Yes, it’s coming, an unnecessary election designed to serve the interests of one party (at best) and, more realistically, one megalomaniac. This is not a diatribe directed at Mike Gatto, who has often been the object of harsh criticism from me; instead, it is about Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the man who would be a newfangled, neo-Ottoman sultan and (now) his Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi (AKP).
It’s all over except for the bloodshed, to all appearances. With acting/caretaker/interim (whatever the proper term is) Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu announcing on Aug. 13 that “an early election is the only option ahead,” it is only a matter of time before that election is held. Given the legalities and likely actions of the parties and people involved, the earliest date would be Nov. 22.
“What bloodshed?” you might be wondering. It is the blood that has already started flowing with Turkey’s stalling on negotiations with the Partiya Karkeren Kurdistan (PKK), resulting in the termination of the latter’s unilaterally declared ceasefire, which provided the excuse for the AKP-led government to start bombing Kurdish areas. This was accomplished by duping Turkey’s American “partner,” who was led to believe that Turkey was finally aboard to fight the threat posed by the Islamic State (IS) operating in Iraq and Syria. But Turkey has bombed 3 IS targets (all on the first day) and 300 Kurdish ones!
Imagine, even American military folks are complaining. Americans were almost bombed when given only 10 minutes to clear out of the target area! No less an establishment, pro-Turkey, often hawkish a source as the Wall street Journal reported: “It’s clear that ISIL was a hook,” said a senior U.S. military official, referring to Islamic State. “Turkey wanted to move against the PKK, but it needed a hook.”
How are bombing Kurds and elections in Turkey connected? Since the AKP did not get a majority in the Turkish Parliament in the June 7 election, Erdogan’s march towards creating an “authoritarian democracy,” ruled effectively by himself, has been hamstrung. He needs that majority to change Turkey’s constitution to vest the president (him) with greater powers. So, Erdogan, through his puppet Davutoglu, started the bombing to rile up the extreme nationalist/chauvinist sector of Turkish society so that they would vote for the AKP in the upcoming election.
Remember, this election is going to be held because the AKP, which got the largest number of seats in parliament, and, through Davutoğlu, is charged with forming a coalition government, has set conditions unacceptable to any of the other three parties in parliament. “Self fulfilling prophecy” anyone?
I would not even be surprised if we learn from Erdogan’s memoirs or colleagues, many years from now, that he intentionally stalled the Kurdish peace talks to see how the June election would turn out. For him and his ego, everything and everyone else seem to be secondary.
Of course there’s a risk to this abominable, bloody, electoral tactic. Since those paying the heaviest price are the Kurds, and since many Kurds vote for the AKP on religious grounds, the party might actually lose Kurdish votes while simultaneously not gaining enough right-wing voters’ support to compensate. In that case, the biggest winner might be the Kurdish/minority/diversity based Halklarin Demokratik Partisi (HDP).
It is tragic that so many people will die, many of them Armenians or their hidden descendants, to suit one man’s ego.
Write your Representatives, Senators, President Obama, and Secretary of State Kerry demanding that they rein in Turkey/Erdogan to save Turkish, Kurdish, Assyrian, Armenian, Alevi, and even American lives and so that the Islamic State is not given time to recover and reestablish good relations with Turkey, once its most formidable opponents—Kurdish fighters—are killed or sidelined.
Garen Yegparian
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“..and since many Kurds vote for the AKP on religious grounds”
This was true in previous elections, but not in this past election. AKP received 9% less votes than in 2011. HDP increased their votes by 7.5%, though this was helped by them running as a unified party and not as independents. AKP and the Kurdish independents used to be in compete for many of the south eastern and far eastern provinces. HDP won every single one of those provinces in 2015. There’s no way they could have done this without the religious Kurds voting for them.
“…while simultaneously not gaining enough right-wing voters’ support to compensate.”
The right wing votes they need are with MHP currently. Last 3 elections for MHP:
2007: 14.27%
2011: 13.01%
2015: 16.29%
Those are remarkably stable numbers for a far-right party. And let’s be clear: MHP and AKP are not that similar. The Turkish radical right takes two forms: the ultraconservative religious faction, and the ultranationalists. The ultraconservative vote goes overwhelmingly to AKP with a small minority voting for SP (Welfare Party). The ultranationalists place the Turkish national identity and the Turkish “race” above all else. MHP has, and will continue to have a monopoly over these votes. Looking at the recent electoral history, and considering nothing much has changed with MHP, at most MHP will lose 2-3% of its votes to AKP, and that’s worst case scenario. At this point you’d have to assume there’s no chance religious Kurds go back to AKP. And I don’t see where else the votes can come from. AKP won 258 seats in the 2015 election, in increase of 2 or 3 percent is not going to get them to the 330 or 367 MP mark they’d ideally want. They need 70+ seats to get what they want. But apparently our Sultan’s ego has gotten so big that he can’t do the basic math to see AKP cannot win that many more seats… of course this is assuming elections will be free and fair.
Typo: “used to be in competition for”