Armenia’s Munich?
The peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan brokered by President Trump has made some Armenians—mainly in the diaspora—happy while others lament the fact that important provisions in Armenia’s interest were not included. History shows us that when two equally strong nations have disputes and negotiate a treaty, the result is often a compromise and accommodation both are happy with.
On the other hand, when one nation is politically and militarily weak while the other is strong in both respects, the stronger nation will dominate and insist on more accommodations for a so-called peace treaty. British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain once held a document showing peace with Adolf Hitler and Hitler’s promise of no more aggression towards his neighboring countries. We all know how that went.
It is obvious that what is missing from the treaty is the return of 150,000 Armenians to their homes in Artsakh, an actual demarcation of the border between the two countries and the release of Artsakh Armenian prisoners of war. The upcoming parliamentary elections in Armenia next year might have an influence on the treaty’s implementation. It was interesting to see the fawning behavior toward Trump by both President Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
For better or worse, we now have a treaty. Let us see how it will work out.
