Since November 2020, the prospects of Armenian-Azerbaijani normalization have been considered a valid possibility, for the first time since the beginning of the first Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) War in the 1990s. The ceasing of Artsakh remained the first and a non-negotiable condition of Azerbaijan to engage in further reconciliation processes, somehow accepted by the Armenian government. After Azerbaijan launched a full-scale military invasion of Artsakh on September 19, it became clear that the fate of Artsakh has been sealed, this way or another.
We have seen the photos of 40,000 people gathered at the airport in Stepanakert, where the Russian peacekeeping mission of Artsakh is based. Some inhabitants of Artsakh will flee if given the opportunity. However, some will choose to stay regardless of the danger. The humanitarian consequences of another border change in the South Caucasus were never considered as a tangible prediction, even though such a scenario was possible, considering the history and existing struggles of Azerbaijani citizens of Armenian origin. In the 21st century, we understand the strategies and practicalities of state-sponsored discrimination and ethnic cleansings much too well. Still, we pretended not to know what will happen to an ethnic minority thrown to the mercy of an oppressive and hatred-driven state.
In 2004, during the NATO training in Budapest, Ramil Safarov, an officer of the Azerbaijani army, broke into the dormitory room of Gurgen Margaryan, an Armenian army lieutenant, and brutally murdered him with an ax. Two years later, he was found guilty of first-degree murder and sentenced to life imprisonment in Hungary. This is not the end of the story, however. Safarov was extradited six years later and welcomed in Baku with honors. He was promoted to the rank of a major, provided with an apartment and compensated with six years back-pay. In Azerbaijan, he rose to the fame of a national hero, with the full support of national political elites.
This story exemplifies the scale of ethnic hatred against Armenians in Azerbaijan better than any report or statistics. These are, as well, telling. According to official Azerbaijani governmental data, there are 30,000 Armenians living in Azerbaijan (excluding the population of Artsakh, usually included as well). However, the European Commission Against Racism and Intolerance (ECRI) has estimated only 700 individuals identifying as Armenian, which counts for less than three-percent of the official numbers. In fact, during six monitoring cycles, the authors of each ECRI report on Azerbaijan devote a separate chapter to Armenians, the only ethnic group residing in the country given a specific focus. Their situation is not only grave, but has also deteriorated over time, as ethnic hatred has intensified over the years and many Armenians attempt to hide their identity, based on which they are deprived of access to pensions, state services and the job market. They live in a country where Armenians are considered the biggest enemies and traitors. Azerbaijani individuals or NGOs assisting Armenians in attempts to exercise their basic rights are reportedly victims of “anonymous threats, defamation campaigns in some media and harassment by some authorities,” according to the ECRI. Human rights activists “working inter alia towards reconciliation with Armenia have been sentenced to heavy prison terms on controversial accusations (…). Political opponents are accused of having Armenian roots or of receiving funds from Armenian sources,” the ECRI says. Both in 2020 and today, Azerbaijani citizens who speak up against aggression are being detained. In Azerbaijan, the word “Armenian” is used as an insult.
As noted by Joe Nerssessian, addressing the international audience, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev states: “‘We don’t have a problem with Armenian people.’ At the same time, while referring to national media, he consequently refers to Armenians as ‘fascist,’ ‘dogs,’ ‘rats,’ ‘barbarians’ and ‘vandals’.” The dehumanizing language of Azerbaijani political elites, an invitation to ethnic-based violence, was largely ignored by leading news outlets and international organizations and rarely mentioned in statements referring to the conflict. Meanwhile, the hate against Armenians in Azerbaijan has been nurtured for the past 30 years. Soon enough, the remaining population of Artsakh will be forced to pledge loyalty to a country where killing an Armenian is a virtue.
The best thing that can happen to them is a subsequent Palestinization of their cause, taken to the extreme. They will live within a de facto occupied territory, with no possibility to safely move or travel to other provinces of Azerbaijan. Armenian-owned businesses will no longer be allowed to operate legally, and Artsakh will quickly become an isolated black-market zone. All state buildings will be seized by the Azeri government—that includes schools, universities and hospitals, which will either be closed, repurposed or taken over by Azerbaijani staff. From that moment, the access to these institutions will be denied to the local population. All regulated professions such as teachers, doctors and police will be purged and adjusted to the Azerbaijani state regulations. As a reminder—Armenians in Azerbaijan have no right to own schools. 30,000 children will have no access to education. At best, they will be forced to attend Azerbaijani schools, facing daily bullying and discrimination. A state the size of Lebanon will become a ghetto. ECRI will write another report during the next monitoring cycle. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan will most likely start the policy of rapid settlement of Azerbaijani citizens in Artsakh. Reclaiming Artsakh will proceed equally on cultural, political, economic and demographic levels. Armenians will lose rights to their property, and their homes will be forcefully seized (this practice already continues, as stated by ECRI reports in 2001 and 2007).
***
This scenario, which only a week ago seemed like the most pessimistic vision of further developments, has quickly become invalid. While I tried to predict the further scope of discrimination, the integration plan of Azerbaijan seems to be limited to the simple annihilation of the entire Artsakh population. The only remaining question is if the subsequent purge of Armenians in Artsakh will be limited to disarmed soldiers, extend to all male inhabitants or the entire population. I see reports of rape and torture committed against the civilian population, including children. Seeing the valid possibility of another Bucha or Srebrenica, I sadly realize that as soon as the whole territory is ceded to Azerbaijani control, there will be no possibility of documenting possible war crimes and holding the perpetrators accountable. No journalist, publicist or social scientist will be allowed to enter without official permission and report on the situation on the ground. The remaining residents of Artsakh will be left alone and subjected to terror. There will be no justice for the dead and no protection for the living.
Karolina Pawłowska
Latest posts by Karolina Pawłowska (see all)
- Integration or annihilation? The fate of the Armenians of Artsakh - September 27, 2023
Be the first to comment