Armenia’s molybdenum moment

On July 20, 2026, President Donald Trump signed an executive order designed to secure America’s defense supply chains by restricting the acquisition of critical materials from geopolitical adversaries. The order tightens rules on molybdenum, tungsten, tantalum and certain high-performance magnets sourced from China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. For Armenia, this development is not abstract policy from Washington. It is a concrete opportunity that builds directly on the critical minerals framework Armenia signed with the United States just two months earlier — and one that will test Armenia’s relations with Russia. The executive order limits the circumstances under which the U.S. Department of Defense may issue waivers for materials from these “covered nations.” Beginning in January 2027, contractors seeking such waivers must demonstrate exhaustive efforts to find compliant sources and present credible plans to remove restricted materials from their supply chains. It also requires more rigorous mapping of defense-related supply chains and actively encourages the qualification of new domestic and partner-nation sources. In plain terms, Washington is telling its defense industry: Stop relying on adversarial suppliers and start building reliable alternatives. Armenia is well positioned to be one of those alternatives. The Zangezur Copper Molybdenum Combine, which accounted for roughly 2.2% of global molybdenum production in 2025, and the broader reserves in Syunik already make Armenia a meaningful global producer of molybdenum, a metal essential for high-strength alloys used in aerospace, defense and advanced manufacturing. Unlike the covered nations, Armenia faces no statutory prohibition under U.S. law. More importantly, on May 26, 2026, Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio signed the Framework for Securing Supply in the Mining and Processing of Critical Minerals and Rare Earths. That memorandum, signed alongside the Charter on a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and progress on TRIPP, explicitly aims to support the secure supply of critical minerals crucial to the commercial and defense industries of both countries. The July executive order gives that May framework real market force. By significantly tightening the waiver process for Russian or Chinese molybdenum beginning in January 2027, the order creates stronger structural demand for material from partner nations such as Armenia. This is not merely symbolic diplomacy. It opens the door to American investment, technology for modern geological mapping and processing, and the possibility of moving beyond the export of raw concentrates toward higher-value refining and manufacturing inside Armenia itself. Yet this opportunity cannot be separated from the tension it introduces into Armenia’s relations with Russia. Russia is explicitly listed as a covered nation. For years, Russian commercial interests have held significant stakes and influence in Armenian mining. The new U.S. rules, which require detailed supply chain mapping and scrutiny of foreign ownership, control and influence, will make it more difficult for material with substantial Russian involvement to enter American defense supply chains. Moscow is unlikely to view the deepening U.S.-Armenia minerals partnership with indifference. This is not temporary commercial friction; it touches on Russia’s long-standing expectation that Armenia’s economic orientation remain closely aligned with its own. Armenia must therefore manage the shift with care, advancing cooperation with Washington while remaining realistic about possible political or economic responses from Moscow. The strategic implications remain significant. The executive order and the May memorandum together create a powerful incentive for Armenia to accelerate diversification of its mining sector. At the same time, the TRIPP corridor offers a potential westward logistics route that can reduce dependence on traditional northern pathways. Taken together, these developments strengthen the economic foundation of Armenia’s growing partnership with the United States and support the broader national goal of greater resilience after the shocks of 2020 and 2023. Opportunity is not automatic. U.S. defense contractors and regulators will demand transparency, environmental responsibility, and reliable governance. Armenia must continue improving standards, attracting serious private investment and developing domestic processing capacity if it is to convert this opening into lasting jobs, revenue and strategic leverage. Yerevan should move quickly to strengthen ownership transparency and environmental standards in the mining sector so Armenian material can meet the due diligence requirements of U.S. partners. The memorandum signed in May provides the diplomatic framework; the executive order provides the market signal. What remains is disciplined implementation on both sides — and clear-eyed management of the inevitable friction with Russia. Armenia stands at a rare intersection of geology, geography and geopolitics. The United States is actively seeking alternatives to adversarial suppliers of critical materials. Armenia possesses one of those materials in meaningful quantities and has already formalized a partnership to develop it. If Yerevan, the private sector, and the diaspora treat this moment with the seriousness it deserves — through investment, reform, sustained engagement and careful diplomacy — Armenia can turn its mineral resources into a pillar of a more independent and prosperous future. Critical materials markets are global, but the strategic choices are national. Nations that secure reliable partners in an uncertain world gain strength. For Armenia, that partner is now clearly within reach. The path forward requires both ambition and prudence. The views expressed by the author are his own and not those of the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s Office or the California Military Department.

Armenia’s molybdenum moment

How a new U.S. order strengthens Armenia's partnership with Washington

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William Paparian

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William Paparian

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