My Turn
Erdogan’s tightrope walk between East and West may soon collapse
Ever since Pres. Joe Biden’s election last November, hundreds of articles have been published around the world analyzing the problematic relations between Turkey and the United States. Pres. Biden has made no secret of his dislike, if not outright hostility, toward Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
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Lets face it. NO one likes Turks. Especially the Europeans who know all too well the Turkish traits and history of invasion, rape, murder, theft and oppression, and understand it being a most untrustworthy race. It was Turkey that thwarted the 4th US infantry during the Iraq invasion. It is Turkey that is one of the most human right violating countries on this planet. It is NATO member Turkey that today buys Russian military equipment. It is Turkey that is claiming stake to Greek territories to exploit oil and gas for its own benefit. This is all understood.
The years of purposeful white washing comes from the Donemeh controlled media and lobbying groups and the US State department, portraying Turks as “friends”, “just like you and me”, and “a wonderful safe place to visit” and a most important “American ally”.. We all know its nonsense. Yet because of the reality of its strategic location and Incirlik air base, which was stolen from an Armenian family during the AG BTW, Turkey seems to avoid any consequences. They are politically cunning and have consistently gotten a pass from all American administrations. In Trumps case, hes morally bankrupt and admires dictators and criminal types. No big surprise there. Obama’s complete weaseling on his pledge to acknowledge the Armenian Genocide is another example of Turkish appeasement. However, the recent sanctions and American and Greek military drills near Turkish “borders”, may just be a turning point but its too early to tell. Will Pres Biden utter the word “GENOCIDE” this April 24th? Highly unlikely. As in the past, it will be used as a tool to real in Turkish expansion and adventurism and its counter productive behavior. Nothing will change, Turkey will get yet another pass and history will repeat itself. Unfortunately..
But then, you have ignored the elephant…I mean bear, in the room. The Russian Bear.
It is in Armenia’s interest for Turkey to be close to the West and have bad relations with Russia. When Russia thinks it can pull Turkey away from the West, it sacrifices Armenian interests and even territory to do so. That happened 100 years ago with the Turkish-Armenian War; it happened recently with Artsakh.
I don’t believe things are as simple as “Turkey bought Russian missiles so now the USA has a problem with Turkey”. It may be true, but then again it may not be true. It’s always a cat and mouse game with the USA and Russia with Turkey always getting the benefits, and Armenia always suffering because of it.
For example, how do we know that the USA is not the one pushing for Turkey to purchase Russian missile systems? That could be to show a fake conflict between two “allies” at first, a similar game played by Turkey and Israel from time to time. It could also be to study the system. It makes me wonder if Turkey studied the Russian missile system and figured out a way to locate it as a result during a conflict, and capitalized on that knowledge on behalf of Azerbaijan against the naive and inept “leaders” of Armenia trying to use the system in the last fake war in Artsakh, albeit an inferior version of it.
One has to also laugh how Turkey is in NATO, yet Russia sells them S-400 system, and Russia is supposedly Armenia’s “ally” and Armenia gets stuck with outdated Soviet JUNK (ineffective S-300).
Here is another funny one, funny as in how militarily inept and impotent Armenia’s “leadership” is. After Turkey announced it’s deal with Russia to purchase an advanced missile system that can shoot down modern warplanes, Armenia announces a purchase of advanced Russian warplanes with funds that it does not have and that could probably be shot down by what Turkey just purchased. And to top it off, those planes cannot enter any combat service any time soon because they did not yet have any missiles available to Armenia.
Seriously, are Armenian “leaders” this incompetent? A school child who plays Call of Duty video games can make better military decisions than these people with supposedly “a century of military relations with close ally Russia”.
I agree with everything you wrote, except the part that Biden is “highly unlikely” he will utter the word genocide on April 24. I suggest you don’t stick your neck out to make such a prediction. Prophecy is a dangerous profession. It’s best to say, we don’t know if Biden will or will not. That way you won’t be embarrassed either way. That’s what I would say. What would you do if Biden ends up recognizing the Genocide? It will be embarrassing for you.
No I agree no one has a crystal ball or can predict the future. But history does have a habit of repeating itself. I remember Obama sending Susan Powers to the Armenian community proclaiming that he will acknowledge the truth of the Armenian genocide and that a policy ignoring truth is an ‘untenable policy’. Then, a Presidential candidate Obama specifically said, “Two years ago, I criticized the Secretary of State for the firing of U.S. Ambassador to Armenia, John Evans, after he properly used the term ‘genocide’ to describe Turkey’s slaughter of thousands of Armenians starting in 1915. … as President I will recognize the Armenian Genocide.” We know in all 8 years as President, every April 24th, Obama avoided the word GENOCIDE… That is why I have doubts.
If Pres Biden this April 24th does finally acknowledge the AG as Genocide, it wont be embarrassing at all. On the contrary, it will be a joyous day for me and for my grandparents, whose family members were destroyed and who’s lands were stolen, and for all Armenians whose lives were destroyed. If President Biden bucks the 106 year trend, I plan on law suits as I have deeds to lands stolen. Turks understand this well. That’s why State Department beck channels will take over and Biden will follow history and make a water down acknowledgment of the “Armenian massacres” like all the others, other the Reagan who said it only one time. I hope I’m wrong..
BTW I very much enjoy your articles. They are well written and well thought out and bring great perspective…
I understand that it is good to have optimism, but this is delusional. Being a human rights violator is not something that makes or breaks a relationship with the USA. Americans don’t care about that as much as people think they do. Also, Erdogan is not going to be the leader forever, and it looks like others in the Turkish government are trying to get him to tone down his vitriolic remarks.