The Division of Trade Spoils over Armenia
After the armistice of November 10, Russia gained significant strategic advantages in the South Caucasus. Russia did not just score a military victory by consolidating its military presence in the region, but it is also facilitating the construction of railways and trade networks. On January 11, 2021, a document was signed in Moscow between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan and Russian President Vladimir Putin mostly about infrastructure and transport. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan will be able to use each other’s territory for “safe transportation.” Theoretically, economic interdependence would facilitate trade and minimize tensions, however, the geo-economic implications for these trade routes are beyond trade and development.
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A very welcome, well-informed and thorough analysis.
If negotiable, I would also very much welcome a direct railroad and/or highway from Armenia to the Black Sea. Shipping goods to and through Poti is very expensive, unreliable (theft), and with this new alignment may be achievable, since Russia might welcome less dependence on Poti.
Thanks for this article.
In case Russia has not noticed, open borders (which already exist through Turkey-Georgia-Azerbaijan) faciliate NATO and EU penetration into the Caucasus, Caspian, and Central Asia, all with the aim of surrounding Russia and facilitating Pan-Turkism.
Russia is making the same mistake as Stalin did in thinking that he can neutralize enemy Turkey by being nice to it. Erdogan may be crazy but that does not mean he is stupid.
How does a pan-Turkic corridor through Armenia help keep out pan-Turkism? It doesn’t.
As to the economic dimensions, the West’s economies are much stronger than Russia’s. Western economies will dominate and it is licking its lips at the prospect.
Sadly, in betraying Armenia and inviting Turkey into the Caucasus, Russia is making an obvious error.
Putin disliked Armenia’s being friendly to the West, but now Russia a opening up Armenia and Russia’s underbelly to NATO and Turks. Makes no sense at all.
Russia is dragging down Armenia with it.
At the moment the relations between Germany and Russia are at 0 points!
Last night I checked all possible traveling agencies on-line for a ticket from Berlin to Moskow.
NONE flights directly from Germany to Russia!
But there are many flights from Berlin via Instanbul or Antalaya to Moskow.
Russia is heavily sanctioned by the EU and the ONLY way for Russia to get Western goods( appliances, machinery from Germany) is through Turkey.
For that reasons Putin is soooooo friendly to Erdogan.
The Russians do not consider Turkey as their enemy! You are wrong! I read every evening the Russian Press&comments of Russians underneath and I never noticed some offensive&threatening comments to the Turks.
The Crimean Wars were long ago…there has not been any war between Turkey and Russia for centuries.
Putin does NOT consider TURKEY as a very loyal, true member of NATO.
Recently Erdogan bought S-400 air-defense systems and Trump was very upset about it.
Turkey and Russia conduct also mutual military control of the Freeway from Damaskus to the Turkish border,killing the Syrian rebels, whom Putin names”terrorists”.
Not all of this seems bad. Sure, some things like the safety of Armenian trucks and the border with Iran will need to be addressed. However, with China and Russia being heavily involved in this, there is unlikely to be that much trouble. I laughed at the idea of Georgia losing its relevance, LMAO.
Sireli K:
Turkish and Azeri economic, demographic, criminal, and intelligence infiltration of Armenia will take place. Cheap foreign goods may push out Armenian products.
Turks and Azeris are not stupid.
They will make war by non-military means with open borders. Armenia is small and vulnerable.
I don’t understand why the author wrote the winners were Russia, Turkey, Iran and Azerbaijan when in reality the only winner is Russia. The Baku-Tbisili-Kara railway was operating between the three countries prior to this planning by Russia and Russia just squeezed Georgia out of the game. Turkey was leading the trades between the three countries but now they’re under Russia’s control because Russia controls the trains since they will most likely finance it. As for Azerbaijan those railroads are useless for them as they’re country exports 90% oil and the rest is fruits. Same goes for China as the railroads are owned by Russia so they’re under Russia’s direction as well. If Armenia can let bygones be bygones and move on with Azerbaijan then they’ll come out as the second winner behind Russia. If Pashinyan understands whose fate Armenia’s hands are in (Russia) and can negotiate to Armenia’s benefit then I don’t see how Armenia can’t win since Armenia’s economy is very diverse and they have hard workers.