Opinion

Mensoian: Assessing Azerbaijan’s Military Threat to Retake Karabagh (Part I)

The United States director of intelligence, Dennis Blair, in written testimony to a Senate committee has said that "[A]lthough there has been progress in the past year toward Turkey-Armenian rapprochement, this has affected the delicate relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and increases the risk of a renewed conflict over Nagorno-Karabagh." This may not be as dire an assessment as suggested. The ability of Karabagh to maintain its independence and "prosper" has vexed and embarrassed t

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Michael Mensoian

Michael Mensoian, J.D./Ph.D, is professor emeritus in Middle East and political geography at the University of Massachusetts, Boston, and a retired major in the U.S. army. He writes regularly for the Armenian Weekly.

9 Comments

  1. 1.  If Azeris attack they are going to try to retake Agdam and Fizuli.  Given both are major cities bordering the front..that is about as self-evident comment as one can get.

    2. NCO is defined. Why the quality of the NCO is “problemtic” area for the Azeris is never explained.

  2. United States director of intelligence, Dennis Blair is not a military man.. he is politically motivated person and likes to see wars in Caucasus … If Aliev stop buying military hardware, then a war with Armenia is imminent.. where there is oil, there will be blood..

  3. Good advices for Azeris.  Armenian  strategy must be not defensive. Don’t allow to bomb Stepanakert!

  4. IT IS NOT DENIS BLAIR OR ANOYONE ,BUT GREAT TURKEY  THAT  IS ENCOURAGING ALIEV ,IN EXTENSION HIS CLAN ,HIS GOV.T TO KEEP ON GRINDIG THE SAME OXYDATED AXE.THAT  OF ATTACKING NK.THIS CAN ONLY BE ATTRIBUTED TO R.OF TURKEY  IN ORDER TO DIVERT ATTN:from the main/basic issue…that  of recognition and reparations issue wth armejnians ..world AT  LARGE. NEXT  ON THE ARMENIANS’ AGENDA  IS ,LET ALL KNOW  CLAIM FOR “blood money”  LIKE THE GERMANS PAID TO JEWS…INSRANCE  COMPANIES TO HEIRS  OF SURVIVORS  OF THE ARMENIAN GENOCIDE.
    WHY DO YOU THINK TURKISH FOREIGN MINSTRE’S FIRST  REMARK AFTER SIGNING OF PROTOCOLS WAS   “our  border  opening ad commencemet  of diplomatic reations  is contingent  of  ARTSAKH  (NK) karabagh  BEING PLACED  UNDER AZERI JURISDICTION.IT IS AS SIMPLE  AS  THAT, THEY WISH TO DIVERT  ALL ATTN; TO LATTER.SINCE  APRIL 24  -95TH ANNIVERSARY IS COMING  UP THEY ARE AFRAID THE U.S. AND U.K. MAY SUDDENLY CHANGE THEIR AGE  OLD SUPPORT  TO THEM AND SERVE TO ANOTHER SIDE…
    THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS  FOR  TIS LATTER  MOVE..
    FOR UNTILL WHEN DO THEY WISH TO DEPEND ON SUPPORT  OF THE ANGLO-AM ALLIANCE  IN SUPPORTING THE TURKISH REPUBLIC  THAT NOT LLONG AGO WAS THEIR ADVERSAY…
    REALIST…

  5. as you all say Armenia liberated those occupied territories which are occupied in the views of Azeri Turks.  Therefore, Armenians are the agressors as Armenia is trying to defend so called liberated territories but occupied by armenia to everyone else in the world.  If armenia wants peace then they need to gracefully exit from Karabagh which belongs to its real owners, Azeris..
    Turan

  6. Mr. Mensoian,
     
    This article had its highlights, its flaws, and its careless omissions.  Mainly, you did not mention the main reason why Azerbaijan will not win the next war: it is incapable of carrying out an offensive and won’t be able to unless the demographic imbalance shifts from 1:3 to 1:6 — which is not happening anytime soon (if ever).
     

  7.    Real owners of Karabagh and current Azerbeijani territories(historical Armenian lands) belong to Armenians. Azeris and Turks are illegal alliens in there. So, please do a good favor, for once in your lives, to  the original people in Caucasus and leave to Mongolia. Mongolia is the original nation of Turks and Azeris. Current Anatolia belongs to Armenians, Greeks, Syrians and Iraqise.

  8. Armenia liberated those occupied territories FROM Turks.  Therefore, TURKS ALWAYS BEEN THE aggressors as Armenia is trying to defend self and  liberated territories  If turk wants peace it needs to gracefully stop the aggressive rhetoric and  return  of the rest of Armenias territories which belongs to its real owners,  the Armenians.

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