These are difficult days for Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. In fact, he has been experiencing difficult days ever since his military forces were decisively defeated in their attempt to prevent the former Karabagh autonomous region from becoming a free and independent political entity. A Russian-brokered ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan brought this war to a close and established the de facto independence of the Nagorno Karabagh Republic. Since then negotiations have been ongoing between Yerevan and Baku under the mediating efforts of the Minsk Group—created in 1992 and co-chaired by France, Russia, and the United States—by the Conference for Security and Cooperation in Europe, now known as the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).During the intervening years, Aliyev has failed to fashion a solution favorable to Azerbaijan, while Artsakh (Karabagh and the liberated territories) has successfully developed a sustainable economy and a democratic form of governance. In its assigned role as mediator, the Minsk Group continues to subvert the principles of self-determination and remedial secession. Instead, the principle of territorial integrity favorable to Azerbaijan’s interests serves as the basis for negotiations. This is an absolutely unacceptable precondition because it precludes any consideration of de jure independence for Artsakh.During the period 1989-90, the government of Azerbaijan sponsored pogroms against the Armenian population in the cities of Sumgait, Kirovobad (now Ganja), and Baku. These pogroms, properly defined as massacres, were responsible for the deaths of hundreds of Armenians and the forced exodus of tens of thousands of Armenians from Azerbaijan.
Having failed in its efforts to deter the Karabaghtsis, Azerbaijan committed its military to a full-scale assault on Karabagh. Since the ceasefire in 1994, numerous breaches have occurred along the agreed Line of Contact (LoC) by Azeri probing units or deadly sniper fire. Unfortunately, both sides have suffered unnecessary casualties by these wanton acts.
During the ceasefire, while negotiations were ongoing, the Azerbaijan government shamelessly continued its long-standing policy to eradicate cultural artifacts attesting to Armenian occupation of the region centuries before Azerbaijan existed. Perhaps the most egregious occurred in 2005 when the government sponsored the senseless destruction of thousands of khatchkars (hand-carved Armenian stone burial monuments), some dating back to the 6th century, in the ancient Armenian cemetery of Julfa (Jugha) in Nakhitchevan.
Against this background, a reasonable assessment is that no acceptable common ground exists for a negotiated settlement. For Azerbaijan, the resumption of hostilities may be the less preferred but most likely alternative. However, there are serious obstacles and inherent dangers if this course of action is adopted.
In his efforts to achieve a settlement favorable to Azerbaijan, Aliyev wishes to recast the Karabagh issue as an Armenian irredentist movement. This assumption would fit in well with his specious claim of territorial integrity that underlies all principles contained in the Madrid Proposals, which set the parameters for the negotiations. The issue is not, as Aliyev wishes to frame it, that Armenia wants to reclaim its historic territory of Artsakh; rather, the Armenians of Artsakh legitimately exercised their right to be a free and independent political entity.
Aliyev constantly threatens military force to retake Karabagh if peaceful means fail. And what plausible scenario could these peaceful means yield that would encourage the Karabaghtsis to relinquish their lands or their freedom? Unfortunately, the Minsk co-chairs seem unable or unwilling to curb Aliyev’s strident rhetoric and bellicose posturing.
To support his threat to use military force, Aliyev has committed Azerbaijan to expanding and modernizing its military establishment. According to a recent briefing report by the International Crisis Group, Azerbaijan’s already substantial appropriations for its military will increase by nearly 45 percent between 2010 and 2011 to $3.1 billion. This is about 20 percent of Azerbaijan’s total domestic budget. For 2011, Armenia has budgeted about $405 million. However, these numbers alone cannot be used to quantify the military hardware that can be purchased. The terms of sale, the items purchased, and the supplying nations are important determinants.
This stockpiling of tanks, personnel carriers, self-propelled artillery, rocket launchers, helicopter gunships, and fighter aircraft represents only one factor in determining Azerbaijan’s military capability (see “Assessing Azerbaijan’s Military Threat to Retake Karabagh, Part I,” the Armenian Weekly, March 27, 2010; and Part II, April 3, 2010).
While it may be preferable, it is not required that tanks engage tanks on the battlefield or that aircrafts engage aircrafts. It is known that Armenia possesses the respected Russian S-300 upgraded surface-to-air missile system. This is a potent defense against Azeri launched missiles and aircraft operating at low altitudes. Rocket launchers; anti-tank mine fields that channel movement along any sector of the front where tanks can be effectively deployed en masse; anti-aircraft weapons, etc. can be extremely effective weapons as, obviously, are the tanks, artillery, and aircraft that the Karabagh Defense Force can also deploy.
Unless Aliyev and his command staff are convinced that a full-scale offensive, unmindful of potential casualties, can defeat the Karabagh Defense Force and occupy Stepanakert-Shushi and also occupy the Lachin Corridor within 5-7 days of the first shot being fired, it would be a fool’s errand to commence hostilities. To carry it one step further, Azerbaijan would have already committed its military to retaking Karabagh if it believed victory could be guaranteed within a matter of days before an expected ceasefire could take effect.
Azerbaijan must take into consideration that within the first few hours following the resumption of hostilities, the Karabagh Defense Force would engage any number of predetermined targets as well as launching surgical strikes against strategic objectives. Which targets and the severity of the response would be commensurate with the threat posed.
The terrain offers significant advantages to the Karabagh Defense Force, which has had ample opportunity to construct appropriate in-depth defensive positions along its frontier. The northern sector embraces mountainous terrain with average elevations of 2,000 meters or more. Any action along this sector by Azerbaijani units stationed at Ganja would be more in the nature of a diversionary tactic.
The eastern frontier stretches about 125 km. in length (as the proverbial crow flies) from Yevlakh in the north to the Arax River in the south. To the east lies the floodplain of the Kura River. This would be the staging area for any attack launched along the central or southern sectors of this front. If Aliyev has visions of several hundred tanks advancing westward toward Karabagh across this floodplain engaging Karabagh units, reminiscent of the now classic World War II tank battles during the North African campaign or at Kursk or Smolensk during the German invasion of the Soviet Union, he is mistaken. There is no imperative for Karabagh to engage Azerbaijan on the Kura River floodplain. In any action, it would not be unexpected for Azerbaijan to suffer disproportionate losses in men and material compared to the defending Karabagh Defense Force.
Once Azerbaijan commences hostilities, it will be under pressure to achieve its objectives within a matter of days. This is necessary because a prolonged conflict would not be in the best interests of the neighboring states. This includes Russia, Iran, and Georgia, as well as Turkey. Although geographically removed, neither the United States nor Western Europe would benefit from a protracted war.
Historically, the Caucasus has been a political tinder-box. Given its low flashpoint no one can predict with any degree of certainty how Azerbaijan’s military adventurism would impact the region and possibly beyond. The Chechen rebel Doku Umarov continues to elude Russian efforts to apprehend him. A conflict could encourage him to ramp up his terrorist activities. Who can predict with certainty what Daghestan or any one of the other Muslim states on the north slope of the Caucasus Mountains might do, or how many Umarovs might be encouraged to act.
Georgia still has Russian ambitions to fear. If Turkey bolsters its forces along the Armenian frontier (which it will), then Russia can be expected to respond by increasing its forces in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This could put pressure on Georgian President Mikheil Saaskavilli and possibly encourage or empower his political opponents. What political mischief might take place in Ajaria? Would Iran view Turkish occupation of Nakhitchevan as a provocation?
Turkey, which has the most to gain from an Azerbajani victory, is not free to respond however it may please. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has a Kurdish minority of some 20 million to consider. His efforts to neutralize the influence of the military and other secular conservative elements are still a work in progress. Ankara has to be concerned not to provoke Russia, which may use any pretext to extend its influence further south, possibly into Georgia. Recently, in August 2010, Russian and Armenia signed a protocol to their 1995 bilateral defense treaty which upgrades the mission of the Russian forces presently headquartered in Gyumri, Armenia, and anoints Moscow as the guarantor of Armenia’s territorial integrity.
Neighboring Iran, where no more than 50 percent of the population is ethnically Persian, has its share of internal problems. There are the politically restless Baluchis along its southeastern border with Pakistan. How the majority Azeri population in the northwest would respond is problematic. An Azerbaijani victory could destabilize this border region. In the oil-rich province of Khuzestan, the majority Arabs are unhappy because they do not benefit from the wealth being produced. And then there is a restless population of students and professionals who could seize this opportunity to stage larger and more violent protests for Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to institute reforms.
Not to be overlooked are the repercussions a prolonged war will have on the international oil market and the economies of industrial nations if oil reaches $150, possibly $400, a barrel. The area of conflict may be small geographically, but the political and economic ramifications are enormous.
Will any one or more of these scenarios occur? It is because no one can predict with any degree of certainty what may occur that motivates the expected call for an immediate ceasefire. It is to be expected that Azerbaijan, with Turkish connivance, will seek to impede emplacement of a ceasefire in hopes it can achieve its military objectives first.
It is highly unlikely that Azerbaijan can defeat the Karabagh Defense Force in a protracted war and even less likely that it can gain a victory within a required timeframe of 5-7 days. Failure will have serious internal political consequences for Aliyev. Embarrassed or disgruntled senior officers may decide that a change in leadership is required. The deterioration of morale among enlisted personnel and junior officers can be expected if army units have sustained heavy losses in men and equipment.
Unlike the Karabaghtsis who view the resumption of hostilities as a war for survival, what is it that motivates the Azeri soldier? Is he engaged in a war for survival or is he being asked to sacrifice his life to gain a piece of land for a corrupt government whose president enriches himself and his coterie at their expense?
Aliyev understands fully that negotiations will not yield the solution he desires or that a resumption of hostilities will guarantee him the success he so desperately wants. This is the Karabagh dilemma confronting President Ilham Aliyev.
Michael Mensoian
Latest posts by Michael Mensoian (see all)
- Facing the Reality that is Artsakh - August 6, 2020
- Tourism: An Economic Tide That Can Lift All “Boats” - January 29, 2020
- The Legacy of the Hairenik and the Armenian Weekly - January 7, 2020
The map is inaccurate per NKR Constitution. Please be advised http://www.shoushi.nk.am/am/ayl/cartes.htm
Prof. Mensoian, do you think that there are bigger interests and politics in the Artzakh situation, such as British interest (British Petroleum) and the US State Department’s goal to access and control Central Asian & Caspian Basin energy (oil and gas)?
The Armenians seem to be in the way of British and US State Department interests in Artzakh, Javakh and Armenia itself.
It has been reported that Turkmenistan has the World’s largest gas fields, and Kazakhstan has the World’s largest oil fields. We also know that China is competing with the West to gain access (laying pipelines) to the same resources. Currently, Europe is dependent on the Russian Federation for nearly 40% of its gas supplies. One of the US State Department goals is to lift Europe’s energy dependency on the Russian Federation by gaining its own access and control of the Central Asian / Caspian Basin energy fields.
Should the West have access to the strategic fields, it will spell disaster to the Russian Federation as it loses leverage and power over Europe; diminishes its revenues; and weakens it. The US State Department would then move in to the kill by dismembering the Russian Federation into many republics, such as Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia, Kabardino Balkar, Irkutsk, Tataristan, etc.
Russia understands that if Georgia is allowed to join NATO or the EU, it stands to be effectively surrounded from the Baltic Sea to the Caucasus. In a clear signal to the US SD, on August 8, 2008, the Russian Federation nearly occupied half of Georgia (subsequently lost Abkhazia and Ossetia) and got uncomfortably close to the current BTC pipeline (only supplies less than 1% of Europe’s needs – sort of a prototype).
It was that year that the US SD showed sudden interest and concern to Turkey’s border closure with Armenia (after 18 years of silence), that culminated with the signing of the protocols and Turkey in turn would open the border (for pipelines – NABUCCO project). The only viable route to lay down energy pipelines from Europe and across Turkey into the Caucasus are Georgia and Armenia (western gates to the Caucasus) . Georgia is now deemed unreliable and unstable to risk Europe’s energy supplies.
The once touted Turkey-corridor from Europe to the Caspian Sea Basin and on to Central Asia’s enormous gas reserves is a dead-end energy corridor without open borders with Armenia. Thus, the US SD applies all sorts of pressure to crush Armenians and force Armenia to capitulate to Turkey’s demands. Simultaneously, the British and the US SD are engaged in depopulating the undesirable Armenians from Georgia’s Javakh region as they are located on the way of secure energy pipeline routes.
With Georgia deemed precarious and unreliable to risk Europe’s energy supply route, Azerbaijan is landlocked from the West and thus cannot exports its gas and oil to Western markets. Azerbaijan’s safest and most reliable route to the West is via Armenia.
As long as the US State Department continues to follow the wrong policies towards Armenia, Artzakh, and Javakh – there will not be US access and control of Central Asia’s oil & gas reserves. The Chinese are already tapping to the same resources. No justice (land, reparation, restitution) to Armenia -> No energy pipelines to the West.
Notwithstanding an interesting article, I have a question on the map included. A political statement is being made and will be interpreted by not including, or labeling, the regions of Lachin, Kelbajar, Agdam, Fizuli, Jabrail, Zangelan and Gubadli as part of lands liberated. They certainly are not neutral territories. Many lives were lost securing these regions. Shahumian was labeled and is not under control of NKR forces.
David Davidian
Hello David, You made a very good point. A point that if you didn’t make it I was going to say it. They should certainly include Lachin, Kelbajar, Agdam, Fizuli, Jabrail, Zangelan and Gubadi regions on the map. I have seen only once that such a map was drawn where those regions were included. Armenians and Artsakhtsis should always include these regions on the map. Just like you said that a political statement is being made, otherwise will be interpreted differently. Especially after our brave men of arms fought with their lives and won those regions for us/for Artsakh.
Seervart,
Take a look at the web site Arthur posted in his comment above: http://www.shoushi.nk.am/am/ayl/cartes.htm . There are plenty of maps that include all regions.
-David Davidian
The good professor did not include other huge factors on his calculus. Namely, how many US politicians and so-called “News Media” officials who sit in on the boards of Big Oil. They will immediately provide lopsided so-called reporting to influence the American pysche.
@Berge Jololian
There are very few people that I look forward to reading. You are definitely one of them. I have always enjoyed reading your commentaries – but what you just posted on this page is brilliant. Bravo! A short yet powerfully accurate portrayal of the region’s geopolitical situation. It’s unfortunate, however, that your clear vision will not be appreciated by our compatriots. Please don’t let that stop you. When it comes to politics, Armenians desperately need to be exposed to this kind of thinking.
Interesting article by Mensoian. But I love how Jololian summed it up in his last paragraph.
As long as the US State Department continues to follow the wrong policies towards Armenia, Artsakh, and Javakhk – there will not be US access and control of Central Asia’s oil & gas reserves. The Chinese are already tapping to the same resources. NO JUSTICE (LAND , REPARATION, RESTITUTION) TO ARMENIA – NO ENERGY PIPELINES TO THE WEST.
Good job Jololian, also Russia wouldn’t allow Turkey or the West to touch Armenia, as Russia looks upon Armenia as her buffer zone, her troops will remain in Gumri, Armenia till 2040. The minute Turkey even dares to move her troups towards Armenia, Russia will frighten Turkey as they did in the past.
David,
Yes I did take a look at it already and I kept it in my favorites, thanks. I especially love our historical maps of “Partser Hayk” and “Pokr Hayk”. Lovely maps all of them. Do I love to see our historical lands on the world’s map again. But for now, I am happy to continue and see all the regions of Artsakh attached to Armenia.
Wow. Hayer Jan stop staying the obvious. Put yourself In their shoes and we would do the same. The imperialist f…..’s don’t care and never care about minor nations as they call us. Also those that are jealous of our rich culture are going to hinder our unity and progress as a nation, no matter how spread we are. Stop being so innocent and gullable. Not an inch of leeway.
Don’t worry Kiasser, the US “News Media” officials can influence the American psyche all they want with their lopsided reportings; but Russia is right next door to Armenia and no one can touch our Armenia and neither our Artsakh.
First, let’s start using the correct name: “Armenian Republic of Artsakh” (ARA).
Second, that’s why it is SO important to have Armenian and strong Javakhk (in southern Georgia) and strong Syunik marz/province in southern Armenia.
Javakhk and Syunik are the 2 gateaways for Armenia: both geo-strategically extremely important for Armenia and Artsakh.
But the fact is that these 2 very important regions are NOT getting proper attention- no from Armenians in Armenia, no from Diasporan Armenians. Big mistake.
Lately the people in Kapan/Syunik were protesting and fighting against the evt. Uranium mines exploitation in and around the village of Lernadzor ( 25 km from the city of Kapan). I saw no (direct) attention/interest from ANY Diasporan Armenian organization or individuals. People were left alone.
The same when the mining industry and with this connected oligarchs destroy the whole Eco-system of Syunik, so that the region becomes rediated and dangerous to live.
This is only one example. The same goes for Javakhk. Those 2 regions need investments, care, attention from all of us.
Dear (Diasporan) Armenians- Genocide recognition is important too, but let’s concentrate on people, who are ALIVE now, too.
@ Varaz Syuni,
You are correct. We hardly receive any news from both important regions and when we do it seems to get overshadowed by other issues relating to Armenia/Armenians. Both areas are strategic and valuable and neither are getting kind of investments and attention they desperately need.
A point of comparison:
Secure and recognized boundaries free from threats or acts of force.
Golan Heights: Israel’s security buffer zone – Strategic importance and territory claims –
The Golan Heights are of great strategic importance in the region, and were governed with the rest of Syria under successive regimes until the Six-Day War, when they were captured by Israel on 9–10 June 1967. Israeli sources and the U.S. Committee for Refugees and Immigrants reported that much of the local population of 100,000 fled as a result of the war, whereas the Syrian government stated that a large proportion of it was expelled.
Israel asserts its right to retain the area under the text of United Nations Security Council Resolution which passed November 22, 1967 and called for “secure and recognized boundaries free from threats or acts of force” for every state, as well as the “withdrawal of Israel armed forces from territories occupied in the Six Day War.” The area has remained under Israeli control since 1967, first under martial law, and from 1981 under civilian administration.
Varaz Syuni, This is the first time I hear about Syunik region’s Uranium mines being exploited, or the radiation problems in the area. How come we don’t hear about this? The papers should let us know so that we properly address these issues through petitions from Diaspora and protests in Yerevan. We complain from Diaspora though about the oligarchs and their selfishness; but unfortunately they are still reigning with an iron fist, meanwhile the majority of the people in the motherland is half starved. About Javakhk, it’s a deplorable situation in there and I recently suggested that this paper or from Asbarez News; to start collecting petition to send it to the region’s Armenians; but I also suggested that our Diaspora leaders and Sarkisian would put their heads together to protest to the world powers; including the United States Senate so that Georgia’s government would stop harrasing the Armenians of Javakhk, Akhalkalak and Akhaltsekha. This must come from Sarkisian. Many months ago he received Saakashvili in a friendly way, instead he should have demanded from him to let Armenians breath air in Javakhk, and he should have talked to him in a strong manly manner. If he is not going to do this; then our leaders in Diaspora should put this on the table to Sarkisian and also work with him towards the implementation and the urgency of the matter for out people of Javakhk.
Borders are scratched
across the hearts of men
By strangers with a calm
judicial pen
And when the borders bleed
we watch with dread
As the lines of ink along the
map turn red.
Marya Mannes
Excellent analysis!
Armenia and Georgia are the only outlets for Azeribaijan’s oil and Central Asian “stans” oil. Afganistan is also a route for central asian oil to worl markets, but who knows with US not making much progress in Afganitan–oil from Stans through Afganistan to Pakistan.
What the US and West wants is a pipeline through the Caspian, Azeribaijan, and through Georgia (if it can still be a reliable route)
Why is Iran helping Armenia? It would like to prevent pan-Turkism from expanding and to keep it with the Iran-Russia axis and not pro-US, West (Turkey).
It is in Russia and Iran’s interests to keep the Karabagh conflict continuning so Armenia will stay with Iran and Russia axis, thus blocking West’s access to oil. As pointed out, when Europe is dependent on Russian oil brings more $ to Russia and more political leverage.
Nobody mentions the 3rd player.
I NEVER DOUBT THAT ARMENIANS HAVE THE CAPACITY TO MAKE CORRECT ANALYSES,PINPOINT TROUBLE SPOTS,ALSO SPECULATE WHAT IS BEING DONE OR CAN BE DONE TO PREVENT CONFLICT OR EVEN SUGGEST HOW TO FIND WAYS FOR NEW ROUTES FOR OIL,GAS ETC.WITH THIS I WISH TO RE ASCERTAIN THAT MOST OF ABOVE RESUMPTIONS ARE CORRECT TO THE POINT. QUESTION TO FOLLOW THEN IS WHAT CAN WE DO IN ORDER TO BENEFIT FROM WEAK POINTS OF SOME OR MOST OF THOSE CONTENDING POWERS INVOLVED.
WE ARE IN NO WAY READY TO TURN SOME LITTLE TAP OF THE OIL TOWARDS US OR RECEIVE TRANSIT DUTIES FOR PASSAGE OF OIL/GAS THROUGH ARMNENIAN SOIL.
CAN THIS BE REVERSED? IT CERTAINLY CAN IF WE NO NOT UNITE,BUT CO OPERATE.FIRSTLY RE-ORGANIZE THE DIASPORA(leave Armenian alone for a while,untill we get well organzied>)HOW? through a 100,000 strong professional colleagues associations me,mbers.THIS IS WHERE OUR BOTH HUMAN AND MATERIAL SOURCES ARE.i have saiid enough.WE EITHER GO FOR IT,OR JUST FORGET IT BLA BLA BLA
Seervart- I agree with you.
The uraniun mine exploitation plans are right now on hold (for how long?) after protests, burning the uranium searching technology, signiture collecting (some 12000) and other actions in Kapan district of Syunik marz. But the danger is still there that it can be opened in the future.
There are already 3 big mining plants in the southern Syunik region.
Now there is another problem: The Canadian owned “Deno Gold Mining Company” is planning to exploit the Shahumian mine ( non-uranium) in an open manner. Shahumian is just 1/one km away from the city of Kapan. The environmental (local) groups are very concerned about this. The director of the company was in Kapan 2 days ago for this. For this open mine exploitation they have to cut 50.000 fruit trees. They have already cut some 7.000 till now. Not a good situation.
You can read a lot on http://www.hetq.am too.
Iran’s most direct route to Europe is via Armenia and the port of Batumi in Georgia. This route allows Iran to export and import products (primarily gas and oil) across Armenia and the terminus at the port of Batumi. Ships and tankers at the port of Batumi will then transport Iranian oil and liquefied gas to ports in Ukraine, Romanian and Bulgaria and on to the rest of Europe. This route does not come under the influence of Turkey or the US State Department.
Iran views Armenian as geo-strategically important because it is the most direct import-export route to Europe. Armenia is the only country bordering Iran without US troops on its soil. Iran is surrounded by the US army/navy stationed in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Turkey, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar (massive US base), UAE (patriot missiles), and Oman (US air bases); that leaves Armenia – the only country bordering Iran – with no presence of US forces.
Iran is interested in constructing a high speed railway system – at a cost of US $2 billion – due to start construction later this year – (passenger and cargo) from Tabriz in Iran-to-Yerevan in Armenia-to-Batumi in Georgia. In addition to the existing gas pipeline, Iran expressed in adding an oil pipeline along the same route, Tabriz-Yerevan-Batumi. Iran is also considering building an oil refinery across the Arax river in Armenia. Iran already has several hydro-electric power stations along the Arax river between the two countries.
The *only* viable route to gain access to the world’s largest oil and gas fields in Central Asia and the Caspian Basin is via Armenia and Georgia. The latter has been deemed unstable and unreliable to risk Europe’s energy supplies. Keep in mind, currently Europe depends on Russian energy supplies for about 40% of its needs.
The NABUCO project (energy pipelines from Austria to Turkmenistan will have to pass through the Caucasus. It is not in the interest of the Russian Federation to allow it. Armenia’s closed frontiers with Turkey renders Turkey as a dead-end-energy corridor. Turkey cannot be the energy corridor to Europe with closed borders with Armenia. The aim of the infamous-Protocols was to open the border with Armenia to satisfy the US State Department, and give legitimacy and international recognition of Turkey’s frontiers with Armenia – thus legalizing the annexation of the first Armenian Republic territories (1921 Moscow Treaty).
The Chinese foreign minister’s visit to Armenia two weeks ago was of particular interest – that is prevent the West (US and their partners in crime UK British Petroleum) from accessing Central Asia’s gas and oil – by keeping the Armenian borders with Turkey closed. China already has some energy pipelines and is currently building additional pipelines to the Central Asia. Stopping China from developing rapidly is another aim of the US State Department – as China is rapidly moving to a super power position challenging US hegemony over the world.
Forget these articles on the Genocide or stupid Azerbaijan, the whole diaspora needs to pay attention to the reclaiming of Armenia NOW. We NEED to get behind Raffi Hovanissian NOW. It is for the survival of our nation! We need a smart Armenian leader with courage who CARES ABOUT THE PEOPLE and wants a strong Armenia instead of these stupid gangsters who only care about fattening their pockets. Please AGBU, ARF help Raffi. It is our best hope. Forget all this other noise. How many more chances do Armenians want at having a stable and long lasting nation? Our chance is here, and now. Does the rest of this stuff really matter when you compare what is in the balance?
Hye Berge, and thanks for the update… Armenia’s leaders and their interest in the Protocols so highly encouraged by USA State Department/Hilary… the vile abuse of fledgling nation of Armenia… whose inept leaders of today were ‘impressed’ by a Hilary! Thanks to Armenians/ANCA of the diaspora – Protocols failed (another of Turkey’s PLOYs).
Come to think, maybe little Armenia ain’t so ‘little’ – are we! Manooshag
good one Michael
The United States State Department is a misnomer.
Gaydzag- why do you write in capital letters? It is difficult to read.
————-
Berge- good analysis. It comes to prove once more how important the Syunik region in southern Armenia is. But till now so little attention/support it got.
As once Njdeh said: ” Syunik-Zangezur is the blackbone of whole Armenia”.
Berge, Bravo great insight and analyis, thank you. Isn’t it great that the truly infamous “protocols” didn’t work out? Turkey can keep their borders closed. At any rate, it is closed between Armenia and Armenian soil. It’s our lands, Turkey can get the hell out of there and go back to Mongolian herdsmen territory where the hell they came from.
Let China be friends with Armenia, whatever’s good for Armenia, it is good for us.
Varaz, Thank you for the site, I got it now.
Admins, Thanks for the map.
The failed-Protocols are the designs of the hostile-US-State-Department. After the Russian Federation whacked Georgia (not enough) on August 8, 2008 under the pretense of Ossetia and Abkhazia, it send a clear message to the failed-US-State-Department that under no circumstance would the Russian Federation allow Georgia to join NATO or the EU, and the West will not have as-they-wish access and control of Central Asia’s and Caspian Basin oil and gas.
The Russian Federation stands to lose power and leverage over Europe and loss of revenue and threat to its own existence (the US-State-Department goal to dismember the Russian Federation into a dozen or so republics and reduce Russia to a small country roughly into an area between Moscow and St Petersburg.
It was only after August 8, 2008, the infamous Protocols appeared to crush Armenians and force Armenia to capitulate to Turkey’s demands and in return Turkey would open the borders with Armenia to allow Oil & gas pipelines (NABUCO project) to cross Armenia into the Caspian Basin. Opening the borders was the objective of the hostile-US-State-Department. Turkey’s reward would be to give legitimacy (if not approval) to the Moscow Treaty of 1921 – in which the territories of the first Armenian Republic (Kars, Ani, Ardahan, Hopa, Ararat, etc.) were not yet settled as Turkish sovereign territory and the frontiers were not internationally recognized borders. The protocols gave legitimacy and international recognition to the present frontiers between Turkey and Armenia.
Armenia does not have land connection with the Russian Federation and therefore is viewed as a good alternative to Georgia, for passing energy pipelines. In addition, Armenia is a homogenous state with no separatist movements; therefore a more stable country than Georgia.
Armenia’s power lies in its geo-strategic location – as European energy supply corridor (pipelines West-East; and Iran’s import-export route to Europe (South-North). Armenia is of crucial importance to the Russian Federation – for if the West snatches Armenia form the Russian sphere of influence – the West will have unfettered access to all the energy supplies.
Finally, it is in the interest of Russia, China, and Iran to keep the borders between Armenia and Turkey closed.
No restorative justice to Armenia (Land, Reparation and Restitution) à No Energy pipelines to the West.
Good question Varaz.I am apt to think it is easier for me to make out what I write and that others-some-would also like it that way.But if it is bothersome,then …just reverted to small.
Now then, Of course Sunik,especially Meghri is most important.Yrs ago,when AIM magazine was being published,there wa one article by a U.S. professor from FL,named Goble was trying to broker a deal exchanging Meghri and passage next to it ,i.e from Nakhijevan via Meghri to Azerbaijan,thus totally circling RA and paving way for Turco Azeri connection. I wrote back in next issue that looks like Mr,Goble wants to gobble up Meghri/syunik,vaguely hinting that by this ,i.e. in lieiu of same Azerbaijan would recognize Artsakh as an Independent Republic-Voila, there you have it is nothing new.
Turco azeris and in extension their Anglo-Am allies have always wished to neutralize Armenian and in extension Irano-Russian influence in that area.
So you see dear compatriots there is precedent to that desire,which will always be very enticing and on agenda of turco-azeris and their perrenial friends .
What a combination.Indeed China,as mentioned by Berge,Above is yet another new player on the Caucasus scene,in low profile and indrectly.I would point out another one that also could throw light on China´being well aware with not only the BP Oil co. and others but also,if you remember, not very long ago Mr. Davout oghlu visiting China´s Westernmost province UYGHURLAND, stated openly ¨¨we came from here, or my ancestors came from here¨¨ meaning those Uyghors who are indeed some sort of turkish spoken and monghol tatar seljuk DO SEPAK it AND HE WAS HOPIUNG TO AROUSE LATTEr to become ready when Pan Turanism via Syunik to Azerbaijan would reach there—
This ,also could have prompted the FM of China to make that visit to Armenia,making it known that China does interest itself with Armenia!!!
Think of The United States State Department as an adjunct. Then ask yourself who stood to benefit by signing the ridiculous protocols shoved down Armenia’s throat by Mrs. Clinton? It certainly wasn’t The Republic of Armenia. Did Armenia get something for nothing? No? Then who did?
Yes Syunik is very important; because it is the state that connects us with Iran, and according to the Azeris and the Turks; those feisty Armenians now that they got Artsakh, it would be harder to get rid of Syunik and divide it between us and connect us for our pan-turanmism agenda. That’s how much important Syunik is to both the Turks and the Azerbaboons. I am a bit surprised though, because generally speaking the Chinese are more low-keyed and aren’t exactly like the Seljuk Turks’ barbarity. But anything’s possible of what transpired in Gaytzag’s thoughts above. Also as Berge is saying above, China as well as Russia and Iran wish the borders between Turkey and Armenia to stay closed.
Berge,
excellent analysis!
21th century Armenian diplomacy is not much different than 10th century Armenian diplomacy.
During the 8th to 10th centuries, one fundamental point of Byzantine diplomacy emerged very clearly, that on no account could the Kingdom of Armenia (East of Byzantium) be allowed to fall into rival Arab or Persian hands. Armenia’s independence was so essential to preserve regardless of the difficulties in dealing with it were.
Medieval Armenia was bounded on the west by the Byzantium Empire, on the south by Arabia’s Caliphate of Baghdad, and to the east by the Persian Empire.
Armenia’s foreign policy conduct was complimentarian (the term is credited to FM Vartan Oskanian) to the three neighboring superpowers of the era. That means Armenia’s foreign policy remained in the center and only tilted in small degrees to any one of its more powerful neighbors. If you humor one side, you have to humor the other sides equally. Remain close to the center (neutral) and shift in small degrees as to not to upset any one of the more-powerful-neighbors, always returning back to the center. As a result, Armenia is a more stable country and diplomatically more mature than any of its present Caucasus neighbors. A stark example is Georgia’s siding 100% with the US State Department and 0% with its giant and powerful neighbor and a lengthy border with the Russian Federation – Georgia got whacked (though not hard enough) in August of 2008 (it could happen again).
In the interest of achieving peace – a state alien to Armenians – Armenia carefully balanced the influences of its rival neighbors. This foreign policy resulted in the Golden Age of Armenia. Armenia’s capital city Ani flourished; Armenia became a populous and prosperous nation, exerting political and economic influence over surrounding states and nations. Its existence depended on these rival empires desiring an independent Kingdom of Armenia as a buffer state, and Armenia itself being strong enough to maintain this status.
Fast forward to the 21st century, replace Arabia with the Russian Federation; replace the Byzantium Empire with the US-State-Department; and replace the Persian Empire with the modern state of Iran.
Seervart- yes.
Turks say: ” Syunik is a bone stuck in the throat of the Turkish people (pan-Turkism).
Njdeh said: ” Syunik-Zangezur is the backbone of whole Armenia”. Not “blackbone”, of course, above.
Bravo! Excellent analysis Berge, although now we have very very hostile and crazed neighbours in both Turkey and Azerbaijan. Armenia I would think, following their history are still maintaining a state same as Switzerland (a neutral and a buffer state) but there is the problem now with the Turks who pretty much annihilated us and then our remnants are scattered all around the globe as well as the Azeris who are also barbaric in nature are driving us crazy right next door to us. It’s hard to maintain a stable and sane state amidst those two crazed and barbaric nations with an agenda in their warped minds to create a pan-turanmism state by getting rid of Armenia. There is also the fact that the government in there are not very sympathetic towards the majority of the people who are half starved (to create jobs and get rid of the corruption as well as the oligarchs). It’s good to maintain the sane and stable political stand with the world powers; but they have to see to it that the people that are the core and the true backbone of the nation are well fed and happy; otherwise they’ll leave the country whenever the chance arise. As it happened in the early 1990’s with a million exodus. Frankly these are the things that worry me.
Neither do I want Levon Der Bedrossian’s presidency again; may God forbid as I find him to be a “traitor”. And I see now that they want to follow Egypt’s footsteps. Personally, I don’t know how good Raffi Hovannessian is. What is required for Armenia is a president and a government who would be very patriotic, intelligent with political maturity, but also very sympathetic towards the people. A selfless patriotic president and a government who will throw away the corruption and the oligarchs for the people’s sake.
Seervart, but how plausible is the emergence of such a president and a government (patriotic, intelligent with political maturity, and sympathetic towards the people)? Sinister supranational forces who manipulate events in the world want exactly the opposite: submissive, malleable governments, preferably corrupt and greedy so that they impose control on them telling these governments what to do for their geopolitical and economic agendas, not for the people’s sake. The matter is deeper. It pertains to the eternal struggle between the forces of Good and the forces of Evil, ultimately, between the forces of God and the forces of Satan…
Indeed there is a lot to be desired in improving living and working conditions in Armenia. The primary reason for this dissatisfaction is corruption.
The second reason is the blockade by Turkey that deprives Armenia from import-export land-trade-routes to Europe and the Middle-East, and the Black Sea shipping routes to Europe. The IMF once estimated that Armenia loses on an annual basis nearly US $1 billion as a result of Turkey’s hostile economic land-border blockade.
The third reason is the continuous on-going war threats by Azerbaijan and the increased Armenian military defense budget expenditures.
The fourth reason is the hostile counterproductive failed US State Department policies towards Armenia. As an example, Armenia’s US $40 million so-called “US aid” (encourages corruption) to Georgia’s annual US$ 2+billion US aid (to battle corruption).
Finally, it is the US Embassy in Yerevan that has for over a decade been granting immigration visas and running daily lottery of US Green Cards to Armenian citizens. How else can one justify the hundreds of thousands of Armenians from Armenia in the US (primarily in California)?
I would add that according to the International Association of Genocide Scholars (IAGS), one of the elements of genocide is creating conditions that cause people directly or indirectly to leave their natural environment – seeking survival elsewhere -outside their customs, language, territory and culture.
Economic blockade by Turkey, threat of war by Azerbaijan and hostile diplomatic posture by the US State Department and its embassy in Yerevan, create conditions conducive and contributing to corruption.
Please, be kind when criticizing the government of Armenia – Armenia is a nascent democracy – just because it does not necessarily align its foreign policy 100% with the West/US, it does not mean it is not a democracy. There is no such thing as “Western democracy”, there is only Democracy.
Armenia is country that endured Ottomanization, Genocide, Sovietization, Earthquake, Artzakh War, on-going Economic blockade of its Western frontiers, on-going threat of war, and now Barbarians at the gates (Turks, US State Department, and Azeris).
So, please, be careful when setting expectations of how it should be in Armenia. Diaspora Armenians have a responsibility to understand the country Armenia and know how to lift it up to the desired expectations.
Berge,
The US embassies in many other countries of the world, not only in Yerevan, are granting immigration visas and running green card lottery to all those who apply, not only Armenians. This is not the primary reason for hundreds of thousands of Armenians from Armenia appearing in the US. Had the life in Armenia been wonderful, or at least bearable, few would choose to leave their homes, their social affiliations, their Homeland. Since their votes don’t count during the presidential and general elections and they’re not protected by law, Armenians are left with a choice to vote with their feet… Imagine what calamity would happen if hundreds of thousands of hungry, impoverished, and resentful Armenian citizens stayed in the country having nowhere to run? As for the US State Department creating conditions conducive and contributing to corruption, it does it everywhere, because it wants to have nation-states on a tight leash: submissive and controllable. Armenia is not an exception, and, unfortunately, Armenian leadership falls into this trap. Again, the problem is not the State Department, but inability of the leadership of Armenia to restrain corruption and build a civil society. I appreciate your patriotism, but in no way is Armenia a democracy. Typical characteristics of a democracy are basically free and fair elections, accountability of the government to the public, protection of basic civil rights by the state, guarantying basic freedoms, etc. These have nothing to do with aligning a country’s foreign policy 100% with the West/US. I understand the implication of external factors on domestic affairs, but I think we should first look inside ourselves before dumping all our ailments on external factors or external players.
The Turkish border blockade depriving Armenia trade routes to Europe and the Middle East has been on-going and real for 20 years. The Azeri Artzakh war and the daily war threats on Armenia have been on-going and real for 20 years. The Western Embargo on Iran affecting Armenia’s trade with its neighbor has been on-going and real for 20 years. Georgia’s instability and its border closure with the Russian Federation, and its often uncooperative stance towards Armenia have been real and on-going for 20 years.
Like the rest of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union countries, Armenia has endured Sovietization for 70 years, and prior to that, brutal-oppressive-Ottominization, and in between genocide and massacres galore; and a devastating earthquake. And finally, total denial. If that does not foster and contribute corruption, what does?
So, to those Armenian-Americans – like Paul – in the previous post – think that only the US State Department have the right to pursue their interest. The fact is that the US State Department encouraged Turkey’s economic blockade of Armenia for 19 years and only wanted some border gate opening to allow access to oil & gas pipelines to Europe/West; and give international recognition to the Moscow treaty, thus recognizing the Turkish borders and affirming Turkey’s annexation of the first Republic territories (1918-20) which under that treat remained undecided – not Turkish sovereign territory.
Yet, even though only the US State Department claims Armenia had fraudulent elections (the US State Department propaganda machinery (Radio Liberty, Eurasia, Armenain-Assembly, continues to spew strategic mis-representations misguiding some Armenians into believing that they needed a revolution to solve all their problems (typically under the pretext of democracy and human rights). Of course, the real agenda is access and control to Caspian basin and central Asia’s world’s largest oil & gas fields. Armenia is the only viable route.
No Restorative Justice, No Energy Pipelines. US State Department hands-off Armenia.
Berge,
I fail to see a direct link between the Turkish border blockade, the Artsakh war, the Western embargo on Iran affecting Armenia’s trade with its neighbor, and Georgia’s instability and its border closure with Russia, as well as Armenia’s Sovietization, brutal-oppressive Ottominization, a devastating earthquake, and the total denial, and, for example, a bureaucrat taking a bribe in an office building in downtown Yerevan, or the government artificially puffing up prices, or the government artificially fluctuating currency exchange rates, or—under the same blockade conditions—the enrichment of the ruling elites and further impoverishment of the majority of the population, or incarceration of an ordinary citizen for throwing an empty plastic bottle on a harassing policeman, but granting impunity for much greater number of corrupted government criminals. Not that I negate the impact the external factors have on the people’s psyche or on the ability of the government to rule effectively. But I think it is the government’s prerogative to establish rule of law in the country. Even during the existence of the First Democratic Republic in 1918-1920, which was in much worse situation due to external factors as compared to modern-day Armenia, the government was at least trying to establish law and order in the devastated country.
We won’t go far if we justify all of Armenia’s ailments by external factors only. Stating this doesn’t make me less patriotic…
Berge, but the West is already getting their oil from Baku via Georgia and Turkey, bypassing Armenia. So, why would Armenia matter?
Not only people’s (Armenian citizen’s) psyche has been affected by Sovietization, Ottomanization, and genocide – inherited corruption had been the only-means-for survival during the dark Ottoman centuries followed by the dark Soviet decades.
Turkey’s Economic-Trade-Route-Blockade for nearly twenty years caused severe economic conditions with direct impact on people’s economic survival and behavior. A country’s survival and viability depends on its economy, ability to trade (import-export, manufacturing, creating jobs, etc) – if survival conditions and jobs do not exist, people resort to corruption (say, a head of household has to feed his/her family by any means possible; i.e. stealing cheating, lying) leading to weakening of the rule of law. Corruption then rapidly escalates beyond basic needs and turns rampant.
American-minded Armenians and their US State Department do not have the moral right to lecture Armenia on democracy, human rights and rule of law. The US corruption and the US Oligarchs such as Bernie Madoff who robbed $65 billion; the Wall Street corruption schemes that led to the collapse of numerous US banks; corrupt Wall Street financial institutions such as Bearn Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and the rest of the schemers/oligarchs at Wall Street; not to mention the Enron theft schemes are all examples. It was American corruptions that lead to the collapses of world economies. Americans indeed have a short memory.
It was not too long ago (late 1950’s early 60’s) that African-Americans were treated as second class citizens – without equal rights (i.e back of the Bus, black/white toilet room, segregation). The Armenian Republic is a nascent democracy of only 20 years – it indeed has many problems and educating people to prevent corruption is the biggest challenge it faces.
To further its geo-political gains, the US State Department does not bode well for Armenia. At least the Russian Federation (China and Iran) would like to see Armenia strong enough to maintain the role of a buffer state to keep the US from accessing and controlling the Caspian basin’s oil & gas. As long as the US State Department continues its hostile and counterproductive policies towards Armenia – there will not be exports of Azeri and Central Asia’s (Turkmenistan gas and Kazakhstan Oil) to the West. The Russian federation will maintain its power and leverage over Europe (supply’s 40% of its energy needs), and china will have all the energy it needs to develop at a rapid pace (challenging the US State Department as an upcoming superpower)
It is not acceptable behavior to take bribes; it is not acceptable for the ruling elite to enrich themselves (i.e. theft) and further impoverishing of the villages and towns. Armenian MPs and Ministers should be working with and for the people.
Paul has a point. Despite the very real external factors (delineated by Berge) that have contributed to the breakdown of morale and civil order in Armenia; which I acknowledge and grieve over for my people; I worry about the tendency to find blame for all our problems in these factors. It is the mandate of a ‘democratic government’ to provide rule of law which guarantees equal rights and protection to all citizens. Armenia’s government is failing to do this and the people are failing to hold their leaders accountable. “The country is a country” when the people behave with a sense of commitment to the greater good for the sake of the betterment of all.
I don’t believe Armenians have completely lost sight of the concepts of freedom and equality. It was only 20 or so years ago when these ideals inspired the people to pursue independence in the RA and Artsakh. We have a just cause and a proud past, but it worries me that we seem to lack leaders, both civic and spiritual, who adhere to these principles and inspire the people to do the same. We are in danger of wasting our precious long-awaited independence because we aren’t pulling together as one, whether from the RA, Artsakh or diaspora. It is an awful irony that after all our years of subjugation and oppression under foreign conquerors, we are sometimes no better toward one another. But I haven’t given up yet.
Garo said: “Berge, but the West is already getting their oil from Baku via Georgia and Turkey, bypassing Armenia. So, why would Armenia matter?”
Georgia is deemed unstable and unreliable to risk Europe’s energy passing through Georgia. Perhaps you have forgotten, that the Russian Federation whacked Georgia (under the pretext of Ossetia) and came within miles of the B-T-C pipleline (British Petroleum). Kindly, refer to previous posts as to why allowing the US/UK unfettered access to Central Asia gas & oil would spell disaster and doom for the Russian Federation. Under no circumstance would the RF allow Georgia to join NATO and EU.
The existing BTC pipeline is like a prototype and only supplies less than 1% of the West’s needs 9may also be having serious technical problems)
Armenia does not have land connection with the Russian Federation and is a homogenous state with no separatist movements; as well as geographically-technically viable and shortest path.
The US State Department would not have put the spotlight on Armenia (with its Protocols scheme-design) immediately after the Russian invasion of Georgia on August 8, 2008.
For 18 years, the US State Department despite annual US Aid to Turkey in the Billions of Dollars would did not exert any negligible pressure on Turkey to lift its hostile-economic blockade (an act of war under international law).
So, now we have a collection of Armenia-Americans brainwashed by the US SD to believe that a revolution is needed to *fight* corruption, and Marie Yovanovitch goes on public media two weeks ago inciting Armenians and lecturing “rule of law”. Meanwhile the US SD provides US $2 billion annually to Georgia – *educating* people against corruption and easing Georgia’s economic hardships – so that people do not resort to corruption for economic survival.
ANANOON,
I LIKE THE LAST SENTENDE IN YOUR POST.
Very much true.You also give the cause for it.However,there is cure for almost all evils,traits(Bidzer) in this case,of ours. Formation socially. Social formation, what nowadays is being coined as CIVIL SOCIETIES. I prefer mine which i have advocated for over 3 0 yrs.UNGERAYNUTYUN Societization.Which we can relatively easier obtain through forming into work profession tyupe associations 5 on the scene already.
Because it is much more facile to have the Medical/Health sector to get together and form further. same with all 14 more fields of professions.
Otherwise, it is just a question of time when our very dear Harienik/Homeland will be reduced and even disappeared-what our neighbours crave for.As to Diaspora, it may go on but steadily melt as well.
I do not wish to paint a bleak picture , as just wrote above,but none the less we are in avery deñlicate situation now and at a cornerstone.
I’ve checked all the comments above and found no brainwashed Armenian-American who’d advocate a revolution in Armenia to fight corruption.
Armenia’s geopolitical position will get stronger beside her economy, if Iranian government change their hardline attitude toward West, especially US, this will give Iran’s an opportunity to connect their pipelines through Armenia toward Georgia’s black sea and minimize the threat of Pan Turkism in South Caucasus, where will meet the interest of Iran, RF and Armenia…Turkey will be forced to open the border with Armenia by US and EU, just for economical reasons, and improve Armenia’s geopolitical position in South Caucasus, encourage more EU investments toward Armenia and Artsakh!!
Right now Armenia needs a stable leadership (no Levon) fight against corruption and improve people’s living standard!!
I think that Armenia’s geo-political situation position is very strong – the Russian Federation will not let go of Armenia and the the US State Department’s machinery is relentlessly trying to snatch Armenia away from the Russian Federation. The problem is I don’t believe Armenia’s leadership has any appreciation of their geo-political value. And, worse is the failed and hostile Us State Department taking the wrong approach towards Armenia for the past 20 years. Instead of luring Armenia towards the West the failed-US State Department forces Armenia more and more towards the Russian Federation. If the US SD can spend US $2 billion per year on Georgia, I am sure they can start investing in Armenia – let’s start with US $4 billion per year – otherwise No restorative justice – No energy pipelines. It is that simple, Armenia is buffer state preventing the flow of oil and gas from Azerbaijan and the Central Asia Caspian Basin.
Armenia is the most stable and mature government in the Caucasus – they need to continue enhancing their complimentarian foreign policy. Again, Armenia stays in the center (neutral to all) and only moves in small degrees in any one direction (sways few degrees to the West, then sways few degrees to wards the Russian Federation, then sways few degrees towards Iran; but never pull a Saakashvili 100% with the US and 0% with Russia – that would be a blunder.
“I think that Armenia’s geo-political situation position is very strong…”
It is not at the moment. Two out of four neighboring states have closed borders with Armenia and are filled with animosity towards us. The country is landlocked and resourceless. A reliable link with the outside word non-existent.
“… the Russian Federation will not let go of Armenia.”
A self-consolatory statement. At the moment, perhaps. But nothing will stand on Russia’s way if and whenever Moscow’s geopolitical preferences in the broader Caucasus region shift. Historically, it let go of Armenia very easily in and around 1915 leaving us (although Armenians never organized mass armed anti-Ottoman resistance) face to face with bloodthirsty Turks.
“Instead of luring Armenia towards the West the failed-US State Department forces Armenia more and more towards the Russian Federation.”
I thought you welcomed that Armenia is moving closer to the Russian Federation…
“Armenia is buffer state preventing the flow of oil and gas from Azerbaijan and the Central Asia Caspian Basin.”
Armenia does not prevent the flow of oil and gas from Azerbaijan and the Caspian Basin: the oil already flows through Georgia and Turley towards the West bypassing Armenia.
“Armenia needs to continue enhancing their complimentarian foreign policy.”
By many accounts the complementary foreign policy has not supported Armenia’s development as a nation-state. It was a retroactive policy, pettily conformable to the policies of those states which had interests in our region. There was nothing innovative, nothing proactive, nothing Armenocentric in the complementarity policy.
“[For Armenia] never pull a Saakashvili 100% with the US and 0% with Russia – that would be a blunder.”
But 100% with Russia may be similarly a blunder…
No doubt as a military Mr. Mensoian has pinpointed many an important issue that he makes w/rgd to a renewed war initiated by Azerbaijan.I would immediately add here, njot only for him but for ALL to know that if Azerbaijan still is at it with its war rhetoric,IT IS MAINLY BECAUSE great Turkey so incites her to. There should be no DOUBT about that.
All the war scenario that he so vividly paints/describes may happen if great Turkey gives the GREEN light to Aliev to proceed.
Now why this would occur and why it would not.-
A. It will come to pass, if great Turkey´s all desires are not met with,such as Entry into EU
B.Or her being accepted by neighbouring arab states and Iran as Leader thereat.The second option ,also of some consolation to her,especially if some OIL is NOT… thrown in in the DEAL by the Western Oil companies there in involved(in extension their Govt.s go ahead). THE OIL PAYMENT , AS GUARANTOR OF PEACE BY TURKEY.
C.If none of above presumptions/speculations are not to happen, then,
A thrust towards EAST, would be another option for Turkey-indeed via the Azerbaijan FACTOR.For Azerbaijan is no more than that, a tool and instrument that Turkey uses.
it is then that the Ward as described by Menosian MAY break out. Note, MAY..as again there are other forces there involved as he well points out to.That is the Russian Federation and partially EU. Even latter may not wish war to break out in the Caspian basin and hamper/stop flow of the oil from there.
Thence, to sum up it is a No war No Peace status.If Azerbaiaj is getting armed, it is because the Mfg.ereers wish to sell ARMS and make money out of that situation too.
Here are some pictures posted on Google from the Armenian Genocide Commemoration in New York City:
https://picasaweb.google.com/bjololian
It should be better for Armenia to gain its independenc from Russia for second time, and to determine its foreign policy according to ist own national intersts, not that of Russia. I do not know who determine Armenian foreign policy: Diaspora, Russia or Arnmenian government?I can not understand even Armenian policy toward Karabagh, you see that while day passing your economic conditions getting worse and worse because of your deeds in region why are you contining to keep lands which is not yours and which brought you misery rather than happines. Yuo quite weel know that for Russia Armenia is not importnat, it uses Armenia for its own national intersts, It does not matter for Russia whose the Nagorno Karabagh is and what the parties want it just wants continuation of the conflict in oder to stay in region and to have plotical leverage over former Soviet Union Republic. I think actually there is great dillemma for Armenia in its foreign policy and also absolute subordination to external actors. Azerbaijan Turkey relationship does not look Like Russain Armenian relationship. You confuse i think. We have something to give them, oil and gas, and they have something to give us we are strategic partners freely choose our way of relationship it is not verical it is horizantal. . But what Armenia can give Russia? Or what does Russia give to Armenia? Armenia gives nothing, because it has nothing to give Russia.,Russia gives Armenia actually very less than Armenia deserve, it is not equal to the price of Armenian independence. You sholud not sell your independence for nothing. Please be progmatic and rationalist
Beyrekoglosu,harakat orduso….
This I know from my father*may his soul rest in peace.
You err, Armenia is not more the near defenseless Republic.it is not only a Free Independent Republic,but also one that has twice as many Diasporans,whether in nearby RRRRussia or further away.
Witness*did you the commemoration acts all over the world by us ?
WE ALSO HAVE GOOD PARTNERS in the RF states,plus Iran a state that has always been our friend nation,unlike yours….they may be silent,but from underneath they will teach you a lesson if your people cross the margin…
say Talish/lenkoran etc. etc.,be ready for that.We want to be away from you for good.Go find your like people elsewhere. Oh yeah,we are to recuperate lands such as NAKHIJEVAN, KARS ARDAHAN VAN BITLIS , when time comes!!!!!
Shahumian and Martakert you must consider to empty and hand over too.