Data: Turkey’s Threats of Retaliation Are Hollow

Trade analysis shows Turkey expands trade with countries after they recognize the Armenian Genocide

Trade analysis shows Turkey expands trade with countries after they recognize the Armenian Genocide.

WASHINGTON—International trade data illustrate an unmistakable trend of steadily increasing trade between Turkey and countries that have recognized the Armenian Genocide, despite Ankara’s highly vocal and frequently angry threats to retaliate economically against governments for formally condemning this crime against humanity, reported the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA).

The trade statistics, drawn from the Organization for Economic Development, show that 10 of the advanced countries that have recognized the Armenian Genocide have experienced growth in bilateral trade with Turkey. At the high end of the range are Russia, which has witnessed a 912 percent increase in trade with Turkey since its 1995 recognition, and Greece (399 percent since 1996), Slovakia (298 percent since 2004), France (257 percent since 2001), Belgium (174 percent since 1998), and Canada (148 percent since 2004).

“Over the past several decades, Turkey has established a predictable pattern in the weeks leading up to the consideration by other countries of the recognition of the Armenian Genocide, of threatening to fundamentally downgrade its ties with the government in question, including through the imposition of far-reaching economic sanctions,” said ANCA Executive Director Aram Hamparian. “A review of publicly available trade statistics demonstrates that Turkey, for all its bluster, also has an equally consistent pattern of quickly setting aside these threats and returning to a business as usual relationship with the countries that they were only recently publicly demonizing.”

Copies of these trade charts have been widely circulated to Congressional offices, agencies of the federal government, and to officials representing a broad cross-section of the Washington foreign policy community.

To view the full set of trade charts, click here.

6 Comments

  1. This survey or data, whatever you call it, reflects nothing related to genocide recognition. Besides, it illustrates the fact that Turkish economy is getting stronger with a rising acceleration.

  2. I agree, these histrionics are just that. Threats are hollow. In time they will hopefully learn to shrug their shoulders, but I am not holding my breath, these Turks are an emotional bunch!

  3. This actually shows the opposite. Switzerland is the only country to have criminalized denying the Armenian Genocide and they have significantly less trade growth than other countries.

    • Switzerland is not the only country. Slovakia is the second country to criminalize denial of the Armenian Genocide and hopefully France will be the third.

  4. Lies, lies and statistics. Whoever wrote this article has never heard of statistical normalization.

    Since Turkish economy has been growing at a world-record rate since the beginning of the century, all their international trade is bound to explode, regardless of the political climate. These countries’ slices might actually be getting smaller. It is just that the pie is getting bigger.

    Also, ever heard of inflation?

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