The leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia signed an agreement, calling it a “statement,” on November 9, 2020 to stop the 45-day war in Artsakh and return to Azerbaijan the territories previously belonging to Armenians.
This shocking announcement was made by Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan creating distress and despair among Armenians worldwide. There are four reasons why Armenians reacted with such pessimism and grief:
1) After 45 days of constantly hearing from Armenian officials that “We are winning,” all of a sudden we are told that we have in fact suffered a devastating defeat. Even the number of our dead soldiers was underreported, according to the latest announcement of the Armenian Ministry of Health. Regrettably, the final toll is expected to be in the thousands.
2) This was probably the greatest loss since the Armenian Genocide of 105 years ago. Armenians are demoralized and deceived by their own leaders. It shook the very essence of their souls. This was a humiliating capitulation. Descendants of the Armenian Genocide, who still carry in their genes the transgenerational trauma of that greatest tragedy, are deeply affected by this enormous defeat, exposing their long unhealed wounds.
3) The deaths of thousands of young Armenian soldiers killed in the battle has deeply saddened all Armenians. Many are wondering if their sacrifice was in vain.
4) Armenians lost a large portion of their historic territories along with their homes, churches, monuments and cemeteries. Just like the effects of the Genocide a century ago are still raw in today’s generation, this latest disaster will have a lasting effect on the psyche of all Armenians.
A huge controversy has been raging in Armenia and the Diaspora after the release of this problematic “statement.” The Armenian people, who were united like one person throughout the war, all of a sudden have been divided and at each other’s throats. There have been many ugly incidents in Yerevan which will hopefully not spill into the Diaspora. No Armenian should commit an act of violence against any other Armenian or destroy any property. Even though we have a very serious problem, attacking each other will not solve anything. At the same time, those who are engaged in peaceful protests in Yerevan should be allowed to do so without any harassment by the government. People’s right to free speech should be respected especially by a leader who came to power touting democratic rights and values.
The next controversy is identifying those responsible for this debacle. Here again we have two opposing camps. Prime Minister Pashinyan and his supporters acknowledge that he had no choice but to sign the tripartite “statement” in order to avoid the loss of more territories to Azerbaijan and save thousands of Armenian soldiers who may have been captured or killed. Those supporting this point of view have blamed the previous presidents for enriching themselves at the expense of the nation and not strengthening the military. Pashinyan said that if he had refused to sign the “statement,” the consequence would have been much worse for the Armenian nation. Azerbaijan would have taken over the rest of Artsakh.
Those opposed to Pashinyan’s position state that the Prime Minister is merely dumping responsibility for the defeat on his predecessors. They point out that Pashinyan made the decision to sign the “statement” unilaterally, consulting only with the President of Artsakh and military leaders. Pashinyan did not inform the President of Armenia, the Foreign Minister (who just resigned on Monday) or Armenia’s National Assembly. They all found out about this ill-fated announcement from the media. This was not expected from a Prime Minister who came to power as a defender of democracy and transparency. Not even France and the United States (the two other mediating members of the Minsk Group) were consulted. Pashinyan also did not respect the promise he had made on August 17, 2018, in front of the 300,000 people at Republic Square, announcing that he “will not sign secretly any paper on Artsakh.” He added that “if there is such a situation, I will come and stand here, present to you all the details, and you will decide if we are going to accept that option or not.” Pashinyan now claims that this “statement” is merely a ceasefire, not an agreement on the Artsakh conflict. Obviously, the signed “statement” is much more than a ceasefire. It is the return of the seven regions in addition to giving up a large portion of Artsakh. As a result, Pashinyan’s opponents seek his resignation.
In my view, there is a much simpler explanation. Ever since the 1994 ceasefire, Armenians in and out of Armenia were totally opposed to returning the liberated territories to Azerbaijan, as were the leaders of Armenia and Artsakh. The only exception was Pres. Levon Ter-Petrosyan who wanted to make territorial concessions to Azerbaijan, as a result of which he was forced out of office. The subsequent presidents of Armenia knew well that the people would not accept any kind of territorial concessions regarding Artsakh. Ever since the 1994 ceasefire, there have been dozens of fruitless meetings between the foreign ministers and heads of Armenia and Azerbaijan, mediated by the Minsk Group of France, Russia and the United States. The Armenian position was that we will consider returning some of the territories around Artsakh if Azerbaijan recognized Artsakh’s independence. Armenians wanted a package deal rather than a step-by-step solution. The reason was that should Armenians give up the surrounding territories first, Azerbaijan would then be in a position to take over Artsakh itself.
In the meantime, Armenians and the rest of the world repeatedly stated that there is no military solution to the Artsakh conflict which should be resolved through peaceful negotiations. However, Pres. Aliyev kept threatening to use military force to recover the lost territories. Using its huge oil income, Azerbaijan bought billions of dollars of sophisticated weapons from Israel, Russia and others. Armenia also bought some weapons but did not have the resources to match Azerbaijan’s military buildup. Armenians did not take Aliyev’s threats seriously. Finally, Azerbaijan secured the support and participation of the powerful Turkish military and recruited several thousand Islamist terrorist mercenaries to fight on its side. The highly technological war with remote control drones and missiles devastated the Armenian military and conquered what Armenia and Artsakh was not willing to give up, despite the heroic efforts of the Armenian soldiers.
Therefore, rather than asking who is to blame for this fiasco, Armenians need to acknowledge that we paid the price for being unable to counter the powerful weapons of Azerbaijan and Turkey which has the second most powerful military in NATO. As Prime Minister Pashinyan acknowledged, if he had conceded some of the territories around Artsakh earlier, there would not have been this capitulation. However, if we had given up these areas without an agreement on the final status of Artsakh, Azerbaijan would have then attacked and captured Artsakh itself.
There are two basic facts that we must all admit:
1) The powerful side always wins in a war, no matter how just the weaker side’s cause is. Armenians did not use the last 26 years to turn Artsakh into an impenetrable fortress. They should have had a defense system to shield Artsakh from drone attacks.
2) When you are weak and rely on others to save you, you would be disappointed and defeated. Armenians kept saying that we were left alone. This is not surprising. All countries make decisions based on their own national interests.
The “statement” signed by Pashinyan is devastating. We need to find a way to minimize our losses. Besides losing the territories in and around Artsakh, we should not have agreed to provide a corridor through Armenia to Azerbaijan to connect with Nakhichevan. This would allow Turkey to cross Armenia by land and link with Azerbaijan and beyond to other Turkic republics. This is the realization of Turkey’s Pan-Turanism dream which we should not permit at all cost.
Finally, the text of the “statement,” which is the equivalent of a treaty according to Armenia’s constitution, should be submitted to Armenia’s Constitutional Court and the Parliament for ratification. Otherwise, it would have no legal value. Armenia should also involve France and the United States in the negotiation process to get a better deal.
Even though Pashinyan acknowledged that as Commander-in-Chief he is responsible for Armenia’s defeat, he refuses to resign. Therefore, a referendum should be held to see if the Armenian public approves or rejects the “statement.” If they reject it, Pashinyan would have no choice but to resign. The new elected leader, hopefully not one from the discredited previous regimes, would then try to negotiate a revised agreement considering the one signed by the ousted Pashinyan to be null and void. This option, however, carries the risk of a fresh attack on Artsakh by Azerbaijan.
I hope Armenia’s new leaders will go through this traumatic experience with sound judgment and concentrate their energies on building a powerful military so they can counter any future attacks by Azerbaijan and Turkey. Finally, this is the right time for Armenia to recognize Artsakh’s independence or its unification with Armenia, thereby introducing an unexpected new factor in the negotiations with Azerbaijan.
Harut Sassounian
The statement has been signed by Putin on behalf of Russia, they would expect full compliance to the statement nothing less. Russia would use other techniques up its sleeve to ensure everyone falls in line and do their bit to ensure compliance of the statement as their prestige is at stake.
I appreciate the sobering and well articulated message. The most important point at this stage is not to go back to relinquishing Armenia to oligarchs again. We have lost precious lives and land, however it would be an even bigger loss to cede Armenia to corrupt thieving hands again.
Too many people have turned into armchair generals. The community has to come to grasp with reality and plan for a stronger and prosperous Armenia and Artsakh before we lose what’s left of the lands!
Absolutely true. Moreover, Arayik Harutyunyan and Nikol Pashinyan should be punished due to destroy the whole nation’s economy moral courage, they just simply walked away over the blood of our best boys, makes us a coward nation
Did Armenia lose its entire army and military capability in this “war”? If the answer is no, then Armenia needs to launch a full scale war to the death with Azerbaijan if it wants any kind of future or existence. Well, unless the lies we were told for 30 years are actually a lot bigger than we now realize, that Armenia has a powerful army (and yet does not), and it did not openly participate in this war (and yet it did), and it is fully intact. Azerbaijan seems to have thrown everything at little Artsakh, so now is the time or it will be too late after some time passes. If the answer is yes, never mind this idea, it actually means 30 years of lies by the “Armenian Government” has cost us our country.
Sorry, my opinion is, either full scale war or loss of sovereignty and ultimately destruction of the Armenian nation in the future, or a slow motion suicide. A couple Iskanders cannot turn a war, but Iskanders with some dirty nukes perhaps can. By the way, why is the dam in mingachevir still operating? If Armenia accepts its loss, it will never recover to being a free regional power, because Azerbaijan will emerge as a more powerful nation than Armenia will ever be.
Dumb leaders of Armenia sat back and watched Azerbaijan get rich and buy weapons for the past 20 years while it was barking for war against Armenia all along. The next round is going to be even worse, because the same dumb leaders of Armenia (very suspiciously) didn’t even touch the pipelines which are making Azerbaijan rich. What is this all about. Bribes from British Petroleum? The Armenian “government” is rotten from its core.
The only question is though, where Armenia’s “ally” stands in all this. Azerbaijan has big brother Turkey and jihadists on its side. At the very least, if Armenia can get Russia to protect Armenia in case Turkey wants to attack Armenia, then Armenia has the capability to engage in military operations against Azerbaijan for its national and future interests.
The Russians will protect Armenia soooooooo well, that they will plunder it at first! I read in the Russian Press( I understand Russian perfectly) a Russian mining company is
planning to sell coals from Donbas( the mining industry is sanctioned there by the EU)
through Artsax(Nagorno Karabakh) to Turkey.
As I said: “PECUNIA NON-NOCET”…”Money does not stink “( in Latin)…this is the Russians Motto.
Turkey does not have the luxury to attack Armenia! Do not forget Turkey is a staunched member of NATO and in case it attacks Armenia, this will anger the other countries of NATO( predominantly Christian, even Orthodox).
You are simply insane. Dirty nukes? Russia would invade Armenia at that point. These are the ravings of a lunatic. I supported the Armenian position but people like you are changing my mind. A concerned American.
@Nick. Your statement should actually be taught in our history books, as an example why we should trust no nation on this planet except ourselves. Our children need to start learning that when outside nations start “condemning” our actions, that is when we know we are doing the right things for ourselves and our future. And that when other nations start “praising” us, we are in deep trouble.
It is precisely people like you that brought us into the mess we are in today, first going through a Genocide, while you knuckleheads “condemned” the Turks, (and of course which led to no consequences to Genocide perpetrators) and now losing a sizeable and immensely important part of our nation, with complete silence from the west, despite the Turks using terrorists, drone attacks on civilians, cluster bombs on civilians, and phosphorus bombs violating tons of international laws, or shall I say “so-called supposed international laws” – laws that apply to Armenians but not Turks. Although you are a random troll on the internet who never expressed any outrage at the actions of the Turks while “supporting Armenia”, your attitude is the exact same as western countries of the past century to the detriment of Armenia. You only show yourself with your “opinion” -get this- when an Armenian position actually expresses an opinion which actually might work and cause damage to the Turkish imperialist terrorist aggression for a change. Let’s tally up the western attitude now then:
Turks came from Asia and raped, pillaged and plundered Armenia?
“It’s sad but let the Turks go”
Turks committed Genocide against Armenia?
“It’s sad but let the Turks go”
Cut up pieces of Armenia and hand to Turks and Azeris?
“It’s sad but let the Turks go”
Invade Armenians who are trying to build a homeland using illegal munitions and terrorists?
“It’s sad but let the Turks go”
An Armenian using the word “nuke”?
“OH NO! WE MUST STOP ARMENIANS IMMEDIATELY!!!!”
Actually while we are on this subject, I am sorry, I take back that Armenia should make a few dirty nukes to use against Azerbaijan and Turkey if need be. My new position is that Armenia needs to tear up the “Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty” and make install some REAL NUCLEAR WARHEADS on the Iskanders.
Now let me guess your next opinion:
“Israel needs them to survive, but not Armenia”… Right, “Nick”?
Putin betrayed you, Armenians! I just listened on http://www.kremlin.ru to his interview with Rosssiya 1 TV Channel.
At the end of the interview, he spoke about the deep historical , cultural, religious, and fraternal relations between the Russians and Armenians during all those centuries since Christianity exists, but on the other side, Putin gave ONLY old, from the Russian Army decommissioned tanks and weapons, because the Armenians, whom he, Putin Aaaaaaaaah, so much LOVES, can not pay for expensive modern Russian weapons.
PECUNIA NON NOCET! …this is Putin’s DEvise in life!
He achieved what he wanted…Russian “mirotvorzui”( peacekeepers with Kalashnikovs!) in the heart of Azerbaijan, so that this country can not apply now for membership in NATO. Putin used the same tactic as in Abkhazia, South Ossetia; Donbas, and Crimea.
In regards of Armenia, he does not give a damn! Talks about the “Dogovor kolektivnoi bezopasnosti”. Aaaaaaaah, of course, he did not violate this contract with Armenia, because Azerbajgan did not attack Armenia proper. If he REALLY LOVES the Armenians, he ought to help them immediately when the war started! Such a hypocrite!
Your comment is unhinged and hard to follow. It is ridden with bizarre conspiracies and utterly useless in any discourse. By the way, Turkey attacked Cyprus in 1974 and “Christian” NATO did nothing to stop it. So much for your Pro-NATO fantasies.
Thank you for this article,
We should all learn from our past and present history. Good leaders are the ones who are Loyal, Honest, Trustful, Truthful, Wise, Intelligent and strong, and their commitment is for the interest of our Hayrik only, and not their pockets or their fan clubs. I am sure every one of us, Armenians every were are sick and disgusted by incompetent and/or corrupt leaders we have seen so far.
Just for a second imagine this outcome.
This cease-fire between Armenia and Azerbaijan leads to real peace. Where the issue of NK is settled and diplomatic relations are established between the two countries. This leads to the Armenian Turkish border being opened. Now imagine that Armenians and Azerbaijan Turks will no longer need to continue arming for a third NK war. Where all three countries can prosper from trade and diplomatic relations.
I know it is a very hard to imagine today, but the region wasted 30 years to find a peace-full settlement for the first NK war, I hope now we will work to create a mechanism for lasting peace in the region and not just a cease-fire agreement. Because only with peace deal where all sides (Armenians and Azerbaijan Turks) grievances are met can we move forward to end this vicious cycle of violence. Or in 30 years, with much more destructive and powerful weapons, a new war might come about.