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Michael Mensoian

Michael Mensoian

Michael Mensoian, J.D./Ph.D, is professor emeritus in Middle East and political geography at the University of Massachusetts, Boston, and a retired major in the U.S. army. He writes regularly for the Armenian Weekly.

20 Comments

  1. Other than the hopes/expectations pinned on the ARF at the end of the article, I agree with Professor Mensoian’s thesis. The ARF has flip-flopped during the recent election and has thus been among the first to lose traction with the electorate. Invoking centuries of history doesn’t much help its cause.

  2. The most problematic aspect with Armenians is their failed UNITY, and our defective generic individualism, where because of that we have lost the glory of the past…now that we know, what causing our problems, then we should overcome with our weaknesses, no matter if the leader is Serge or Raffi!! It is time for Armenians to built a new Armenia for new Armenian generation with faith, will, hard work, forgiveness, maturity, with the help of God given brain power, and our natural ability!!

  3. {Can Raffi Hovannisian Lead Our People to ‘The Promised Land’?}

    Surely you jest, Sir.

    Raffi Hovannisian will lead our people, and RoA, and NKR to destruction if God forbid he ever becomes President of RoA.

    The people who have already led our people to the promised land are the same people who created an Independent Armenia, an Independent NKR, and have kept AxeriTatarTurk invaders out our sacred lands for 20+ years.

    The same people who have created more strategic promised land depth for our People than in centuries of our history.
    Is there anything more promising ?

    You Sir, being a US Army Major, must surely appreciate the fact that President Sargsyan was one of the thousands of Armenian patriots who put their lives on the line to create the Promised Land that is a united RoA & NKR.

    Where was Barevamessiah Raffi Hovannisian in the Fall of 1992 while Serj Sargsyan and thousands of other Armenian patriots were in a life-or-death fight against the AxeriTatarTurk invaders and their hired mercenaries ?

    Where was he hiding while an Armenian Promised Land was being created at cost of the lives and blood of countless Armenian men and women ?

    • Avery,

      Regardless of heorism on the battlefield, there are serious issues, internal threats, which the current president is not addressing very well, if at all. There is dissatisfaction in Armenia. It’s not just the military and weapons upgrades that will secure Armenia. You keep ignoring these. Out of fear of external threats, you want everyone to close their eyes to the internal issues which hold back Armenia. An increase in the Armenian population as well as economic and industrial growth (ie tax paying base) is just as important as weapons.

      RH will not become president. Serj will be in power for the next 5 years. So all these issues are on his plate and he must improve the economic and corruption levels in the country.

      It’s ok to be critical of Serj Avery, even if you yourself were not in the Karabakh war. That’s what democracy is about.

  4. Let´s talk high politics now.Right now this minute or hour(s) Kerry-Kerri is in Istanbulla and w/foreign Ministre of great Turkey celebrating the peace achieved betwee latter and Israel.Also discussing Syria-help great Turkey has,is extending to rebels in Syria etc.,
    Not a word about the other issues,such as the Kurdish and even worse a THRON ON the side of great turkey those Ermenis.Indeed at the back of his mind Kerri knows April 24 is drawing close and the Ocalan pocalan is aconcoccted up coctail for those who believe in such absurdities..
    Iran? not even a hint about that either.For they both know full well there is no way they can penetrate into that area..because of the ages old Treaty of Turkmenchai with Russia that is a nightmare for Fox face-as Dr. Henry Astardjian has described the FM of great Turkey.
    So what has been achieved so far. the rapproachement of israel w/great Turkey? or what?
    As to Raffi as president that Avery is fast working on to dissuade all that he is not a fit person for that, he errs…
    Raffi as a much more prepared person than those on the scen can wkith help of all contenders and intellectuals,politicians of RA accomplish what the country lacks. Real or quassi real democracy or on the way to achieve same.
    Yes he is not alone avery.ARF and Ramgavarans are also there behind him.If they don´t show up or do so meekly it is because they wish to avoid clashes amongst the hundreds of thousands of mal content and those who are content as the crumbs passed on to them as bakshish are as yet followers of the 20 plus 70 year Monopolistic and clanish system.or at most what they have from old Pioneragan scholas..Schoolings…
    We need fresh people on the NEW HAYASTAN ARMENIAN SCENE.Plenty of young men and women that have studied hard and are there to make an efflort. So far denied it and most have been leaving or about to leave our Homeland.what I´m saying is that it WAS VERY EARLY TO GUIDE RA VIA THE SO CALLED FREE MARKET ECONMOMY TO WHAT IT IS NOW .The wild one of same..ARF should strike up whatever partnership it can with the others that are aware of the awfull situation and guide the country to a Sweden-Denmakr Switzerland type one not the Polaristic one it is in now!!!!
    I have time and again stressed the IMPORTANCE OF HAVING 5 PERMANENT DELEGATES from our 5 main continent community countries in the Ministry of Diaspora that the Diaspora helped create!!!for without working along with Haireni people ,by sporadic visits of the Minsitre to a community country and formalkities nothing real has been ahieved and will not.
    We need to wrok from inside our HOMELAND.And what better way than through the official channel that is the Diaspora Minsitry!!!
    anyone listening?
    hasgcoghin Barev.
    oh to add that avery don´t be scared Raffi will grant that those who have fought on the front line can be well attended to.Thousands of them ,not just a few previliged ones…capiche?
    he can indeed place able and merited people on positions that can help RA.

  5. This is Armenia for you today under reign of corrupt and fraudulent serzh and his RPA party oligarchic thugs.

    Unless and until they are all thrown out by the people and put on trial for their criminal activities nothing can and will change in Armenia.

    The west and Russia want such a corrupt leader to stay in power as it suits all their designs and agendas in the region,namely concessions on Artsakh issue,the treacherous Turkish protocols to stay on the table as this suits the USA.

    Russia to have a monopoly on Armenia’s mines and other minerals,keep its military base there,in other words we have allowed ourselves to become the tools of these foreign powers and criminal serzh is their executioner.

    I haven’t even touched on the subject of the rampant corruption in all spheres of this regime,injustices on a daily basis,terror, where people loose their lives and properties,fraud in all elections to date,and the net result has been that people are leaving Armenia by the thousands, only in the last 5 years under corrupt serzh over 200000 people have voted with their feet and left Armenia so far this year 21000 have left the country.

    When you have a corrupt regime serving the interests of their Oligarch friends this is what you get, a country based on state terror, fraud,corruption,thuggery,injustice,no wander people are leaving the country in their thousands,soon there wont be many left apart from the pensioners.

    This is serzh’s secure Armenia for you where by every oligarch friend of his has a licence to kill,commit fraud,steal from the state,get elected through rigging in any position,this is secure Armenia for you.

    At this rate there wont be many left in Armenia in the coming years thanks to this corrupt and criminal regime.

    There is no morality left in Armenia under this corrupt and criminal regime.

    This is treachery at the highest level.

    What a disgrace and disaster to our country and nation.

    I hope Raffi succeeds.

  6. Addendum,
    This seems to be the last chance for Armenia to switch over to a Quassi Democratic rule. If stopped by the present ISHKHANIUTYUN(word,totally inappropriate BTW( for the time is long past when we ostentated ISHKHANS AND BDESHKHS….however the mass of our people in RA is thus mis guided to think that those upfront are PRINCES.We must begin to educate them and(strangely even an educated class—-) that We have Garavarutyun(Government) and sometiems Bedutyun might be used instead of the ISHKHAN…for the popular wording so to speak..but NO MORE ISHKHANS..which also bodes…Oligarks those in the Provinces by uttering Ishkhanutyun ,immediately think of those on top of them , the Ishkhans..
    Well, now back to square One. My take on the introduction of Demcracy in RA:_
    1. I understand that unless the VOICE of the people is left free to express and elect / VOTE for his her chosen and preferrable person whether in Parliament or as head of Governmment,then we are not on the road to DEMOCRACY.
    2. Is there ,rather does a MECHANISM EXIST IN ANY COUNTRY OF THE WESTERN HEMIPHERIC AREA THAT can boast of having that mechanism??? I believe not, i can prove that later this evening that even the best so called Democracy of the Western hemispheric area DOES NOT AS YET HAVE OR HAS DEVELOPED THAT MECHANISM..
    Au revoir now ,untill later this p.m.

  7. YHE ARTICLE BY MENZOIAN IS THOUGHT PROVOKING.AS TO RAFFI HOVANISSIAN’S INTEGRITY,CAPABILITY AND FERVOR FOR A JUST ARMENIA CANNOT BE QUESTIONED.THE REFORM MOVEMENT WILL ONLY BE ACHEIVED BY GRADUALISM.PERSISTENCE AND HARD WORK. I MUST SAY ILOVE RAFFI’S ENTHUSIASM.

  8. I wish success for the citizens of Armenia. I wish the best for Raffi Hovanissian who I know has great love for his country and it’s people. But I object to calling Raffi a Messiah. He is a man like any of us. He has risen to the challenge of becoming a champion of democracy and justice at a time when the common Armenian citizen desperately needs such an inspiring leader. I applaud him for this dedication and vision. But he alone can not save the nation. Every Armenian needs to do his part. As for taking Armenians to the promised land—-we are already there. Raffi can remind Armenians of their rights and the strength they have in unity, but only a ground swell of commitment to ‘growing’ the nation will save us. The question is “Will Armenians take control of their destiny or let despair and apathy overwhelm the natural Armenian inclination to adapt and survive—if not thrive.

  9. Raffi is a great guy but he has to perform magic to get the Russian-Armenian oligarchs to change their corrupt ways. Russian-Armenians don’t want to let diaspora Armenians have any voice in their politics because they want to steal all the resources and not have anyone criticize them. The best thing for Raffi to do is to convice the Armenian church to sell the Armenian quarter to the Jews in exchange for Israeli weapons for Armenia .

    • John,

      You sound like a troll. Typical Turkish tactic is to set Armenians against one another, which is what your asinine post is attempting to do.

  10. Dear Armenian Friends, it makes me sad to see you all fighting among yourselves. The fact is that both Raffi and Serzh are Armenian patriots. Each of them has a vision of how to lead Armenia forward; each of them has a different background and approach. This is indeed a difficult moment for the Republic and for the diaspora, but please, make the best of it and try to find a way forward that preserves Armenia’s security and allows for healthy growth. Compromise is difficult, but it seems to me to be essential for Armenia right now.

  11. Avery,
    As I have mentioned earlier in the pages of AW, I appreciate your firm stand against Azeri and Turk intruders, but on internal politics of Armenia I find it a pity that you prefer to be led by an illusion, that because Sarkissian fought in the Karabakh war he is thus perfectly qualified to lead the country out of the present economic and social malaise. It is a well-known fact that in countries which fought a war or went through a revolution the generation of leaders who come to power after the war or the revolution tend to think that they own the land and they are entitled to keep it in their hold forever. Whereas the times change and these leaders become in time rather an impediment to the much needed change in the society. It may seem paradoxical, but that’s what we have got now with the present oligarches represented by Republican Party of Armenia.
    John m
    I agree with the first part of you comment about the position of the indigenous “Russian-Armenian” leaders vis-a-viz Raffi Hovanissian, a Diasporan. But the fact that close to 40% of the voters supported Raffi, a candid outsider (miamid akhparik), should speak volumes. Raffi has brought some positive novelties in the political life of Armenia, but he has to use better tactics to reap better results from his de facto victory.

    • Arshag:

      You and I can debate who harbors more illusion endlessly. But let me present some facts, and ask you to evaluate them.
      You write: {“but he has to use better tactics to reap better results from his de facto victory.”}
      What de facto victory ? Based on what ? What did he win ? There is no such thing as de facto or de jure election victory: you either win an election or you lose it.
      You constantly refer to {“close to 40% of the voters supported Raffi,…”}
      First, Raffi Hovannisian got 36.75%: writing “close to 40%” attempts to create the illusion that RH got more than he actually did.
      Pres Sargsyan got 58.64%: but I do not write “close to 60% of the voters supported Sargsyan.”

      The assertion that 37% who voted against Sargsyan supported RH is not backed by available empirical data.
      What empirical data ?
      – Heritage got only 3.8% in 2012 Parliamentary election.
      – Heritage _lost_ 2 seats: went from 7 down to 5: hardly a sign of a popular party or movement.
      – Compare those percentages to what PAP got and ANC got in previous elections.
      – Prior to the election RH was polling average of 20% (..of decided voters who said they’d vote for RH)
      – Prior to the election Sargsyan was polling average 66%
      – In all of RH’s public meetings no more than about 5,000 show up.
      – In the April 9 protest there were only about 8,000 (by Heritage estimates, btw)
      – Compare to LTP in 2008 (estimated 100,000).
      I assert that 37% voted against the incumbent and not necessarily for the challenger based on the above data.
      Please refute the numbers above, if you can, and present empirical data to substantiate your argument that 37% _support_ RH.

      Regarding: {… that Sarkissian fought in the Karabakh war he is thus perfectly qualified to lead the country out of the present economic and social malaise.”}
      I don’t know where you got that idea: I do not think Pres Sargsyan is perfectly qualified and have never written a post asserting that.
      I argue that Raffi Hovannisian is perfectly Unqualified to lead RoA. Not only that, but I assert his erratic behaviour and impulsive actions will plunge Armenia and NKR into an unnecessary war and chaos, and set back progress by 10 years at least.
      President Sargsyan is not a great President, but right now he is the best of the lot. He has made lots of mistakes, but he is learning from his mistakes and getting better.
      He is not perfect, he is not great, he is just good enough: nothing more, nothing less. Everybody else is lousy, or worse.
      I’d rather Sargsyan maintain the balanced course for another 5 years. So do 58.64% of Armenia’s electorate. Which you, Arshag, do not accept, as far as I remember.

      People in the Hovannisian camp belittle President Sargsyan’s military service, because their candidate avoided participating in the war.
      Sargsyan being a commander in a real war of survival shows his mettle and ability to function and make decisions in difficult and unpredictable situations.
      Was he the greatest commander of NKR war ? Of course not. I can list dozens much better than him, including his current DM, General Seyran Ohanyan.
      But he served as commander, chairman of defense committee, as interior minister, as defense minister, as president: so has a track record of service.
      Does not make him a great economist, or an expert in social matters: but he is a competent, mature, levelheaded leader.
      He has also made many interior policy and foreign policy mistakes: most leaders of most countries do.

      On your side of the isle, there is nothing in Hovannisian’s track record to indicate he can lead a nation. On the contrary, his track record indicates an unreliable, unpredictable, mercurial, impulsive, unprincipled individual.
      He is a charismatic speaker and knows all the right buttons to push in a crowd: I have seen that behaviour in a lot of politicians over many years
      It is pure demagoguery. RH has been bloviating about his ‘plan’ for weeks: where is it ?
      Has anyone seen it ?
      Who are the ones who are actually led by illusions ?

  12. First of all let me put a fdew things in perspective and throw lihgt on issues that are at stake.
    Indeed Ambassador Evans is right in asserting that the tiems are for compromise.Especially as rgds, pres.Serge Sargsyan and contendors.Raffi is a special kind of contendor.He is determined to press FWD-as he says now and then.B ut if things change so rapidly and unexpectedly as today it happened
    All of a sudden LTP has emerged from a political siesta(shall we say) and is now on the political scene of RA with something up his sleeve,that few know anything about it.For he is that kind.
    Raffi may as yet have to contend with this new phenomenae….
    And very stragely two important political parties have joined up with him.Especially the ARF.Latter, up till now kept a low profile as to joining with Raffi and appeared onc e or twice briefly on the scne then pulled the disappearing act.NOW though through their bureau chief-gtoday-anouncing that they will joing with LTPs new polioticla party of Congress,though despite difference in ideology,etc.This bodes bad.No, not only for RAFFI the lone crusader, but for all armenidad!!!! for this man is the same that had Raffi as his FM and when Raffi the first time or the 2nd time ,went on a hunger striket did not condescend to come and say hello to him. Secondly MOST ASTONISHING!!! after during his tenure he had banished from his homeland a Tashnag chieftain,Hrair Maroukian(that no Armenian pres. should do,he could have banished hinm to a far flung village or township within RA, but not chuck him out of his land.For the patria,the homeland is not anyone´s MONOPOLY…I am no Tashnag but I am sahying the truth.And when Head of the Armenian church the Katholicos went to his home he would not let him into his house.Shame on a man like that…and though he during the time that he was in trouble asked the Tashnags to render him a hand.latter refused to tdo so,very naturally but courteously.And now all of a sudden the ARF prestigious 122 yr old political party is forgetting the aforementioned adn goes to join up with him to topple a mna that he himself brought to power…this is known to all.I shall cut it short.Let´s see what´s next on the Armenian political scene.A fiasco.I´D SAY.mY VIEWPOINT IS AS FOLLOWS:
    1.sERGE sARGSYAN the presiding head of state should reshuffle his cabinet immediately.
    2. Oskanian could be a good mayor of Yerevan(what he wishes to be 9
    2. Raffi as Premier(Prime Minister,placed there by Sderge Sargsyan himself. like it was done in Georgia….
    3.the a few other ex candidates like Hairikian to a Ministry,say interior, Bagratian to another and a host of others that were neglected.Thus he can stop LTP doing real harm to Armenia.For the man is there to do soemthing rash,I´d think.
    Things that are now emerginv like the person who DIRECTED THE FALL OF SHOUSHI AND AGDAM WAS GENERAL OF THE EX SOVIET ARMY ARKADY TER TADEVOSIAN.HE DECLARED A FEW WEEKS BACK VERY SERIOJULSY THAT WHEN HE consulted with LTP for agreement to take those two cities, LTP had ansewred¨You are 3 headed..) Yereg glukh ounek…to dare sucha thing.the genral nonetheless proceeded and silenced the enemy bombardment from Agdam and Shoushi over to Stepanaket and took those two cities from enemy.LTP is no doubt a learned man,good for Matenadaran but not a General like arkady.BTW.Avery ther were many Jogads and many leaders of these.But a ex soviet army General is DIFFERENT…has earned the title by proving his capabilties and should be held in honour by us,all.Plus all the fighters there…

    w

  13. Dear Mr. Hovannisian,

    You are a brave person to put such a fight to demonstrate the discontent of the Armenian people. The elections are over and we have now a President, should he be a legitimate representative of the people or not, he is now holding the highest office in Armenia. It is very unlikely that he would step down. For now and for the future, what will serve the country most is if you return back to parliament and continue to lead the opposition. If the opposition is organized and prepared, I have no doubt that in the next election, the opposition will form the next government of Armenia. Unfortunately and sometimes sadly, in countries like Armenia where the culture of democracy is still in its infancy, waiting for one more term to be elected by the people is not a long time to wait.
    All the power to you Rafffi.

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