Garen Mouths Off
Banks, Oil, and Manats Add Up to Bluster
It seems to me I may have just realized why, over the past year and a half or so, Azerbaijan’s bellicosity and acting on that impulse have risen, costing dozens of Armenians and Azeris their lives. The reason for the increase in BOMBs (banks, oil, manats, and blusters) and bullets emanating from the Azeri side must lie in the economy. So many aspects of it are shaky that one has to wonder if a crash is not imminent.
As is usually the case when it comes to economics, nothing is certain; mu
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Thank you for this analysis. I had similar thoughts on the increased tension along the contact lines. It’s to distract from internal issues. My fear is that it may come to the point where Aliyev and company will go full blown war if things get more desperate. That’s the ultimate distraction.
There is dissatisfaction in Azerbaijan. The other year there was a riot when the son of an oligarch crashed his car in an Azeri town (if I remember right).
And those Azeris returning from Russia? A source of disgruntled soldiers to take it out on Armenians.
The important thing in this article is the caution not to celebrate prematurely. A disgruntled Azerbaijan may not be any better than a prosperous one. It may even be more dangerous.
Armenia needs to continue to develop economically and continue to play smart. And for Armenia’s sake, I hope Russia improves and diversifies its economy and is less reliant on oil revenues.