What is happening right now in Ukraine is the worst possible scenario for both sides, in fact all sides.
First of all, this is an enormous tragedy for the people of Ukraine who have fallen victim to the Russian invasion which should have been avoided at all costs. No one can justify the destruction of a country and the killing of innocent people. We should support peace, common sense and safety of all human beings.
Let us ignore the unrelenting propaganda, misinformation, disinformation and hypocrisy which have inundated the media before and during the war. There’s no need to play politics or partisanship with people’s lives.
Let us now move from emotional statements to the real world which can only be ignored at our own peril. Since the beginning of the world, the powerful has always imposed his will on the weak. There is no escape from this. It has always been this way and will continue to be this way. All those who believe in truth and justice are sadly mistaken and live in a make-believe world.
Russia, as a powerful country, felt that it was being threatened by western powers encroaching on its sphere of influence and wanted to protect its national interests. Whether we agree or disagree with the Russian view is immaterial. This is how the Russians perceive the situation. And when you are a powerful country, right or wrong, you try to impose your will on others, one way or another. The precedent for this situation is the Russian invasion of the Republic of Georgia in 2008 when the latter flirted with the idea of joining NATO. Russia occupies large parts of Georgia to this day.
Those in the West who have been making sanctimonious statements about big bad Russia attacking an innocent country are conveniently forgetting how the western countries themselves behaved for decades, even centuries. The imperial powers of the United Kingdom, France, Spain, Germany and Italy went around the world conquering dozens of smaller, poorer and weaker countries, subjugated them, plundered their natural resources, killed and wounded hundreds of thousands of natives, until they rose up and tossed the aggressors out.
The United States, the self-declared paragon of democracy and human rights, has attacked and occupied several countries in the past, imposing its will around the world. The US government has overthrown many leaders who have refused to toe its line and submit to America’s wishes. There are dozens of such examples, the latest of which is Iraq. Who can forget the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, when the Soviet Union deployed nuclear missiles in Cuba, just 90 miles away from the United States? The two countries came to the brink of nuclear war on that occasion. There is also the longstanding US policy of the Monroe Doctrine which states that any intervention in the political affairs of the Americas by foreign powers is considered a hostile act against the United States. How is this different from Putin’s interpretation of Russia’s sphere of influence in Eastern Europe, including Ukraine? Finally, President Biden’s actions against Russia are partially prompted by his intent to raise his record low rating of 37 percent. The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll showed that only 33-percent of Americans approve of Biden’s handling of the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
It would have been preferable to engage in direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine to find a peaceful solution to the crisis. As it is often said, “war is diplomacy by other means.” The more outside powers such as the United States, France and the United Kingdom meddled in this dispute, the worse it got, since each of these countries, pretending to defend Ukraine, were in fact pursuing their own interests. The crux of the issue is the disagreement between Russia and the West about an alleged pledge made by the West after the collapse of the Soviet Union that NATO will not expand to Eastern Europe, threatening Russia’s security. Nevertheless, NATO did expand to several Eastern European countries, which Russia viewed as a hostile act.
Russia decided to impose its will on Ukraine, fearing that if it did not act promptly, Ukraine would join NATO, after which it would be impossible to neutralize the perceived danger, due to the NATO policy of “attack on one member country is deemed an attack on all.”
There should have been a compromise found on both sides to avoid war. Most people thought there would be no war and that Russia was amassing troops on Ukraine’s border to pressure it to reach a compromise solution. Regrettably, the Russian attempt to influence Ukraine ended in a full-scale invasion destroying large parts of the country’s infrastructure and causing untold casualties. It could be that Ukraine refused to compromise, relying on western assurances that it would come to its aid militarily and economically, if it resisted Russian demands not to join NATO. In addition to providing military hardware and economic assistance, western countries tried to block Russia’s actions by issuing a series of draconian sanctions, which failed to alter its decision. The hopeful news is that Russian and Ukrainian delegations held their first direct talks on Monday and agreed to meet again.
Turning to the effects on Armenia of the war and sanctions on Russia, Armenia is caught in the middle of its alliance with and reliance on Russia and its standing with the rest of the world. As they say, when two elephants jostle, the ant gets stomped on, regardless of which elephant wins.
The biggest problem that Armenia has is the absence of a competent leader who would be able to come up with a skillful solution to extricate itself from this extremely complicated situation. Since the start of the war, Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan has not made an official declaration. Nevertheless, on three separate occasions, Armenia has taken sides and made statements regarding this conflict.
The most problematic action Armenia took was last Friday when the Council of Europe voted to suspend Russia’s membership in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe and the Committee of Ministers. Armenia was the only country that voted with Russia against the measure; 42 countries voted yes. Turkey shrewdly abstained, and Azerbaijan did not vote at all. Western countries will not look too kindly at Armenia’s support for Russia. Likewise, Russia will not look too kindly at Azerbaijan’s and Turkey’s votes. The war in Ukraine is sure to limit Turkey’s ability to walk a tightrope between NATO and Russia. Azerbaijan’s similar tightrope walk will also be curtailed by not voting with Russia in the Council of Europe, thus undermining the declaration of “allied cooperation” signed on Feb. 22 by Russia and Azerbaijan.
When Armenia’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Vahan Hunanyan, was asked if Armenia will join Russia in recognizing the “independence” of the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Lugnask, he replied: “There is no such issue on [Armenia’s] agenda.” Putin will not be pleased with that answer. He has many ways to pressure Pashinyan to toe the Russian line in this crisis.
Finally, speaking at a meeting of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council in Kazakhstan on February 25, Pashinyan suggested that prompt measures be taken “to minimize or circumvent” the anti-Russia sanctions approved by the West following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The anti-Russia sanctions are sure to have a major impact on Armenia’s frail economy as Russia is Armenia’s largest trading partner. As they say, when Russia sneezes, Armenia catches a cold. The $861 million remitted in 2021 by Armenian workers in Russia to their families in Armenia will be sharply curtailed due to the collapsing ruble and increased unemployment.
Common sense should prevail before the world reaches a doomsday scenario.
There is also a longstanding controversy between Armenia and Ukraine. Both sides accuse each other of betraying their trust and siding with their enemies. In 2014, Armenia, along with nine other countries, voted with Russia against a UN General Assembly resolution which declared the pro-Russian Crimean referendum invalid. Armenians respond by recalling that Ukraine voted in the General Assembly in 2008, for a resolution demanding the withdrawal of “Armenian forces” from Nagorno Karabakh. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine announced during the 2020 Artsakh War: “We support Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity and sovereignty just as Azerbaijan always supports our territorial integrity and sovereignty.” Furthermore, Ukraine sold lethal weapons to Azerbaijan prior to the 2020 war.
One should not forget that there are around 500,000 Armenians who live in Ukraine. When other countries shut down their embassies in Ukraine and withdrew their nationals, the Armenian Embassy continued functioning, and Armenian nationals remained in Ukraine risking their lives.
With each passing day, more innocent civilians are being killed in Ukraine, more sanctions are being imposed on Russia and more ominous threats are being issued. Common sense should prevail before the world reaches a doomsday scenario.
The only solution is reaching a compromise through peaceful negotiations. Eye for an eye and tooth for a tooth will leave everyone blind and toothless.
Harut Sassounian
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we must rescue armenians in ukraine to bring them to our hayrenik,and show the world how powerful armenians nation and we must deal with israel against Iran to gain western sympathy otherwise they will keep support turks always against because of good Iran-Armenia relations also we must quit from csto and apply to nato membership dismiss anything related russian in armenia,Armenia Should run by Diaspora US BASED.
Your solution is to go against Iran and Russia to please a Western world that is losing its hegemony anyway?
No way.
Stop this EU and NATO worship, it is vile. They are responsible for the Ukraine crisis. They provoked Russia into this.
Second of all, this idea that Armenian Americans can “save” Armenia from Hayastancis is ludicrous and insulting.
hovsep,
The morally-bankrupt and hypocritical state of Israel sold over five billion dollars’ worth of deadly weapons, such as long-range missiles and kamikaze UAVs (drones) to our enemy the pseudo-Turkish artificial Azerbaijan knowing full well that those deadly weapons will be used against none other than against the Armenians in return for cheap Caspian oil and access to artificial Azerbaijani territory to conduct surveillance on Iran and launch surgical attacks on Iranian scientists and other officials within the territory of Iran. In addition, to this day, Israel has not only NOT recognized the Armenian Genocide but that it has over the years, since the 2010 Israeli storming of the Turkish Mavi Marmara “freedom” ship headed to Gaza in particular, used the Armenian tragedy as a tool to attack and discredit Turkey but that also it has in the past, through its agents in the United States, helped terrorist Turkey to defeat Armenian Genocide resolutions in the United States.
Iran, on the other hand, has more or less remained neutral in the Artsakh conflict and has always kept its border with Armenia open and in many ways has acted as the lifeline for blockaded Armenia by our terrorist and criminal enemies to the west and to the east. Furthermore, despite the loss of liberated Armenian territories by incompetent and dysfunctional treasonous current Armenian government, it was Iran that drew red lines for our enemy when Armenia proper’s territorial integrity in the south, the Syunik region, bordering Iran was threatened and conducted military exercises around that region, the first in thirty years, as a message to the enemy that Iran won’t allow its border with Armenia be overrun. What has the West done in the last thirty years since the collapse of the Soviet Union? It has gotten close and closer to the Russian backyard through absorbing into the NATO alliance several of the former Soviet republics and encouraging others to join or to look to the West with false promises made and as a result causing Russia to view them with suspicion and attack and force its will on them and in many case at the expense to them of massive loss of territories.
What you are suggesting won’t change anything but bring more misery to the Armenians. We have lived side-by-side and in neighborly fashion with Iran for thousands of years. We can’t change the geography of the region for the fact that we share a border with Iran and distance ourselves from them to please the West which has mostly remained uninterested in that part of the world and has shown very little interest other than using them for their own political agenda in the region with disastrous results such as what we saw happen in Georgia in 2008 and now in Ukraine. The problem with our Armenian homeland is in its successive incompetent leaderships who instead of working with complete loyalty for the interest of Armenia and the Armenian nation are instead acting as bunch of slaves subservient to foreign powers. We need leaders who think Armenia first and foremost and use balanced and effective foreign policy in the region with friends and foes. Our friends should have no doubts in our loyalty and our foes must always think twice before they even contemplate any action against us. No one will respect and take us seriously unless we respect ourselves instead of acting as pawns in the hands of superpowers that will use and abuse us for their own self-interests. Given the fact that we live in such volatile region, it is very important that we act smart and think with sober minds at all times.
All wars are tragic, but some are justified. Despite what CNN says, history will be on the side of Russia.
What would Uncle Sam do if Texas tried brake free from the United States and made a military alliance with Russia? What would Uncle Sam do if China was to deploy troops and missiles in Mexico? What would Uncle Sam do if Russians were to deploy troops or missiles in Venezuela? What did Uncle Sam do in Cuba, Vietnam, Granada, Panama, Iraq, Serbia, Libya and Syria?
This war was a result was expanding NATO to Russia’s borders, despite 30 years of complaints and warnings by Moscow. This war was a result of placing missile systems near Russia’s borders, despite 30 years of complaints and warnings by Moscow. This war was a result of fomenting anti-Russian Color Revolutions throughout former soviet space, including in Ukraine. Ukraine has been a hotbed of anti-Russian activity. Like what we saw in Artsakh, the separatist Russian populated region of Donbass was bombed for 8 years before Russians stepped in. This war was also a result of Western powers and their allies invading Iraq on false pretexts and mercilessly bombing Serbia and giving a major piece of it (i.e. Kosovo) to Albanian Muslims. This war was also a result of destroying Syria and Libya via Western-back Islamic terror groups.
Western powers and their allies are responsible illegal invasions and the death of hundreds of thousands of innocent people since 1991. Western powers and their allies are also responsible for a number of bloody “regime changes” and “color revolutions” around the world. It’s about time someone stood up and said – no more! Once again, that someone is the great Russian nation.
I did not see the “civilized world” protesting when Artsakh was attacked. I did not see them protesting when Serbia was attacked. I did not see them protesting when Iraq was attacked. I did not see them protesting when Syria was attacked. I did not see them protesting when Libya was attacked. I did not see them protesting when Yemen was attacked. The “civilized world” with all its toxic organizations and institutions, along with their Ukrainian friends can go to hell.
This war will end with Ukraine total capitulation in one to two weeks. Despite what Western MSN is trying to tell us, President Putin’s war effort in Ukraine has been brilliant. Despite the fact that Ukraine is one of the largest countries in the world and has a well armed and well trained military, around 25% of Ukraine is now in Russian hands. Despite what Western MSN is trying to tell us, all measures are being taken by the Russian military to lessen civilian casualties. Russians have even kept the lights on throughout the country. This restraint by the Russians is causing delays as well as Russian casualties. For their part, Western officials and journalists have been encouraging and inciting Ukrainian civilians to fight the Russian army.
In other words, Westerners are doing their best to get Ukrainians massacred for a “photo op”. It’s to make Russia look bad. And Zelensky is their Grim Reaper in this regard. In any case, Ukraine will no longer exist after this. They played with fire for too long. No tears from me. Let’s Russia do what it needs to do to that pro-Tatar and pro-Azeri hotbed of Western, Turkish and Israeli activity.
Susan, please stop the hypocrisy and nonsense. Western governments are responsible for murdering over one million people around the world since the 1990s. Where was the global outrage and sanctions then? Where was the global outrage ad sanctions when Karabakh was attacked? Russia was the only country on earth willing to help Armenians of Karabakh even though they were not obligated to. What makes Ukrainians better than Armenians, Serbians, Iraqis, Syrians, Yemenis or Libyans? The answer is Ukraine was getting ready to host Western troops and develop nuclear weapons. Ukraine is to Russia what Karabakh is to Armenians. Russia complained abut this for many years. So Russia reserve the right to naturalize the threat from Ukraine. Period.
Thanks Harut, That was a good article from a new perspective. It would be a madness for Russia to accept the presence of Nato forces in Ukraine. Same applies to Armenia and Iran as they cannot accept presence of their adversaries next to their borders, they need to establish strong alliances and protect themselves against aggressors. Catalyzing role of a standup comedian, inexperienced PM of Ukraine, on expediting the conflict should not be underestimated. He removed experienced ministers, head of departments and army generals and replace them with actors and actresses, comedians, celebrities, and showmen. He was making joke on a face of build up of Russian forces in East and North. Isn’t that familiar? Armenia and Iran should strengthen their multi-dimensional relationships. United A & I = Stronger. Divided A & I = Weaker
Harut my Grandparents Howard & June would be very proud of you, as are all we Albanos. I would love to correspond with you in private. Shoot me an email if you can.
As for the substance of your comments, while I’m certainly not in full agreement, it is welcome to see an alternative well reasoned perspective on the Ukraine invasion.
CA and Gurgen cut and pasta from other threads. Russian propaganda has always been cheap and simple just like their equipment. Least K is honest. Also Russia does have legitimate concerns I understand that but invading and bombing another country is not the answer. Putin is a bully nothing more. Even he admitted that he likes taking risks. Well this one blew up in his face. Its all damage control now. Enjoy your 100 year insurgency against top of the line weapons.