In a sea of uncertainty, one direction is clear

This column has devoted much of its content in the last month to holding a mirror up to our devastated nation with one intention: to address the issues that we are directly responsible for that have contributed to our dilemma. The consternation in our communities both in the homeland and the diaspora is at an all-time high. Rejecting denial and attacking the root causes of our weaknesses will ensure a tomorrow that carries with it the light of our civilization. It is important to define and embrace common themes as we move forward. Several were identified last week that will rightfully be the focus of much debate as our deep wounds heal. As painful as our daily lives are currently, this too shall pass. That does not suggest forgetting, but hopefully includes an abundance of learning that nourishes new strategies to allow for a peaceful future. Some of the common themes are internal issues and choices that we must make (reference four strategic priorities from last week). Some of them require advocacy that must be skillfully executed and tenaciously clear. The so-called nine-point trilateral peace plan was designed to stop the bloodshed with a combination of long sought strategies (return of territories) and freezing the military at the status quo. It is intentionally vague which is both an opportunity and a threat. Each party has its own interpretation of what is written, suggested and omitted. I would like to address one of the items omitted.

Since the 1994 ceasefire, the “final” status of Artsakh has been controversial. Azerbaijan, in its attempt to rewrite history, has claimed all of the former NKR oblast and surrounding territories as a “historical” and “integral” part of a country that has existed only since 1918. With its corrupt but well-funded government, they have embarked on a campaign to convince, bribe or intimidate other nations to support or turn a blind eye to their outrageous narrative. The criminal regime of Aliyev has publicly declared its right to not only all of Artsakh but Armenia also.

To facilitate this atrocity, Azerbaijan employs what I will refer to as the “Nakhichevan model” where through institutional discrimination, racism, pogroms and demographic changes, they literally have attempted to erase the history of the multi-millennia indigenous presence of the Armenians. Driving the Armenian population out over the course of its “governance” of Nakhichevan from 1921 to 1988 left this historic area virtually devoid of Armenians. The destruction and removal of cultural monuments and buildings became the final act to create an artificial environment. The Artsakh liberation movement began as a response to the “Nakhichevan model” being implemented there. Thus began the seemingly endless diplomatic standoff between “territorial integrity” and “self determination.” Let’s be clear about one thing. Armenia has made many mistakes in the last several years that have contributed to the current reality, but those errors do nothing to diminish the just cause of a liberated Artsakh. Mismanaging the diplomatic and military integration in the current round of our eternal struggle is a completely separate matter from the God-given right of the people of Artsakh to live in peace, prosperity and freedom. We are not a defeated nation with a lost cause. We are soothing our wounds, and the challenge remains intact. The goal of freedom will be lost only when the Armenians decide to abandon the ideal.

We have emerged from this chapter with a great deal of uncertainty. Much of this will diminish over time…hopefully in favor of the freedom and peace for the Armenian population. We are left with many unanswered questions, but one is very clear. The Armenians of Artsakh cannot have under any circumstances any level of governance under an Azerbaijani administration. Within that umbrella, there are many scenarios, but this must be the “red line” for the Armenian nation. To agree to any administrative relationship with the criminal regime of Azerbaijan would be to deliver a slow death to our historic presence in that region.

There are numerous arguments for this position. The concept of “remedial secession” has become more visible with the aggression and racism of Azerbaijan. Essentially it defines the right of a people to secede from their present state based on the inability of the government to provide security to the population based on human rights violations and oppression. Kosovo and South Sudan are some recent examples of this justification for sovereignty. Legal scholars will argue its applicability based on the status of the former Nagorno-Karabakh oblast, but evidence of the security criteria is abundant. Our “civilized” world has distinguished itself from the past only by the employment of technology to dehumanize the murdering of a population and then engaging in endless debate as to whether the atrocity fit a criteria so conveniently available when the political environment is compatible. The coverups have become as treacherous as the original crime. Murdering a population can be delegated to drones and reported to the world like a video game. Starting with the Gulf War, we watched thousands die with a blip of smoke on the screen. For many in this world, it doesn’t seem real. Tell the people of Artsakh that their survival, from 90 years of criminal oppression, does not fit a legal definition. The unfortunate reality is that if this tragedy was occurring in Europe or North America, it would not be tolerated. Not for moral reasons, but to ensure the “stability” of the home turf. Atrocities in Africa, Asia and even the Caucasus are tolerated as long as they do not impact the strategic interests of the power structure. Once that sensor is activated, you will see intervention, like the Russian-brokered trilateral agreement. There is a moral argument that Armenians have upheld for decades. It has little significance because it is obvious that geopolitical interests are not governed by morality. I hope we have finally learned this lesson.

Regardless of legal arguments and which way the geopolitical winds are blowing, when it comes to life and survival, the odds become secondary. The behavior of Azerbaijan, particularly in the last 30 years, has provided the Armenians and hopefully the rest of the world, with ample evidence of not only the danger of the Azeri governance over Armenians, but as a result of Azeri racist policies, the incompatibility of the general populations for the foreseeable generations. Azerbaijan, an artificial nation of corruption, has pursued not only a policy of territorial theft, but has established a foundation within its population of vile hatred of every Armenian and has organized attempts of revisionism. This is a country that openly destroys historical presence and commits cultural genocide regularly. Aside from their utter disregard for civilization, they have the audacity to propagandize the ancient Armenian presence as “Caucasian Albanian”—an ancient past culture that had no relevance to the indigenous Armenian presence. Children are taught to hate Armenians and are “educated” with lies and distortions about history, culture and civility. If this sounds familiar, it is the Kemal model of post-genocide Turkey. Teach lies about Armenians in the education system (Dr. Taner Akcam wrote a piece on this), and fuel the perception of a disloyal and mistrusted people.

As many of you know, the word “Armenian” is considered an insult in Turkey today. Azerbaijan has created that same racist reality within their population. Aliyev’s war crimes are rationalized as the result of Armenian aggression and occupying Azeri territory. This is similar to what the Ittihads and Kemalists (and now Erdogan Islamist nationalists) used to justify their crimes. It is a classic strategy of the criminal blaming the victim. We cannot allow this well-defined Turkish strategy to succeed in Artsakh. We are wounded, but we will survive. Artsakh must be free of any governance with the criminal and racist Azerbaijan. That judgment is based on the clear and horrific behavior of their nation. There is no alternative. Azerbaijan seeks only to destroy anything Armenian within its reach. Artsakh must stay out of its reach.

The matter of the “transportation corridor” through Syunik is equally important. There is every reason to believe that the Turks will use this to gain a foothold in the long sought for Zangezur province that was heroically liberated in 1918-1920. Internationally recognized sovereignty must be defended. Perhaps this is where “territorial integrity” will work in our favor, and the mutual defense pact with Russia through the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) will finally prove its value. Some analysts are speculating that the short-term solution for Artsakh will be to maintain its autonomy under a Russian protectorate. Could this eventually lead to a re-unification with Armenia? Clearly it would deepen the dependence on Russia, but Armenia must prioritize keeping Artsakh out of Azeri control. The Russians may infringe on some areas of sovereignty, but the Azeris will murder, loot and destroy our presence. Armenia cannot afford to drift again into a world of political isolation and dangerous positions. Whatever currency remains in the Russian relationship, it must be utilized to protect Artsakh from Azeri governance and the sovereignty of Syunik. There is no question that Putin was upset with Pashinyan’s political directions. The question is whether Russia believes Armenia has been sufficiently “punished” for its wayward thinking. If so, then perhaps we may see the “protector” rather than the “punisher” side of the relationship. We must set emotional responses aside and focus on protecting the foundation. Those protesting for regime change in Armenia must act responsibly and within the Constitution. The diaspora must reach deep and let our love of Armenia overcome our disappointment and anger. Pashinyan must honestly reflect as to whether he can deliver. If we choose a selfish path, then our future will be compromised.

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Stepan Piligian

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Stepan was raised in the Armenian community of Indian Orchard, MA at the St. Gregory Parish. A former member of the AYF Central Executive and the Eastern Prelacy Executive Council, he also served many years as a delegate to the Eastern Diocesan Assembly. Currently , he serves as a member of the board and executive committee of the National Association for Armenian Studies and Research (NAASR). He also serves on the board of the Armenian Heritage Foundation. Stepan is a retired executive in the computer storage industry and resides in the Boston area with his wife Susan. He has spent many years as a volunteer teacher of Armenian history and contemporary issues to the young generation and adults at schools, camps and churches. His interests include the Armenian diaspora, Armenia, sports and reading.

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