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Haig Kayserian
Haig Kayserian is the Executive Director of the Armenian National Committee of Australia, with a Bachelors in Media & Cultural Studies (Macquarie University) and is currently completing his Masters in Politics & Policy (Deakin University). He is a director at several technology companies based in the US and Australia and is an advisory board member at Armenia’s first technology venture capital firm.
Latest posts by Haig Kayserian (see all)
- Another Way or the Highway - November 16, 2021
- Snap elections are a necessity in post-war Armenia - February 16, 2021
- National Assembly Brawl Exposes the Embarrassing - May 13, 2020
1a- The Block were Seryan Ohanyan is part of, how come he wasn’t opposing to HHK when he was the minister of defense, and yeah about that, where did all the defense money go? Why were we fighting with 80’s weapons during the 4 day war? How could he afford everything he owns (home, cars) with his salary? (That Coalition is flawed to begin with), it’s a battle to grab seats (not worthy)
1b- At this point it’s obvious that Raffi will make a coalition with anyone, ANYONE to get somewhere, can’t help to feel sorry for the man. (Raffi, Levon, Tsarukyan) coalition the last time, it was pathetic. (not worthy)
2- Levon, the man who imprisoned his opposition (Dashnaktsutyun), and later proposed to give up lands, OUR lands, and then stepped down (rightfully) after a couple of years. Now he is coming back to take us to the 90’s? We don’t need fossils, we new, energetic, person and ideas (not worthy)
3- Tsarukyan, … do I need to say more? (not worthy)
4- Paron Nikol Pashinyan, I followed his talks, at various events, the parliament… he talks really well, for the past 5 years I’ve been listening but haven’t seen a single thing, A THING, literally. Didn’t do anything to show he is the man for the job. (not worthy)
Steve. Isn’t this terrible. No ONE left. You didn’t say anything about the ARF who are hoping to do well, but my suspicion is that ARF is not going to do well as well. My conversations with Diaspora Armenians who have recently came back from visits to Armenia it doesn’t look very bright for our beloved party as well.
That is the purpose of the “opposition” parties. Smoke and mirrors. It is to guarantee that the current ruling party stays in place. Sadly there is no viable option offered for the people of Armenia. The Diaspora needs to begin having a say in these elections, if there is hope of salvaging our country surrounded by vultures, waiting for its demise.
A well thought synopsis. A discouraging picture.
Basically recycling the same old characters. No new aspiring personality or vision or a platform that exudes confidence.
For a small country, too many political parties, too many unworthy candidates.
What will most probably happen is the Republican Party will be able to have majority, or form a majority coalition, with a bunch of small meaningless minority parties who will not be united, ineffective and wasteful.
Vart Adjemian
You really don’t have to mention your own allegiance, enough to read this to guess it.
Firstly, let start with the fact that talk is cheap. What is the point of being ideological if you are going to totally ignore your ideology after the election? One bright example is your party of affiliation. Dashnaks love to talk, they criticize the ruling Republican party yet they are always there to form a coalition with them, a coalition with zero impact. A simple question that you might want to ask your ARF comrades is what have they accomplished in the last 10 years through their coalitions? Corruption is rampant. In fact, Armenia is now very close to Azerbaijan on the corruption perception index. Signs of oligarchy are every where, on every corner. Unemployment is skyrocketing and poverty officially more than 30 percent. I would say if these are their accomplishments then they rather do what Hollande did in France, stay away from the elections!
Secondly, being ideological in a country where the electoral system doesn’t work is like being concerned about your cosmetic surgery while your body is fighting cancer. What most of these opposition parties want is to put an end to a corrupt authoritarian oligarchic club which calls itself the Republican party and hijacks every single election creating a shadow of democracy. That is the main reason that many of these parties came together to form blocks ahead of the elections, not thinking about their future plans but simply trying to fight tyranny.
Thirdly, you haven’t done your homework before writing this. Yelk has never announced that they are pro-western. I have seen many of their interviews, what they say is a western-style governing system based on western values. This is categorically different from what you mention in your article. They have clearly stated their policies regarding many of the issues concerning average Armenians e.g. mechanisms to fight corruption, human rights abuses, mandatory retirement plans, etc. One thing that you are not going to see in their announcements is populism. There is nothing wrong with having a military alliance with Russia and fighting corruption through the introduction of western style check and balances mechanisms. Someone mentioned that Nikol Pashinyan hasn’t done a thing, a single thing! In a country where the 3 pillars of the government(legislative, executive and judicial) are all under the direct control of an oligarchs club, you really cannot do much but to be with people and that is what he has done.
Haig, thanks for writing this article. It’s a useful sketch of personalities, facts and opinions. I want to discuss one of those opinions.
The spine of the piece is captured in this early sentence: “In countries like the United States, Canada, Australia, and most of Europe, we are accustomed to an ideological battle between the “right” and the “left” that determines so many of the votes each election.”
I’m familiar with the domestic politics of the United States, Australia and to an extent England, less so Canada and Europe. I could just as easily argue that those states with which I’m familiar exhibit characteristics of one party state rule, as I could argue that there is ideological battles in those states. I would further argue that “we are accustomsed” to the notion of left and right largely because it is perpetuated in those states by established institutions and traditional media. It suits them, allows them to sustain their existing business models or modes of operation.
In the United States for many decades the distinction between Republican and Democrat, for example is perpetuated and kiddled, rarely examined by any established media. Repeat things continually and people might just believe it.
In terms of domestic politics was the Barack Obama administration for example really that different from of George W. Bush? In Australia too the distinctions between the Liberal National coalition and Labor decades ago involved very thin lines. For the last four Prime Ministers it’s mostly been the politics of personality polling for them and their backers, if there is ideology on either side then the rudders need alignment, or perhaps there is no rudder? The fact is ideology does not serve their needs when there are more powerful tools – nationalist symbols, trafficing hope, reviving 1950s images of wholesomeness, fear mongering, more flag waving, inventing notions of us and them and surfing dominent feeds or memes in social media.
Reflecting this reality traditional media has populations dwell on itches from past decades and the notion that politics is just like sport, so it is a question of who do you back.
In this confected environment, contempoary realities are causing the outcomes of surprise election or referendum results, April wars and use of the state aparatus to put down popular protest on Baghramyan Avenue.
To not be the victim of surprises, contemporary reality requires open examination of facts, deeper reading, unlearning, and new learning. This is especially so for virtually failed states such as Armenia, led as it has been now for years with the ARF in coalition with the dominant mobster party, the Republican Party of Armenia.
Ideology is not a term any of the parties use in the United States or Australia. When considering this Oxford Dictionary definition of ideology I can’t think of any synonym or similar term they use often to distinguish themselves: “A system of ideas and ideals, especially one which forms the basis of economic or political theory and policy.”
Further, there’s many topics for battles in those states, not just those of left and right, a fading bifurcation with origins in prior centuries. It sounds stark when expressed in spacial terms (left / right) but it is much more complicated. It’s that complexity that calls for examination for informed policy development.
There is then a present and considerable complexity to address. In Armenia as in the mentioned other states, at its core we have the politics of power for rulers, corporations, oligarchs, parties in power, dominant 1 percenters, controllers of traditional established institutions, major unions and others.
In this era of increased velocity and scope of change I expect many to head headlong into dead ends reading the future based on outmoded sketches of the past. Asking questions and examining the present suggests less of it resembles the recent past, either in Armenia or elsewhere. And, on examining the past I find it to be an unfamiliar landscape as new discoveries are made.
Finally, about the Republican Party of Armenia Wikipedia notes “It has been described by political commentators as essentially lacking political ideology.” An interesting question to ask: What has the ARF achieved by being in coalition sine 2008 with a non-ideological Republican Party?
Thanks again Haig for writing your usefully long piece.
Even with all their faults, both real and percieved, the Hanrapetakan party in Armenia is the ONLY logical/safe choice Armenians have today. The Hanrapetakan party is by far the lesser evil in the country’s decrepit political landscape. That said, the popularity enjoyed by disgusting thugs like Tsarukyan is ample proof that democracy would prove suidical for Armenians. Generally speaking Armenians are too materialistic, too emotional, too arrogant and too politically illiterate to be trused with making serious political choices. For well into the foreseeable future, what Armenia will need is a farsighted, authoritarian government with close ties to Moscow.
The short answer to the question Noric raised: “What has the ARF achieved by being in coalition sine 2008 with a non-ideological Republican Party?” is a few ministerial/government seats, ARF did not have and could not have without coalition with the dominant Republican Party.
ARF had a well publicized coalition with the ruling Republican Party of Armenia and is one of the two parties that presently govern Armenia. Yet, ARF is campaigning against the way Armenia is being governed. I find this situation of “I am with them but I am not” confusing and bewildering.
Am i seeing it wrong?
Garabed, I too find that position bewildering.
Then again, I find bewildering politics in most places, including Armenia. It’s the nature of the beast. For Armenia it bites, because of the nation’s enormous levels of poverty and socio-economic decay.
As elsewhere, the search for answers needs to translate new thinking into public policy. Old thinking is dating quicker than ever.
The chief obstacles for change in Armenia appear to be those with power in the country, followed by Azerbaijan’s war footing.
As regards the forthcoming election and beyond, outdated intellectual frameworks won’t help read contemporary realities. They won’t sharpen the available capacity to make credible predictions which are foundations for the strategic vision meeded across so many policy fronts in Armenia.
Extending on those themes and the topic of Haik’s post, I’m quoting below a critique of policy paking in the West by Paul Ormerod (Link: http://evonomics.com/the-future-of-economics-uses-the-sciiece-of-real-life-social-networks/):
“The differences between the centre-right and centre-left within this model have been of merely second-order importance. Both the main parts of the political spectrum have embraced not only a much greater role for the state than obtained before the second world war, but have shared this same intellectual vision. At heart, from this perspective the world is seen as a machine, admittedly a complicated one, but one that can be controlled with the right pressure on this button, just the right amount of pull on that lever. It is a world in which everything can be quantified and targets can not only be set, they can be achieved thanks to the cleverness of experts. But the world is simply not like this. It is a much more complex, much less controllable place than ‘rational’ planners believe. Policy is very difficult to get right.”
There was a time when I used to justify the situation in Armenia using the same arguments that nowhere in the world democracy is perfect, it needs evolution and the rest of justifications. But I think it is time to stop this nonsense. Indeed, democracy is not perfect. Here in US, politics is the monopoly of 2 major parties. Elsewhere in Europe, non-conventional or non-mainstream political parties find it very difficult to fight the well-established ones. But what is going on in Armenia is a totally different story. People in Armenia find it impossible to change a system which is extremely unpopular, this leads to apathy or radicalism, the consequences of which are either emigration or violence. Poverty is the effect, not the cause. Almost 95 percent of the wealth of the country belongs to a few dozen oligarchs who are members of the ruling party.
I think it is too simplistic to say that major political parties in West are void of any ideology. A simple look at major political parties in US brings to mind several issues of contention. Does this mean that every one in US feels represented in Washington? No, it doesn’t. You will find many who are totally disenchanted with politicians, yet the majority of people see a complex system of governance where the power is divided among many players. If they lose the presidential election, they can hope to win the congress. If they lose the congress, they might win the state. In the last ten years, Serjik with the help of ARF, a party I once had respect for, has created a monster that controls everything, owns everything, wins everything.
No matter whether the opposition is good or bad, if this oligarchs club “wins” more than 50 percent of the vote in the upcoming election, the result will be disastrous for Armenia.