such a senseless claim is from a non-Armenian perspective.
“Why would Russia risk a war with Turkey and Azerbaijan and risk its soldiers and resources?”
Are you even serious?
You mean besides the fact that Russia convinced Armenia to join the “poverty club” EAEU instead of the EU, and sitting in a base in Gyumri for free on Armenia’s expense to protects ITS OWN INTERESTS RATHER THAN ARMENIA’S?
Russia wouldn’t risk a war with Turkey you say? So you are saying the Russian bases in Armenia are not needed since Turkey can do whatever it wants, and spineless coward Russia would let them, right?
Here is a dose of reality. The reason why Armenia “lost” this war is because Putin is a Turk-Loving Spineless Coward, not any other reason. NATO set a red line for Russia: you cannot attack Turkey, or it is war. Coward, back-stabbing Putin could have easily done the same for the Caucasus, but didn’t because that would BENEFIT Armenia.
You actually believe that Turkey got involved in the South Caucasus to invade Artsakh without Russia’s knowledge and approval?? Ha!
The Armenian army never lifted a finger. volunteers were turned away from day one. Lies were told throughout the war. Karvajar was handed over without firing a single bullet, and Armenia’s own sovereignty was conflated with the Artsakh war to openly connect Nakhichevan with Azerbaijan, how much more evidence do you need to understand Armenia got swindled by a joint Russian-Turkish effort so that Armenia can never profit from making any kind of economic demands?
Russia was never a friend nor ally of Armenia, that has now been demonstrated clearly. And there is nothing wrong with Russia as an ally, so long as it is real, instead of a lie that we have been fed all this time. And of course, the main blame is for the clueless politicians that Armenia keeps pumping out one after the other, all who represent foreign interests and never Armenian ones, whether those interests are for the west or Russia, all are traitors. And every one of them needs to be eradicated, and only then will Armenia be ready to deal with Russia in a manner that will benefit both nations. Armenia needs to get out of it population beggar and leadership thief mentality, that’s all there is to say.
Greece joined the EU, but it has no tangible benefits from it. We tried appealing to the west, but they ignored us throughout the war.
Well, Greece ran into trouble with the EU, but they wouldn’t stick to it unless they did see certain benefits from it. Whether we care to admit it or not, mediterranean peoples don’t like hard work like northern and western Europeans and Americans do, and we Armenians fall into the former category also. Greece is also in NATO, and Turkey and Greece are clearly not allies in reality, just on paper. Turkey itching and intending to overtake all the Greek isles makes for an interesting scenario as to how NATO members will react if Turkey and Greece do enter a war situation one day.
My guess is NATO would side with Greece, because NATO’s support for Turkey is primarily based on being a counter force against Russia, and the Arab countries. That is why to me Russia is an undesirable force for us Armenians, because Russia in turn does not support Armenia as a counterweight to NATO’s attack dog, Turkey. NATO supports Turkey to oppose Russia, but Russia does not do the same with Armenia, and that’s why Armenia has the short-end of the stick, and is a phony “alliance” and is reduced to a beggar of the second-rate military force of Russia. Artsakh not being part of official Armenia is no excuse for Russia either, an ally’s security counts no matter what the circumstances, and without Artsakh, Armenia’s security is seriously compromised.
Oh God, not this troll again. Honestly, I don’t want to overdramatize but whenever I see this guy, I think to myself that maybe you got what you deserved. Yes, “you”, no longer “we”.
@Zartir Lao Your comment is the one that makes no sense. Speaking as a neutral outsider, this article is one of the few in Armenian media that I’ve seen that is actually pretty balanced, even briefly acknowledging that it was Pashinyan (and his defense minister) antagonizing Azerbaijan and Turkey for 2 years including threatening to annex their territories that made them act. It’s also why Russia sat back as well because Pashinyan & Co. was a destabilizing actor threatening the security of literally every party involved including itself.
And are you serious about choosing to not join the EU? There are countries in the Balkans that haven’t been admitted to the EU yet. Do you seriously think Armenia was going to be let in? Armenia is geographically disconnected from the EU.
People need to understand all this guy does is cope HARD. No logic or reason or knowledge required, just hard cope.
You are so clearly uneducated and do not understand history. Russia has never been on Turkey’s side, diplomacy is not related to their true intents. Russia has always been Armenia’s ally. The EU handed 500mil to Azerbaijan to build their pipeline shortly before the war, and the West in general has conducted the “Brzezinski scheme” which is to infiltrate former soviet satellite countries by bribing officials and producing “color revolutions” under the facade of “democracy and liberty”.
Russia has always been Armenia’s friend.
Armenia was resurrected by the Russian Empire in the 19th century. Armenia was made into a modern republic by Stalin’s Soviet Union in the 20th century. In the 21st century, the Russian Federation is the ONLY political entity on earth stopping Turks/Azeris from erasing Armenia from the world map. Armenia is by-product of the Bear’s geostrategic wishes and desires. A wise nation would take all this into serious consideration. Armenia’s natural place is fully within Russia’s political, military, economic and cultural orbit. Armenia therefore needs to end its counterproductive “complimentary politics” nonsense. This is not the 1990s.
Although there are some naturally occurring flaws in the relationship, Russia has actually been a very reliable partner for us.
Russia is Armenia’s largest trade partner and investor. Armenians products are well known throughout the Russian Federation. Russians makeup the largest percentage of tourists in Armenia. The Russian-Armenian Diaspora is by-far the most affluent in the world. Large numbers of Armenians can be found in the highest levels of Russian society. Russia provides Armenia with low cost nuclear fuel, natural gas and oil. Russia provides Armenia will low cost modern weaponry and military raining. Russia protects Armenia’s western border with Turkey, giving Armenia the opportunity to concentrate its efforts on a more manageable Azerbaijan. That we were not able to properly deploy our military and protect Artsakh is nobody’s fault but ours. More specifically, the historic tragedy we have on our hands today is the fault of our NED (i.e. CIA) and Soros financed government in Yerevan. Nevertheless, Armenia can survive breaking away from the Armenian Diaspora, it will not survive breaking away from Russia.
Our society needs to train itself to ignore all the anti-Russian rhetoric put out by our professional Russophobes via Western financed activists and organizations. There is a not so little army of professional Russophobes embedded throughout Armenian society, and they are tasked with driving a wedge between Russia and Armenia. There is also a large army of anti-Russian cyber activists working inside Armenian social media. US and British establishments are leading these efforts. Israeli and Turkish military intelligence is also doing the same, albeit covertly. Because Armenians are a politically illiterate and emotionally handicapped people by nature, our professional Russophobes have been quite successful in misinforming and misleading Armenians. Consequently, for the past 2.5 years, not only was official Yerevan actively flirting with Russia’s enemies, it was also persecuting officials and companies in Armenia that have ties with Russia.
As a result, although Armenia’s is desperately dependent on Russia for survival in a Turkic/Islamic region like the south Caucasus, large segments of Armenian society still look to the West for salvation. As a result, a growing number of Armenians also prefer friendship with Turks/Azeris over Russians. It’s self-destructive behavior.
We vividly saw this self-destructive behavior during this disastrous war. We know now that Nikol’s regime had been in touch with Turkish and Azeris intelligence shortly before the war. After Turks/Azeris began their attack, official Yerevan was eagerly looking for salvation from the West, not Moscow. For 30 years our people has been brainwashed to see Russians – who actually make our existence in a very dangerous region of the world possible – as our enemies. Similarly, for 30 years we have been brainwashed to see Westerners – who at best could careless about us – as our friends. Needless to say, Western financed NGOs and the North American-Armenian Diaspora have played a very toxic role in Armenia. Due to our people’s pride, arrogance, naivete, political illiteracy, materialism, tribalism, shortsightedness and love of all things Western – especially the toxic concepts of “democracy” and “globalization” – we have utterly ruined Armenia economically, financially, politically and culturally. And now, we have also lost a very significant portion of our historic lands.
Our landlocked Armenia is too small, too poor, too weak, too landlocked and too remote. The south Caucasus is too backward, too Islamic, too Turkic and therefore too dangerous. At this point, the safest thing we can do as a people is to seek a closer union with the Russian Federation. That is our only chance for survival. As long as we keep our language, our church and our military, I don’t care what the said union looks like. Real Armenian patriots (i.e. those who actually think about the country’s long term health and well being) need to start thinking along these lines. The past 30 years have been very traumatic. I’m afraid we Armenians are not ready for full independence. Going forward, the safest bet for us is to find common language with our Russian partners and stick as close to the Bear as possible. Otherwise, we will risk losing Armenia once again.
I am saying all this as an erstwhile “nationalist” who used to think Russia/Russians were an enemy of Armenia. Simply put: I was wrong, Ivan was right…
The only comment you should read, understand and agree with on this website.
AGREED! LOVE RUSSIA <3 Everyone saying otherwise is either uneducated, brainwashed, or trying to brainwash everyone else. Geopolitically, West is against us. I'm convinced Nikol is a bribed traitor, similar to the other "coLoR revOlutIon!1" leaders who end up ruining ties with Russia to appease the West and ultimately aid in the downfall of Russia.
Pro-Russia all the way ~
“These mistakes pushed Russia to intervene and save the remaining part of Artsakh from Azerbaijani yoke.”, Really? With no Armenians in Artsakh Russian troops have no business coming to Azerbaijan. So Russia is using Armenian blood to occupy Artsakh territory. It is simple as that, the realization of the Lavrov plan which still honors the illegal Lenin-Kemal brotherhood pact gifting legal Armenian territories to Azerbaijan/Turkey.
Part of the healing process is conditioned upon our ability to accept defeat and look forward. This war was preconditioned. We lost not only human lives and land, but also prestige, confidence and the political class dignity. Time and again we make the same mistakes, which brings about dreadful conclusions. Pashinian’s overreliance on the West and his European dream poured cold shower on the people. The other end of the pendulum is the reliance on Russia. Not once in the human history an Empire was considered a faithful partner or ally. Empires have multi vector interests and cannot commit to one partner. In such relationships the victims are usually the small countries like Armenia. Our stupidity was that Armenia invested heavily in Artsakh before solving the very basic issue. To whom belongs Artsakh? Now all that goes to oil-rich Azerbaijan free of charge. I hope the defeat will make us more conscious, more rational and above all self-reliant.
We cannot rely on others…when are we going to learn that?
Only strength is respected, and we need a “force multiplier” line NW’s to equalize things like Israel has done…Get the diaspora to raise the money for it…Armenia always had the scientific and technical talent, like its contribution to the development of USSR’s n-weapons
And please don’t play with words…Artsakh was part of historic Armenia and Stalin’s gifting should be declared null-and-void…if we had the power, we could just annex it like Israel and “Judea and Samaria”. For that we need “teeth” like NW’s…
Finally, I think it was a mistake not to destroy the BTC pipeline and the Azeri oil fields and refineries…what was Pashinian’s government afraid of? Putin? Erdogan? That was a lost opportunity to finally get the attention from the “big Boys”: EU and US
It is important that people remember to stop claiming that Stalin “gifted” Artsakh to the Azerbaijani SSR. It was the British who did that. When the Caucasian Bureau voted 4-3 in favour of rewarding it to Armenia in 1921, there exists some evidence that Stalin may have convinced some members to change their vote to keep it within Azerbaijan. It was a cynical move on his part, but he wasn’t the only person who was appeasing Turkey at the time, even the French and Americans had interests in using Turkey as a proxy.
As far as the “big boys”(EU and USA), they received plenty of attention from our diaspora, but did nothing. The EU Armenians held protests regularly and held meetings with important officials, but nothing came of it. As far as the USA goes, well, their narcissistic president is still whining about the election a month after his landslide defeat. The USA is a country so occupied and insulated with its own issues yet seems to also stick its nose everywhere.
I find it hard to believe that what we regard ourselves as an intelligent nation did not have intelligence information of what was going on as Azerbaijan an Turkey were preparing for war.
You did not have to have intelligence to know what was coming. Aliyev was yelling day and night for years that it is coming. Armenians were too busy accumulating individual wealth to not care about the collective good, it is that simple. A country that consistently asks for God’s help, then God gifts them 20% of the neighboring country and they manage to give it away? Unheard of in history!!! We definitely have to be first in everything.
Because we’re not. Individual Armenians are intelligent, and the number is above average, but that is about it. Armenian statehood has been historically trash tier, terrible timing, terrible representatives, terrible diplomacy, just terrible.
Of course the lack of preparation in this case was a highlight of… lack of intelligence.
With massive forces like the West, and Turkey, and enough money/bribery and using social media to sneakily manipulate everyone and twist history, this was going to happen just like it did in Georgia and Ukraine.
A well thought out piece that underlines the need for rational analysis over primitive hatreds and self-defeating triumphalist or victimization narratives.
Lets be clear: Right before this war started there was a massive military drill with 150k Russian/Armenian troops using UAV technology at its core. Everyone knew this was coming. I remember it well. This was right after the Turkish /Azeri drills. However quickly Russia left Armenia high and dry. And Armenia left Artsakh high and dry. The Armenian military wasn’t used at all to its full capability. In fact volunteers were encouraged to fight early on. A bad sign. As if that was the very plan. Just unbelievable. 2 weeks before Shushi fell I knew something wasn’t right when the President of Artsakh was pleading for help while Pashinyan and Armenpress, the war propaganda news machine, was claiming decisive victories. They never told anyone the reality of losing massive territories early and often. I remember even during the middle of the war Pashinyan had to clarify Russian intentions in case the war spilled onto Armenia proper, as it did many times without any Russian intervention what so ever. There are about 2700 Armenian soldier causalities and im sure many more wounded. Armenia proper supposedly has 40k plus troops and special ops. Where were they? No counter offensive ever. No drones until late. No iskanders. No advanced war planes. This war stinks something rotten. Even the Governor of Syunik recently was stating that only volunteers were the only ones monitoring the front lines. As if its re-planned that Armenia is to lose that piece as well purposely so Nakichivan can attach itself to Azerbaijan. It almost seems like its an inside job. After losing the war Pashinyan’s 15 point plan puts military reform, the very reason Armenian is in this horrible predicament at #8 on his to do list. Hes either totally incompetent or really a traitor. I’m not quite sure which one yet. I don’t trust him all. neither should anyone else.
It wasn’t Russia that “left us high and dry” and their official military could not enter the Artsakh region, but Nikol’s a traitor and part of the “Brzezinski plan” to ruin Russian influence by targeting former soviet countries and either destroying them or using them as proxies or both.
Concerened Armenian says:
“December 9, 2020 at 6:03 pm
Armenia was resurrected by the Russian Empire in the 19th century. Armenia was made into a modern republic by Stalin’s Soviet Union in the 20th century. In the 21st century, the Russian Federation is the ONLY political entity on earth stopping Turks/Azeris from erasing Armenia from the world map.”
Chief Apparatchik Lenin says:
“A lie told often enough becomes the truth.”
And there we have it. Imagine being so tone-deaf that even after one of the greatest betrayals of Armenia by Russia, our resident Apparatchik… keeps on Apparatchiking.
I keep asking for any proof from these Apparatchiks how “Russia resurrected Armenia” – and all I get is the same old lie told over and over (instructions from Lenin) in an effort to “make it the truth”.
Dear Apparatchiks, in our diaspora history books, we have clearly all learned that the majority party we adhere to, the ARF, is the one that took initiative to form Armenia once again after centuries of absence, just like the pan-Turkists also took steps in creating for the first time an “Azerbaijan” out of no historical context, as a result of IMPERIAL RUSSIA collapsing!
Those Soviet instructions about telling a lie often enough to make it a reality might work against those who have no knowledge about something. But in what reality do you expect that we are going to believe a lie when it is being told over and over again, if we already know it is a lie very clearly and we have been actually studying that for a century?
Note: we also know very well that the Armenia that was re-created by the ARF was in fact very much pro-Russia. Not pro Soviet Russia. Pro Imperial Russia. And today’s Russia is still trying to be a ‘Soviet Russia’ masquerading as a phony Christian make-believe Imperial Russia. How do we know? Imperial Russia would have taught Turkey and Azerbaijan a lesson they would never forget for their war crimes, not take sides with them during the war in Artsakh in 2020. That’s how we know.