My Turn
Previously, Aliyev Had Called Turkey’s Leaders “Liar, Cheat and Betrayer”
Last week, when Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev held a victory parade in Baku, he expressed his appreciation to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who attended the ceremonies. Tens of thousands of Azeris turned up in the streets singing Turkey’s praises and waving Turkish and Azeri flags. The two presidents uttered lavish words for one another and repeated their catchphrase, “one people, two states.”
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In order to revive a feud there has to be a reason. At the moment, the Azeris are highly indebted to Turkey. Turkish contractors are vying for the rebuilding activity in the 7 districts after the demining operation which is likely to further cement ties between the two countries.
Another timely piece… had 10 years to action this but decided not to. “One hopes” doesn’t really cut it now – does it, Harut? I guess keep hoping.
This is wishful thinking at the most. Why would Aliyev and Erdogan feud? The Azeri gas goes through Turkey, Azeris won the war through Turkish technology, basically, these are 2 nations speaking the same language, Russia accepts the result and is in agreement. To write a detailed article and finish it with this conclusion is too far fetched. To put a Wikileaks document from 10 years ago and wishing it to repeat is a very low probability.
Here is the cable that the author mentioned (but for some reason neglected to post): https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/09BAKU270_a.html?fbclid=IwAR076BNX9549d60jVsOiYicukDXbHcjNl69nkDJC2Zk3q35BBP_YscSFLtI
It says that Aliyev was willing not to oppose the opening of the Turkey-Armenia border, if Armenia agreed to four minor parts of the Madrid Principles that did not even involve land concessions! How on earth did Armenia squander this opportunity?!
In terms of driving a new wedge between Turkey and Azerbaijan, there are many ways it could happen.
The most obvious candidate is a conflict between Israel and the Sunni Arab states, on the one hand, and Iran and Qatar, on the other. Azerbaijan and Turkey will find themselves on opposite sides of that conflict.
Another candidate is if Erdogan resumes his hostile policy towards Israel.
A third candidate is if increased Turkish influence in Azerbaijan brings with it increased Islamism, and threatens the secularity on which the Azerbaijani leadership prides itself.
A fourth candidate is if Turkey takes increasingly provocative steps against Russia (such as in Ukraine/the Donbass), which Azerbaijan will feel pressure to oppose in order not to antagonize the Russian troops on its territory.
A fifth candidate is if Armenia offers something to Turkey that Turkey needs, such as electricity exports to the perpetually blacked out regions in Anatolia, or maybe that stupid Nakhichevan corridor, and leverages such offers to establish relations with Turkey.
The question for Armenian leadership is what can it do to contribute to the above events, and will it be prepared to benefit from them if or when they happen. But for that the country needs smart and creative diplomats, and needs to strengthen its economy. Broadly speaking, Azerbaijan will get weaker in the near- to medium-term as the oil runs out. Armenia needs to strengthen itself over the same period. If Armenia plays its cards right, its geopolitical position can be substantially improved by 2040. That doesn’t mean Artsakh will ever become independent – in all likelihood Artsakh is gone. What it means is that Armenia’s existence will become much less precarious, and there will be fewer situations where the interests of Turkey, Russia, Azerbaijan and the West all align against Armenia, which is exactly what happened here.