From Scratch: The Forced Displacement and New Lives of Artsakh Refugees

Arktash was becoming more in jeopardy prior to Pashinyan the limited losses in 2016 were not taken seriously enough. Apart from the meaningless recognition from Ossetia, Abkhazia and Transdinestra, Arktash had no recognition from any nation hardly the sign of a successful cause even if on the ground life was ordinary enough. Russia wanted Armenia to withdraw from the entire area in order to befriend Azerbaijan. Arktash was among Tamil Elam and Biafra in being a failed secession. Russia never really liked the Armenian self determination cause partly because it was one of many reasons for the failure of the Soviet Union, possible implications for itself, hence why Armenia never even recognised Arktash as independent due to Russian pressure, in the west there was general indifference to the cause. Russia never supported Arktash as Europe and USA supported the Albanian Kosovo secession cause yet incredibly many Armenians viewed Russia as though it did!

@ Ararat I am aware of Turkey invasion of Cyprus in 1974 and the ousting of the Greek population and transplantation of mainlanders to create facts on the ground. I am also aware that only Turkey recognises the independence of North Cyprus and hence it’s international political and economic isolation. Thus whilst Cyprus by itself isn’t strong enough to challenge Turkey on the issue and farcical UN led negotiations continue. As for the one nation two states rhetoric mainly from Turkey obviously the primary target is Armenia. It should be noted that Turkey was an enthusiastic supporter of the Kosovo Albanian cause having once been it’s colonial master whilst Azerbaijan doesn’t recognise Kosovo officially. In turn it’s worth noting the rhetoric from Turkey towards Israel even if it’s a charade to some extent there is no doubt their relationship is no longer in the honeymoon state. Such statements against Israel from Azerbaijan currently would be unthinkable so hence whilst Turkey and Azerbaijan have much in common there is much they don’t.
Nevertheless it was impossible to expect any international recognition of Arktash when Armenia for various reasons didn’t itself, no state entity can function with regard to others if no one recognises it. Also in 1994 Armenia only secured a ceasefire on favourable terms the conflict was essentially ignored by the international community contrast with the contemporaneous Bosnian wars UN this UN that ceasefires forced on the belligerents interference by NATO. Hence to the wider world Armenia was occupying much of Azerbaijan but by and large didn’t much care no UN peacekeeping supervision for example. Thus Armenian victory in 1994 was not to be compared even to the defeat of Germany in 1918 much that many Armenians seemed to imagine it as such. Personally I feel it’s the privileged nations sanctification of their hegemony by stating that boundaries can’t be changed and amounts to ossification and schlerotic ways and arbitrary tyranny even it is nominally to keep the peace, however that is an opinion and have no authority about such matters although there are signs that these protocols are coming under unprecedented pressure although the natural response of the powers to be is to double down in the face of challenges. It’s possible that Turkey would have intervened in 1994 and probable the UN would have sanctioned Armenia had it persisted in its advances after all big countries write the rules small countries must obey them. It’s a done deed but Azerbaijan was nominally prepared to accept some form of effective independence for the parts of Soviet N-K under Armenian and Armenian control of a corridor with Armenia and the parts Azerbaijan outside Soviet N-K controlled by Armenia to be returned to Azerbaijan and the Soviet era exclaves in Azerbaijan and Armenia to be dissolved formally exchanged. However a mixture of fear, distrust, obsinance and Russian meddling (to keep the conflict festering and a role for itself as go between) and Azeri playing the long game knowing that it rightly or wrongly international law and protocols on its side meant that such proposals which been provisionally agreed were never implemented. The issue of limited Russian support for the Armenian cause in strong contrast to the overt and deep support the USA has for Israel and Kosovo wasn’t addressed in your response. Although I am aware of your sceptical view of Russia the infatuating reverence displayed by @Concerned Armenian and @ Gurgen in this regard is a troubling malaise borne by far too many Armenians in my opinion by the unresolved past animosities and sense of desperation and vulnerability regarding Turkey and Azerbaijan, of which the seemingly irritractable issue has been something that Russia has taken for granted in regards to its policy with Armenia. Recent events such as the friendly relationship Russia has with Turkey and Azerbaijan and it’s less than stellar military campaign in Ukraine, the unchallenged blockade and subsequent storming of Arktash have changed this assumption to some extent. Also many Armenians thought that Russia with its supported causes in Ukraine and Georgia would on this basis support the Armenian position and the Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavarov being half Armenian would support Armenia on the basis of identity politics but this is not the case. As for Pashinyan he couldn’t have taken office in 2018 if there wasn’t internal political, economic, social issues that the foreign situation with Turkey and Azerbaijan couldn’t serve as a unifier over. Israel has found itself in a similar situation where the Holocaust memory and the contentions with Palestinian population and it’s neighbours was no longer able to knock heads over internal Jewish issues and unite as in previous years. The relative rise of Azerbaijan was something that had been ongoing for years and the war in 2016 failed to serve as sufficient warning of partly because the territorial losses were superficial, for the talk of Pashinyan dismissal of the clique from that era in those days guided drones were almost non existent technology had changed the dynamic greatly hence what was appropriate skills then wasn’t necessarily so anymore. Sadly Yerevan’s attempts to gain international recognition for Arktash independence were either inept or an insurmountable proposition this being clear 1994 – 2018