This is an attempt to analyze what happened over the last two years which led to our loss in the recent Artsakh War. If your first thought is “well, we actually lost it over the last 25 years,” then you’re exactly the audience I’d like to reach.
Please note that I do not support the previous administrations, nor do I support the current one or the current opposition. My argument is based on the assumption that Nikol Pashinyan inherited a crippled military and only had two years to make changes, but even so he and his administration made numerous mistakes which cost the lives of thousands of Armenians and most of Artsakh.
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You are very intelligent Levon…
From your lips to God’s ears.
The second or so excellent article I’ve seen here from someone this young. Truly inspiring.
Nice Article!
There is a pretty strong evidence that the war was just the military implementation of Lavrov’s plan which kind of got out of hand (Putin’s constant remarks on being friends with both countries, and that the 7 regions have to be returned, NYT claims that Putin told Aliyev Shushi is the last thing he is allowed to get).
i would not be surprised that Putin actually asked Erdogan to help Azeris, but there were some reports saying that Azeris sidelined all people who had Russia connection, so perhaps this take is false.
There is also evidence that the war was coming unless lands were returned, like for example there is a 2017 interview with Petrosyan where he claims that Artsakh problem would be solved in 2 or so years, and also there is evidence that Serj didn’t want to give the lands back without the status (like the leaked tape).
it could be that Pashinyan was allowed to come only because Serj didn’t want to be in his position, give lands back or start a war. Pashinyan coming to power is the single most confusing moment in Armenian history, nothing of this sort was allowed prior to him. it could also be that Russia saw in him someone they could manage more than Serj, who was actually the true westernizer.
i disagree with one of your points, if Pashinyan steps down tomorrow there will be chaos in the country. this needs to happen a bit slowly, he has to go, but not so fast. unfortunately, Putin-Aliyev know that he has to go and they are implementing the agreement at an astonishing speed.
i often say lets stop fighting, and what i mean by that is that we should stop fighting for this or that politician at this very moment, instead we need to voice what we want not through the politicians but like you are doing, by writing this here, expressing your opinion on what needs to be done. the situation is so fragile, that if the intellectuals amongst us fight meaninglessly an opportunist might seize the power. now is the time for generating ideas, and staying with Pashinyan for a few more months.
he will step down, he cannot stay on.
I agree with some of what you said, but not the war part. I do not believe Putin wanted Turkey to intervene, but saw that it was inevitable. I think he hoped that it would be over in just a few days and that Pashinyan would then come to him and ask for help. He then would have convinced him to implement the Lavrov plan.
Pashinyan wasted time going to the EU and NATO, who both reaffirmed their commitment to Turkey’s security and participation on the international scene.
As for Pashinyan, I don’t believe that the Russians ever brought him on, but he is a weak willed and incompetent man that Putin can clearly use now to implement the deal since the opposition seems rabid and disorganized.
Dear K,
my point is exactly that i don’t know what happened, and i don’t think anyone knows except those who were actually involved, Putin, Erdogan, Alyiev, Pashinyan and etc. it seems there is too much analysis of the situation, and that is not good because we are moving towards a society where the one with the most popular theory of what happened will become our next leader, we cannot let this happen.
we just simply have to stop discussing what happened until a trustworthy person figures it out.
our next leader must have the best ideas for solving the number of issues we have at hand, not the best and the most beautiful theory. we simply cannot let that happen.
I remember massive Russian/Armenian military drills implemented right after the Turkish/Azeri drills. Yet during the war “ally” Russia did nothing and left Armenia to dangle. It was Russia’s interest all along to capitulate these lands to Azerbaijan and have Russian boots on the ground as peace keepers with the final status in limbo as this scenario creates conflict. That was the Russian plan promoted by Lavrov all along who claimed Armenia would have gained more with less lives lost with his plan.. Russia doesn’t want a strong and independent Armenia. Lets make that clear. They all knew the war was coming. As for Pahinyan he is incompetent at best or a traitor at worst. He is neither militarily or politically savvy. Either scenario isn’t good for Armenia. He is secretively ceding more Armenian lands as we speak while arresting and crushing any domestic decent. He is a danger to our future. There is only once reason why a war investigation hasn’t been implemented as it would shed light on either his gross incompetence or possibly a treasonous actor. The best leaders surround themselves with the best people for their designated jobs. Armenia lacks this trait. The past Joint Chief of Staff of the ROA claimed Pashinyan rid him in 2018 and installed the least knowledgeable generals. And that the loss was due to incompetence and ignorance of the art of war. Pashinyan immediately rid the foreign minister and the minister of defense right after the war. I followed the war daily and noticed lies of “crushing the enemy” while losing territory that were never ever mentioned. I knew something was wrong when the President of Arstakh was pleading for help to defend Shushi while Pashinyan was claiming decisive victories all the while asking for old and women volunteers to go help fight. It almost seemed like the ROA military was non existent and Artsakh was left to defend itself. I remember the Artsakh president made mention of Armenian Special Ops refusing to fight early on. Why would he say this if not true? I also remember drones used during the 4 day war in 2016. The only time I saw Armenian drones used during this war was at the end. The war seemed purposely lost to me supporting a treasonous actor scenario, but I hope Im wrong. That was my take. Regardless at this point TRUTH and UNITY is the only answer and a must. Pashinyan needs to be rid immediately as any starting point for Armenia’s future. An accurate war assessment needs to be made. Otherwise necessary useful corrections will never made with important unity being impossible..
Look Joe, I am also skeptical of Russia sometimes.
Pashinyan could have agreed to the cease fire on October 19th and ended this with Artsakh, including Shushi, intact. Instead, he and Armen Sarkissian continued to beg NATO for help, when they were celebrating Mevlut Cavusoglu’s birthday and Turkish “independence day”.
Russia provided weapons and tried to stop this earlier, but we have a society that has not been compromising at all.
I never see you criticizing Western nations for this. How come the last 2.5 years of outreach to the west was for nothing. At least Russia stepped in before we totally lost. The West now whines about how Russia “monopolizes” the deal. France and the USA betrayed us completely, while Russia simply did a less than decent job at striking a deal.
Levon, you state that you do not support the psst Armenian Administrations; you do not support the current Armenian Administration; and, you do not support the Opposition. Can you please tell your readers what exactly you support & why? Thank you!
Please read the first paragraph, it answers your question.
I’m not ready to purify the creeps from the previous 27 years! Lest we forget the 2 million Armenians exiting the country (did we forget Kerkorian transferring over $200 million to UCLA because he had enough of the thieves)! I read some Armenian history to know this fiasco has played out throughout our long history countless times! At the end of the day, if we had decent people ruling us, Ani would have never fallen and we could have saved many nations from Turkish subjugation when Gagik II had the Seljuks on the run, need I tell you how he ended? If we had true patriots who loved the country and scorn those who think government is the way to line your pockets Armenia (militarily) would have been the N. Korea of the Caucuses, and then Trump would come on the Turkish Armenian border shaking hands with the Armenian president or Prime minister.
PS It works like this when you don’t have to rely on Russia and instead you’re the N. Korea of the Caucuses, should Azerbaijan and Turkey get tough, a broadcast in Turkish will air on Azeri and Turkish TV, “all none Turkish individuals dwelling in Ankara and Baku, you have 8 hrs to evacuate those cities at which time they’ll be subjected to a nuclear strike”…You’ll get the attention of many and put those to petty dictators in training of how to behave!
Do you realize that North Korea exists because of dependence on China? They are by no means independent.
Pashinyan did not rely on Russia, in fact all he did was beg NATO and the EU. Both of them reaffirmed Turkey’s importance to their respective alliances. Had Pashinyan gone to the Russians earlier, we would have still had the Lavrov plan and kept Shushi with a few Azerbaijani refugees “returning”.
Instead, you Russophobes decided to act passive aggressive and cynical, pretending Putin was the boogeyman out to destroy our lives. He managed to get Aliyev to stop on October 19th, but Pashinyan rejected it, because our society is so uncompromising.
Oh, and Trump did nothing for Armenians, your fantasy of him is deluded.
Great job Levon jan !!! I wish those who blindly support Pashinian would read this article
I’m glad you addressed the people that were appointed by Pashinyan. Their lack of tact was honestly embarrassing.
Great points. Well written.
This is one of the best pieces I’ve encountered in my 40+ years of Armenian reading (regardless of how much I agree/disagree with its content).