Armenia has voted. The people have spoken. Well, about half of Armenia has. Turnout was disappointing—slightly over 50-percent. With so much on the line, one would assume that perhaps a strong majority would participate. Regardless, the snap election is over. What’s next? Once the formal certification of the election by the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) is completed (within seven days), Nikol Pashinyan and his Civil Contract Party will be asked to form a government. The results indicate that his party will hold 71 seats (called mandates) and the party placing second, Robert Kocharyan’s Armenia Alliance, will hold 29 seats. The I Have Honor alliance will hold seven seats even though they did not make the seven percent threshold required for alliances. Their performance is superseded by Armenian law that requires at least three parties/alliances to be seated in the National Assembly. While that process is unfolding, the Armenia Alliance will formally challenge the results of the election in the Constitutional Court. This has become almost tradition in Armenian politics for the loser of the election to challenge its legitimacy. Personally, I will take a court challenge, which is their legal right, over street protests (which is also their right but often leads to violence). Despite the wide margin of victory (53 percent to 21 percent), the contentious nature of the election almost guaranteed a protest by one party. In the meantime, congratulatory messages from other nations are starting to flow as the election takes on reality. European observers issued a preliminary statement that the election was “competitive and generally very well-managed during a short time frame.” The 330 European observers were under the auspices of the OSCE (yes, the same group that has tolerated Azeri non-compliance to the peace effort for 30 years). The vast majority of their work consists of visiting polling sites to observe the integrity of the voting process. Fraud, of course, usually takes place prior to the election with bribes and pressure on the electorate by certain interest groups. Nevertheless, it is very difficult to rationalize the sizable gap in the results to illegal activity.
Armenian citizens were faced with a very difficult choice during this election. Despite the large number of party participants, the choice was essentially between giving Pashinyan and his questionable performance a second chance versus returning to the past with Kocharyan. I’d like to share my observations on the polls which showed a close race in the mid twenties for both Pashinyan and Kocharyan. The prediction for Kocharyan was actually fairly accurate given the results. It is obvious that the prediction for Pashinyan was grossly understated either because the respondents were uncomfortable stating their true preference or the polling was flawed in its design. The significance of the gap suggests that, at a minimum, many supporters of Pashinyan did not wish to disclose their preference publicly. Clearly, Armenian voters believed that giving Pashinyan a chance at redemption was the best option. The Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF), a partner in the Armenia Alliance, stands to receive at least one-third of the 29 mandates. This would be their strongest parliamentary presence, albeit in opposition, since 2007. Although their goal was to participate in the sitting government, it will be the first time they have sat in the National Assembly since 2018. If the minimum objective of the ARF in joining the Armenia Alliance was to regain a presence in the National Assembly, then they can spin it as a success.
Assuming this all takes a few weeks to sort out, what is or should be the direction of the country? Obviously, since Armenia’s defeat in the Artsakh War, Pashinyan has altered his pro-Western tilt to a very mindful tone of compliance with Russia. The most important question for Armenians to ask themselves is: “How do we define our sovereignty?”
Since 1991, Russian troops have guarded the border with Turkey as part of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Now they control the Artsakh/Azeri border, and they recently announced they will participate in the Gegharkunik region of Lake Sevan. Economically, most of the main industries and infrastructure were sold off to Russian interests many years ago. Now we suffer the indignity of Azeris further violating our borders in several locations. POWs are incarcerated illegally, tortured while international authorities are ignored. Is this how we define sovereignty? If so, then our definition is synonymous with a vassal state. We have a veneer of international relations but very little independent thinking, particularly since the 44-day war. This is the current Pashinyan legacy—a wounded nation led down the path of defeat. His populist victory in the Velvet Revolution has been overshadowed; he’s now the man who presided over the incredible loss of parts of Artsakh that included the unimaginable and painful expense of young Armenian soldiers. If his tenure the next few years is anything like the nearly eight months since the end of the war, we are in for an even more difficult period.
The most pressing needs of the country in the short term are border control, the refugee crisis and economic recovery. There is no room for the old Pashinyan approach which led to this calamity. I am urging for what we will call “patriotic unity.” It is time for all factions to subordinate their self-interests of power and control to work only in the interests of Armenia’s survival. While it might sound idealistic and naïve, it’s not.
Let’s start with inter-party relationships in Armenian political life. If each faction labels the other criminals and traitors, then there is not much of a foundation for working together. Public name calling only serves to incite a base and create an atmosphere of continued conflicts. There is a significant difference between open political warfare and simply disagreeing with civil debate. The latter is a cornerstone of democracy. That choice is very clear today in Armenia and Artsakh, because it is illustrated by a foreign reality rather than a domestic issue. We just lost a war against an alliance between Turkey (modern NATO weaponry) and Azerbaijan (ramped up military spending over the last five years) that revitalized the pan-Turkic strategy of uniting Turkic peoples at Armenia’s expense. Bloodthirsty Azeris seeking to capitalize on a weakened Armenia violated the borders openly, and we entered into “negotiations.” Aside from the northern border with Georgia and a much-reduced common border with Iran (after the loss of Hadrut), Armenia is surrounded by Azeris and Turks. Artsakh has been reduced to less than the NKR oblast of pre-1991 and is completely engulfed by violent, hostile and criminal Azeris. If this is not a formula requiring immediate unity, then we will never experience it. In my view, we have not experienced such threats since the Turkish army rolled towards Armenia from the west in May 1918. The CSTO defense treaty (supposedly Armenia’s NATO) has proven ineffective as Armenia’s sovereign, internationally recognized borders are violated by rogue Azeris. If our infighting continues to impact our capabilities, then our sovereignty will be lost, and we will be remembered as the generation that squandered Armenia’s miracle.
The responsibility of “patriotic unity” starts with the government. It must be reflected in policy and behavior and not simply in press statements. That starts now. If Pashinyan views his victory as a “mandate” and ignores the need to reach out, he is making a huge blunder. Nearly 50-percent of the electorate did not bother to vote. If a “good” turnout is considered 75-percent, that means that additionally one out of four Armenian voters did not bother either because they don’t care or have lost hope. This is reminiscent of the pre-Velvet times when hope and the will to fight for democracy were low. Pashinyan would be wise to diversify his cabinet and governors with individuals recognized as not being Civil Contract loyalists. He has made this task more difficult for himself by having an adversarial relationship with Serzh Sargsyan, Gagik Tsarukyan and the legal proceedings against Kocharyan. Despite these conflicts, all of these men are politicians or have at least chosen to be in this environment. Agreeing to a cooperative deal is something they do regularly. Can they do it for Armenia and Artsakh’s future?
Power is only useful if there is a nation to lead.
This initiative will have a higher probability of success if initiated by Pashinyan. He needs to be the leader he has been elected to be and “unite” the country. The next Minister of Foreign Affairs must be respected by Russia but strong enough to work in Armenia’s interest. Is it unrealistic that this be someone from Kocharyan’s camp? Power is only useful if there is a nation to lead. This strategy must go beyond political adversaries. The walls with the diaspora must be legislatively torn down to enable Armenians from the diaspora to serve the Republic with revisions to citizenship and residency requirements. This is another element of “unity” required to optimize Armenia’s capability. With the country’s future on the line, all the assets must be deployed. Whether it is the underutilization of the diaspora or the sidelining of the political opposition, engagement must start with the signal given by the Pashinyan government. If not patriotism, then he has another motivation. Pashinyan has a rare opportunity for political redemption. With mistakes of this magnitude, it is not often that a leader stays in office long enough to preside over recovery. He has been given that opportunity, but only if he is wise enough to use all of the resources at his disposal. There are two kinds of CEOs. The first talks about openness and diversity, but really wants only people who agree with him/her. The second values different thoughts and skills to bring a better solution to the table. The latter is a more challenging management environment, but has the potential for much better performance. What binds the group together is a common vision. Have we really reached the point where our self-interests are greater than protecting a free and sovereign Armenia? The next several months will answer this question. It is time for all of us to understand that “taking for granted” is our current reality and serious adjustments are required to ensure a future.
Stepan Piligian
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This is one of the most positive and realistic approaches I have read following post election results. I totally agree with Mr Piligian, that if we don’t unite now, regardless of sour grapes having to deal with the now presiding opposition of Kocharyan, then Pashinyan’s rhetoric of ‘velvet revolution’ and what not, will just be bubbles in the air which will burst as they are spoken out. I am not a huge Kocharyan fan, but,I am also glad there is a credible ‘opposition’ in the parliament, and more so in the person of Kocharyan. Will he simply be a loud noise in the parliament, or will his voice be heard?
If Pashinyan does not have a credible roadmap to bring the country out of this mess, then his victory is not worth the roars and applause being chanted at Republic Square.
It is time the diaspora was viewed with respect and some credibility. There are talents in the diaspora – yes, of Armenian citizenship – to assume roles in the new government who may bring in a fresh outlook as regards international diplomacy. Use them for goodness sake! If need be, grant them express citizenship to bring in some new blood into the antiquated., ex-Soviet mentality which still prevails in Armenia.
Seeing Armenians fighting among themselves brings me great sadness. All this anger is displaced and should be directed solely at the true villains, Turks, Azeris, and their enablers.
Fighting among ourselves also brings joy to the genocidal Turks and Azeris who have been trying to exterminate us for 130 years. Think about that next time you get angry at a fellow Armenian. So for god’s sake it’s ok to disagree among ourselves but stop the venom and vitriol between Armenians. Save that for the real enemy.
Armenia needs Armenians. I can’t stress this enough. No matter how much in donations, clothing, or volunteer work is done from abroad, the impact of being in Armenia pales in comparison. Sure, the few Uber-wealthy can invest in buildings, businesses, etc. But the everyday tax-paying citizen of Armenia, is paying the annual budget. The small-medium business owner is establishing an in-country market. The large-scale businesses for export are part of the GDP. We need people. That’s it. The war proved this. We can continue to point blame, finger-wagging (softly put) at the governments of today, yesterday, a decade ago (or three), but it comes down to the population of Armenia increasing in a meaningful way that it translates into economic growth. We need this now, yesterday, six months ago, 30 years ago.
I lived in New York and was part of the YOARF. We sang songs, had spaghetti dinners, dances, went to basketball games, learned Armenian history and about parliamentary processes. But when I began noticing how the organization was not quite aligned, or mentioning the nation-state of Armenia, I felt like we had created a “Disney” version of our own culture for self-preservations, as necessary as it was in New York, without focusing on the main goal of developing Armenia. The focus was always on Western Armenia and genocide recognition. I then decided that I would rather visit the country myself and learn more about what “being Armenian” meant as an experience. I’ve moved here in 2012 and have been here since, and you can to!
An increase of population for developed nations in general, can be an economic pressure. Yet, for Armenia, which has widely had for many years and outmigration issue, an increase of population can buoy the economy and bring it towards a boom. We have now the opportunity to have an All-Armenian, grass-roots movement to save the country that has been bleeding citizens for decades.
Patriotic unity, in this post-war scenario, is the opportunity for the diaspora to now freely choose to move, live and work from Armenia. There is not other logical, rational or feasible way other than this challenging fact. Armenia needs Armenians. We are in need of the new diaspora who have left during the first three decades of independence and the old diaspora that has visited, or never seen Armenia.
Now is the time. Conditions are far better now than they were under Soviet rule in many ways (in other ways, still developing as is naturally for a young nation). Imagine if each individual moving to Armenia brought with them an annual value of $2,500 USD each year (a modest estimation). If we had 1,000,000 Armenians from the global diaspora move to Armenia in the next five years (as was agreed with Russia to protect the existing borders of Artsakh), we would have 2.5 billion added to our economy simply by the presence of Armenians in the country alone. This doesn’t account for money, businesses, belongings, etc. Simply BEING in Armenia increases the economy, which produces a budget for defense, healthcare, infrastructure, you name it.
Scapegoating politicians and leaders will not work into this equation for those “patriots” who claim “never will I be under ‘______’s’ Armenia”. We simply can afford to support, listen to, or consider this type of thinking. I realize many people have families, children, businesses, but I can tell you 100%, that the only thing keeping our country back is the lack of our people’s presence in our country.
Another brilliant article and equally worthy comments. As they say,the knife has now reached the bone. Now is the time to act and to act with our heads and not with hateful emotions aimed at fellow Armenians. Examine the problem and figure out a solution. Don’t play the blame game, that will not make the problem go away and will only create further devision. Yes, Pashinyan needs to take the lead and show real leadership by inviting the opposition into his “government of round table”, to contribute to a “best idea strategy”. We are a very “cause oriented” nation and the cause now should be patriotism. Our enemies have taken advantage of the devision in our ranks to their benefit, even so called “friends and allies”. If you examine the outcome of the last disastrous war you will see the political and strategic gains by every players. Our mistakes have been used for their gains. Nevermind the loss and pain it would cause us, they have all taken their “pound of flesh”. Yes it is true, we are a nation of diversities, yet it is not a weakness but strength if used properly. We should use these diversities to brainstorm for best solutions from within the homeland and the diverse diaspora. I am sure there are Armenians in every industry in the diaspora ranging from armament and politics to industry and economics. We need to invite these technical and political expertise from all over and bring them home for the common good. Every Armenian can donate 1% of their annual income to help our homeland as a regular gift. We need to form alliances with neighbours like Iran and Russia where there is common interest and economic or cultural ties with others. Having Russian bases in Armenia and Artsakh is not a tragedy as long as it keeps us safe. Many countries have American, British or French bases and are doing quite well.