Policy Forum Armenia (PFA) recently announced the publication of a Special Report on “Armenia: Averting an Economic Catastrophe.”
The report is the loudest warning to date issued to the people of Armenia, the diaspora, and other stakeholders about the economic disaster in the making in the country. Its objective is to provide an assessment of policies that have driven Armenia to where it is now and point out the signs of more trouble to come. The report warns that unless drastic changes in the direction of economic policy are carried out within the next three years, Armenia will be forced to undergo a large and painful devaluation of its currency, the dram, and an external sovereign debt restructuring or default.
“The country’s political leadership needs to fully internalize these problems and related risks and address them expeditiously,” the report states. “So far it appears that the lessons of 2009 have largely been wasted and no significant change in policy direction was pursued, which may have better prepared Armenia for what is likely to come next. Instead, the elements of the same crony capitalist practices—where a select few have used their disproportionate access to power and influence over economic decision-making for their personal gain—have been reinforced, at the expense of growth, public health, education, and national security. This is not only immoral but in many ways also illegal and needs to change. Armenia’s window of opportunity to build a viable economy and address its severe social and demographic problems is closing rapidly.”
The report offers a detailed set of recommendations to help overcome the severe short- and medium-term problems faced by the economy. Important among them is the formation of a legitimate authority to oversee the new policy course on behalf of the people of Armenia. The report states that the situation requires a true government of national unity that would lay out a workable agenda and reach out to all constructive forces in Armenia and the diaspora. These efforts would require adequate professional skills but also the support of a truly national and clean political leadership to be successful.
Policy Forum Armenia is an independent professional non-profit association aimed at strengthening discourse on Armenia’s economic development and national security, and through that helping to shape public policy in Armenia. This and other PFA reports, which provide assessments of critical developments taking place in Armenia and the diaspora, are available at www.pf-armenia.org/reports.
No really? You mean uneducated thugs controlling the lives and territory of a nation that saw 1/3 of it population fleeing its own oppression, rigged elections and mafia style justice is eventually going to ruin the country?
The diaspora needs to stop coddling Armenian leaders and make it abundantly clear that the diaspora is unified in ridding the oligarch theft, thug system currently in place. And will work tirelessly to end it..
John:
‘show me the money”, or “where is the beef ?”: show me evidence that 1/3 of the population has “fled” its own, quote “oppression”.
I think our govt is tooooo comfortable because there is no pressure from DIaspora and no punishment for their wrong doings.. so few selected took the law into the their own hands and continue to do whatever they please…
It is unfortunate…
Avery jan- i know slew of people migrated from Armenia in the early 1990s… but I don’t know the exact number..
Any idea how many did leave Armenia in the last decade???
Gayane
Gayane,
There is no doubt people left Armenia permanently: no doubt about it.
I have never said there was no emigration.
But I have not seen proof of 2 million, or 1 million, or 700,000 permanent emigrants. So far people seem to be repeating the same numbers as if it is real.
Maybe it is: but I am not just going to take someone’s word for it.
If I see evidence to the contrary, I will change my mind.
But so far, have not seen it.
I posted this in another thread (the Army thread):
{“Latest 2011 census RoA Gov figures are as follows:
RoA Population 3,285,000
In country 2,871,000
Out of Country 430,000 (13%) (probably mostly in Russia)
Permanently left Armenia since 2001: 173,000.
( Note: up to 2 million Azeris (20%) are out of the country: working and living in Russia)
Not too great, but not a disaster either: nothing like what has been popularly depicted and believed..
Numbers are probably fudged a little, but I don’t see how the claims that 1-2 million Armenians have left Armenia since Independence is plausible.”}
BTW: Note that Artsakh’s 140,000 or so is not included in RoA census.
I did a quick sanity check on those RoA numbers based on numbers of births in 2011, 3rd party sources, etc and the Gov numbers are not out whack. (Unless they completely lied about number of births in 2011)
I will do some other sanity checking based on other public numbers. See if numbers jibe.
Yes.. I did see that Avery jan.. Thanks…
I believe, no doubt people in many numbers left the country and for very obvious reasons.. now to put a true number to all that removed themselves from our soil is helpful but it does not change the fact that people want to leave the country and many already did… how do we stop that from happening??? how do we create a synergy between govt and people so that not only we have people wanting to stay but also people frm Diaspora wanting to come home… ???
Any one person leaving our country is hurtful.. we don’t have that many in Armenia so losing 10 or 1,000 or a million is pretty much the same.. Armenia can’t afford losing any more Armenians.. but that is just wishful thinking..i know..maybe soon the tide will change.. who knows??
Gayane
John-jan, define “the diaspora” for me please. I’m sure you are not talking on my behalf. But maybe your opinion represents a minority of some sort – tell us more about your “diaspora.”
Most of the “thugs” usually criticized here actually fought in the War for Liberation and WON!
John, “the diaspora leadership is not coddling Armenian government”, but I think “right or wrong” diaspora leadership is primarily engaged in the main war against Turkish denial of Armenian Genocide, without any resources left to fight oligarchy, corruption and thug mentality of Armenian government.
One explanation: I call ‘diaspora’ those Armenians who are descendants of Armenian Genocide survivors, and those who were not born in Armenia. The reminders; are Armenian migrants.
Mind you, Hairenakitz,
I, and hundreds of thousands of other Armenians do not fit your narrow definition of diaspora. “Meds Yeghern” survivors were born everywhere, because, for one thing, the Genocide continued till 1923 and far away from Western Armenia, unlike many sources would tell you. While you are right about the rest, who’s fighting “oligarchy, corruption and thug mentality of !THE AMERICAN! government”?
@ voskanapat
My reply was not intended to answer your question, which was posted simultaneously to yours.
But having read your reply, I wonder whom you really call ‘Diaspora’ Armenian?
From Wikipedia:
A diaspora (from Greek διασπορά, “scattering, dispersion”)[1] is “the movement, migration, or scattering of people away from an established or ancestral homeland”[2] or “people dispersed by whatever cause to more than one location”,[3] or “people settled far from their ancestral homelands”.[2]
My explanation was very brief, and right differentiation between those who migrated before Armenia’s independence. Those who maintained their culture and struggle on other lands, prior to Genocide (such as 450 years of Persian Armenian history from forced migration till today), including those who were settled throughout the world prior, during and after Genocide before Armenia’s independence, from those recent economical/political migrants from Armenia, now part of Diaspora force.
Thus far, nothing which this think tank has predicted about Armenia in their previous reports has come to fruition. Since its inception, PFA has been proclaiming a coming catastrophe to anyone who will listen.
AR do you know if they are funded by the West, or live off of individual donations ?
The 2009 UNDP-commissioned National Human Development Report, entitled “Migration and Human Development: Opportunities and Challenges”, suggests that an estimated 700,000-1,300,000 people have emigrated from Armenia since 1991. An excerpt from the Report: “During the last two decades Armenia saw unprecedented high rates and particular quality of migration flows, which grew into challenges that alarmingly affect different aspects of our life.” — Armen Gevorgyan, Minister of Territorial Administration of Armenia.
OK here is the report you referenced.
http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_2009_EN_Complete.pdf
I cannot find – “suggests that an estimated 700,000-1,300,000 people have emigrated from Armenia since 1991. ” – anywhere in that report.
Show me where it’s at.
I wonder who stands behind PFA?
Wow.. very appropriate to write this article because it came out just in time some of us were having a discussion about this on another thread..
G
Here’s the correct link to National Human Development Report 2009 ARMENIA: http://europeandcis.undp.org/home/show/87B390CE-F203-1EE9-B95DF29A79F6080C
Scroll down to p. 19 for the estimate 700,000-1,300,000.
@ Serko,
Thanks for the link.
And that was an alarm bell back in 2009.
I wonder, if nothing has been done by Armenian government (beside thuggery) during last 3 years to reverse the situation, what are the immediate actions to be taken by diaspora leadership, now!
Does our diaspora have any other aim than just AG recognition?
OK: I see the citation:
{ According to the estimates
of experts, 700,000-1,300,000 people (22-40% of Armenia’s 2008 nominal population) left
Armenia and settled abroad during 1990-2005 alone.2} {numeral 2 is the reference}
They got that number from another document: {2 OSCE and Advanced Social Technologies, Labour Emigration from Armenia during 2002-2005, joint survey.}
Next, I need to find that document and verify the source and methodology of estimation.
NOTE: 700,000 – 1,300,000 estimate range itself is suspect.
How can you trust an estimate that has that kind wide error margin ?
Diaspora does have other aim than “JUST” AG recognition.. and AG recognition is not just AG recognition.. AG recognition is a must…
DIaspora can do only so much.. We are not super robots that can make things right everywhere.. if our govt does not want our help and reluctantly reaches out for advice/direction, then what do you expect Diaspora to do NOW.. as you so graciously suggested..
What are YOU suggesting we do Hairenakitz… please go ahead…don’t let us stop you.. share and maybe we can sit down and talk this over..
but then again, from the fiasco you created on another thread, i have a feeling this may not be the best request.. but I am willing to give you the benefit of the doubt.. for now!!!!!!!!
Gayane
How funny couple of people are in this forum!
Can you all see who is talking about ‘fiasco’? LOL…
For them short sightedness has no limit… after all!
Naturally these are people who contradict their own words, and yet they can’t see what’s wrong with their attitude.
You will not stop anyone, nor anyone can stop you from posting irrational and unbalanced replies to comments.
Against your offer, after your prior ‘Fiasco’, I’m not really willing to give you any benefit of doubt.
Does our diaspora have any other aim than just AG recognition?
Was a question directed to ‘certain’ diaspora members like you… and your answer confirmed my intentional question! Spot on!
It’s obvious some creatures, know better their own attitudes, than others!
The good news is that, at least they agreed on that!
Being philosophical about his/her own mediocrities is not good virtue, at all!
Unless the Armenian government changes it’s policies and increases enforcement of those policies and the people change their attitudes of entitlement & work, I’m afraid that no matter what the Diaspora does, it just won’t matter. There aren’t any industries (employment opportunities). Most families rely on money sent from abroad to survive.
Armenia was very high on the list of countries with corruption. The backwards thinking & mindset has to change. Maybe start with infiltrating the media with a campaign and start introducing civilized TV programing. Cause God knows that a whole lot of non-senses TV is watched in Armenia. And the backward mindset must go to realize any results.
Gayane:
Different subject from this thread, but you will understand.
In the original Star Trek series, there was an episode about a creature that derived sustenance and energy from conflict. It transported Captain Kirk’s crew and Klingons into the same starship. The more they fought amongst themselves, the more energy the creature derived and promoted more conflict
Eventually the crews realized what was going on. They stopped. They ignored all attempts of the creature to get the conflict going again.
Deprived of energy and sustenance, the creature left the starship.
Avery jan.. no need to provide more.. I got you 100%.. :)
well, sure, there should be no conflict, no social commotion, no expression of outrage, no civil action. why won’t the disgruntled people just shut the h*** up and emigrate… or die out
my post was not in reference to Armenia or discussions in this thread about Armenia: there is a background to my post.
you are not familiar with it.
it was not in reference to anything you posted.
Serko jan.. I can assure you (if you were replying to what Avery wrote) Avery’s post about the Star Trek story was directed to me and I know exactly what he is talking about.. it is an internal thing..:) and it has nothing to do with what we say here.. nor directed to you or me or people like us.. hopefully you will believe me..:)
Thank you
@ Serko,
Those you mentioned; are people who are living their own Star Trek, they have no connections with realities in Armenia, nor they have any abilty to comprehend your point!
Armenia is run by a bunch of criminal oligarchs. Putting our head in the sand won’t solve this problem. And if this corruption and migration is not corrected soon then bye bye Armenia. That’s the truth whether some of you of this forum like it or not!!
AraK.. it is very obvious that very few think what is happening in Armenia is the absolute glory and refuse to acknowledge the truth and the ugly truth in that matter.. they believe speaking out about the wrong doings and plain wrongs that is done in our country is not necessary.. they label us as people of no heart and Dr. Scrooge or Grinch..however, they fail to see that having it bottled up inside and not speaking about it to clear the air may create even more wrong doings.. in addition, nothing will ever change because the same criminal oligarchs you and I and many know very well will continue their partying and having a good ol times because they know people won’t speak up about their crminals acts.. we are brewing even more wrong doing by not speaking out.. but then again that is just me.. if you ask few on these pages, they will disagree.. 100%…
“Next, I need to find that document and verify the source and methodology of estimation.” (from my Feb 13 post above)
{OSCE and Advanced Social Technologies, Labour Emigration from Armenia during 2002-2005,}
http://www.osce.org/hy/yerevan/18226
here is the title:
{9 February 2006 This survey, commissioned by the OSCE Office in Yerevan and implemented by NGO Advanced Social Technologies, with UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office funding, studies the current migration situation and trends in Armenia.}
Labor Migration from Armenia in 2002-2005: A Sociological Survey of Households (hy)
And here is the Conclusion Chapter:
“Labor Migration from Armenia in 2002-2005: A Sociological Survey of Households – Chapter: Summary of findings (hy)”
http://www.osce.org/hy/yerevan/18242 (in Armenian)
The only large figure they have is this (translated from Armenian):
The absolute number of migration numbers 2002-2005 is 92,000-118,000 men and 11,300-22,300 women.
So even at the maximum of the range you have 140,300 labor migrants.
My CONCLUSION
The study http://europeandcis.undp.org/home/show/87B390CE-F203-1EE9-B95DF29A79F6080C
Writes this:
{ According to the estimates
of experts, 700,000-1,300,000 people (22-40% of Armenia’s 2008 nominal population) left
Armenia and settled abroad during 1990-2005 alone.2} {numeral 2 is the reference}
See Page 19 of that document. Also see Reference #2 under page 19.
They got that number from another document: {2 OSCE and Advanced Social Technologies, Labour Emigration from Armenia during 2002-2005, joint survey.}
Link to the Armenian language document is above.
The mythical figure “700,000-1,300,000” that they cited in their document referencing another document is nowhere to be found in the document they cited.
So it not real. It is made up.
Again: “show me the money”, or “where is the beef ?”: show me evidence that 1/3 of the population has “fled” its own, quote “oppression”.
Open letter to the Editor of Armenian Weekly:
I admire your editorial judgement and open mindedness in allowing an open and uncensored flow of comments. Some are indeed contructive and add value to the contents of the article in question, the dialogue and the thought process, but sadly quite a few of them are either irrelevant or personal criticisms or attacks on other commentators. It is becoming tiresome and boring.
I don’t know who they are, and I am confused in determining what they believe in or not, but there are a handful of commentators who seem to feel that they have to submit a comment on each article that appears, and then attack whoever disagrees with them. Everyone is entitled to his/her opinion; but once expressed it should be enough.
I have a simple proposal. As you have the capability to “Moderate Comments”,
you should allow a miaximum of two comments per person. That should be more than enough and adequate to express an opinion about the article.
This specific article was written by the Armenian Weekly staff. I am confident that they did their homework and research in putting the article together. The commentators by attacking each other, are also unknowingly attacking the integrity of the AW staff who published the article.
Free press is admiradable but cannot be abusive or derogatory.
Vart Adjemian
I think what Armenia has to go through is rewriting its constitution and importantly a strong organization has to be established to make this happen so then the branches that represent the Gov’t in Armenia wont have total control.